Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

It really is remarkable listening to an English man drunkenly rant about the Common Agricultural Policy while sitting at a bar in Asia where he has lived for over a decade. With American politics, people argue about clear and obvious social issues or corruption, but with Brexit, the arguments and anger got so specific.

I don't think there is another point in history where the man on the street has ever cared so much about international trade agreements, whilst simultaneously not having a clue what they're on about.

I don't think people are fully aware just how radicalised the anti-EU and anti-Europe debate became in Britain in recent times. Around 2008-12 or so, people were merely talking about reform of the EU and stopping it taking on new powers. These days it's about who will be the next to leave and when will the EU be destroyed.

What has really happened is that half the English public has moved right out to the extremes. They are very much in thrall to the nutcase fringe. As you say though, said people are ranting on these topics from a position of ignorance and not having a clue what they are talking about.

Larbre34

Strazdas wrote: »

It's very striking that Brexiteers think mere 'Euroscepticism' and wanting to leave the EU and see the project going down in flames are the exact same thing.

Historians are going to find this aspect fascinating - how Britain went from being a Eurosceptic country (wanting some reforms of the EU from within) to an intense hatred of it and wanting to see it destroyed. All of this seemed to happen in the space of about five years.

Thats fascism folks!

54and56

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't think there is another point in history where the man on the street has ever cared so much about international trade agreements, whilst simultaneously not having a clue what they're on about.

This encapsulates the effect 20+ years of Express/Daily Mail irresponsible and inaccurate (but never seriously challenged or corrected) headlines ended up having on a once well educated and well informed democracy which is imploding before our eyes.

Whoever takes over from the Tories, when that eventually happens, will have a serious job of work to do to unpick the worst elements of the Great Brexit Folly as what was previously referred to as Project Fear is very much now Project Here. (not my line, saw it used elsewhere)

ClosedAccountFuzzy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Most of what you complain about pre EU was Irish bad policies of protectionism which led to poverty.

Ireland wasn't unusually protectionist compared to countries of that era. There wasn't a global market to isolate from. It simply didn't exist and global trade was pretty restricted and very dominated by old empires and so on. The important thing to remember is this point gets dragged up, and it's usually comparing the 1930s, 40s and 50s and 2010s.

There has been an absolute revolution in the opening of markets and a move towards rules-based-trade, particularly with access to the EU and the creation of a European single market, but more broadly the rules of trade relaxed a lot.

The arguments being made by Brexiteers are completely incoherent. On the one side they want this 'global Britain' and on the other side they want absolute protectionism, where all that maters is protecting an abstract (and ever changing) notion of sovereignty.

murphaph

Strazdas wrote: »

I don't think people are fully aware just how radicalised the anti-EU and anti-Europe debate became in Britain in recent times. Around 2008-12 or so, people were merely talking about reform of the EU and stopping it taking on new powers. These days it's about who will be the next to leave and when will the EU be destroyed.

What has really happened is that half the English public has moved right out to the extremes. They are very much in thrall to the nutcase fringe. As you say though, said people are ranting on these topics from a position of ignorance and not having a clue what they are talking about.

I watched a talk by Danny Dorling which picked up on these huge changes. I found it very good and quite entertaining:

https://youtu.be/AM5-Ihrztc4

Seth Brundle

The Irish Times are reporting that Simon Coveney is relaying the frustrations of several EU members at the UK who are failing to live up to their side of the agreement. Apparently, there are calls to ensure that the UK to honour the agreement they signed up to.

EU could retaliate against Britain over protocol, Coveney warns
Minister says status quo not sustainable as some states advocate possibility of tariffs
Britain’s lack of co-operation in implementing the Northern Ireland protocol is driving European capitals to push for a tougher response from the European Commission, Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney has warned. Speaking in London ahead of a meeting on Friday morning with Brexit minister David Frost, Mr Coveney said Ireland wished to avoid a situation where the EU would take retaliatory action against Britain.

