Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's up to the EU to say that clearly to Britain and when Britain breaks the law again in the next few days sanctions need to be applied. Otherwise it's nothing less than appeasement.

:rolleyes: If you're that worked up about it, have you written to your MEP to complain?

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Johnson has been saying this for months. Free trade east west north south...

Yeah. Any day now there'll be lorries trundling across his new bridge from Scotland to NI. :rolleyes:

Kermit.de.frog

Those joint statements are very carefully considered and worded with a tooth comb after summit meetings. The fact it explicitly says unencumbered trade between Northern Ireland, GB and ROI (note: not the EU) leads me to believe the Celtic Sea border is on the table despite the panicked denials of the Politico story.

Interesting times ahead?

Piehead

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Those joint statements are very carefully considered and worded with a tooth comb after summit meetings. The fact it explicitly says unencumbered trade between Northern Ireland, GB and ROI (note: not the EU) leads me to believe the Celtic Sea border is on the table despite the panicked denials of the Politico story.

Interesting times ahead?

You seem a bit deluded over this

Kermit.de.frog

Piehead wrote: »

You seem a bit deluded over this

I always suspected the Politico story was true or at least had a big element of truth. No smoke without fire.

KildareP

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Those joint statements are very carefully considered and worded with a tooth comb after summit meetings. The fact it explicitly says unencumbered trade between Northern Ireland, GB and ROI (note: not the EU) leads me to believe the Celtic Sea border is on the table despite the panicked denials of the Politico story.

Interesting times ahead?

Compare UK readouts with the other party or parties on any press releases over the last 5 years. The UK are the master of spin.

What's more telling is the decision not to hold a press conference which appears to be unprecedented. I wonder why the UK would prefer not to hold one?

Kermit.de.frog

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Incredibly

Are you denying the statement that has just been issued? It says crystal clear there 'unencumbered trade between GB, NI and ROI'. Only one way for that to be the case.

You gotta read between the lines. That's not a mistake.

Again I suspect the Politico story was true.

pixelburp

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That's what the joint statement between POTUS and HMG says...deny all you like, it's there in black and white.

I always suspected the Politico story was true or at least had a big element of truth. No smoke without fire.

You wanting the story to be true does not mean the statement is some silver bullet; especially given the known results, clear as mud, that would transpire were the EU to decouple a member - utterly unwillingly - from the single market. You have noted antipathy towards the modern EU and it's clearly clouding you towards yearning for what would be effectively be the death of the EU. A press statement is not a statement of fact, it is a statement of desire. Whether it's in the realms of reality is another matter.

ClosedAccountFuzzy

If the EU did that, then what’s next? Maybe boot Finland out of the single market to facilitate better trade with Russia?

How about Cyprus? I mean it would make it easier for Turkey?

You can see where this would go…

Kermit.de.frog

pixelburp wrote: »

You wanting the story to be true does not mean the statement is some silver bullet; especially given the known results, clear as mud, that would transpire were the EU to decouple a member - utterly unwillingly - from the single market. You have noted antipathy towards the modern EU and it's clearly clouding you towards yearning for what would be effectively be the death of the EU. A press statement is not a statement of fact, it is a statement of desire. Whether it's in the realms of reality is another matter.

Politicians here were jumping up and down at the story in Politico to be fair.

Is there no part of you that thinks there may be some truth to that story or are you just happy to dismiss it?

Like I say no smoke without fire. That statement is very intentionally worded as they all are after these meetings.

ClosedAccountFuzzy

There’s been an awful lot of smoke without fire, particularly when it comes to British press or journalists talking about the EU.

In fact, I would say it’s about 90% smoke and 10% fire and they often don’t even understand the fire!

pixelburp

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Politicians here were jumping up and down at the story in Politico to be fair.

Is there no part of you that thinks there may be some truth to that story or are you just happy to dismiss it?

Like I say no smoke without fire. That statement is very intentionally worded as they all are after these meetings.

No there is no part of me because, as had been made clear by numerous posters, the results of forcibly removing a member state from the single market would effectively destroy the EU and render the SM useless. Your bias is clear; or at least passive hope, given a noted distrust of the EU.

Instead you insist based on flimsy "evidence". An oped with no named sources and a single press statement is not reality no matter how much you wish it to be true. There is no smoke. You see smoke, refusing to believe actual, named individuals in favour of staring very hard at a single line and insisting machinations. It's naive, believing a bad faith actor throughout the entire brexit process.

