Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

moon2

RobMc59 wrote: »

I sometimes wonder what is most important to the EU,the protocol or the GFA.If the protocol goes badly would th EU want to construct a border wall saying the UK made us do it,risking the wrath of the superpower that is the US?
That could be how Johnson and co want it to play out.

The wrath of the superpower that is the US is focused on the UK for attempting to create the conditions where a border within the island of Ireland is necessary.

Were such a border to be required, I suspect the wrath won't change focus

ArmaniJeanss

joeysoap wrote: »

Wales will play Denmark today in the Netherlands. on a pitch marked out in metres . The world has moved from Imperial measurements, no problem.

On the other hand, when Gareth Bale puts the ball on the penalty spot to blaze one wide he will be 10.97 metres away from the goal. Which is also 12 yards.

But rather than rounding to 11 metres and making that the standard, soccer has stuck with 12 yards. So it's another example of a mix and match hybrid system.

Seth Brundle

yagan wrote: »

We still measure divisions of GAA pitches in yards, but that more a reflection of the time when the basics were set out.

It would probably make sense to round off to a metric measure as I really can't think of anywhere else I encounter it.

GAA pitches are in metres.
The pitch is to be between 80m and 90m wide and between 130m and 145m long..
The likes of the 45 and 65 are metres from the goal line.
https://www.gaa.ie/api/pdfs/image/upload/ul9vfetopu5mp8pg9svq.pdf

Tyrone212

Its clear the EU and the US are on the same page. The US just reprimanded the UK with a demarche because of their conduct. If the UK continue to push with their bs in not implementing what they signed that relationship will only deteriorate further.

Johnson is isolated. He doesn't have the US on side. EU relations terrible. Almost got blown up by the Russians a couple of days ago. China relations bad. So who do they have?

All they have is lies, bravado , EU evil bullies etc. There will come a point when the proverbial bs will hit the fan and they will have to face reality. Whether that happens with Johnson in charge is debatable but he won't last forever. Plenty in his party just biding their time to twist the knife.

Podge_irl

RobMc59 wrote: »

Would the EU be likely to do that or trigger art 16?
An unswerving dogmatic approach could play into Johnson's hands as an EU enforced border between NI and Ireland would put the EU in the pantomime villains position which brexiteers would exploit.

The EU are already pantomime villains in the UK. Unfortunately for the Tories pretty much every single other country puts the blame squarely at the feet of the UK and will continue to do so if the NIP falls apart.

yagan

I can't see Bojo backing out of the NIP but I can see him milking the appearance of threatening to just to look good for Brexit supporters.

His number one priority is reelection so the priority is to keep the appearance of confrontation with the EU constantly stoked. Brexit was the mandate on which he won a majority so the electorate will indulge all his inconsistencies.

CelticRambler

yagan wrote: »

I can't see Bojo backing out of the NIP but I can see him milking the appearance of threatening to just to look good for Brexit supporters.

I have been wondering if we're seeing a "Plan B" being played out. Some time ago, it was suggested that Johnson would vacate N°10 Downing Street in a blaze of glory, having "Got Brexit Done", led the Tories to a magnificent electoral victory and vanquished the coronavirus. The G7 summit should have been the pinnacle of his success, demonstrating how an Independent Britain could lead the world.

Instead, six months later, thanks to the NIP, Brexit doesn't feel like it's done, the virus is back with a vengeance (helped, in part, by Johnson's own desire to go gallivanting around India), and the G7 summit ended up being a showcase for world unity - with everyone against Britain.

If he bows out now, his legacy will be all the failures of Brexit; he'll be nothing more than the third British PM to have been taken out by the Brexit bear-trap; he'll have left behind a plague-ravaged island, isolated from the world by travel restrictions; and historians may yet lay at his door the credit for catalysing the break-up of the Kingdom. His only option, now, is to fight, fight, fight: China, Russia, the EU. Whether the rest of us see him as Don Quixote or King Canute doesn't feed into the equation, as long as the Great British Public applaud his heroic efforts.

Strazdas

yagan wrote: »

I can't see Bojo backing out of the NIP but I can see him milking the appearance of threatening to just to look good for Brexit supporters.

His number one priority is reelection so the priority is to keep the appearance of confrontation with the EU constantly stoked. Brexit was the mandate on which he won a majority so the electorate will indulge all his inconsistencies.