“This is an EU issue where more and more EU countries are asking the hard questions. We signed up to an agreement. It’s not being implemented. Why not? And what are the consequences of that? And that is why I think we are at a moment now when, before this issue becomes a more controversial issue politically between the UK and the EU, we really have to try to secure some of the compromises and flexibilities and pragmatism that has been asked for to actually make this protocol work in a way that the vast majority of people in Northern Ireland can, I hope, accept,” Mr Coveney said.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/eu-could-retaliate-against-britain-over-protocol-coveney-warns-1.4583673?mode=amp

Enzokk

More from Coveney as he is due to meet David Frost to see if there is a way forward instead of legal action,

EU frustration at lack of protocol progress - Coveney

Speaking in London ahead of a breakfast meeting with UK minister for EU relations David Frost, Mr Coveney said that a number of EU states are becoming frustrated with the process and the lack of progress being made on the protocol.

He said it risks becoming a destabilising factor in Northern Ireland and in the UK's relationship with the EU.

Mr Coveney said the key message for Mr Frost is that the two sides have to act in partnership together, rather than going it alone with unilateral actions.

He repeated his call for the UK government to consider signing a veterinary agreement with the EU, which he said would do away with the need for some 80% of the checks on food imports from Britain to Northern Ireland.

Tony Connelly has a twitter thread about the issue as well,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1400683894744272901?s=20

I will post the last couple of tweets as well,

17/ Officials in Brussels and Dublin have grown increasingly angry at what they see as the UK placing the burden on “fixing” the Protocol entirely at the EU’s door.

18/ However, senior British figures, such as Lord Frost and the Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis, have accused the EU of taking a dogmatic approach to the protection of the EU’s single market at the expense of everyday life in Northern Ireland.

So there we have the state of play. The UK is undermining the NIP by only listening to a party that it screwed over to get Brexit done and that has less than 1/3 of the vote in NI. It is also doing it by acting unilaterally and it seems to purpose is to get rid of it by 1000 cuts.

So either the UK stands strong and the EU takes action to hurt them as per the agreements. Or, the UK acts the strongman and bows to pressure at the last minute, just like they have done all through this.

CelticRambler

Enzokk wrote: »

So either the UK stands strong and the EU takes action to hurt them as per the agreements. Or, the UK acts the strongman and bows to pressure at the last minute, just like they have done all through this.

Probably the latter, and (ultimate irony) they'll probably surrender on account of the cheese-eaters:

Mr Coveney ... repeated his call for the UK government to consider signing a veterinary agreement with the EU, which he said would do away with the need for some 80% of the checks on food imports from Britain to Northern Ireland.

Alignment of veterinary/SPS rules will also considerably reduce the obstacles for Cross-Channel travel, not just for commercial trade but also for families taking the car/camper/horse to France.

And therein lies another opportunity for smoke-and-mirrors: Johnson, Frost & Co. will pander to the DUP, spin their unilateral treaty-breaking behaviour as "standing strong" in the face of EU oppression ("see tabloid press for confirmation/validation"), then quietly confirm Britain's new status as a rule-taker just in time for post-Covid Brits to return from their Continental holidays, proclaiming that "nothing has changed" and therefore Brexit is/was/always will be a success.

peter kern

sometimes you wonder how strong the eu really is since we need the help of the USA for sanctions against corruption in bulgaria ... its quite embarassing really.

https://www.politico.eu/article/us-sanctions-bulgaria-power-brokers-for-graft/

stuff has been signed for many years but nothing happens to improve corruption in bulgaria.
same with the poland and hungary issues you need 26 out of 27 countries to do really something and of course poland and hungry are not going to vote against themselves .

i guess at the end of the day the eu really needs to focus more on itslef than brexit.

Sam Russell

peter kern wrote: »

sometimes you wonder how strong the eu really is since we need the help of the USA for sanctions against corruption in bulgaria ... its quite embarassing really.

https://www.politico.eu/article/us-sanctions-bulgaria-power-brokers-for-graft/

stuff has been signed for many years but nothing happens to improve corruption in Bulgaria.
same with the Poland and Hungary issues you need 26 out of 27 countries to do really something and of course Poland and hungry are not going to vote against themselves .

i guess at the end of the day the EU really needs to focus more on itself than Brexit.

Bulgaria, Poland and Hungary are all recipients of EU funds. That is where to start.

If corruption in Bulgaria is occurring, involving misappropriation of EU funds, then the EU has robust procedures to deal with it. Why is this not happening?

