Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

murphaph wrote: »

I'm not so sure it'll be easy to tempt young European students to work in a 'spoons in Hull or an abattoir in wherever. Not even sure the average young European would envisage receiving much of a warm welcome.

Good luck to them. Not our problem.

It's funny that we were told that EU free movement held wages down and now Martin wants to allow free movement instead of offering decent pay and conditions for the staff of his grubby, greasy pubs.

Sam Russell

murphaph wrote: »

I'm not so sure it'll be easy to tempt young European students to work in a 'spoons in Hull or an abattoir in wherever. Not even sure the average young European would envisage receiving much of a warm welcome.

Good luck to them. Not our problem.

The only reason a (non-Irish) person of the sub 25 age group would want to go on a short (less than 2 years) sojourn in the UK would be to get their English (particularly spoken) up from good to fluent - if it is not already good they should not bother.

Unfortunately, the jobs that would be on offer would be close to min wage - and the fellow workers in those jobs might not be fluent speakers. Imagine being stuck in Birmingham or Liverpool or even Glasgow and hoping to return with a good spoken English that others could understand.

I don't think so.

[I remember hearing of a guy from West Cork - strong accent - going up to Galway for an interview for a graduate job and being put up in a good hotel. He went up to the reception desk and said to the Galway local receptionist - 'My name is Sean Murphy (or whatever his name was), I think you have a reservation for me'. She said 'Sorry, can you say that again?' After three attempts, she pushed a pen and pad and asked him to write it down. - That is less than 200 km as the crow flies.] That is a true story.

Kermit.de.frog

Peregrinus wrote: »

Not nearly as horrible as the attitude that characterises a vote to leave the EU as a vote for "independence" and a vote "to be a sovereign country again".

Ireland has been a dependent part of the UK, and also an independent sovereign state within the EU. We know the difference. Brexit supporters do their cause no favours by demonstrating that they don't. They reinforce the perception that Brexit support rests, fundamentally, on a foundation of ignorance and delusion. This is probably not the impression they are hoping to create.

Muddying the water with your timeliness there. Remind everyone what year Ireland was declared a Republic and what year the country joined the EU.

We need to regain our independence and prosper as a small open economy.

No country, not a single one, needs the EU to be prosperous. That is the great lie indoctrinated in to you and it is being challenged finally.

We need to confront these myths head on.

When Italy or France go this country needs it's own exit plan. Without one we'll end up in a crisis.

Padre_Pio

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Muddying the water with your timeliness there. Remind everyone what year Ireland was declared a Republic and what year the country joined the EU.

We need to regain our independence and prosper as a small open economy.

No country, not a single one, needs the EU to be prosperous. That is the great lie indoctrinated in to you and it is being challenged finally.

We need to confront these myths head on.

When Italy or France go this country needs it's own exit plan. Without one we'll end up in a crisis.

Is there any study or source that shows the UK is better off outside the EU?
Is there any study or source that shows that Ireland would be better off outside the EU?

What is your definition of prosperous?
Prosperity would imply additional wealth and success. Has the UK gotten additional wealth or success since leaving the EU? Are they predicted to?

ambro25

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

(...).

We need to regain our independence and prosper as a small open economy.

No country, not a single one, needs the EU to be prosperous. That is the great lie indoctrinated in to you and it is being challenged finally.

We need to confront these myths head on.

Is it try-to-out-ironise-Tim-Martin day and I’ve missed the memo?

When Italy or France go this country needs it's own exit plan. Without one we'll end up in a crisis.

Given the shining example of an exit that the UK is gifting the world currently, you’ve got a comfortable decade to prepare that. At the very least.

Take all the time you need.

Sam Russell

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Is there any study or source that shows the UK is better off outside the EU?
Is there any study or source that shows that Ireland would be better off outside the EU?

What is your definition of prosperous?
Prosperity would imply additional wealth and success. Has the UK gotten additional wealth or success since leaving the EU? Are they predicted to?

We were certainly not prosperous before we joined the EU - we were broke, and had mass emigration as a safety valve. We were highly dependent on the UK, and we had a ruinous FTA with the UK (because we were much smaller an economy). We were supplying them with massive amounts of good food at below cost.

The UK were in a ruinous state before they joined the EU as well. They had mammoth strikes that ruined the auto industry and their coal industry, plus their steel and shipbuilding, but that might be competition that killed those.

