Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

Peregrinus wrote: »

I think most accounts for the stagnation of UK real wages at the low end of the market point to low worker productivity as a major factor. If that's correct, then contracting the labour supply without also improving productivity will not result in higher wages; just in fewer jobs.

Sam Russell wrote: »

Another factor to take into account is the general rate of inflation. If the general rate of inflation is rising, then the effect of an enterprise increasing its prices is more acceptable to customers because 'it's inflation' and it is just accepted.

Which takes us back to the "parasitic migrant" myth, and the other side of the equation: higher prices can only be paid by those with higher incomes, and these are/were the better qualified EU migrants who are being encouraged to go home, or not come to the UK in the first place.

Low-skilled, mostly non-EU, migrants don't have much disposable income, so they're not going to support the businesses that depend on discretionary spending.

Against the backdrop of an ageing population, these competing forces create the ideal conditions for some seismic changes in the British employment landscape. It's hard to imagine that it'll resemble what we know today in the 49-and-a-half Mogg-years still left on the Dividend clock.

Sam Russell

CelticRambler wrote: »

Against the backdrop of an ageing population, these competing forces create the ideal conditions for some seismic changes in the British employment landscape. It's hard to imagine that it'll resemble what we know today in the 49-and-a-half Mogg-years still left on the Dividend clock.

I had not realised that the Mogg clock had actually started ticking.

Of course the Barnier clock has long stopped ticking - well I thought it had, but Frosty and his DUP friends keep trying to restart it.

Kermit.de.frog

Whispers are being raised again in relation to Ireland's place in the single market.

Said this over and over the last 12 months that it's a serious possibility that if the UK refuses to uphold agreements Ireland will simply be separated from the single market for goods. That risk is very much still alive as Politico reports.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-diplomats-emergency-brexit-plan-ireland-uk-single-market-access/

timetogo1

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Whispers are being raised again in relation to Ireland's place in the single market.

Said this over and over the last 12 months that it's a serious possibility that if the UK refuses to uphold agreements Ireland will simply be separated from the single market for goods. That risk is very much still alive as Politico reports.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-diplomats-emergency-brexit-plan-ireland-uk-single-market-access/

This would basically be giving in to the UK demands. Sounds daft to me to reward the UK for being idiots.

Would it not be better to put the goods checks on the island of Ireland between the north & south and forfeit the deal that the UK has now until they can figure out the NIP?

Sam Russell

timetogo1 wrote: »

This would basically be giving in to the UK demands. Sounds daft to me to reward the UK for being idiots.

Would it not be better to put the goods checks on the island of Ireland between the north & south and forfeit the deal that the UK has now until they can figure out the NIP?

Or for the EU to retaliate with sanctions - punitive sanctions - designed to cause maximum harm to the UK resulting in some sense being brought to the NI issue.

The Raging Bile Duct

Punishing a member of the EU for the actions of a third country would have serious consequences for the integrity of the union imo.

pixelburp

That reads like backroom tattle, fueled by frustration, being published as a legitimate strategy being considered: if an EU state found itself punished for the actions of a 3rd Country, it would have huge ramifications for the strength of the union. The whole point of the EU and Single Market is for a sense of equal & easy partnership across disparate nations: this nuclear option would essentially declare that union to be utterly meaningless at the first speed-bump. It would also erode EU support within Ireland and other nations overnight. And for what? To fold in the face of a belligerent external force?

KildareP

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Whispers are being raised again in relation to Ireland's place in the single market.

Said this over and over the last 12 months that it's a serious possibility that if the UK refuses to uphold agreements Ireland will simply be separated from the single market for goods. That risk is very much still alive as Politico reports.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-diplomats-emergency-brexit-plan-ireland-uk-single-market-access/

This is what the UK wants to happen.

If the UK is granted this outcome, they now know that going forward they just need to push hard enough and for long enough and they will eventually get what they want.

