Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

maestroamado

I see there is a protest in Cork today about fishing.
What's that all about?

I thought the EU were sorting that after Brexit.

Seth Brundle

Apparently M&S claim that tarifs introduced will cost them about £30 million, the majority of their EU trade being with Ireland.
Although they are working on solutions to stabilise the business, why wasn't this done a few years ago?
Will this result in even higher prices for Irish shoppers?

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1397438969118433283
https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1397439600843501569

Mantus

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Apparently M&S claim that tarifs introduced will cost them about £30 million, the majority of their EU trade being with Ireland.
Although they are working on solutions to stabilise the business, why wasn't this done a few years ago?
Will this result in even higher prices for Irish shoppers?

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1397438969118433283
https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1397439600843501569

Shocking how in prepared they were.

Peregrinus

No tariffs have been introduced; that's one of the major points of the Trade and Co-Operation Agreement. The additional £30 million is the cost is the cost imposed by the non-tariff barriers that have resulted from Brexit that were not alleviated by the TCA.

As for being unprepared, we have to cut M&S a little slack. While they knew what tariff- and non-tariff barriers might result from Brexit, they couldn't know what would result until the TCA was published, which happened on 24 December 2020, a week before it came into effect. Thus the amount of advance preparation which they, and other affected businesses could do was strictly limited.

Plus, there's no guarantee that more preparation time would have meant the £30 million cost would have been avoided. Most of it probably wouldn't have been. The non-tariff barriers are real barriers and there is a real (and persistent) cost to surmounting them, which at best would only have been partly abated by having had more time to think about how best to deal with them.

Yes, it's likely to result in higher prices for Irish shoppers, or less range, or a bit of both, unless M&S decide to absorb the cost in overheads and spread it accross the business in order to maintain price equivalence between GB and NI, and then between NI and RoI.

fash

Peregrinus wrote: »

No tariffs have been introduced; that's one of the major points of the Trade and Co-Operation Agreement.

Is that true? I thought that unless you fall within the terms of the TCA in relation to (being able to show) origin (doesn't UK flour often come from Canada/US?) and value added (aren't a lot of UK goods merely finished in UK?), then you get hit with tariffs. Open to correction on TCA/UK relevant facts.

Peregrinus

fash wrote: »

Is that true? I thought that unless you fall within the terms of the TCA in relation to (being able to show) origin (doesn't UK flour often come from Canada/US?) and value added (aren't a lot of UK goods merely finished in UK?), then you get hit with tariffs. Open to correction on TCA/UK relevant facts.

Ah, yes, you're quite right. To the extent that M&S stock is sourced outside the UK, or made from inputs sourced outside the UK, it may attract tariffs on the non-EU components.

But I think the bulk of the £30 million cost is likely to be accounted for by the non-tariff barriers, and by the overheads of complying with customs and regulatory processes. The actual amount of tariffs collected on M&S goods will not be high.

Sam Russell

Peregrinus wrote: »

Ah, yes, you're quite right. To the extent that M&S stock is sourced outside the UK, or made from inputs sourced outside the UK, it may attract tariffs on the non-EU components.

But I think the bulk of the £30 million cost is likely to be accounted for by the non-tariff barriers, and by the overheads of complying with customs and regulatory processes. The actual amount of tariffs collected on M&S goods will not be high.

First, M&S is already 15% or so more expensive in Ireland than the UK. It is easy to check - just look up an item on M&S UK and compare the same item on M&S IE, and you will see they use a conversion rate of approx. 75p = €1, which given current exchange rate is 86p = €1 gives them an advantage enough to cover the cost of the NI Protocol.

Second, they did prepare. They built a distribution warehouse in Scotland to supply NI and Ireland. Big mistake - they could not have made their distribution more expensive if they tried. All their products are sourced outside Ireland, and now they have to comply with SPS regime that outlaws sausages that could and should be sourced within Ireland. It would have made more sense to build their distribution in Saggart or the Naas Road.