It was only the single market that allowed the CoL to take off and become a major force in finance. It is at least this they have thrown away by leaving the EU as there is little advantage between the CoL and NY.

And the plus side of leaving the EU? No Brexity answer to that, as of yet, except it might take 50 years for those advantages to become apparent - according to Mogg.

Neither France nor Italy are going to leave the EU, ever. Now Poland and Hungary might, but that might not be of their choosing.

CelticRambler

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

No country, not a single one, needs the EU to be prosperous. That is the great lie indoctrinated in to you and it is being challenged finally.

By the same logic, would you agree that no single state of the United States of America needs to be in that union to be prosperous, and we should hope for the dismantling of it's obviously flawed model of democracy?

What about the Russian Federation - would you also advocate for the dismantling of that union?

On a smaller scale, perhaps New South Wales should cede from the socio-politico-economic union that is Australia?

Or how about Scotland and Wales look for prosperity freed from the shackles of unelected Westminster bureaucrats?

You're right: no country needs to be in the EU to prosper. But it does give some damn good advantages, both on an individual and a corporate level.

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Muddying the water with your timeliness there. Remind everyone what year Ireland was declared a Republic and what year the country joined the EU.

We need to regain our independence and prosper as a small open economy.

No country, not a single one, needs the EU to be prosperous. That is the great lie indoctrinated in to you and it is being challenged finally.

We need to confront these myths head on.

When Italy or France go this country needs it's own exit plan. Without one we'll end up in a crisis.

83% of Irish people disagree.

Kermit.de.frog

Sam Russell wrote: »

We were certainly not prosperous before we joined the EU - we were broke, and had mass emigration as a safety valve. We were highly dependent on the UK, and we had a ruinous FTA with the UK (because we were much smaller an economy). We were supplying them with massive amounts of good food at below cost.

The UK were in a ruinous state before they joined the EU as well. They had mammoth strikes that ruined the auto industry and their coal industry, plus their steel and shipbuilding, but that might be competition that killed those.

It was only the single market that allowed the CoL to take off and become a major force in finance. It is at least this they have thrown away by leaving the EU as there is little advantage between the CoL and NY.

And the plus side of leaving the EU? No Brexity answer to that, as of yet, except it might take 50 years for those advantages to become apparent - according to Mogg.

Neither France nor Italy are going to leave the EU, ever. Now Poland and Hungary might, but that might not be of their choosing.

Most of what you complain about pre EU was Irish bad policies of protectionism which led to poverty.

This is not relevant today in a globalised enlightened world where small countries like Iceland or Singapore AND Ireland are so well placed to exploit the opportunities.

We can't because we are part of the EU and stuck in the Euro open air prison that can only lead to endless crisis cycles for the 'piglet' countries (Spain, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Greece).

CelticRambler

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is not relevant today in a globalised enlightened world where small countries like Iceland or Singapore AND Ireland are so well placed to exploit the opportunities.

D'you think the Irish would welcome Singaporean property prices? Grand so. Sure let's give it a try.

In the meantime, maybe you should think of taking your anti-EU rhetoric over to yet another Irexit thread, unless you can provide us with some examples of how the UK is prospering since leaving. They've had five full months of freedom at this stage, so we should be seeing something, shouldn't we? :rolleyes:

Kermit.de.frog

CelticRambler wrote: »

D'you think the Irish would welcome Singaporean property prices? Grand so. Sure let's give it a try.

In the meantime, maybe you should think of taking your anti-EU rhetoric over to yet another Irexit thread, unless you can provide us with some examples of how the UK is prospering since leaving. They've had five full months of freedom at this stage, so we should be seeing something, shouldn't we? :rolleyes:

The OECD predicts the UK will be the world's fastest growing major economy this year growing 7.2%.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57306596.amp

Seth Brundle

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Most of what you complain about pre EU was Irish bad policies of protectionism which led to poverty.

What's your point? Would those policies have ended had we not joined the EU?

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is not relevant today in a globalised enlightened world where small countries like Iceland or Singapore AND Ireland are so well placed to exploit the opportunities.

So what opportunities would Ireland be able to exploit in this "globalised enlightened world"?

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We can't because we are part of the EU and stuck in the Euro open air prison that can only lead to endless crisis cycles for the 'piglet' countries (Spain, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Greece).

Are you copy/pasting from the Express?

Seth Brundle

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The OECD predicts the UK will be the world's fastest growing major economy this year growing 7.2%.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57306596.amp

7.2% growth on what?