With EU27 solidarity nuked, they can start their other aim which is to approach each EU nation individually and start playing them off against one another and do FTA's on a per-nation basis as opposed to EU-wide.

They can then go one step further and start playing individual EU27 nations off against other non-EU countries - again, pile on the pressure hard enough and long enough and eventually something will give. If the EU will isolate Ireland, they'll just as easily isolate another EU27 nation if push comes to shove. Every nation for themselves.

I'd thus go as far to say that this outcome would in fact see the beginning of the end of the EU as we know it - the ultimate Brexit win.
Thus it simply cannot happen if the EU wants to achieve it's outcome: to protect and maintain the integrity of the EU.

Seth Brundle

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Whispers are being raised again in relation to Ireland's place in the single market.

Said this over and over the last 12 months that it's a serious possibility that if the UK refuses to uphold agreements Ireland will simply be separated from the single market for goods. That risk is very much still alive as Politico reports.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-diplomats-emergency-brexit-plan-ireland-uk-single-market-access/

The only person who has been named to claim this is Ray Basset which says a lot about this stupid proposal

https://twitter.com/nealerichmond/status/1402523844997431296

54and56

Peregrinus wrote: »

McDonald's will seek to maximise profits, but this doesn't necessarily translate into recovering the full cost of the wage increase through price increases. The reason for this is of course that price increases will cause sales to fall. Maintaining your margin but on a lower volume of sales means lower profits. So McDonald's will be looking for the sweet spot - how much of the wage increase can they pass to customers before the effect on sales is such that this costs more than simply absorbing the wage increase would cost?

Not in an economy where wages (and inflation) are rising.

If pre wage increases a £2 Big Mac (for ease of discussion) cost 0.5% of your £400 weekly wages and post wage increases your Big Mac costs £2.25 but your wages have gone up to £450 a Big Mac will still cost you 0.5% of your weekly wages so consumption will remain pretty similar all other things being equal.

All that will really have happened is the international purchasing power of £terling will have declined which may not appear to affect the average Joe until they start seeing the cost of petrol and electricity, imported food stuffs, foreign holidays etc getting much more "expensive" and the UK becoming increasingly less competitive relative to its peers for inward investment etc.

fly_agaric

KildareP wrote: »

This is what the UK wants to happen.

If the UK is granted this outcome, they now know that going forward they just need to push hard enough and for long enough and they will eventually get what they want.

With EU27 solidarity nuked, they can start their other aim which is to approach each EU nation individually and start playing them off against one another and do FTA's on a per-nation basis as opposed to EU-wide.

They can then go one step further and start playing individual EU27 nations off against other non-EU countries - again, pile on the pressure hard enough and long enough and eventually something will give. If the EU will isolate Ireland, they'll just as easily isolate another EU27 nation if push comes to shove. Every nation for themselves.

I'd thus go as far to say that this outcome would in fact see the beginning of the end of the EU as we know it - the ultimate Brexit win.
Thus it simply cannot happen if the EU wants to achieve it's outcome: to protect and maintain the integrity of the EU.

You're right that it might be what UK want to happen (or what they would see as one good possible outcome from approach they are taking - Ireland distanced from rest of EU) but there's some problems with this analysis I think.
The single market + integrity & good functioning of it is vital to EU, it is something all the members agree on. They will cooperate to protect that. There's other members in the EU with very tricky external border issues they have to deal with.
NI border and partition of Ireland + unfinished geopolitical business with the UK leaving many Irish citizens somewhat unwillingly under their jurisdiction is a big problem for us, but not unique.

So if agreement with the UK collapses, and Ireland refuses to work with the EU + insists on keeping a fully open NI goods border/situation as it is today, the other members will (eventually) respond to protect the EU single market.
Yes it's a very bad outcome for the EU as regards solidarity with Ireland, but they'll have done their best and sometimes the needs of the many outweight the needs of the few. Or needs of the one here...we are only EU member for whom an "open" NI border might be judged by the government to be more important than protection and proper functioning of the EU single market.
Allowing UK to do an end run around single market and effectively ignore the rules would be much more likely to be the "beginning of the end of the EU as we know it" IMO than Ireland having membership of EU single market downgraded in some way because of NI situation and our refusal to face up to it in extremis.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Below standard post and response deleted.

