Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Capt'n Midnight

CelticRambler wrote: »

You know, JRM may well have spoken the truth: it probably will take 50 years for Britain England to recoup the cost of Brexit.

I disagree.

It's like how you taking a pay cut today will affect your grandchildren.
Unless you are rich you won't be leaving them much either way.

Padre_Pio

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

I disagree.

It's like how you taking a pay cut today will affect your grandchildren.
Unless you are rich you won't be leaving them much either way.

I disagree.
The economic ripples from Brexit will still be felt for the next 30 years.

We're still living with the effects of the 2008 recession to some extent. Some rural areas have never recovered from factories closing nearly 15 years ago.

redcup342

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

I disagree.

It's like how you taking a pay cut today will affect your grandchildren.
Unless you are rich you won't be leaving them much either way.

Think of it more like your grandkids will be living in the same house you are in now rather than leaving them "money"

CelticRambler

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

It's like how you taking a pay cut today will affect your grandchildren.
Unless you are rich you won't be leaving them much either way.

Not sure I quite understand the analogy ......

Padre_Pio wrote: »

The economic ripples from Brexit will still be felt for the next 30 years.

We're still living with the effects of the 2008 recession to some extent. Some rural areas have never recovered from factories closing nearly 15 years ago.

This is a problem that affects the whole of human society, and has done for centuries. "Stuff" happens, paradigms shift, and whole communities are plunged into a new, usually very uncomfortable, reality.

So in and of itself, the Brexit rock crashing into a pond and the ripples caused by that are not particularly exceptional. The inherent flaw, and potentially serious damage, is the belief that everything from the past that was "lost" can be recovered, or even that it should be recovered, and former glory restored.

American coalmines, British steelworks, French car makers ... these are all obsolete industries, and pulling up drawbridges in the name of nationalist pride aren't going to make them any more relevant.

View

Podge_irl wrote: »

This is where I think you are massively misjudging things. The rest of the EU very much do care. The UK was banking on them not caring and has woefully misjudged this.

Ireland will commit to installing infrastructure on the border if needs be, but everyone will understand that it will take a lot of time - the channel crossings will basically shut overnight.

Exporters in other EU countries do NOT care about the NI protocol. Most of them have probably never even heard about it. Even those that have almost certainly couldn’t care less about the contents of the protocol or whether the border checks apply on land or at sea.

IF they see us refusing to implement EU sanctions on ALL our borders, those exporters will scream like hell at their politicians should they end up on the receiving end of U.K. counter-sanctions. Why should they suffer for us when we aren’t willing to endure pain for something that we are championing?

yagan

Padre_Pio wrote: »

I disagree.
The economic ripples from Brexit will still be felt for the next 30 years.

We're still living with the effects of the 2008 recession to some extent. Some rural areas have never recovered from factories closing nearly 15 years ago.

I've always had this niggling feeling that Brexit somehow chimes with the disintegration of the USSR in more ways than is obvious.

In ways I feel Russia and Britain probable chime more in that they were hosts of past global empires and rattling eachothers cages occasionally is more a muscle memory exercise than anything else.

If we see serious supply issues in GB supermarkets it would again chime with scenes from 1980s USSR.

Sam Russell

So it looks like the French/German power over the small member states is not so powerful after all.

EU leaders take hard line on Russia, rebuking Merkel and Macron

EU leaders early Friday adopted a hardline stance toward Russia — but only after Poland and the Baltic countries took their own hardline stance toward Germany and France and torpedoed a proposal by the bloc’s biggest powers to seek a summit with President Vladimir Putin.

The 27 heads of state and government adopted their tough conclusions on Russia at around 2 a.m. following a protracted and, at times, heated debate. The final result was remarkably humbling, if not utterly humiliating, for German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, who normally exert the greatest sway in discussions around the European Council table.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-unity-on-russia-collapses-after-german-french-proposal-for-outreach-to-vladimir-putin/

I think the attempt to move closer to Russia is not appreciated by the eastern former Soviet members. I suppose they have a memory of what Russian dominance might lead to.