ClosedAccountFuzzy

If anyone thinks Ireland's going to undermine its domestic economy and FDI flows (including Brexit related ones) in the middle of a profound economic shock from a pandemic when it needs stability of trade to recover, you've also got to be kidding yourself.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Are you denying the statement that has just been issued? It says crystal clear there 'unencumbered trade between GB, NI and ROI'. Only one way for that to be the case.

You gotta read between the lines. That's not a mistake.

Again I suspect the Politico story was true.

Britain and the US have absolutely no say over how the Republic trades with the rest of the Single Market, so I suspect you're reading way too much into it. Ireland and the EU had no input whatsoever into that communique this afternoon.

ath262

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1403042246119804931

Interesting that the EU is not mentioned there in the free trade bit. Celtic sea border then?

Johnson has been saying this for months. Free trade east west north south...

read the full tweet - it's not an extract of the original statement

'Attached is the official UK readout Of what @BorisJohnsonPOTUS agreed on how to ease tensions with the EU on GB trade with Northern Ireland...'

Links to the actual Joint statement (UK Gov)
and copy on Whitehouse website - no mention of that unencumbered trade NI/GB/ROI phrase

moon2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Are you denying the statement that has just been issued? It says crystal clear there 'unencumbered trade between GB, NI and ROI'. Only one way for that to be the case.

You gotta read between the lines.

Yup - you gotta read between the lines. As Ireland is part of the EU the statement is essentially saying: It says crystal clear there 'unencumbered trade between GB, NI and the EU'.



Edit: the US minutes are, as usual, quite different to what the UK reported: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/10/joint-statement-on-the-visit-to-the-united-kingdom-of-the-honorable-joseph-r-biden-jr-president-of-the-united-states-of-america-at-the-invitation-of-the-rt-hon-boris-johnson-m-p-the-prime-min/

I wonder if the other poster has been too hyper focused on repeating Boris' lines rather than analyzing the actual facts of the matter.

ClosedAccountFuzzy

I'm going to read between the lines too then: "Brexit is over - UK to rejoin the Single Market."

It's about as logical a conclusion as the other readings of between the lines.

Source: Someone in Brussels (who may or may not be real.)

CelticRambler

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Those joint statements are very carefully considered and worded with a tooth comb after summit meetings. The fact it explicitly says unencumbered trade between Northern Ireland, GB and ROI (note: not the EU) leads me to believe the Celtic Sea border is on the table despite the panicked denials of the Politico story.

Dear, oh dear. You really, really, need to take off those red-white-and-blue tinted glasses. There is nothing, absolutely nothing, not a single carefully considered word in the joint statement about trade between NI and anywhere else in the world. Not one. None.

Yet again, you seem to be placing all your hopes for the destruction of the EU on the utterances of the British government, currently being led by a proven liar with a track record of failing to deliver on any of his promises.

fly_agaric

Fact there appears to be nothing in that statement about NI Protocol issue or UKs trade rows with the EU probably suggests UK/US are not exactly on the same page about it, or agreeing on what should happen next. So stay quiet.
That seems to fit better with angry screed from the Telegraph about Biden which was posted earlier today.

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Are you denying the statement that has just been issued? It says crystal clear there 'unencumbered trade between GB, NI and ROI'. Only one way for that to be the case.

You gotta read between the lines. That's not a mistake.

Again I suspect the Politico story was true.

Again, JOhnson previously said there would be no forms needed for NI GB trade. He said that without the aid of PR spin. WHy are you ignoring that lie but putting all faith into a PR spin?

The other way is that the UK will accept the EU rules. That would allow free trade. Leaving out EU allows BRexiteers to remain calm and people like you to exclaim a victory.

But isn't it possible that the UK could sign up to the EU rules? You are ruled it out but it is possible, and the most likely outcome

Podge_irl

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Those joint statements are very carefully considered and worded with a tooth comb after summit meetings. The fact it explicitly says unencumbered trade between Northern Ireland, GB and ROI (note: not the EU) leads me to believe the Celtic Sea border is on the table despite the panicked denials of the Politico story.

Interesting times ahead?

They weren't panicked denials. They were exasperated denials born of years of having to deal with this deluded nonsense coming out of Westminster.