CelticRambler

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Whispers are being raised again in relation to Ireland's place in the single market.

Said this over and over the last 12 months that it's a serious possibility that if the UK refuses to uphold agreements Ireland will simply be separated from the single market for goods. That risk is very much still alive as Politico reports.

Ah, yes: the infamous un-named EU diplomat, beloved of all Brexiters (and Eurosceptics). I'm 100% certain that any journalist who made the effort could find an "EU diplomat" prepared to discuss possible "emergency measures" without really having the foggiest idea of what was actually happening. That confidence is based on talking to otherwise apparently intelligent, well-educated people living within an hour's drive of the EU buildings in Strasbourg who still, 100 years after the events in question, haven't learnt that Ireland and Britain are two separate states.

So, sure, maybe there's some Front Rassemblement National MEP wandering around the corridors talking about checking goods coming from Ireland. He probably also talking about beefing up the checks on the France-Italy border to stop those nasty parasitic refugees coming over the Alps.

ClosedAccountFuzzy

I’ve a horrible feeling we will end up in some odd Venn diagram of being in the EU, the Eurozone and the Single Market but with a customs border. Something like our semi detached arrangement with Schengen due to our semi detached relationship with with the UK.

Personally, I would find that unacceptable and I think it could undermine our domestic economy, and prospects as an FDI location, but I also don’t assume that isn’t also part of the agenda of our competitors or that they particularly care.

The British government is in reality the English government. They never understood or cared that they had a complex EU land border. Many of them don’t really even seem to accept that Ireland is an independent country. It’s a bit like Russian attitudes to various former territories, but with a huge extra dose of exceptionalism that makes it seem somehow more acceptable because they’re better at PR.

It’s a total mess and I’m not convinced it’s resolvable.

Brexit is nothing to do with us, yet we’ll be the ones left paying costs for it.

Great next door neighbours! They don’t give a toss and never really have. We’re just an inconvenience for existing basically.

It takes an incredible level of political nastiness to mess up Northern Ireland, and continuously play jingoistic games with it. They are fully aware of how fragile that place is, but that also plays into their agenda of flag waving stuff - it’s just one branch of extreme British nationalism in England inflaming another in Northern Ireland - they’re feeding each other’s paranoia about threats to sovereignty and foreign influences etc etc and high on tabloid headlines.

I also think you’re looking at any shred of pragmatism in the DUP having departed with Arleen and the future of NI is likely to be one with the assembly collapsed and government in Belfast until the next elections. That creates a vacuum and a space where the DUP will just be able to rant and rave, with no need to be sensitive to anything at all and it will continue to feed into tabloids and English nationalism’s excitement.

I’ve a more and more pessimistic view of the whole thing the further it goes. There just isn’t likely to be any statesmanship coming from London and Belfast isn’t likely to be capable of providing anything other than political dysfunctionality.

FuzzyThinking

FuzzyThinking wrote: »

I’ve a horrible feeling we will end up in some odd Venn diagram of being in the EU, the Eurozone and the Single Market but with a customs border. Something like our semi detached arrangement with Schengen due to our semi detached relationship with with the UK.

Personally, I would find that unacceptable and I think it could undermine our domestic economy, and prospects as an FDI location, but I also don’t assume that isn’t also part of the agenda of our competitors or that they particularly care.

The British government is in reality the English government. They never understood or cared that they had a complex EU land border. Many of them don’t really even seem to accept that Ireland is an independent country. It’s a bit like Russian attitudes to various former territories, but with a huge extra dose of exceptionalism that makes it seem somehow more acceptable because they’re better at PR.

It’s a total mess and I’m not convinced it’s resolvable.