We saw during our financial problems that the EU did not rush to our aid because French and German banks would be the losers. (Or so it was said). Maybe there are a few high powered actors in the larger EU countries who benefit from the corruption.

The EU is far from perfect.

Kermit.de.frog

France doesn't register in any of this. It thinks it does.

Ultimately when it comes to the crunch between EU and German national interest the latter will trump all consideration.

If it's in the German national interest that corruption ends and these countries are punished you'll see a ton a bricks come down on them.

It's not sufficiently in the German national interest and thus nothing is done.

CelticRambler

What am I missing here? In what way are American sanctions on Bulgaria anything to do with Brexit?

Unless one is saying the assertion that, in Bulgaria, "the scale of unfolding graft scandals over the past year has laid bare how an oligarchic mafia has effectively captured the state by exercising control through institutions such as the judiciary, security services and media." could be extrapolated to the Tory Party in the UK, and we can expect the US to impose sanctions against the same level of corruption demonstrated by the Johnson administration?

peter kern

CelticRambler wrote: »

What am I missing here? In what way are American sanctions on Bulgaria anything to do with Brexit?

Unless one is saying the assertion that, in Bulgaria, "the scale of unfolding graft scandals over the past year has laid bare how an oligarchic mafia has effectively captured the state by exercising control through institutions such as the judiciary, security services and media." could be extrapolated to the Tory Party in the UK, and we can expect the US to impose sanctions against the same level of corruption demonstrated by the Johnson administration?

i guess its an indication how slow the eu will move to force the uk to fulfil their obligation.

pixelburp

peter kern wrote: »

i guess its an indication how slow the eu will move to force the uk to fulfil their obligation.

And how should they move in your eyes? There's only so much the EU can do to force the issue when the other side constantly refuses to engage, or rips up its own agreements. With literal peace on the line in NI, what should the EU be doing differently here that's comparable with acting on national corruption?

peter kern

pixelburp wrote: »

And how should they move in your eyes? There's only so much the EU can do to force the issue when the other side constantly refuses to engage, or rips up its own agreements. With literal peace on the line in NI, what should the EU be doing differently here that's comparable with acting on national corruption?

i think one mistake of the eu was when the uk tried to f.ck around with the eu during the negotiations on this subject the eu should have said straight no talks until this is resolved proper and there should have been clearer fines agreed if treaty is not followed up in time. it was fairly clear in the last 2 years that issues would occur with NI as the uk new they are in deep problems.
so its not real news.
and not that northern ireladn is not important but it seems to become a bit of what was fishing was in 2019 . loads to talk but in reality on an eu level small fish.
and if it is really a big deal than i guess the eu has to show the uk that it will cost them a lot entering stuff into the eu and make it really really difficult for uk exports by slowing down controlls into france netherlands citing that we have to look for iligal imported stuff from the uk into eu
but just talking will have little impact another meetting here another talk there i can t see it work it dosnt work in bulgaria either.

If we remove the fluff:


"And how should they move in your eyes?"

"the eu has to show the uk that it will cost them a lot entering stuff into the eu and make it really really difficult for uk exports by slowing down controlls into france netherlands citing that we have to look for iligal imported stuff from the uk into eu"


Nonsense really. As if the EU is going to come together and decide that that is what needs to be done about Northern Ireland. Just skip all of the actual things it can legally do and pull a UK on it.

fly_agaric

peter kern wrote: »

i guess its an indication how slow the eu will move to force the uk to fulfil their obligation.

It's not completely comparable. Bulgaria is an EU member.

The EU does afaik try and uncover corrupt usage of EU funds and fines countries/claws back money after the fact (Olaf) but that is not going to make the news, and ultimately it is probably a minor irritant for oligarchs or venal politcians in member states like Poland, Hungary (or Bulgaria) who have already benefitted and retain power to carry on their corruption in future if the electorates will not remove them.

For any sterner action (like the "sanctions" against individuals in your article about Bulgaria?) the member states will generally have to agree in the Council and the govt. that is to be punished will oppose that. If there are 2 corrupt countries/governments that can lie each other up, situation is even more difficult as reagrds stronger action happening.

