Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

Strazdas wrote: »

The crazy thing is they will endure all this hardship to secure an intangible form of sovereignty with no positive pay off. The net win will be the Daily Mail informing them they are now sovereign.....it seems a lousy trade off and not even remotely worth the effort.

I don't think they'll endure anything. They'll be screaming the second their lives get one iota more inconvenient than they currently are and the Tories have lost the scapegoat they were using so successfully for decades.

ClosedAccountFuzzy

I’m not sure they have lost it. They’ll just blame EU intransigence. That’s already the narrative.

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think they'll endure anything. They'll be screaming the second their lives get one iota more inconvenient than they currently are and the Tories have lost the scapegoat they were using so successfully for decades.

There will be no sympathy for them anyway. A bunch of moaning minnies and only happy when they are complaining.....Brexitism seems to be all about a sense of grievance and having a chip on their shoulder.

Quin_Dub

FuzzyThinking wrote: »

I’m not sure they have lost it. They’ll just blame EU intransigence. That’s already the narrative.

The difference now though is that no one outside of the UK will care one jot.

How exactly will they "fix" the issues that people will be complaining about?

While they were in the EU they could parlay that local ire into changes in various committees at EU level that they and their MEP's were part of.

Now though , they'll be getting it in the neck from their voters and they'll blame it all on the EU being big meanies.. But the people will still expect them to "Do something about it".

Away from the Daily Mail headlines how are they going to fix the problems Brexit is causing??

If they go the tariff/ trade restrictions route that's a battle they simply cannot win and they just don't have any External heavy hitters on their side (at least for the next few years with the US) around a WTO negotiating table.

Hubris will only sort of protect them for so long.

Strazdas

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The difference now though is that no one outside of the UK will care one jot.

How exactly will they "fix" the issues that people will be complaining about?

While they were in the EU they could parlay that local ire into changes in various committees at EU level that they and their MEP's were part of.

Now though , they'll be getting it in the neck from their voters and they'll blame it all on the EU being big meanies.. But the people will still expect them to "Do something about it".

Away from the Daily Mail headlines how are they going to fix the problems Brexit is causing??

If they go the tariff/ trade restrictions route that's a battle they simply cannot win and they just don't have any External heavy hitters on their side (at least for the next few years with the US) around a WTO negotiating table.

Hubris will only sort of protect them for so long.

Indeed, how are they going to explain things going wrong for the next five to ten years? Saying "It's all the EU's fault" will only get them so far : they're the ones who have made a song and dance about shredding the relationship with Europe and claiming the vaccine success was down to being now out of the EU.

Leroy42

I think you are underestimating their ability (the government and the media) so offset the blame.

Have a read of any Express article comments, the contraditions in them are hilarious if it wasn't actually serious. The EU are both useless, money wating con men without a single iota of intelligence, whilst at the same time Boris was hoodwinked bya cabal if evil EU villians who had been plotting Brexit from the start and Johnson was powerless to stop it.

Also, TM is a complete an utter traitor by even thinking about keeping the UK within one trade zone, while Johnson is absolutely right that NI must be sacrified for Brexit and that it is a total outrage that the EU can't see that NI should not be treated differently.

THis level of ignorance is very hard to break down and I don't see anything in the nexyt couple of years that will break it.

patobrien12

As a business owner, the customs charges are a nightmare. We are constantly getting 1-star reviews due to late deliveries which is a killer for an online business

redt0m

ambro25 wrote: »

There are mounting reports today, that the Brexit-caused haulage driver shortage crisis, long-announced by supply chain specialists, is happening and now at the stage of beginning to bite fresh produce retailers and supermarket shelves:

https://twitter.com/NationwidePlc/status/1402220278764212225?s=20

A situation witnessed by none other than Gisela Stuart, in a spectacularly-ironical Tweet today:

https://twitter.com/GiselaStuart/status/1404058126760955904?s=20

God, if they don't watch out the UK might end up having its own Famine.

Enzokk

FuzzyThinking wrote: »

If Labour had any sense they would draw him out and make him angry. He’s a very different character and much less likeable when he’s been really aggressive in Parliament. There were a few occasions the mask slipped but Starmer is too polite to keep pressing that button.