Brexit is nothing to do with us, yet we’ll be the ones left paying costs for it.

Great next door neighbours! They don’t give a toss and never really have. We’re just an inconvenience for existing basically.

It takes an incredible level of political nastiness to mess up Northern Ireland, and continuously play jingoistic games with it. They are fully aware of how fragile that place is, but that also plays into their agenda of flag waving stuff - it’s just one branch of extreme British nationalism in England inflaming another in Northern Ireland - they’re feeding each other’s paranoia about threats to sovereignty and foreign influences etc etc and high on tabloid headlines.

Feel the same. No one would support checks at the border so we'll be forced to choose limiting our access to the SM instead of harming the GFA.

Imo, the EU can only survive that with extraordinary measures against the UK, totally outside of whatever legal mechanisms have been agreed. Complete embargo of absolutely everything.

ClosedAccountFuzzy

The problem is that the Tories will gladly shift the burden onto Ireland and the media over there are quite happy to make it “the Irish question.”

They’re already blaming the EU for not protecting the UK against the realities of global trade and how dare they treat the UK as a 3rd country. It’s special! Haven’t you heard?

It’s always someone else’s fault - especially if they’re not a Tory.

pixelburp

CelticRambler wrote: »

Ah, yes: the infamous un-named EU diplomat, beloved of all Brexiters (and Eurosceptics). I'm 100% certain that any journalist who made the effort could find an "EU diplomat" prepared to discuss possible "emergency measures" without really having the foggiest idea of what was actually happening. That confidence is based on talking to otherwise apparently intelligent, well-educated people living within an hour's drive of the EU buildings in Strasbourg who still, 100 years after the events in question, haven't learnt that Ireland and Britain are two separate states.

So, sure, maybe there's some Front Rassemblement National MEP wandering around the corridors talking about checking goods coming from Ireland. He probably also talking about beefing up the checks on the France-Italy border to stop those nasty parasitic refugees coming over the Alps.

Well, exactly. There wasn't a single named source in that article, which if nothing else is just sloppy and betrays the clickbait of the piece. The article could be talking about anyone from the thousands of civil servants milling about the halls, the majority not anywhere near the rooms of power. Here we are talking about a nuclear option that would inherently betray the entire premise of the EU and Single Market in one deft stroke - just to appease a 3rd Country after 4 years of standing firm? That's just nonsense.

TBH, it reads more like having a conclusion and bias, then working backwards to find the proof. Any minute now, the EU is going to betray us, throw us to the wolves. This has been repeated ad nauseum since the moment Article 50 was invoked and hasn't ever come to pass - the whole "Article 16" used as a convenient j'accue moment of the EU's mask supposedly slipping. Rather than what it was, a brief breakdown of communication.

Leave Ireland in the wind and the EU is dead. Everyone knows this, especially the EU itself.

KildareP

fly_agaric wrote: »

You're right that it might be what UK want to happen (or what they would see as one good possible outcome from approach they are taking - Ireland distanced from rest of EU) but there's some problems with this analysis I think.
The single market + integrity & good functioning of it is vital to EU, it is something all the members agree on. They will cooperate to protect that. There's other members in the EU with very tricky external border issues they have to deal with.
NI border and partition of Ireland + unfinished geopolitical business with the UK leaving many Irish citizens somewhat unwillingly under their jurisdiction is a big problem for us, but not unique.

So if agreement with the UK collapses, and Ireland refuses to work with the EU + insists on keeping a fully open NI goods border/situation as it is today, the other members will (eventually) respond to protect the EU single market.
Yes it's a very bad outcome for the EU as regards solidarity with Ireland, but they'll have done their best and sometimes the needs of the many outweight the needs of the few. Or needs of the one here...we are only EU member for whom an "open" NI border might be judged by the government to be more important than protection and proper functioning of the EU single market.
Allowing UK to do an end run around single market and effectively ignore the rules would be much more likely to be the "beginning of the end of the EU as we know it" IMO than Ireland having membership of EU single market downgraded in some way because of NI situation and our refusal to face up to it in extremis.