Tony Connelly suggests the Protocol working well would be bad news for Johnson. It would mean improved relations with the EU, something he doesn't want and would be a vote loser with Tory voters.

The funny thing about all this is that Brexiteers are obsessed with the EU whilst Europe has long since lost interest in the UK.

fly_agaric

Strazdas wrote: »

Tony Connelly suggests the Protocol working well would be bad news for Johnson. It would mean improved relations with the EU, something he doesn't want and would be a vote loser with Tory voters.

That theory makes sense. He replaced Gove, who at least managed to work out an agreement with the EU on implementing the protocol, with Lord Frost.
Frost just seems to spend alot of time shouting and complaining at the EU that everything is their fault in the Telegraph and other Tory comics (am sure it goes down well with the base). Not sure if he's done anything constructive.

Strazdas

fly_agaric wrote: »

That theory makes sense. He replaced Gove, who at least managed to work out an agreement with the EU on implementing the protocol, with Lord Frost.
Frost just seems to spend alot of time shouting and complaining at the EU that everything is their fault in the Telegraph and other Tory comics (am sure it goes down well with the base). Not sure if he's done anything constructive.

He has some strange views on international trade too. He thinks rules and regulations are mostly unnecessary and that countries should shake hands and 'agree' to match each other's standards, but without signing anything (with the ECJ being anathema to him).

yagan

Strazdas wrote: »

Tony Connelly suggests the Protocol working well would be bad news for Johnson. It would mean improved relations with the EU, something he doesn't want and would be a vote loser with Tory voters.

The funny thing about all this is that Brexiteers are obsessed with the EU whilst Europe has long since lost interest in the UK.

If I were to apply akums razor of the simplest answer is generally the right one then I reckon the NIP is simply too complicated for the average Brexiter to even care about. Even TPP deals aren't exciting Brexiters anymore, they're too remote.

I think with the EU moving on the simplest course for bojo from here is to turn the Brexit struggle internal, to turn on the enemies within, remoaners, minorities and immigrants.

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

The funny thing about all this is that Brexiteers are obsessed with the EU whilst Europe has long since lost interest in the UK.

A lot of brexiteers would be dailymail readers and any articles about the EU still get a lot of traction. Large numbers of comments and plenty of vitriol.

ClosedAccountFuzzy

Regarding the US, forgetting about the blip that was Trump, I think it's worth bearing in mind that the EU quite literally is a product of US policy in Europe. It grew out of the Marshall Plan / European Recovery Program has been a huge economic partner for the US in the post WWII world, and has ensured relative peace and stability in Europe, as well as being a counterweight against China and Russia.

What Trump was doing in calling the EU an enemy, was undoing 70 years of US policy in Europe and undermining one of its absolutely key relationships.

Brexit is very much part of that same agenda and you can see a thread running through all sorts of far right and extreme nationalist movements in Eastern Europe that seem to have their strings pulled in Moscow or by people who wish to smash up both European and US federal regulatory systems in favour of unregulated oligarchy.

I wouldn't underestimate how seriously the sane side of the US takes the EU. It's a very different view to the tabloid-tainted, oligarch-loving, world order trashing, contrarian mess that is the modern Tories and English nationalism.

Then if you look at the Good Friday Agreement and Northern Irish Peace Process that is very much one of the major successes of late 20th century US diplomacy and international relations and the Democrats (and some of the remaining respectable Republicans) and particularly, people like the Clintons would tend to take great pride in. It's very much part of their legacy and it's something that Brexiteers are imperilling.

Britain has history in this too. They nearly cost the US a hugely strategic NATO base in Keflavik in Iceland, which was an essential part of the Atlantic missile defences, and all because of a nonsense 'war' over fish, once again massively driven by jingoism and tabloids.

I cannot realistically see the US doing anything other than trying to calm the situation down and leaning quite hard on Johnson to solve it. In reality, Washington is going to take Dublin and Brussels' lead on this, not Johnson's.

Also in terms of domestic US politics, the UK does not really have a lobby beyond its own diplomatic missions and the military links, which the US arguably doesn't need, but the UK depends on quite heavily. The Irish-American lobby, however, wields huge soft power on both sides of the house. It's not even a lobby, but rather that Irish Americans (and others) will tend to support Irish issues.

They also forget quite easily that the US history with the UK is one that's not dissimilar to our own. I been in bars in Boston where someone from England forgot themselves and started on about 'the colonies' and got a very frosty reception to put it mildly. They seem to forget that the US formed out of revolution against the British. It has a modern relationship with the UK that is not quite what the UK imagines it to be.