Retr0gamer

More Brexit dividends paying off

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jun/25/uk-facing-summer-of-food-shortages-due-to-lack-of-lorry-drivers

lawred2

Retr0gamer wrote: »

More Brexit dividends paying off

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jun/25/uk-facing-summer-of-food-shortages-due-to-lack-of-lorry-drivers

ames Mee, a blueberry farmer from Peterborough, said the shortages of food with short shelf life could also hit Wimbledon, synonymous with the British strawberry.

Things are getting serious

redcup342

Retr0gamer wrote: »

More Brexit dividends paying off

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jun/25/uk-facing-summer-of-food-shortages-due-to-lack-of-lorry-drivers

Earlier in the year Freight companies were bringing goods into the UK but going back empty as they didn't want the risk that they get stopped at the border and held up due to customs checks. Freight companies here in Germany have a whole department dedicated to the UK.

The "shortage" comes from Freight companies based in the UK which have increased demand due to their Continental European counterparts just not taking the business or its just not economically viable for the UK Company wishing to ship goods to use a Continental European Company for shipping.

I.E. The UK Freight companies now have more business but don't have enough drivers to take up the business, if they did theoritcally have enough drivers then they would be in an advantageous position as they could go out the ferry port, if theres a problem with the documentation then just drive back to the depot and take a different shipment same day and go out again.

On the way back into the UK they have no problems as the UK aren't checking anything at the moment (as they don't have the capactiy to do so)

At the moment if a German logisitics company is getting stuck in the UK they are stuck there for a few days (away from home) and have no depot to go to, that truck is out of action for that period of time (2-3 days)

The UK Logisitics companies saw this is a massive business opportunity, The Stobart group saw a big increase in business but they failed to see the problem of not having the workforce to take up that business.

https://www.ft.com/content/16dbb10a-767c-4901-bd2e-32f0c8935169

Now they're doing that same as that ar%ewipe from Wetherspoons asking them to take back control of the borders but at the same time be flexible on foreign migrant workers.

Them saying there will be food shortages etc is b*llocks, companies in the UK can pay for Hauliage just fine, just the UK Suppliers want all of the business and need eastern European Drivers to do it (undercut them)

It's about money and making more of it plain and simple.

RobMc59

FuzzyThinking wrote: »

Also their language is the most studied on the world largely because of the USA, not Britain. If you’re teaching EFL in Korea for example, your quite literally paid less if you’re not American and you don’t teach U.K. grammar or spelling.

A friend of mine from London had that experience and was completely shocked that she, as a speaker of standard BBC-like English, yet got nearly 50% less than someone with a strong Boston accent.

It came down to one thing: they wanted to learn American English, not British English.

British influence on the world stage has waned in the last century,whilst the US grew into the most powerful nation in the world. Although I do find the use of American spellings on boards by Irish posters slightly disconcerting.

Sam Russell

RobMc59 wrote: »

British influence on the world stage has waned in the last century,whilst the US grew into the most powerful nation in the world. Although I do find the use of American spellings on boards by Irish posters slightly disconcerting.

I think that is because the software they use defaults to American spelling because it is written by Americans.

Mom = American English; Mum = UK English; Mam = Irish English.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

British influence on the world stage has waned in the last century,whilst the US grew into the most powerful nation in the world. Although I do find the use of American spellings on boards by Irish posters slightly disconcerting.

Why would it 'disconcert' you?
Touch of the Unionist fear of language there.

RobMc59

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Why would it 'disconcert' you?
Touch of the Unionist fear of language there.

Why would I fear the use of American English?I thought it disconcerting, nothing more than that Francie.

View

Sam Russell wrote: »

So it looks like the French/German power over the small member states is not so powerful after all.



https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-unity-on-russia-collapses-after-german-french-proposal-for-outreach-to-vladimir-putin/

I think the attempt to move closer to Russia is not appreciated by the eastern former Soviet members. I suppose they have a memory of what Russian dominance might lead to.

None other than Brexiters/Europhibes ever suggested they had such power. The joint proposal was for a unified voice when dealing with Russia. The rejection of that just means individual states will deal with them on a bilateral basis.