No.10's view of whether there will be a customs border between Ireland and the rest of the EU is about as relevant as Uganda's view.

Kermit.de.frog

Leroy42 wrote: »

Again, JOhnson previously said there would be no forms needed for NI GB trade. He said that without the aid of PR spin. WHy are you ignoring that lie but putting all faith into a PR spin?

The other way is that the UK will accept the EU rules. That would allow free trade. Leaving out EU allows BRexiteers to remain calm and people like you to exclaim a victory.

But isn't it possible that the UK could sign up to the EU rules? You are ruled it out but it is possible, and the most likely outcome

You'd better hope they sign up to some alignment then.

Because if they don't we are about to see the cut of the EU's jib. Will the EU take retaliatory measures to protect a small member?

If they don't a border goes up and it's over anyway.

No point in us being in at that point because it has not protected us.

They weren't panicked denials.

Come off it, there was roars of indignation from politicians here within minutes.

Despite the denials I believe the Politico story to be accurate. I think that article will feature on reeling in the years in 20 years time.

timetogo1

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You'd better hope they sign up to some alignment then.

Because if they don't we are about to see the cut of the EU's jib. Will the EU take retaliatory measures to protect a small member?

If they don't a border goes up and it's over anyway.

No point in us being in at that point because it has not protected us.



Come off it, there was roars of indignation from politicians here within minutes.

Despite the denials I believe the Politico story to be accurate. I think that article will feature on reeling in the years in 20 years time.

Saying something is rubbish is not a panicked denial. When idiots day the world is flat and people refute that it's not a panicked denial.

You seem to want the Politico article to be true. I would guess the article will go the way of many articles that have been in the British media over the last year. Useful idiots take them as evidence that brexit is a success while the rest of the world moves on.

My guess is that the UK will back down before the end of the month. It's what they've done for all stages of brexit. Moan and whinge and say how powerful they are then back down and claim the EU blinked. The EU is happy enough to let them have their little wins but it must be tiresome for the negotiators. The Express / Mail will post their headlines and the brexiters will be happy.
The DUP won't be, but they never are.

But this is brexit and it won't be the last issue. So much for "getting brexit done"

Peregrinus

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Despite the denials I believe the Politico story to be accurate. I think that article will feature on reeling in the years in 20 years time.

You believe it to be accurate because you want it to be.

The story is attributed to a single unnamed EU official; numerous other journalists are reporting that they are receiving strong pushback from their sources in the EU who variously say that the story is "garbage", "completely nuts", "unadulterated bolllocks", etc, and who also explain why it doesn't pass the smell test; if the UK does refuse to operate the Protocol the EU has other, much less self-destructive options open to it, so why would they choose this one?

Will the EU take retaliatory measure to protect a smaller member? Of course it will; this is a no-brainer. Most of the member states are smaller members, and smaller members represent a majority of the voting power on the Council and in the Parliament. If smaller members think the Union won't stand behind them then the whole project is fûcked, basically. Why would the EU do that to itself?

Teresa May was of your way of thinking. See how that worked out for her.

For what it's worth, the word in the streets around the Berlaymont is that this article is an (ill-judged) attempt to warn the Irish government not to press too strongly for the EU to concede to the UK. The UK media present the Irish as the villains of the piece, and blame the Protocol on us. But, as people who are not congenital idiots can easily see, Ireland's interest lies in having minimal Irish sea controls and Ireland's is one of the voices that, in the counsels of the EU, is more prone to conciliate the UK. Most other member states have run out of patience with the UK and think the time has come to get tough, and I think this story may be someone's notion of a warning to the Irish not to stand in the way of a consensus on toughness.

Kermit.de.frog

You all want to believe Ireland will still be in the single market in 12 months time.

You all desperately want to believe that.

Despite your own denial of reality I have to say that is very unlikely.

The EU won't do what they should. That's unfortunate, it really is but no way will Ireland be in the single market this time next year.

That Politico article will be on reeling in the years in 20 years btw. Just saying.

This reminds me of the govt in 2009 - despite media forewarnings - "the IMF are not coming, don't be daft"

Peregrinus

We are suggesting that you are believing the Politico article - believing, in fact, a much stronger story than is offered in the Politico article - for no other reason than because you want to.

I note that you're not arguing with that.