McGiver

Tyrone212 wrote:

Johnson is isolated. He doesn't have the US on side. EU relations terrible. Almost got blown up by the Russians a couple of days ago. China relations bad. So who do they have?

CANZUK

... who don't really care about them and are looking to profit from their stupidity (OZ FTA etc)

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

A lot of brexiteers would be dailymail readers and any articles about the EU still get a lot of traction. Large numbers of comments and plenty of vitriol.

Some of us might have assumed that Brexiteers would move on after leaving the EU, but it seems the whole raison d'etre of British Eurosceptics is to hate the EU (they probably still think of themselves as Eurosceptics, even outside the EU). They urge Remainers to 'move on', but bizarrely don't seem to have moved on themselves.

lawred2

Seth Brundle wrote: »

GAA pitches are in metres.
The pitch is to be between 80m and 90m wide and between 130m and 145m long..
The likes of the 45 and 65 are metres from the goal line.
https://www.gaa.ie/api/pdfs/image/upload/ul9vfetopu5mp8pg9svq.pdf

Tis is a bit off topic but the minimum distance allows the two 65s to coincide and be the midway in the field. Don't think I've even seen a GAA pitch laid out like that though.

An Ciarraioch

An interesting byproduct of Brexit - with UK soccer academies unable to sign Irish players before the age of 18, many clubs in Ligue 1, the Bundesliga and Serie A are filling the gap:

https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/soccer/arid-40322996.html

View

RobMc59 wrote: »

I sometimes wonder what is most important to the EU,the protocol or the GFA.If the protocol goes badly would th EU want to construct a border wall saying the UK made us do it,risking the wrath of the superpower that is the US?
That could be how Johnson and co want it to play out.

What’s important to the EU is the integrity of the Single Market. Both the NI protocol or the GFA are of secondary and tertiary importance respectively. It’s ultimately irrelevant to the EU (as a whole) and to most member states (bar Ireland) as to where the border checks are carried out.

If they can be carried out at the sea, that’s wonderful; if not, a land border would be equally fine to everyone else bar Ireland.

The Brexiters have always been counting on the fact that the prospect of a land border is unthinkable here, so they are in no rush to implement a sea border. In so far as they are concerned - rightly imo - Ireland has no “or else”, so they will continue to thumb their nose to operating the NI protocol.

FrancieBrady

View wrote: »

What’s important to the EU is the integrity of the Single Market. Both the NI protocol or the GFA are of secondary and tertiary importance respectively. It’s ultimately irrelevant to the EU (as a whole) and to most member states (bar Ireland) as to where the border checks are carried out.

If they can be carried out at the sea, that’s wonderful; if not, a land border would be equally fine to everyone else bar Ireland.

The Brexiters have always been counting on the fact that the prospect of a land border is unthinkable here, so they are in no rush to implement a sea border. In so far as they are concerned - rightly imo - Ireland has no “or else”, so they will continue to thumb their nose to operating the NI protocol.

And yet, even though it 'didn't matter' to anyone nobody in the EU suggested it in the 5/6 years since the vote.

You are stretching a bit there.

fash

RobMc59 wrote: »

I sometimes wonder what is most important to the EU,the protocol or the GFA.If the protocol goes badly would th EU want to construct a border wall saying the UK made us do it,risking the wrath of the superpower that is the US?
That could be how Johnson and co want it to play out.

How would the "EU" construct a border wall? What does "go badly" mean? The UK continues to play games? Why would the EU not address those directly by suing the UK?
There is no way that a situation evolves where a border is needed without it being obvious that UK games led to the situation. So all US wrath will remain (rightly) on the UK.

Podge_irl

View wrote: »

What’s important to the EU is the integrity of the Single Market. Both the NI protocol or the GFA are of secondary and tertiary importance respectively. It’s ultimately irrelevant to the EU (as a whole) and to most member states (bar Ireland) as to where the border checks are carried out.