The UK is not an EU member any more. All it can do is try & play divide and rule games from the outside. That should make it easier for the EU to respond. It is still likely to be slow IMO as the EU is fairly legalistic and even if technically it does not have to, it is (IMO) going to take time to seek some consensus from/discuss with member states before reacting further to the UK refusing to abide by the Withdrawal agreement.

However, as pointed out above if the UK is set on this course and willing to take the hit, I don't think there is much more the EU can do really.

ClosedAccountFuzzy

I think the EU has proven to be very weak when it comes to dealing with rogue members, but one could equally argue the US is incapable of dealing with the aftermath of an extremely corrupt problem within its own democracy.

It’s harder to solve those issues from within than just applying sanctions from outside. Bulgaria has quite obviously caused some issue in the US and the Americans have no qualms tackling a distant foreign power - there’s no fallout or push back possible domestically, but for the EU this is more equivalent to American government’s domestic issues dealing with some state that’s decided to go off into la la land. It’s a far more complicated issue as it has internal political power and abilities to veto or sympathetic states will back it up.

However, there are several recent EU members that are falling way below minimum standards on democracy and rule of law and seem to me modelling themselves on modern Russia. I think a line has to be drawn. If it’s not the systems will just be abused and the standards will slip.

My suspicion is that you’ll see an inner core and outer shell emerge if this can’t be fixed. The EU has always had an ability to move around a problem if it’s insurmountable.

That’s also something the UK isn’t seeing. The EU is likely to just move around the UK. If the situation doesn’t improve I don’t see it coming to any ultimatum, but rather just a slow and polite disconnection and being ignored. That’s in some ways far worse for the UK as it could just see them slowly becoming less and less relevant. Issues tend to be contained and adapted to, potentially without a resolution.

From the EU point of view there is no urgency to resolving this. The UK needs a resolution fast. The EU has all the time in the world to get this right.

Strazdas

Enzokk wrote: »

More from Coveney as he is due to meet David Frost to see if there is a way forward instead of legal action,

EU frustration at lack of protocol progress - Coveney



Tony Connelly has a twitter thread about the issue as well,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1400683894744272901?s=20

I will post the last couple of tweets as well,



So there we have the state of play. The UK is undermining the NIP by only listening to a party that it screwed over to get Brexit done and that has less than 1/3 of the vote in NI. It is also doing it by acting unilaterally and it seems to purpose is to get rid of it by 1000 cuts.

So either the UK stands strong and the EU takes action to hurt them as per the agreements. Or, the UK acts the strongman and bows to pressure at the last minute, just like they have done all through this.

The Brexit government couldn't give a flying fig about the DUP or the people of NI. I suspect their reasons for trying to undermine the protocol are more sinister - perhaps they think it will play well with the base and the tabloids and be a boost for Johnson.

pixelburp

Strazdas wrote: »

The Brexit government couldn't give a flying fig about the DUP or the people of NI. I suspect their reasons for trying to undermine the protocol are more sinister - perhaps they think it will play well with the base and the tabloids and be a boost for Johnson.

In the long run, the DUPs propping up of May's government may yet be seen as the moment the glass in the dome first spidered a crack. Great Britain held to ransom by the unwanted problem child with dependency issues. Between that and the continuing logjam that is the North executive, you'd have to imagine the resentment from the higher rungs of British institutions has never been higher. The lack of self awareness from hardened unionism to read the room and how they're bordering on persona non Grata within the establishment continues to depress.

CelticRambler

pixelburp wrote: »

Great Britain held to ransom by the unwanted problem child with dependency issues. Between that and the continuing logjam that is the North executive, you'd have to imagine the resentment from the higher rungs of British institutions has never been higher.

The thing is, though: where's the evidence that anyone in these higher rungs is feeling any resentment towards the troublesome Irish? If anything has characterised these first five months of Brexit-for-real it is, on the one hand, utter silence on the subject from almost all British institutions; and on the other - as also seen on this thread - lots of noise and overt provocation by habitual trolls falling back on their tired old slogans from the past, but with nothing of substance behind them.

In that context, there's really nothing for the DUP types to be more aware of than they ever were before.