Third, they are struggling in Ireland with a high cost base anyway. They do most of their EU trade in Ireland because they cannot keep their shops open in
the rest of Europe.

They are likely to leave Ireland in the near future. They are not a well run company.

Akrasia

Mantus wrote: »

Shocking how in prepared they were.

In fairness to them, and every other business, Brexit was almost impossible to prepare for given the brinksmanship approach that May, and Johnson applied to the negotiations. There was huge uncertainty about how Brexit would be applied until pretty much the day before it happened.

Businesses could always have 'prepared for the worst' and assumed a no deal brexit on 1st of Jan this year, but that would have been an expensive gamble if the Tories had negotiated a 2 year extension to the transition period (which the EU were offering but the UK foolishly refused), and it could have put them at a serious competitive disadvantage if their competitors could continue to trade on EU terms while they had already begun moving their supply chain to the hugely disadvantageous post brexit reality

Evd-Burner

My sister in laws boyfriend was working in M&S as a supervisor. I let him know of the issues relating to Brexit and how it would likely effect M&S using all the details I have learned from the various Brexit threads I have been lurking, he switched jobs about a year ago as a result.

I reckon they wont last 18 months with the current deal.

ancapailldorcha

Evd-Burner wrote: »

My sister in laws boyfriend was working in M&S as a supervisor. I let him know of the issues relating to Brexit and how it would likely effect M&S using all the details I have learned from the various Brexit threads I have been lurking, he switched jobs about a year ago as a result.

I reckon they wont last 18 months with the current deal.

I like M&S. I'd be sad if they went bankrupt and it's all the more depressing that the public voted for it without any interest in holding senior Brexiters accountable.

Nody

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I like M&S. I'd be sad if they went bankrupt and it's all the more depressing that the public voted for it without any interest in holding senior Brexiters accountable.

I'd guess they would simply dismantle their international branch of the company and focus on the UK market only (excluding NI) instead.

ancapailldorcha

Nody wrote: »

I'd guess they would simply dismantle their international branch of the company and focus on the UK market only (excluding NI) instead.

Still a shame though. This is supposed to be a treasured British brand and I've only heard about their travails on this thread.

VinLieger

Evd-Burner wrote: »

My sister in laws boyfriend was working in M&S as a supervisor. I let him know of the issues relating to Brexit and how it would likely effect M&S using all the details I have learned from the various Brexit threads I have been lurking, he switched jobs about a year ago as a result.

I reckon they wont last 18 months with the current deal.

Yeah im a fan of going there every so often they do some food items no other places do here which im willing to pay the markup for.


Their shelves have been pretty empty ever since January, stock has been very inconsistent. TBH like others im shocked at how badly prepared they were, some might say they didn't know what to prepare for but to me it seems like they didn't prepare for anything and had their heads in the sand hoping it would just work out okay.

Like you id be surprised if they were still present here by 2023.

On the plus side it does leave a big gap at the top end of the market for premium shopping that an Irish company could take advantage of.

Peregrinus

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Still a shame though. This is supposed to be a treasured British brand and I've only heard about their travails on this thread.

They've a lot of travails anyway. It's a treasured British brand that has been on the slide for quite a number of years, in the UK as much as elsewhere. Brexit doesn't help, obviously, but you have to situate this within the longer story of the decline of M&S.

pixelburp

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Still a shame though. This is supposed to be a treasured British brand and I've only heard about their travails on this thread.

It's emblematic of the Brexit "dream" really: in a pursuit towards a mythic form of Albion Ascendant, the nation is self-destructing its own cherished totems of Englishhood. Or at least, the middle-class version of it.

There are a few mitigating issues mind you; M&S has struggled the last few years as it found itself crowded by the High Street supermarkets doing their own "fancy" brands (such as the Tesco Finest range). M&S used to be where you went to get foodstuffs that were a cut above the rest, whereas now that market has shrunk. Even here in Ireland it's the same; SuperValue's own fancy label is (IMO) as good as if not better than anything M&S offers. Their breads and baked goods remain great though.