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The OECD predicts the UK will be the world's fastest growing major economy this year growing 7.2%.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57306596.amp

Context is everything.

From your article:

The UK is ...rebounding from a downturn that was one of the deepest.

And:

...the OECD warns that increased border costs following Brexit will hit foreign trade.

And ludicrously:

The report also says a closer trade relationship with the EU would improve the economic outlook in the medium term.

Kermit.de.frog

Seth Brundle wrote: »

7.2% growth on what?

You've asked for evidence the UK is doing perfectly fine as an independent nation. I present it. You're not happy with it and will never be.

Sam Russell

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Most of what you complain about pre EU was Irish bad policies of protectionism which led to poverty.

The protectionism was a universal policy, not just Ireland, but that is now reversed universally into globalism. We did not have access to many markets for our agricultural products. Agriculture was and is one of the most protected markets in the world.

We did not have the expert talent needed to run multinational type companies, nor did we have the industrial might that, say Belfast had with the shipbuilding, nor did we have the financial muscle to get it. We just had agriculture that was not far off subsistence.

We had little natural resources like coal, but have since found zinc in Navan - the mine opened in 1977, 5 years after we joined the EEC. We have wind as well, a bit of gas, but no oil (yet).

The Ireland of today is built on 100 years of poverty, and the previous regimes few hundred years of enforced poverty. It is remarkable how far we have come since joining the EEC/EC/EU.

Currently we are even on the UN Security Council - not bad for such a little country.

Fionn1952

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The OECD predicts the UK will be the world's fastest growing major economy this year growing 7.2%.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57306596.amp

That would be recovery rather than growth, no?

For context one would need to know the contraction they felt due to the pandemic and where this growth leaves them relative to that.

You would of course agree that if they had a projected 7.2% growth having just experienced say a contraction of 15%, they would be in a much worse position than a country that had a lesser projected growth of 5%, but who only had a pandemic contraction of 4%.

The numbers I've used above are hypothetical only to demonstrate the pointless nature of the 7.2% projection, I'm not sure what the figures are for UK economic contraction due to the pandemic.

Padre_Pio

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You've asked for evidence the UK is doing perfectly fine as an independent nation. I present it. You're not happy with it and will never be.

A percentage number is not evidence.
Somalia could have 10% growth but it would still be a terrible place to live.

Ill reiterate my comment that you deftly ignored:

Is there any study or source that shows the UK is better off outside the EU?
Is there any study or source that shows that Ireland would be better off outside the EU?

What is your definition of prosperous?
Prosperity would imply additional wealth and success. Has the UK gotten additional wealth or success since leaving the EU? Are they predicted to?

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You can have a closer trade relationship as a sovereign equal. Don't see what your point is.

Work together instead of being told what to do. How many times was Ireland told to 'think again' by Brussels? The UK don't have to put up with that anymore.

Would Ireland have a closer relationship with our EU trading partners if we left the EU?
Should we sacrifice our relationship with the EU in order to grow closer to a country which nas no interest in our well being?

Ireland was never told to "think again" by Brussels. You really have to improve your knowledge if you believe this was the case.

peter kern

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The OECD predicts the UK will be the world's fastest growing major economy this year growing 7.2%.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57306596.amp

https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/
advanced table
spot the fastest country back to pre covid level lol and then look at iceland as well ....

Seth Brundle

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You've asked for evidence the UK is doing perfectly fine as an independent nation. I present it. You're not happy with it and will never be.

Is that 7.2% growth on pre-Brexit figures or 7.2% growth on 2020 numbers or 7.2% growth on what?
You throw a growth figure out there without any context. Assuming it is on 2020, than given the UK economy last year, is that actual growth when compared to 2018 and 2019?

Jizique

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The OECD predicts the UK will be the world's fastest growing major economy this year growing 7.2%.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57306596.amp

Coming of the lower base - down 10% last year to up 7.2%;
Down 10% followed by up 10% still leave you before where you started

CelticRambler

Jizique wrote: »

Down 10% followed by up 10% still leave you before where you started

Minor pedantic maths point: no, you're not - you still have some ground to make up. That's the fun of quoting percentages - you can hide all kinds of bad news in them, or even pass it off as good news, as Kermit is doing.

If we're messing around with figures in that way, using the OECD economic outlook stats linked by peter kern, they show that UK exports are down 21.5% for services and 27.6% for goods, compared to an increase for Ireland of 6.5% and 14% respectively.

