Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Akrasia

dogbert27 wrote: »

They left last year. Before Brexit kicked in on January 01st.

They now will need a working visa with a minimum salary of 23,000 pounds.

The minimum wage in the UK of about 8 pounds an hour is probably what these workers were receiving or an annual salary of less than 16,000 pounds.

Employers will have to find the difference of 7,000 pounds per employee and as been pointed out the only way to do that is by increasing the price to the consumer.

It would be the irony of ironies if brexit caused foreign fruit pickers to get 43% pay increase while native british fruit pickers are still only offered £8 per hour

Taking back control

The eastern european fruit pickers have plenty of options around europe to offer their services, the UK fruit pickers are often locked in their own sinking ship

J Mysterio

There are no UK fruit pickers is the problem. People from the UK don't want to do menial jobs like that, they don't have the work ethic for it and view it as beneath them.

The Pick for Britain scheme failed and was scrapped.

When/ if Covid is overcome, the damage will be more clear for all to see.

Professor Moriarty

J Mysterio wrote: »

There are no UK fruit pickers is the problem. People from the UK don't want to do menial jobs like that, they don't have the work ethic for it and view it as beneath them.

The Pick for Britain scheme failed and was scrapped.

When/ if Covid is overcome, the damage will be more clear for all to see.

Well, the Irish won't be filling that gap. What is fascinating to observe is how the dynamic of Irish people working in Britain has changed so quickly over the past few decades. In the 60s/70s/80s, Irish people went to Britain to work on building sites, in pubs, restaurants etc. Today in the UK, on average, a White Irish person earns 40% more than a White British person.

ambro25

Peregrinus wrote: »

This is a classic illustration of the point that Brexit and Covid intensify one another, and the two happening together produces a worse outcome than than the cumulative outcome of both of them happening separately.

EU residents who were settle in the UK on end-of-transition day could get permanent settled status without having to meet any income requirements; the 23K income requirement only applies to EU citizens come to UK after the end of transition.

But, because of Covid, a large number of low-earning EU citizens who would otherwise have qualified for this had to leave the UK before the end of transition, and cannot now return unless they meet the 23K income requirement.

This will mean significant problems for the hospitality industry, as it struggles to recover from the pandemic restrictions - problems that would have been greatly reduced had the UK taken up the option of extending transition

And au pairs, language teaching assistants, care home workers, warehouse pickers, farmhands, (...) basically, any low-wage occupation long occupied by transient or semi-transient EU27 immigrants, which very very many UK SMEs have long based their respective business models (and profitability) on.

The combined facts that many EU27 in those occupations departed the UK pre-2021 due to Covid, and that many now cannot come back (nor 'new' EU27 go) to the UK under the new working visa rules, has already been widely reported in specialist circles. Just not in the MSM much.

This 'news' piece about departed EU27 hospitality workers doesn't begin to scratch -late- the economic scale of the problem for the UK: a vicious circle of trading vacuum gradually forming at the sole trading/SME end of the national economy, making everybody's life in the UK gradually more expensive in just about every respect, with ever less consuming choices and social mobility.

Padre_Pio

J Mysterio wrote: »

There are no UK fruit pickers is the problem. People from the UK don't want to do menial jobs like that, they don't have the work ethic for it and view it as beneath them.

Neither do the Irish in fairness.

J Mysterio

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Neither do the Irish in fairness.

Well, yes, obviously, but we didn't make it difficult for people to come here to do those jobs we don't want, which is the point.

ancapailldorcha

J Mysterio wrote: »

There are no UK fruit pickers is the problem. People from the UK don't want to do menial jobs like that, they don't have the work ethic for it and view it as beneath them.

The Pick for Britain scheme failed and was scrapped.

When/ if Covid is overcome, the damage will be more clear for all to see.

It's one of those things that show how broken and unfit-for-purpose the media is here along with political debate.

The closest I came to this being highlighted pre-referendum was the ITV "debate" between Cameron and Farage. Debate is in inverted commas because each of them had a half an hour with the audience and never directly spoke to each other.