Call me Al

Strazdas wrote: »

The Brexit government couldn't give a flying fig about the DUP or the people of NI. I suspect their reasons for trying to undermine the protocol are more sinister - perhaps they think it will play well with the base and the tabloids and be a boost for Johnson.

Completely agree.
The NIP is useful fodder for newspaper headlines for them. It plays well to the base in a "you’ll not tell us plucky Brits what to do" kind of way.
Equally the DUP useful fools. Theyve been used throughout.They are irrelevant when it comes to votes in Buckinghamshire or Gloucestershire so in the grand scheme of things they don't matter to the ordinary tory MP.
The sad reality for the UK is that the NIP is literally the only card they can play, abd it's useful as it isn't on their shores. It's across the sea. They will keep trying to extract value off the back of it, because it's all they've got.

Call me Al

Edit

Nody

So UK has managed to sign a FTA with Iceland, Norway and Lichtenstein which is worse than what they had in EU with all three countries getting better tariffs. UK's big win is once again a cheese quota which will get lower tariffs compared to WTO (compared to zero in EU). Can someone please explain to me what is Liz Truss obsession with UK cheese exports yet again? Does she have family working in the cheese industry or something? Because this is becoming more than a meme now with her constant push for cheese exemptions at the cost of things that actually matters...

BlitzKrieg

peter kern wrote: »

sometimes you wonder how strong the eu really is since we need the help of the USA for sanctions against corruption in bulgaria ... its quite embarassing really.

https://www.politico.eu/article/us-sanctions-bulgaria-power-brokers-for-graft/

stuff has been signed for many years but nothing happens to improve corruption in bulgaria.
same with the poland and hungary issues you need 26 out of 27 countries to do really something and of course poland and hungry are not going to vote against themselves .

i guess at the end of the day the eu really needs to focus more on itslef than brexit.

I'm only looking into this now but from what I can gather the US sanctions only lock out a list of 58 companies from operating in the US or with US citizens

As a result of today’s action, all property and interests in property of the persons above that are in the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons are blocked and must be reported to OFAC. In addition, any entities that are owned, directly or indirectly, 50 percent or more by one or more blocked persons are also blocked. Unless authorized by a general or specific license issued by OFAC, or otherwise exempt, OFAC’s regulations generally prohibit all transactions by U.S. persons or within (or transiting) the United States that involve any property or interests in property of designated or otherwise blocked persons. The prohibitions include the making of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services by, to, or for the benefit of any blocked person or the receipt of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services from any such person.

Which considering the companies listed doesnt (primarily bulgarian lottery and football companies) necessarily mean much beyond perhaps blocking them from running away to the US or generally getting the US involved, it's not quite on the level of asking Dubai to hand over Bojikov to face trail in Bulgaria.

From what I can put together Vassel Bojikov was already the focus of a huge criminal investigation in Bulgaria, to the point that he had ran away to dubai and a most of his assets (the ones the US just sanctioned) had already been seized by the Bulgarian government

https://balkaninsight.com/2021/01/04/vassilbojkov/

His business interests were hurt after his highly profitable National Lottery company was nationalised in January. Numerous charges were also brought against him for: leading an organised crime group; coercion; attempted bribery; withholding intellectual property and tax evasion, among others. Bojkov has been hiding out in Dubai for almost a full year.

Which is the kicker I think.

Despite what some seem to think and most of the UK, the EU does not stick it's head in national affairs unless it is justifiably proven to be a cross border issue or requested to be involved by the national government.

From what I can piece together, Bulgaria has already started a process dealing with this mafia crook, seized large chunks of his wealth and he's funding an opposition party to fight back, while yes it's all a bit crazy and no doubt there is a level of corruption going on it all sounds very domestic.