They should be mocking, poking, annoying and causing as many tantrums as they can cause, but they won’t because they’re not really capable fighting fire with petrol, which is what is needed.

The problem in the UK at the moment is that the right wing press has almost nothing opposing them in setting the narrative. Only when they decide Johnson is done and start reporting as such will it make a difference. Now newspapers are dying a slow death so it may be that they just disappear, but you have GB News who will take up the mantle and space that The Express, Daily Mail and The Sun will leave if they fail.

So what I am saying, it really doesn't matter what Labour does unless it can get the rags on their side. And they won't get them onside because it will mean courting the racists.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think you are underestimating their ability (the government and the media) so offset the blame.

Have a read of any Express article comments, the contraditions in them are hilarious if it wasn't actually serious. The EU are both useless, money wating con men without a single iota of intelligence, whilst at the same time Boris was hoodwinked bya cabal if evil EU villians who had been plotting Brexit from the start and Johnson was powerless to stop it.

Also, TM is a complete an utter traitor by even thinking about keeping the UK within one trade zone, while Johnson is absolutely right that NI must be sacrified for Brexit and that it is a total outrage that the EU can't see that NI should not be treated differently.

THis level of ignorance is very hard to break down and I don't see anything in the nexyt couple of years that will break it.

You think that a party which has failed to win over half of the popular vote for decades now has some sort of power to dazzle the British public because of some comments on the Express' website? That's an appalling basis for any sort of argument IMO.

Leroy42

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

You think that a party which has failed to win over half of the popular vote for decades now has some sort of power to dazzle the British public because of some comments on the Express' website? That's an appalling basis for any sort of argument IMO.

No, you have it the wrong way around. The comments are not becuase of the government, the comments are because that is what people really think. That they have been conditioned to think that by the media and government is not the issue.

It is how do you go about solving an issue like Brexit when many of the populace are so bought into the narrative. It is much easier to create more issues, like its ll the EU fault, Biden is terrible etc etc, than it is to reverse the conditioning that has gone on for years.

Take Cummins recently. He was quickly ignored because he is a known liar. Which is perfectly understandable, except that for that to make sense then one has to completely forget that Johnson, Hancock etc are known to be liars as well. So people simply forgot about that to make the narrative work.

And you make it sound like only half the popular vote is somehow a failure. Due to the voting system, over half is way more than they need.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

No, you have it the wrong way around. The comments are not becuase of the government, the comments are because that is what people really think. That they have been conditioned to think that by the media and government is not the issue.

It is how do you go about solving an issue like Brexit when many of the populace are so bought into the narrative. It is much easier to create more issues, like its ll the EU fault, Biden is terrible etc etc, than it is to reverse the conditioning that has gone on for years.

Take Cummins recently. He was quickly ignored because he is a known liar. Which is perfectly understandable, except that for that to make sense then one has to completely forget that Johnson, Hancock etc are known to be liars as well. So people simply forgot about that to make the narrative work.

And you make it sound like only half the popular vote is somehow a failure. Due to the voting system, over half is way more than they need.

Effectively, what you've done is form an opinion of the people of this country and then find something to suit your confirmation bias. This doesn't mean the populace has bought into the narrative. Feel free to provide some data if I'm wrong there.

Comments sections of newspapers are no better than random tweets IMO.

RobMc59

54and56 wrote: »

This "UK is one country" line the BoJo govt has decided to parrot is a great opportunity for sporting organisations to hit the reset button and stop positively discriminating towards the UK by recognising England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland as 4 distinct "countries" and instead grant the UK the status of one country just as all other European countries with multiple "Nations" or regions are only recognised for the title of their unified government.

Imagine FIFA trying to explain why NI with a population of 2m is one of 4 UK "countries" but California with a population of 40m is bundled together with 50 other states (virtually all of whom have a larger population than NI) to form just one country because.......

As a British person born in England I view Scottish people the same as me,British. But come Friday night(England v Scotland in the Euros),they will be the `old enemy`.:)

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think you are underestimating their ability (the government and the media) so offset the blame.