Someone in the audience asked Farage what would happen if certain sectors couldn't source labour from abroad and wages rose as a result, thus increasing costs to businesses and the state. He was completely stumped and it was just passed over. He goes on to ask about care homes and Farage just gish gallops.

Video here:

https://www.c-span.org/video/?410726-1/prime-minister-david-cameron-ukip-leader-nigel-farage-debate-eu-membership

About 9 minutes in if anyone's interested.

There often would have been an element of a merry go round? with migration - young people arrive, stay for a few years then some settle and look for better paid work, or settle in the same type job or return home.

The migrants leaving the country or gaining better employment are replaced by new arrivals.

Brexit and covid have probably broken that, particularly with visa rules.

Maybe they'll do something like what Australia does and offer an extra year's visa if you do a few months of fruit picking and waiver the minimum wage requirements.

Leroy42

Yes, they have already stated that they are open to making exceptions. Under the guise that at least they are in control.

Of course, once one industry gets an exemption, others will want it and the man on the street will end up noticing no difference as all the jobs that were previously done by EU immigrants continue to be done by them.

So they will effectively end back in the same situation they were before, except that the rules are completely on the whim of whatever government is in place, which of course creates a lack of certainty both for individuals but also for companies looking to invest.

timetogo1

Akrasia wrote: »

It would be the irony of ironies if brexit caused foreign fruit pickers to get 43% pay increase while native british fruit pickers are still only offered £8 per hour

Taking back control

The eastern european fruit pickers have plenty of options around europe to offer their services, the UK fruit pickers are often locked in their own sinking ship

Or irony from a different angle.
Foreigners can get visas if they meet minimum salary requirements, so they'll get the higher paying jobs, leaving the lower paid jobs for the locals. Brexiters will love that.

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

Maybe they'll do something like what Australia does and offer an extra year's visa if you do a few months of fruit picking and waiver the minimum wage requirements.

I think the bigger problem is that, for many Brexit has lessened Britain's appeal. The bureaucracy of filling out visa forms could be the difference between coming and not coming for some people.

L1011

Deleted User wrote: »

Maybe they'll do something like what Australia does and offer an extra year's visa if you do a few months of fruit picking and waiver the minimum wage requirements.

Rewards of doing the fruit picking in Australia is another year in sunshine, high wages, society generally quite accepting of working holiday visa holders

Rewards for doing it in Britain - another year in the rain, with the tabloid press vilifying you and being considered to be "stealing jobs" (that nobody was going to do otherwise), probably minimum wage and reduced by whatever allowances they have for giving you a bunk bed and some gruel

Professor Moriarty

Knuckles Kennedy wrote: »

Apparently Irish workers are being actively recruited to build the new Hinckley Point power station in Somerset with the nearness of Bristol airport and its connections to Dublin being cited as one reason why skilled labourers from here have signed up.
Of course if there was sufficient work here for them they wouldn't go ...

Or maybe they are being paid much better wages than here because of labour shortages. Would be interesting to see how many they recruit once construction ramps up fully again here.

ongarite

Knuckles Kennedy wrote: »

Apparently Irish workers are being actively recruited to build the new Hinckley Point power station in Somerset with the nearness of Bristol airport and its connections to Dublin being cited as one reason why skilled labourers from here have signed up.
Of course if there was sufficient work here for them they wouldn't go ...

NHPET COVID paranoia also playing into large loss of trades to UK.
Commercial sites are still closed while UK and rest of Europe never closed during last year.
PUP payment isn't going to pay the bills.

CelticRambler

Knuckles Kennedy wrote: »

30,000 fruit and vegetable pickers, mainly from Eastern Europe, have been given temporary visas under The Seasonal Workers Pilot scheme for 2021.

Clarification: 30000 temporary visas have been made available for fruit and vegetable pickers. Based on the experience of recent years, there is no guarantee that that number will be taken up, and there will be at least as great a shortfall as previously. Throughout 2019 and 2020, recruitment agencies reported having great difficulty finding EU migrants willing to come to the UK - even those who had been returning every year. The reasons were simple: better pay in countries closer to home, and no Brexit stupidity to worry about.