So every single member of the EU council and parliament and every member of government of EU member states have been consistently and repeatedly lying over the past 5 years? And then what, they finally do a complete about face out of nowhere at some pre-ordained moment?

eire4

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

An interesting byproduct of Brexit - with UK soccer academies unable to sign Irish players before the age of 18, many clubs in Ligue 1, the Bundesliga and Serie A are filling the gap:

https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/soccer/arid-40322996.html

Think we will see more players staying in the new League of Ireland academy teams as well and spending a few years in the first team at the League of Ireland as well as some moving to other EU countries at younger ages will hopefully help in terms of creating a better pathway for our elite level youngsters and give them a better chance to make it at the top level and thus help our national team as well. A small and certainly unforeseen result of brexit that on balance should be for the better of our most promising young players.

BonnieSituation

yagan wrote: »

We still measure divisions of GAA pitches in yards, but that more a reflection of the time when the basics were set out.

It would probably make sense to round off to a metric measure as I really can't think of anywhere else I encounter it.

45 metre, 65 metre, 13 metre... Nope...

Now, 18 yard box, 6 yard box ..

Enzokk

RobMc59 wrote: »

I sometimes wonder what is most important to the EU,the protocol or the GFA.If the protocol goes badly would th EU want to construct a border wall saying the UK made us do it,risking the wrath of the superpower that is the US?
That could be how Johnson and co want it to play out.

The NIP only exists to protect the GFA. So I don't think it is about the choosing one over the other, it is whether the UK will accept their obligations under the GFA and therefore implement the NIP.

The only party that is threatening anything at the moment is the party that left the EU, signed an agreement and is willfully not implementing the same agreement. The idea that you are posting about is once again a very Brexiter type of argument, that it is somehow the EU's fault that or that the EU will be blamed by the US for UK actions.

I will say it again, just in case it is not understood. Brexit was a UK choice, the consequences of that choice fall on the UK. It was impossible to square the circle of NI with Brexit. This was known in this thread from the day after the result was known, but was never discussed or dismissed as project fear. We have been posting about squaring a circle that cannot be done for a long time. Anyone that even thinks of trying to put 1% of blame on Ireland or the EU is either an idiot or knowingly putting forward false facts - they are lying. It is amazing that all this time we still have these noises come in from people that are making decisions in the UK.

yagan

Enzokk wrote: »

I will say it again, just in case it is not understood. .

The likes of Rob understand alright but are unable to internalise that EU = Ireland + 26.

View

Podge_irl wrote: »

So every single member of the EU council and parliament and every member of government of EU member states have been consistently and repeatedly lying over the past 5 years? And then what, they finally do a complete about face out of nowhere at some pre-ordained moment?

I have no idea where you are coming up with the idea that I suggested they are or were lying, so your point is a bit irrelevant.

The reality we face is that, after years of negotiations, we ended up with the current version of the NI protocol. Right now, Brexiters aren’t even pretending to operate that protocol (ie the sea border). There is currently less delay for trucks rolling off the ferries in Belfast than there is for trucks rolling through the toll booths on our motorways. In other words, the protocol is effectively meaningless.

And, if you note, no one is busting a guy to apply sanctions against the U.K. so they will enforce the sea border as per the protocol. We won’t pick a fight over this and no one in the rest of the EU has any incentive to do so if we won’t.That’s the current situation.

Johnson meanwhile is hell bent on allowing hormone laden Australian meat into the U.K. Once any of that meat lands in Britain, it’ll be in NI within a day or two and in trucks over the border into the Republic shortly after that. If British farmers fear that Johnson’s plans will devastate U.K. farms, are we really willing to sacrifice Irish farms because, faced with a U.K. refusal to implement the protocol, we won’t enforce a land border?

Schrodinger's Protocol. No checks or implementation while also negatively impacting the people of NI and causing a constitutional crisis.

RobMc59

Enzokk wrote: »

The NIP only exists to protect the GFA. So I don't think it is about the choosing one over the other, it is whether the UK will accept their obligations under the GFA and therefore implement the NIP.

The only party that is threatening anything at the moment is the party that left the EU, signed an agreement and is willfully not implementing the same agreement. The idea that you are posting about is once again a very Brexiter type of argument, that it is somehow the EU's fault that or that the EU will be blamed by the US for UK actions.

I will say it again, just in case it is not understood. Brexit was a UK choice, the consequences of that choice fall on the UK. It was impossible to square the circle of NI with Brexit. This was known in this thread from the day after the result was known, but was never discussed or dismissed as project fear. We have been posting about squaring a circle that cannot be done for a long time. Anyone that even thinks of trying to put 1% of blame on Ireland or the EU is either an idiot or knowingly putting forward false facts - they are lying. It is amazing that all this time we still have these noises come in from people that are making decisions in the UK.