The EU will need to escalate things significantly before we get to that stage.

The TCA instantly and indefinitely suspended.
Punitive trade sanctions on anything coming from the UK - goods or services.
Make it an offence to knowingly import or assist with the import of any UK sourced goods or services with similarly punitive fines for anyone found guilty. Same as with Revenue and taxes, the onus is on you to prove you're compliant rather than for Revenue to catch you out.
Ban on the supply of any EU goods or services to the UK (think Google and Huawei).
Exclusion of the UK from all EU airspace and territorial waters.

While this won't stop "leaky" non-compliant goods and services from entering, it will very quickly and very sharply hit the UK on the high level, high value goods and services on which they rely upon both financially and reputationally.

If they make an EU member state take the brunt before a foreign entity it sends out a very stark global message.

cameramonkey

This article is just more wishful thinking by the Tories. Everyone knows that they will not stand up to the EU over the NIP.
They will wriggle and squirm but there is no way they will put the interests of the Unionists and particularly the DUP ahead of theirs. At the moment the NIP is a handy stick to beat the EU with and they can encourage the UVF/UDA/DUP to cause a bit of mayhem and disruption to further their perceived victimhood. The UK will use their useful idiots in the north as long as they are needed and then drop them like a hot potato. The Tories have backed down repeatedly to the EU and will do so again when push comes to shove. They may get some minor concessions but the EU will not back down on the NIP as to do so would undermine the whole trade block. The loyal people of the six counties will just have to take another rabbit punch from the English as their reward for their loyalty. They are like a dog that comes back to their abusive master with the promise of another bone. It would be funny if it was not so tragic.

fly_agaric

KildareP wrote: »

The EU will need to escalate things significantly before we get to that stage.

The TCA instantly and indefinitely suspended.
Punitive trade sanctions on anything coming from the UK - goods or services.
Make it an offence to knowingly import or assist with the import of any UK sourced goods or services with similarly punitive fines for anyone found guilty. Same as with Revenue and taxes, the onus is on you to prove you're compliant rather than for Revenue to catch you out.
Ban on the supply of any EU goods or services to the UK (think Google and Huawei).
Exclusion of the UK from all EU airspace and territorial waters.

While this won't stop "leaky" non-compliant goods and services from entering, it will very quickly and very sharply hit the UK on the high level, high value goods and services on which they rely upon both financially and reputationally.

If they make an EU member state take the brunt before a foreign entity it sends out a very stark global message.

I'd agree with that and I think the EU will escalate and more time will pass before significant pressure comes on Ireland (absent a "black swan" event e.g. a major scandal blowing up on the continent that involves the NI hole in EU external border).

Don't think EU members would ever do some of the extreme things on your list ("Exclusion of the UK from all EU airspace and territorial waters") given they do not take such actions against likes of Russia and Turkey.

However if UK is set on breaking the agreement and willing to take the economic pain I judge there is nothing the EU can do to make them reverse course.

This UK government is fairly extreme and does not seem to be overly worried about effects of worsening relations with its neighbours on UK economy, so long as the people vote for them and they can stay in power.

CelticRambler

KildareP wrote: »

The EU will need to escalate things significantly before we get to that stage.

And that's exactly what the named sources are saying (Natalie Loiseau in particular) - since the TCA was ratified, there are all kinds of WTO-approved heavy weapons available for the EU to use against the UK.

So while Frost can stomp around NI, talking to terrorists like he's a Big Man, and rouse the rabble with the help of the tabloids, the real power and influence lies with whatever measures the EU decides to implement on major UK-based businesses. Especially if any such action has the backing of the US, these companies will not give two fingers to the EU and throw their paperwork in the bin, no matter how much Johnson urges them to.