Doubling, tripling, quadrupling the number of visas isn't going to make people want to return to the UK when their are more attractive opportunities elsewhere in the EU.

There are plenty of migrants in refugee camps around the Med, though, if the British want cheap labour to pick their strawberries.

Sam Russell

CelticRambler wrote: »

Clarification: 30000 temporary visas have been made available for fruit and vegetable pickers. Based on the experience of recent years, there is no guarantee that that number will be taken up, and there will be at least as great a shortfall as previously. Throughout 2019 and 2020, recruitment agencies reported having great difficulty finding EU migrants willing to come to the UK - even those who had been returning every year. The reasons were simple: better pay in countries closer to home, and no Brexit stupidity to worry about.

Doubling, tripling, quadrupling the number of visas isn't going to make people want to return to the UK when their are more attractive opportunities elsewhere in the EU.

There are plenty of migrants in refugee camps around the Med, though, if the British want cheap labour to pick their strawberries.

There are plenty willing migrants on the northern French coast. Just let it be known that they could come and they would - no cost travel as they would paddle their own canoe.

wexfordman2

Sam Russell wrote: »

There are plenty willing migrants on the northern French coast. Just let it be known that they could come and they would - no cost travel as they would paddle their own canoe.

Yeah, I know you might think thats funny, but its not!

CelticRambler

Knuckles Kennedy wrote: »

2,500 visas were available in 2019
10,000 in 2020
30,000 in 2021.


Looks pretty popular to me but as the picking season has yet to start the proof will be in the plum pudding at the end of the summer.
The National Farmer's Union think it an excelent programme.

Popular? How do you make the jump from 75000 seasonal farm workers not needing visas in 2019, to the measure being "popular" ?

And again, just because the government had to increase the number of visas available to 12 times what it was before doesn't mean that the people who didn't come in 2019 (when no visa was necessary) and didn't come in 2020 (when no visa was necessary) are suddenly going to decide to come in 2021 when they now have to go to the hassle of applying for a visa.

CelticRambler

Knuckles Kennedy wrote: »

And if they're all massed on the northern French coast why aren't they all taking advantage of those fantastic fruit and veg picking opportunities elswhere in Europe that some posters on here think are so much better than that on offer in the UK ...

Eh - because they want to go to the UK, and don't want to be stuck on a farm in Spain or Germany when their place on the dinghy comes up.

54and56

Strazdas wrote: »

I don't think these guys understand how market forces work. Also, if the pay rises materialise, it means dining out etc will suddenly become very expensive.

It's interesting anyway that they are actually gleeful at reports of migrant workers leaving the country in droves.

I'd say this is equally reciprocated by some Spanish at the thoughts of migrant Brits leaving Spain in droves.

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think the bigger problem is that, for many Brexit has lessened Britain's appeal. The bureaucracy of filling out visa forms could be the difference between coming and not coming for some people.

This seems to have been one of its central aims. Immigration was a huge "problem" and a burden and could only be tackled by reducing it. The implication was that it had to be reduced to net immigration of under 50k a year (these were the figures being publicly bandied about).

Nody

Knuckles Kennedy wrote: »

2,500 visas were available in 2019
10,000 in 2020
30,000 in 2021.


Looks pretty popular to me but as the picking season has yet to start the proof will be in the plum pudding at the end of the summer.
The National Farmer's Union think it an excellent programme.

Sometimes even a double facepalm is not enough; do you know what the difference was in 2019 and 2020 vs. 2021? I'll give you a hint; it involves EU freedom of movement rules compared to 2021.

Nody

Knuckles Kennedy wrote: »

I know, that's my point.
Either the UK is an unfriendly place forcing droves of migrants to flee ( the number of EU migrants applying for residency in the UK would suggest not ) or it's still a magnet for people wanting a better life.
It can't be both.

You assume everyone is one groups that share the same view...

The first group (young workers in low salaried jobs that UK people in general don't want to do such as fruit picking, baristas, au pair etc. while working on their English as well) have in general left and not coming back (these are EU citizens with options in EU). On the other hand you have people from Pakistan, Syria etc. fleeing to try to get a better who got people they know in the UK and looking to come over to get a better life. They in turn do not necessary have people they know in other EU countries and hence target the UK instead. This group is likely to increase as well as UK starts to fly them in for fruit picking etc. and they will fail to show up for their return flight (this is speculation obviously).

Nody

Knuckles Kennedy wrote: »

There continues to be net EU migration to the UK.
In June 2019 there were an estimated 3.4 milllion EU citizens living in the UK.
4.9 million EU citizens applied for the settled status residency scheme of which so far 4.3 million have been successful.
People are eligible for settled status if they started living in the UK before the end of the transition period December 31, 2020. The deadline for applications is June 30 2021.

Poles, Romanians and Italians top the scheme and 91% of the applications are from people wanting to stay in England.

The idea that young baristas have left the UK in droves for reasons other than the pandemic are simply untrue.

And those who did leave can't come back which is the point; who's going to take up all those empty positions when the economy opens up again? Where are all these workers going to come from? The EU immigration started falling of drastically starting in 2016 (hmm, what happened in 2016 again?) and continued since ending at in 2019 below 50k people a year. That is all pre Covid and the numbers were going in one direction only so no sorry, covid is not the reason why the number of EU workers were going down.

So once again; please explain where are are the workers going to come from for all jobs people in the UK could not be bothered to do previously with the tap of workers turned off from the EU (which was the previous answer).

Akrasia

Knuckles Kennedy wrote: »

2,500 visas were available in 2019
10,000 in 2020
30,000 in 2021.


Looks pretty popular to me but as the picking season has yet to start the proof will be in the plum pudding at the end of the summer.
The National Farmer's Union think it an excellent programme.

Eh, in 2019 and 2020, EU workers didn't need a visa to work in the EU, so comparing the numbers pre-brexit with post-brexit is ludicrous

Akrasia

Knuckles Kennedy wrote: »

I remember a time when you couldn't get served a pint in a London pub by anyone other than an Aussie student on a year's sabbatical.
A vacuum will always be filled.
I suspect we won't know until the pandemic is over and the country returns to some semblance of normality.

Economic Vacuum's are not always filled
There are large parts of northern England and Wales that have never properly recovered from the collapse of the mining industry in the 1980s/1990s
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-50069336

Before brexit, even some brexiters predicted an almost total collapse of the UK agricultural industry as just one example

Padre_Pio

Also interesting to see pubs and restaurants opening up in the UK while potential EU workers are still in lockdowns on the continent, and unable to travel even if they have Visas.

CelticRambler

Knuckles Kennedy wrote: »

A vacuum will always be filled.
I suspect we won't know until the pandemic is over and the country returns to some semblance of normality.

We don't need to wait. If the vacuum is filled, it'll be filled by the non-European migrants whose numbers have been steadily increasing while the numbers of European immigrants has dramatically declined. We've been over this before - perhaps you should read back over the other threads in this series.

CelticRambler

Knuckles Kennedy wrote: »

There will be radical changes but the idea that the 5th largest economy in the world cannot adapt and thrive in a different atmosphere is nonsense.
It is a world-leader in many areas of technology,commerce and science and it attracts more inward investment than any other country in Europe.
Rather than make predicitions based on four months of being out of the EU and in the middle of a global pandemic I'd rather wait a few years before reading the tea leaves.

Yep, we've had that line of argument before too. All those remarkable indicators were born out of the UK's membership of an Economic Community that set the same targets for all its member states. The UK before EEC membership was an economic basket case.

The UK after EU membership will have no choice but to adapt, but it will be competing with all the former "emergent economies" that have now emerged and are looking for their own slice of the global market.

Sure, it's "too soon" to make long term predictions; but on the basis of deals concluded so far, the UK is already slipping behind the EU27, e.g. the Mexico deal.