I see the advantages the protocol gives NI and looking beyond the histrionics of the DUP is probably more likely to keep NI within the UK.
I wonder though,if the crowd within the UK pulling Johnson's strings would engineer a situation where the EU started to build a border between NI and Ireland.
I speculated yesterday about what is more important to the EU,the protocol or the GFA and the majority appeared to think the protocol.
In addition,to date,there is only one organisation which has actually come close to triggering anything which would override any agreement.

Enzokk

RobMc59 wrote: »

I see the advantages the protocol gives NI and looking beyond the histrionics of the DUP is probably more likely to keep NI within the UK.
I wonder though,if the crowd within the UK pulling Johnson's strings would engineer a situation where the EU started to build a border between NI and Ireland.
I speculated yesterday about what is more important to the EU,the protocol or the GFA and the majority appeared to think the protocol.
In addition,to date,there is only one organisation which has actually come close to triggering anything which would override any agreement.

This is the thing Rob, before any building of infrastructure will happen between NI and Ireland, there will be sanctions and disruptions on the Dover to Calais crossings. Think the worst case scenario that were given of Kent becoming a big lorry car park.

Due to that happening because of checks happening in France, it will mean trucks taking things to the UK will be apprehensive as they will not want to be stuck on the way back as it will cost the haulage company money, because they work out their cost on both journeys, so while there may be no checks at Dover for goods coming in from the EU, will there actually be trucks going that way to bring you guys goods from the EU?

Have we forgotten the 999 calls over KFC not having chicken that one day? What do you think will happen when bog roll is out of stock and its not due to a pandemic but the actions of the government? This will happen almost immediately, even before our government gets together to start the discussion on how we are going to start planning to build infrastructure for checks.

So that is the calculation our government will have made in regards to the protocol and a possible border on this island. Yes we could be forced into it, but with the actions the EU can take before that ever takes shape it may never be needed as either the PM at the time will cave or his government will collapse in chaos and a new government will come in that will be more sensible and agree to implementing the NIP or measures that eases the NIP for NI and UK business (SPS alignment). We also have the UK giving us the indication on how long it takes to build infrastructure that is required. They have as yet not built the facilities in NI that they agreed to in December. So we will have at least 7 months to dither and delay before that needs to happen.

Seeing the scandals that are happening on a weekly scale it is not out of the realms of possibility that Johnson will not be long in charge. Hancock was the first minister to resign but there are others in the firing line including Gove and Patel in regards to contracts for contacts that in any other normal time would have meant them looking for new jobs. But we are still in unprecedentent times and Johnson may survive for his full term. I suspect though people will get tired of the sleaze he brings with him, or at least hope people will get tired of it.

That is the long answer on how I see the EU protecting the GFA by asking the UK to implement the NIP. Again, it is not a question of one or the other, the one is protection of the other. If the NIP falls apart then so does the GFA, and that is all on the side that doesn't want to live up to what it signed.

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

I wonder though,if the crowd within the UK pulling Johnson's strings would engineer a situation where the EU started to build a border between NI and Ireland.

There is already a border between NI and Ireland. It's frictionless, but it's there all the same: drive across it and the road-signs change from kilometres to miles, money changes from Euros to Pounds, postboxes change from green to red. Other than the odd troglodyte, there's no-one in the Republic who doesn't accept that "the North" is a different country, but one to which we have seamless access - in almost exactly the same way that the French and the Swiss co-exist.

But whereas the Franco-Swiss border is marked by hundreds of disused guard-houses, toll gates and lorry-parks, these are tolerated by the local population because they represent nothing more than a long-established frontier between two territories (and, for the most part, are built along natural geographical features) the equivalent structures in Ireland are more akin to the Berlin Wall - a completely artificial barrier built by an invading army with the sole intention of splitting a country apart.

As has been discussed at length in previous threads, re-building the physical infrastructure that was repeatedly bombed throughout the 70s, 80s and 90s is neither sensible nor reasonable in this day and age. There are, according to the Brexiters, "technological solutions" available to enable seamless border checks, so by their own logic, the Irish Sea controls should be needed only for a very short time while we wait for them to come onstream. :rolleyes: In the meantime, the vast majority of us - European or identify-as-British - are quite happy to recognise NI as a special case and have inspectors working in a shed in the ports of Belfast or Larne.