Have a read of any Express article comments, the contraditions in them are hilarious if it wasn't actually serious. The EU are both useless, money wating con men without a single iota of intelligence, whilst at the same time Boris was hoodwinked bya cabal if evil EU villians who had been plotting Brexit from the start and Johnson was powerless to stop it.

Also, TM is a complete an utter traitor by even thinking about keeping the UK within one trade zone, while Johnson is absolutely right that NI must be sacrified for Brexit and that it is a total outrage that the EU can't see that NI should not be treated differently.

THis level of ignorance is very hard to break down and I don't see anything in the nexyt couple of years that will break it.

But can they keep this nonsense up (convincingly) for much longer? Tories and their press pals made a huge deal of the vaccines success and it solely down to being out of the EU - with a clear implication they were now free of the "shackles" of the union.

How can they claim for the next few years that all problems in the country are caused by the EU? Great store was placed in the idea that once free of the EU, they could do whatever they liked and would become prosperous (and that the EU might even collapse during the same period). It was never once sold to the public as the UK struggling and having problems once out of the union.

Quin_Dub

Strazdas wrote: »

But can they keep this nonsense up (convincingly) for much longer? Tories and their press pals made a huge deal of the vaccines success and it solely down to being out of the EU - with a clear implication they were now free of the "shackles" of the union.

How can they claim for the next few years that all problems in the country are caused by the EU? Great store was placed in the idea that once free of the EU, they could do whatever they liked and would become prosperous (and that the EU might even collapse during the same period). It was never once sold to the public as the UK struggling and having problems once out of the union.

A lot will come down to the public pain threshold for all of this.

Without question there is a core of Brexit supporters that are willing to accept short/medium term pain in pursuit of the oft touted "sunny uplands" etc.

It really doesn't matter who they are told is at fault , they'll still be feeling the pain and be pushing the Government to solve it.

How much pain they are willing to endure and for exactly how long will be the key question.

Of course there will be every variation of endurance mixed in , those that are already maxed out and those that will be willing to suffer endless pain in the pursuit of "Sovereignty" but there will eventually be a tipping point.

And there really isn't a scenario where the UK get their (current) way on this long term.

ancapailldorcha

Quin_Dub wrote: »

A lot will come down to the public pain threshold for all of this.

Without question there is a core of Brexit supporters that are willing to accept short/medium term pain in pursuit of the oft touted "sunny uplands" etc.

It really doesn't matter who they are told is at fault , they'll still be feeling the pain and be pushing the Government to solve it.

How much pain they are willing to endure and for exactly how long will be the key question.

Of course there will be every variation of endurance mixed in , those that are already maxed out and those that will be willing to suffer endless pain in the pursuit of "Sovereignty" but there will eventually be a tipping point.

And there really isn't a scenario where the UK get their (current) way on this long term.

In my experience, the people who posture most about being willing to endure are those who are unlikely to experience any significant negative effects from Brexit at all. There's a cohort here of Tory-voting middle-class people with their buy-to-let properties, place in the sun, private pension, etc who are more than happy to watch the rest of the country burn because they hate the EU.

Quin_Dub

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

In my experience, the people who posture most about being willing to endure are those who are unlikely to experience any significant negative effects from Brexit at all. There's a cohort here of Tory-voting middle-class people with their buy-to-let properties, place in the sun, private pension, etc who are more than happy to watch the rest of the country burn because they hate the EU.

Absolutely - In my mind I picture the WW1 Officer class sipping tea in Headquarters miles behind the front talking about "Sacrifice" & "For King And Country!" while the working class lads are getting slaughtered by the thousand in the Trenches..

Irish Praetorian

patobrien12 wrote: »

As a business owner, the customs charges are a nightmare. We are constantly getting 1-star reviews due to late deliveries which is a killer for an online business

For my own edification - is it the actual level of customs that is killing you, or the paperwork for simply the delay involved that's doing the damage ?

dogbert27

Rishi has said that the furlough scheme is finished on July 01st and will not be extended. With this it will be interesting to see how businesses will now be affected on top of the grace period ending on June 30th.