Strazdas

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

You couldn’t make some of this stuff up



https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/westminster-news/iain-duncan-smith-brexit-taskforce-8062334

There is another quote in there regarding NI protocol, they view it as something that can restrict them from deregulating

So we are back to wanting cake (tarrif trade with Eu) but not wanting any responsibilities because Uk is special or something, which goes to core of whole Brexit thing

The move towards decimalisation had absolutely nothing to do with the EU. The UK switched to decimal currency for example two years before it joined the EEC....the old system was seen as being a bit confusing and cumbersome (and especially as most global currencies were using a decimal format).

Sam Russell

View wrote: »

None other than Brexiters/Europhibes ever suggested they had such power. The joint proposal was for a unified voice when dealing with Russia. The rejection of that just means individual states will deal with them on a bilateral basis.

I think it was a bit more than that - bringing Russia in from the cold. Crimea and Ukraine are still an issue as id the Belarus air piracy which got Russian support.

Russia is a big threat to the EU.

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think it was a bit more than that - bringing Russia in from the cold. Crimea and Ukraine are still an issue as id the Belarus air piracy which got Russian support.

Russia is a big threat to the EU.

It really isn't. It's more of a moderate nuisance. Their expertise in cyber warfare is really all they have. It's a mostly poor country with an economy the size of Spain's despite having over treble the population and abundant natural resources.

They're persisting with the troll farms and cyber attacks because it's all they have. It's a second world country that's becomes a little bit harder to differentiate from a fascist dictatorship with each passing day.

View

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

The problem is imports into EU from UK (and via UK for that matter)

Not exports from EU

You got things backwards imho

No the scenario I outlined is that the Brexiters are counting on us effectively vetoing sanctions against them for breaching the NI protocol, because the alternative is:

The EU countries draw up sanctions for breaching the protocol, and then you have two scenarios either:
A) all EU countries - including us - apply physical checks to enforce those sanctions on ALL borders (ie including the NI one). In that case, faced with the EU acting as one AND us taking action too, the Brexiters might back down since there is no point in escalating further.
Alternatively, we have:
all EU countries - excluding us - apply physical checks to enforce those sanctions on their borders, but we do not (ie we don’t do so on the NI one). In that case, faced with the EU acting at cross purposes AND us refusing to take action, the Brexiters have every incentive to escalate further, since once they apply counter-sanctions, the exporters in other EU countries would suffer and they would not be happy if they see us refusing to implement sanctions and not suffering as a result.

And, these are not hypothetical scenarios - we are almost six months into the period in which the protocol should have been implemented in full and the reality is that it is not being implemented at all. The Brexiters are openly flouting the protocol and we are unable and unwilling to actually get tough over it.

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It really isn't. It's more of a moderate nuisance. Their expertise in cyber warfare is really all they have. It's a mostly poor country with an economy the size of Spain's despite having over treble the population and abundant natural resources.

They're persisting with the troll farms and cyber attacks because it's all they have. It's a second world country that's becomes a little bit harder to differentiate from a fascist dictatorship with each passing day.

It is by definition a second world country.

First world - allied to the USA.
Second World - allied to the USSR (now Russia)
Third world - non aligned - that includes us, and most of Africa, plus many more.

Such definition are not used anymore. Developed, developing are the usual ones now, but of course such terms are always changing.

Strazdas

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Of course it has nothing to do with Eu, until those good enter Eu

They want to be able to use imperial units and not have to provide metric units alongside it as per their own 1985 act which is being used as an example of Eu hitting them with metric sticks

It seems to be mostly symbolic, jingoistic nonsense designed to appeal to the Brexit OAPs. These guys are quite reactionary....they hate anything modern and only ever want to go back to the 'good (i.e. bad) old days'.

View

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think it was a bit more than that - bringing Russia in from the cold. Crimea and Ukraine are still an issue as id the Belarus air piracy which got Russian support.

Russia is a big threat to the EU.

Again, in the absence of an agreed joint position, the individual states will act bilaterally. Individual countries will pursue “bringing them in from the cold” as they will try both a “carrot and stick” approach, rather than the “stick only” one favoured by some member states.

Sam Russell

RobMc59 wrote: »

As far as I'm aware Sam, the only people who generally still use the occasional imperial weight or measurement are older people. If you mentioned weight in stones a younger person wouldn't have a clue what you were talking about.