That kind of puts a hole in the prosper-outside-the-EU argument, doesn't it? This little piggy went to market, and made a killing.

murphaph

Seth Brundle wrote: »

7.2% growth on what?

A 9.something percent contraction last year. It was the worst in the OECD IIRC. If they didn't experience a huge rebound they'd be in serious, serious trouble.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please stay on topic. Any posts not directly pertaining to Brexit may be deleted.

Peregrinus

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The OECD predicts the UK will be the world's fastest growing major economy this year growing 7.2%.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57306596.amp

As others have pointed out, this is simply an artefact of the the fact that the UK had one of the largest pandemic-related crunches of the major economies. They fell further; they have further to climb back up.

The same OECD report ranks countries by how long it has been, or is expected to be, before they get back to the GDP per capita that they enjoyed before the pandemic. This measure, obviously, aggregates the negative impact of the pandemic and the recovery. The UK does not perform well, coming in at 26 out of 33 advanced economies, level with Italy but behind Germany, Poland, Sweden, Denmark and Ireland (among other EU countries).

Given the UK's superior performance with vaccine rollout and, therefore, better capacity to lift restrictions and resume economic life, it's reasonable to ask, why is the OECD predicting such a slow recovery? And the answer, to the surprise of no-one at all, is Brexit; increased border costs following Brexit are hitting foreign trade, compounding the effect of the pandemic and retarding the recovery. The OECD report that you refer to says, in as many words, that if the UK wants to improve its performance it needs a closer trade relationship with the EU. It's right there in the story that you link to, but maybe you didn't read that far.

fly_agaric

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

When Italy or France go this country needs it's own exit plan. Without one we'll end up in a crisis.

We'll need alot more than just an "exit plan" if the wheels come off the EU as you really seem to desire. We'll need to brace for impact. :eek:.
You can see how it will end up with the distinct, erm, frost-iness in relations developing between UK and the other countries that didn't take their ball home post Brexit.
That will really take off if the likes of France/Germany/Italy get some right-populist governments. They will be, EU or no EU involved, really in their element going toe to toe with the Brit nationalists over areas where there is a disagreement.
Could you imagine what would have happened re Covid-19 vaccine supply if AfD were in power in Germany and Le Pen in France given the UKs behaviour?
The govt's of the 2 mainly took that on the chin and kept calm + carried on.

astrofool

It is quaint that a barely majority passed (52-48) referendum from the most euro-skeptic country would somehow spill over to the rest of the EU to the level that we need to start planning for it. The notion is ridiculous, but at least it's an admittance that an exit from the EU will put the country involved into a crisis, as was obvious for everyone from the beginning of the brexit experiment.

joeysoap

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The OECD predicts the UK will be the world's fastest growing major economy this year growing 7.2%.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57306596.amp

Last paragraph in that report;

The report also says a closer trade relationship with the EU would improve the economic outlook in the medium term.

Strazdas

astrofool wrote: »

It is quaint that a barely majority passed (52-48) referendum from the most euro-skeptic country would somehow spill over to the rest of the EU to the level that we need to start planning for it. The notion is ridiculous, but at least it's an admittance that an exit from the EU will put the country involved into a crisis, as was obvious for everyone from the beginning of the brexit experiment.

It's very striking that Brexiteers think mere 'Euroscepticism' and wanting to leave the EU and see the project going down in flames are the exact same thing.

Historians are going to find this aspect fascinating - how Britain went from being a Eurosceptic country (wanting some reforms of the EU from within) to an intense hatred of it and wanting to see it destroyed. All of this seemed to happen in the space of about five years.

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

It's very striking that Brexiteers think mere 'Euroscepticism' and wanting to leave the EU and see the project going down in flames are the exact same thing.

Historians are going to find this aspect fascinating - how Britain went from being a Eurosceptic country (wanting some reforms of the EU from within) to an intense hatred of it and wanting to see it destroyed. All of this seemed to happen in the space of about five years.

It really is remarkable listening to an English man drunkenly rant about the Common Agricultural Policy while sitting at a bar in Asia where he has lived for over a decade. With American politics, people argue about clear and obvious social issues or corruption, but with Brexit, the arguments and anger got so specific.

I don't think there is another point in history where the man on the street has ever cared so much about international trade agreements, whilst simultaneously not having a clue what they're on about.