It will be an interesting second half of the year for the UK economy!

fly_agaric

Strazdas wrote: »

But can they keep this nonsense up (convincingly) for much longer? Tories and their press pals made a huge deal of the vaccines success and it solely down to being out of the EU - with a clear implication they were now free of the "shackles" of the union.

How can they claim for the next few years that all problems in the country are caused by the EU? Great store was placed in the idea that once free of the EU, they could do whatever they liked and would become prosperous (and that the EU might even collapse during the same period). It was never once sold to the public as the UK struggling and having problems once out of the union.

I think they can keep it up for a while.
I have to give it to current crowd of Conservatives running the UK that they are masters of spin and pr and getting journalists eating right out of their hands etc. They seem to have played public opinion in the UK like a fiddle for years.
I think it goes further than the right wing friendly press in the UK and is a dubious "benefit" of having a bunch of journalists/part time opinion writers and people who are pals with journalists in government.
They do it effectively with our own media as well as their (skewed) framing on this is everywhere. I keep seeing this disagreement being boiled down to "sausages"[i.e. this is a joke, the EU is petty] + as mentioned in a post above, how there needs to be more "negotiations" and horse trading of some sort [i.e. EU is deaf and not listening to the sensible/pragmatic people in UK govt. to work this out])

Strazdas

fly_agaric wrote: »

I think they can keep it up for a while.
I have to give it to current crowd of Conservatives running the UK that they are masters of spin and pr and getting journalists eating right out of their hands etc. They seem to have played public opinion in the UK like a fiddle for years.
I think it goes further than the right wing friendly press in the UK and is a dubious "benefit" of having a bunch of journalists/part time opinion writers and people who are pals with journalists in government.
They do it effectively with our own media as well as their (skewed) framing on this is everywhere. I keep seeing this disagreement being boiled down to "sausages"[i.e. this is a joke, the EU is petty] + as mentioned in a post above, how there needs to be more "negotiations" and horse trading of some sort [i.e. EU is deaf and not listening to the sensible/pragmatic people in UK govt. to work this out])

I have no doubt they and their numerous press pals will continue to spin and spin against the EU and accuse them of all sorts of skulduggery. But one wonders how long they can keep this up : they have made a huge song and dance about being now "free" and "sovereign" and "independent". A country like that should surely be immune from outside influences. To claim that the they are struggling 'because of the EU' would presumably be an admission they are not free of the EU at all.

paul71

Lemming wrote: »

NHS Scotland is a separate, autonomous entity to NHS England & Wales

Thats is interesting and I never knew it. Is Northern Ireland separate too?

L1011

paul71 wrote: »

Thats is interesting and I never knew it. Is Northern Ireland separate too?

Yes, the NHS doesn't exist there although its extremely common to call the equivalent - HSCNI - "the NHS" regardless.

RobMc59

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Absolutely - In my mind I picture the WW1 Officer class sipping tea in Headquarters miles behind the front talking about "Sacrifice" & "For King And Country!" while the working class lads are getting slaughtered by the thousand in the Trenches..

Bizarrely,the working class seem to support brexit.The general feeling I've encountered is 'we're better off on our own'.Johnson is a habitual lier but is rarely criticised and is generally liked.(Which is also astonishing imo).

fly_agaric

Strazdas wrote: »

I have no doubt they and their numerous press pals will continue to spin and spin against the EU and accuse them of all sorts of skulduggery. But one wonders how long they can keep this up : they have made a huge song and dance about being now "free" and "sovereign" and "independent". A country like that should surely be immune from outside influences. To claim that the they are struggling 'because of the EU' would presumably be an admission they are not free of the EU at all.

I don't know (if people in the UK will continue to buy it longer term).
If the government don't reverse course, I can't see how the EU will avoid taking harsh measures against the UK like tariffs and whatever other penalties there are available under their agreements with the UK.
IMO the EU can't really let this go for its own cohesion and credibility.
EU/other members also can't go to Ireland's door to plug the NI holes in the single market or customs union without making strong efforts to get UK to abide by the agreements it made first.
The UK is going to be hurt by the EU response, and the government will blame the EU and Ireland for it all, just as they would have for damage of a "no deal" Brexit outcome.

Strazdas

fly_agaric wrote: »

I don't know (if people in the UK will continue to buy it longer term).
If the government don't reverse course, I can't see how the EU will avoid taking harsh measures against the UK like tariffs and whatever other penalties there are available under their agreements with the UK.
IMO the EU can't really let this go for its own cohesion and credibility.
EU/other members also can't go to Ireland's door to plug the NI holes in the single market or customs union without making strong efforts to get UK to abide by the agreements it made first.
The UK is going to be hurt by the EU response, and the government will blame the EU and Ireland for it all, just as they would have for damage of a "no deal" Brexit outcome.

The British position is full of contradictions. They claimed they didn't even need the EU and the Brexit press said that No Deal was by far the most preferable outcome (as the UK didn't need a trade deal). So how they can spin future problems for Britain as being 'caused' by the EU is going to be mighty tricky for them.

CelticRambler

Hey Rob, nice to see you back!

RobMc59 wrote: »

Bizarrely, the working class seem to support brexit.The general feeling I've encountered is 'we're better off on our own'.

This is the time bomb already ticking under Johnson. "We're better off on our own" will only work in his favour as long as the UK is better off, or has the appearance of having the potential to be better off. If Johnson (and the tabloids) keeps pushing the line "the EU made us sign it" or "the EU are stopping us from ... [whatever]" at least some of the working class are going start thinking for themselves, and wondering what advantage there was in going it alone when - according to their hero - the EU's still calling the shots, year after year.

Padre_Pio

CelticRambler wrote: »

Hey Rob, nice to see you back!

This is the time bomb already ticking under Johnson. "We're better off on our own" will only work in his favour as long as the UK is better off, or has the appearance of having the potential to be better off.

Vaccination roll out was the big Brexit win this year (even though it has nothing to do with brexit)

The EU was slow out of the gate, but there's little difference now between the UK and most EU countries. Once the vulnerable are vaccinated, the rest are just a nice to have and everything seems to be opening up at the same pace.

UK delaying the opening the economy for another month dampens the claim that the UK is faster and more dynamic.

20silkcut

fly_agaric wrote: »

I don't know (if people in the UK will continue to buy it longer term).
If the government don't reverse course, I can't see how the EU will avoid taking harsh measures against the UK like tariffs and whatever other penalties there are available under their agreements with the UK.
IMO the EU can't really let this go for its own cohesion and credibility.
EU/other members also can't go to Ireland's door to plug the NI holes in the single market or customs union without making strong efforts to get UK to abide by the agreements it made first.
The UK is going to be hurt by the EU response, and the government will blame the EU and Ireland for it all, just as they would have for damage of a "no deal" Brexit outcome.

That’s the trouble the EU is in a bind over taking harsh measures against the U.K.
Ireland certainly doesn’t want to. And Ireland, as we like to say here, is the EU. Countries like the Netherlands etc are of the same mind.
The trouble is the remainers/ rejoiners anti brexit lobby in the U.K. are waiting hamstrung to see what the EU do.
They can’t lay a glove on Johnson while there is still a chance that the EU gives Johnson facile concessions that he can spin as victory. And that has been almost de facto EU policy up to now.
The EU are probably hoping that the drip feed of negative consequences would start changing hearts and minds in the U.K. at this stage but it hasn’t happened or is happening at a glacial pace.
The pressure to speed up the negative consequences on the U.K. is building.
But there are many lessons in history of what happens when a nation is harshly punished by other groups of nations. It rarely or almost never has the desired effect.

Strazdas

RobMc59 wrote: »

Bizarrely,the working class seem to support brexit.The general feeling I've encountered is 'we're better off on our own'.Johnson is a habitual lier but is rarely criticised and is generally liked.(Which is also astonishing imo).

This one is easily explained I reckon : they believe Johnson is a fellow xenophobe (cough, racist) and English patriot. Unfortunately, a lot of Red Wall Tories are probably not very nice people (you couldn't be a nice and tolerant person and yet be strongly drawn to the politics of Johnson, Priti Patel etc).