It's a pretty poor show when posters quote/believe drivel like this from the express.

Not entirely true.

Milk is imperial. Drink in pubs is in pints or half pints. Even young people talk about pints. Weight is generally in stones and pounds, even with the young - particularly if they are trying to lose the Covid stone they put on. In USA they only have pounds (and plenty of them).

In news broadcasts they quote heights in Double decker buses, areas in football pitches, volume in swimming pools (usually Olympic ones) and other bizarre units. No wonder the British public is confused with metric measures. Generally they find it impossible to convert from one system to the other.

We also suffer from some of this.

BonnieSituation

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

You couldn’t make some of this stuff up



https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/westminster-news/iain-duncan-smith-brexit-taskforce-8062334

There is another quote in there regarding NI protocol, they view it as something that can restrict them from deregulating

So we are back to wanting cake (tarrif trade with Eu) but not wanting any responsibilities because Uk is special or something, which goes to core of whole Brexit thing

You actually could make it up, but you'd be run out of town with it being too far fetched.

fly_agaric

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

You couldn’t make some of this stuff up



https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/westminster-news/iain-duncan-smith-brexit-taskforce-8062334

There is another quote in there regarding NI protocol, they view it as something that can restrict them from deregulating

So we are back to wanting cake (tarrif trade with Eu) but not wanting any responsibilities because Uk is special or something, which goes to core of whole Brexit thing

That is fairly funny.

The report claims the 1985 Weights and Measures Act - which makes it an offence for traders to use imperial without metric - has “long been identified as an example of overly prescriptive EU regulation”. They say the legislation should be amended to scrap such a requirement.

Opening the document, the MPs wrote: “We appreciate that the Northern Ireland Protocol limits the scope for application of these reforms in that part of our country. We hope that future reform of the Protocol may allow greater scope for regulatory reform in Northern Ireland so that its economy can benefit from the proposals we set out.

Somehow think that ability to export to the Ireland and the EU as if Brexit hadn't happened may be of more long term benefit to NI than allowing businesses there to stop using modern/scientific units if they wish!

lawred2

fly_agaric wrote: »

That is fairly funny.





Somehow think that ability to export to the Ireland and the EU as if Brexit hadn't happened may be of more long term benefit to NI than allowing businesses there to stop using modern/scientific units if they wish!

The report claims the 1985 Weights and Measures Act - which makes it an offence for traders to use imperial without metric - has “long been identified as an example of overly prescriptive EU regulation”. They say the legislation should be amended to scrap such a requirement.

Should it really be an offence?

But was that not a law that they themselves created?

fly_agaric

lawred2 wrote: »

Should it really be an offence?

But was that not a law that they themselves created?

I'm not old enough to know the history of it (bringing in use of metric measures) and don't know the details here or in the UK I'm afraid without googling etc.
As a "consumer" I can only ever remember the metric units being on products. Imperial would be beside it, but I think that is dying off (or dead??) as far as I can see - e.g. the changes to car speedometers/road signage here (in Ireland) is one I am young enough to remember.

That's just it though, it is barmy stuff to highlight that as an instance of red tape impeding business in the context of Brexit. If that's the sort of Brexit Benefit NI will miss out on thanks to the hated NI Protocol...would expect businesses there won't be crying too much.

edit: the report it is referring to seems to be here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/taskforce-on-innovation-growth-and-regulatory-reform-independent-report

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Some off topic posts have been removed.

RobMc59

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It really isn't. It's more of a moderate nuisance. Their expertise in cyber warfare is really all they have. It's a mostly poor country with an economy the size of Spain's despite having over treble the population and abundant natural resources.

They're persisting with the troll farms and cyber attacks because it's all they have. It's a second world country that's becomes a little bit harder to differentiate from a fascist dictatorship with each passing day.

Putin is using Russia`s expertise to create mayhem in the west.He`s a very dangerous character with connections to the notorious east german stasi.
His remit appears to be wage war on the west and create instability,as you say via troll farms and a well organised propaganda machine.

FrancieBrady

More of the silent disease (cancer) of Brexit for the UK. Vibrancy and innovation all cut off. Really is tragic and you have to ask; for what?

https://twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1408089544931659779