Looking at the list of companies sanctioned:

OFAC is also designating 58 entities, including Bulgarian Summer, registered in Bulgaria that are owned or controlled by Bojkov or one of his companies:

Vabo-2005 EOOD, Digital Services EAD, Ede 2 EOOD, Nove Internal EOOD, Moststroy Iztok AD, Galenit Invest AD, Vabo 2008 EOOD, Vertex Properties EOOD, VB Management EOOD, Va Bo Company EOOD, Vabo Management EOOD, Vabo 2012 EOOD, Prim BG EAD, Eurogroup Engineering EAD, Kristiano GR 53 JSC AD, Nove-AD-Holding AD, Bul Partners Travel OOD, Bullet Trade OOD, Caritex Lucky AD, Sizif V OOD, Thrace Foundation, Vabo Internal AD, and Bulgarian Summer are owned or controlled by Bojkov.
Rex Loto AD is owned or controlled by Vabo-2005 EOOD.
Eurobet Partners OOD is owned or controlled by Digital Services EAD.
Eurobet OOD is owned or controlled by Eurobet Partners OOD.
Eurobet Trading EOOD is owned or controlled by Eurobet OOD.
Vabo Systems EOOD, Vato 2002 EOOD, Nove Development EOOD, Property-VB OOD, Trans Nove OOD, Nove Partners OOD, Adler BG AD, Efbet Partners OOD, and Internews 98 OOD are owned or controlled by Nove Internal EOOD.
Eurosadruzhie OOD and Decart OOD are owned or controlled by Vabo Systems EOOD.
Numerical Games OOD, Lottery Distributions OOD, National Lottery OOD, and Eurofootball OOD are owned or controlled by Eurosadruzhie OOD.
National Lottery AD is owned or controlled by Nove Development EOOD.
Meliora Academica EOOD, Domino Games OOD, and ML Build EAD are owned or controlled by Decart OOD.
Games Unlimited OOD is owned or controlled by VB Management EOOD.
Evrobet - Rumania EOOD and Old Games EOOD are owned or controlled by Games Unlimited OOD.
Vihrogonika AD is owned or controlled by Vabo Management EOOD.
Vabo 2017 OOD and Lottery BG OOD are owned or controlled by Vabo 2012 EOOD.
Siguro EOOD is owned or controlled by Eurogroup Engineering EAD.
Trakia-Papir 96 OOD, Parkstroy-Sofia OOD, Publishing House Sport LTD, and CSKA Basketball Club are owned or controlled by Nove-AD-Holding AD.
Ancient Heritage AD is owned or controlled by Thrace Foundation.

It does look like this is overwhelmingly a domestic issue.


Which yeah it sucks a bit that corruption is ongoing, but we are (again despite what some think) not a federal entity, countries have almost all the power domestically and also the responsibility.

ClosedAccountFuzzy

Nody wrote: »

So UK has managed to sign a FTA with Iceland, Norway and Lichtenstein which is worse than what they had in EU with all three countries getting better tariffs. UK's big win is once again a cheese quota which will get lower tariffs compared to WTO (compared to zero in EU). Can someone please explain to me what is Liz Truss obsession with UK cheese exports yet again? Does she have family working in the cheese industry or something? Because this is becoming more than a meme now with her constant push for cheese exemptions at the cost of things that actually matters...

To be fair, she has made her position on cheese exports abundantly clear for several years:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YxhIq6t6Fk

All that matters I suspect is headlines in tabloids that don’t understand what the UK really makes its living on and it’s definitely not cheese.

Headlines about successful trade deals, even if they significantly worse than what they had in the first place, are big news that supports a case that Brexit is great.

They continue to report these as if there was never any trade with the EEA countries before, even though they had full access to their markets for years as part of the EEA / EFTA agreements with the EU.

Strazdas

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

One thing I could never get about whole “furegners coming here to swindle our welfare” Brexiteers latched onto
is that if this was true why would greedy welfare swindlers chose uk over Ireland next door where welfare system is exponentially better.

UK has probably the worst social welfare system in western Europe. Anyone who thinks people would move there to sign on is totally deluded.

Kermit.de.frog

Strazdas wrote: »

UK has probably the worst social welfare system in western Europe. Anyone who thinks people would move there to sign on is totally deluded.

It could be very successfully argued that our welfare system is detrimental to work ethic and innovation in this society.

paul71

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It could be very successfully argued that our welfare system is detrimental to work ethic and innovation in this society.

It might be argued, but not successfully. Irish workers are ranked the most efficient on the planet.

Kermit.de.frog

paul71 wrote: »

It might be argued, but not successfully. Irish workers are ranked the most efficient on the planet.

I completely disagree.

We have a chronic, and getting worse, generational welfare dependency culture.

Anyway this is off topic.