But therein lies another wrinkle I suppose. The High Street supermarkets probably found their produce bettered by the high tide that were EU food standards, rising all the boats. It wasn't anything people might have noticed, merely getting used to the higher grade food on offer in supermarkets, without ever thinking too hard on where or how it came to be. Of course, now those markets are quietly trying to de-EU their food (petit pois becoming "British fancy peas")

yagan

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I like M&S. I'd be sad if they went bankrupt and it's all the more depressing that the public voted for it without any interest in holding senior Brexiters accountable.

Henry Street is going to feel even emptier after that.

Even before Brexit and the pandemic the trend of closures of Debenhams, M&S and other main street outlets was well established. The internet is the main street and aside from some cotton trousers to me M&S felt like a nursing home resident outfitters.

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

Second, they did prepare. They built a distribution warehouse in Scotland to supply NI and Ireland. Big mistake - they could not have made their distribution more expensive if they tried. All their products are sourced outside Ireland, and now they have to comply with SPS regime that outlaws sausages that could and should be sourced within Ireland. It would have made more sense to build their distribution in Saggart or the Naas Road.

Marks and Sparks source almost nothing in Ireland https://interactivemap.marksandspencer.com/ almost any replacement would most likely source more here, unless it's one of the mega stores that are too big to operate here.

A distribution centre in the EU would solve some problems for stuff sourced in the EU. But not for GB and the rest of the world.

Though in fairness not even the UK cabinet knew what the deal was going to be, but still M&S didn't have proper contingency plans.

On the other hand https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57251682

Marks & Spencer has said it plans to close another 30 shops over the next 10 years as part of its turnaround plan.

M&S has already closed or relocated 59 main stores, as well as cutting 7,000 jobs across stores and management.
...
The group will open 17 new or expanded main stores over the next two years, including a number of former Debenhams sites.

So there's a general reorganization and the Irish stores may be reevaluated. NI was always going to have higher shipping costs than Finchley. There may be a bit of using Brexit as an excuse to cut back on unprofitable areas.

druss

The M&S forward planning generally, and repeatedly, is a tad suspect.

In May 2015, massive fanfare, they open a huge store in Brussels in a pretty prestigous location and with 125 staff.

In November 2016, post Brexit vote, they close Brussels store (which always seemed busy to me and which I found occasionally handy). This probably wasn't entirely Brexit based, but it was still bizarre that they authorised the opening, hired the staff, ran an apparently succesful store and decided barely over a year later that this didn't fit with their new vision.

And they had done this all before in 2001. I liked having them round, especially at Christmas. My partner would swap them in a heart beat for El Corte Ingles though!

yagan

druss wrote: »

The M&S forward planning generally, and repeatedly, is a tad suspect.

In May 2015, massive fanfare, they open a huge store in Brussels in a pretty prestigous location and with 125 staff.

In November 2016, post Brexit vote, they close Brussels store (which always seemed busy to me and which I found occasionally handy). This probably wasn't entirely Brexit based, but it was still bizarre that they authorised the opening, hired the staff, ran an apparently succesful store and decided barely over a year later that this didn't fit with their new vision.

And they had done this all before in 2001. I liked having them round, especially at Christmas. My partner would swap them in a heart beat for El Corte Ingles though!

I always thought M&S just had good marketing, the average Supervalu has better over all produce quality.

It really pushed the whole cheap luxury angle and people believed it.

The Raging Bile Duct

Never found any of the food out of M&S that interesting. Great ads, mediocre reality.

druss

yagan wrote: »

I always thought M&S just had good marketing, the average Supervalu has better over all produce quality.

It really pushed the whole cheap luxury angle and people believed it.

At the time, there wasn't a SuperValu in Brussels, although Brexit has almost made that happen! I wouldn't ever have done a "weekly shop" in M&S Brussels, but it was good to have for cheddar, mince pies and custard, that kind of stuff.