And you're not offering any alternative reason for believing it.

Or engaging at all with, or even acknowledging, the arguments against it.

We'll draw the obvious conclusion.

The bottom line here is that the border is a bilateral concern, any solution to which requires the co-operation of the UK. The UK can, therefore, force a hard border if it wants to and is willing to pay the political, economic and reputational price involved.

But the UK, as a third country, is not involved in decisions about the Single Market and is not in a position to force any country out of the Single Market. Even if they were prepared to ruin themselves in order to bring this about, they could not do it.

The only person here who wants to believe something is you, Kermit. Your faux-concern over Covid-19 and Ireland's place in the EU is obvious to everyone. Why you want the world to collapse but pretend you don't, I don't know. I think it's all literotica to you.

dogbert27

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You all want to believe Ireland will still be in the single market in 12 months time.

You all desperately want to believe that.

Despite your own denial of reality I have to say that is very unlikely.

The EU won't do what they should. That's unfortunate, it really is but no way will Ireland be in the single market this time next year.

That Politico article will be on reeling in the years in 20 years btw. Just saying.

This reminds me of the govt in 2009 - despite media forewarnings - "the IMF are not coming, don't be daft"

The only desperation in here is in everything you post.

We don't want to desperately believe Ireland will be in the SM in 12 months time. We all already know it will be.

It took Brexit nearly 5 years to get done and you seriously believe Ireland will be out of the SM in 12 months time?! :rolleyes:

I think you should start taking these posts to the conspiracy theory forum as they have little credibility in actual discussion here seeing as you are ignoring all reasonable responses to you as you have done in the past so so so many times.

KildareP

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You all want to believe Ireland will still be in the single market in 12 months time.

You all desperately want to believe that.

Despite your own denial of reality I have to say that is very unlikely.

The EU won't do what they should. That's unfortunate, it really is but no way will Ireland be in the single market this time next year.

That Politico article will be on reeling in the years in 20 years btw. Just saying.

This reminds me of the govt in 2009 - despite media forewarnings - "the IMF are not coming, don't be daft"

The only desperation is from yourself in trying to paint the EU as a villain.

A villian for drafting the triggering Article 16 in a matter of hours, which was a "kneejerk reaction".
A villian for not instantly going to town on the UK over a mere threat.

Meanwhile the UK is the trustworthy source here to be taken at their word and to be the indicator of how Ireland is to function going forward - whether that be an unnamed source in a newspaper article or a press statement of their take of a meeting for which they didn't wish to hold a press conference for (why would they not want the press to be able to ask questions I wonder?)

As for the IMF, the villains were our own, not the EU. The FF party paid heavily for that crap for many years and frankly if they were to be seen willingly allowing the EU downgrade our membership to suit Britain, would be truly ironic given the Irish diplomatic and political handling of Brexit by FG to date and would most likely finish them off completely.

eire4

dogbert27 wrote: »

The only desperation in here is in everything you post.

We don't want to desperately believe Ireland will be in the SM in 12 months time. We all already know it will be.

It took Brexit nearly 5 years to get done and you seriously believe Ireland will be out of the SM in 12 months time?! :rolleyes:

I think you should start taking these posts to the conspiracy theory forum as they have little credibility in actual discussion here seeing as you are ignoring all reasonable responses to you as you have done in the past so so so many times.

There is more chance of me winning the lotto and being elected Taoiseach within the next 12 months then there is of Ireland not being in the EU in 12 months time. Utterly risible.

murphaph

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You all want to believe Ireland will still be in the single market in 12 months time.

You all desperately want to believe that.

Despite your own denial of reality I have to say that is very unlikely.

The EU won't do what they should. That's unfortunate, it really is but no way will Ireland be in the single market this time next year.

That Politico article will be on reeling in the years in 20 years btw. Just saying.

This reminds me of the govt in 2009 - despite media forewarnings - "the IMF are not coming, don't be daft"

I'll give you my house if Ireland is not a part of the single market in 12 months. The simple fact is that Ireland would start performing checks at the land border before we'd give up our place in the single market. But it won't come to that because the EU has a larger set of thumbscrews in Calais to persuade the UK to live up to things it has already agreed to and the other member states booting a member state out of the single market would be a self inflicted gunshot wound to the head of the EU.

You appear to desperately, desperately want the EU to fail, crash and burn.