Like it or not, the UK has decided to be a rule-taker on the international stage, and now it's time to follow the rules. The quick and easy way out of the "Northern Ireland problem" would be for the UK to agree to SPS alignment. Voilà: British sausages for everyone.

Oh, hang on a second ... what about all that Australian hormone-enhanced beef they were so keen on last month?

Strazdas

The whole point of the Irish Protocol is "to protect the integrity of the Single Market". Ireland being forced out of the Single Market would be a quite flagrant breach of this and unprecedented in the history of the SM (something I suspect that would also be entirely unacceptable to the EU26).

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Whispers are being raised again in relation to Ireland's place in the single market.

Said this over and over the last 12 months that it's a serious possibility that if the UK refuses to uphold agreements Ireland will simply be separated from the single market for goods. That risk is very much still alive as Politico reports.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-diplomats-emergency-brexit-plan-ireland-uk-single-market-access/

Is this the latest version of "ireland is about to be thrown under the bus" that we have been hearing for the last 5 years?

Anyday now. On ehte one hand the UK are saying the EU are bullying them, the UK didn't understand what they were agreeing to, the EU are being overly dogmatic and need to be pragmatic, but on the other the EU is just getting ready to thrown Ireland to the waves?

Think how much easier this all would have been if the EU jsut did that from the start. GReatest Trade deal in history , in record time. But for some reason, the EU seems to have stood by their principles.

But any day now,

McGiver

54and56 wrote:

Wages are an input cost just like steel or any other raw material and ultimately feed into end pricing. McDonalds or any other business won't sacrifice profits unless they have to and if wages go up across the economy so too will the selling price of their products.

In other words excessive wage increases not in line with productivity cause inflation of the whole economy. (minor in economics so I hope I got it right ).

UK labour productivity is amongst the lowest in the EU and OECD. Not great outlook overall. Either stagnation of wages and poverty or inflation of the whole economy and also relative poverty.

McGiver

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

Whispers are being raised again in relation to Ireland's place in the single market.

No, they are not. It's an OP. Nobody in the EU bar Johnsonist alies i.e. the clerical fascist regime in Poland and quasi-fascist populist regime of Hungary would consider this as an option.

WHL

What about a more subtle action that could be taken fairly quickly. Something like a £50 charge for a 14-day visa for U.K. passport holders to visit the EU (outside of CTA) with the proviso that it would be dropped as soon as the U.K. meet their commitments. It might put a bit of internal pressure on Boris and co.

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Whispers are being raised again in relation to Ireland's place in the single market.

Said this over and over the last 12 months that it's a serious possibility that if the UK refuses to uphold agreements Ireland will simply be separated from the single market for goods. That risk is very much still alive as Politico reports.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-diplomats-emergency-brexit-plan-ireland-uk-single-market-access/

From today's Irish Times, this article.

Headline:
EU dismisses suggestion Ireland could be shut out of single market

From the article:
Load of s***e,” said one EU official when asked about the report.

The Raging Bile Duct

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

From today's Irish Times, this article.

Headline:
EU dismisses suggestion Ireland could be shut out of single market

From the article:
Load of s***e,” said one EU official when asked about the report.

Hmm, I wonder was that EU official from France or Ireland. It's so hard to guess...

Strazdas

McGiver wrote: »

No, they are not. It's an OP. Nobody in the EU bar Johnsonist alies i.e. the clerical fascist regime in Poland and quasi-fascist populist regime of Hungary would consider this as an option.

The main reason it would never happen is that it would be happening at the behest of Brexiteers. Why would they go out of their way to help a country who hates them and who would like to see the EU destroyed?

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

The whole point of the Irish Protocol is "to protect the integrity of the Single Market". Ireland being forced out of the Single Market would be a quite flagrant breach of this and unprecedented in the history of the SM (something I suspect that would also be entirely unacceptable to the EU26).

Having Ireland in a separate bubble could quite easily become an Irish solution to an Irish problem which insulates the remaining EU26 from any cross border issues while allowing for limited SM dealing with the remaining EU.