On the other hand, I knew some UK and Irish people living there who did buy everything from that store.

yagan

druss wrote: »

At the time, there wasn't a SuperValu in Brussels, although Brexit has almost made that happen! I wouldn't ever have done a "weekly shop" in M&S Brussels, but it was good to have for cheddar, mince pies and custard, that kind of stuff.

On the other hand, I knew some UK and Irish people living there who did buy everything from that store.

I won't be surprised if the Musgrave group which supplies Supervalu's expand their continental pressense as a direct consequence of Brexit. I think they've a distribution centre in Spain as is.

When Lidl and Aldi first entered ireland most of their food was imported, whereas now they send Irish sourced produce right throughout their supply chains in Europe and further afield.

Two years ago I remember the cheddar cheese in a portugal Lidl being Irish with no British options.

Seth Brundle

If enough mainland EU carriers follow suit, will we face roaming charges when we travel to the GB or NI?

https://twitter.com/BrexitBin/status/1397298928853393415

yagan

Seth Brundle wrote: »

If enough mainland EU carriers follow suit, will we face roaming charges when we travel to the GB or NI?

https://twitter.com/BrexitBin/status/1397298928853393415

Surely with NI remaining in the customs union it would only affect GB.

I can imagine the likes of Three splitting their NI business from GB and combining it with us. We really are in the early days of business reconfiguration.

eire4

Evd-Burner wrote: »

My sister in laws boyfriend was working in M&S as a supervisor. I let him know of the issues relating to Brexit and how it would likely effect M&S using all the details I have learned from the various Brexit threads I have been lurking, he switched jobs about a year ago as a result.

I reckon they wont last 18 months with the current deal.

I would say he made a smart move there as based on what I see I would say it is only a matter of time once the pandemic is gone and brexit's realities fully kick in that they shut up shop and leave Ireland.

yagan

yagan wrote: »

Surely with NI remaining in the customs union it would only affect GB.

I can imagine the likes of Three splitting their NI business from GB and combining it with us. We really are in the early days of business reconfiguration.

I'm not sure there's any customs code whatsoever that discusses roaming rights.

yagan

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm not sure there's any customs code whatsoever that discusses roaming rights.

You're right. I just did a quick check and the only exemptions seem to be a promise from UK phone providers that they wouldn't levee roaming rates on those constantly border crossing in Ireland.

Charles Babbage

yagan wrote: »

Surely with NI remaining in the customs union it would only affect GB.

I can imagine the likes of Three splitting their NI business from GB and combining it with us. We really are in the early days of business reconfiguration.

NI does not remain in EU services union.

The Irish government need to act to ensure that things like roaming cannot be lost. There should be an explicit objective to replace any consumer provision provided by the EU with an All Ireland provision.

Leroy42

Charles Babbage wrote: »

NI does not remain in EU services union.

The Irish government need to act to ensure that things like roaming cannot be lost. There should be an explicit objective to replace any consumer provision provided by the EU with an All Ireland provision.

Act? How?

Capt'n Midnight

yagan wrote: »

You're right. I just did a quick check and the only exemptions seem to be a promise from UK phone providers that they wouldn't levee roaming rates on those constantly border crossing in Ireland.

There are only three physical networks in Ireland.

Gomo use Eir's network
AnPost use Vodafone's
Everyone, and I mean everyone, else uses Three's network


The four physical networks in the UK are EE, Three, O2 and Vodafone

I'd expect Eir to continue with EE (BT) Unless Eir's French owners upset the apple cart.
Vodafone and Three operate in both countries.
The VM and O2 merger in the UK shouldn't be an issue since VM use Three here who took over O2 Ireland a good while back.

No idea about 48 , Lycamobile and the other MVNO's who piggyback on Three or the. Really it's down to what reciprocal deals they have with UK operators.

And whether any of the operators go back to the bad old days of setting up masts along the border to attract roaming charges :mad: