Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

ambro25 wrote: »

EUSS-registered or not, just you wait until they start experiencing British life post-1st July ...
I’ve consistently told any EU27inUK who would listen, for the last 4-5 years, that this was coming down to them, and likely sooner and harder than they’d imagine.

Brace for the anger, real and ‘merely’ political, to get notched up a fair few pegs on the back of it. The Tories need a belligerent EU, and this is the surest way of achieving it.

I don't think so. If life in post-Brexit Britain gets too uncomfortable for any EU27inUK, they have the option of upping sticks and moving to a more welcoming country - there are, after all, 27 of them within range of a quick flight or a long drive.

But if there is mounting evidence of the UK government being mean and nasty to the EU27 (more like EU26, excluding the Irish) then "Brussels" won't be slow to remind the UK that the TCA was signed on an "all or nothing" basis, and treating EU citizens nicely was part of the deal.

I wouldn't be surprised if France's unilateral extension to the deadline for British citizens to apply for the French equivalent of "settled status" was in some way meant to put pressure on the UK to do the same, perhaps as the price it needs to pay for an extension to the NIP.

McGiver

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Frost is asked for a tangible benefit arising from Brexit that wasn't there five years ago.
He says the ability to change a government or every policy of that government overnight as this wasn't possible for almost 50 years.

https://twitter.com/UKandEU/status/1409059184998600708

"So I think...living in a democracy where everything can change, and everybody can influence things is a really important benefit" --- so that means Frost implies that the UK was not a democracy for the last 50 years. Right.

"I think, if we're looking at the economic side, I hope we will have seen [insert a random list of stuff]..." --- He hopes, OK.

He was asked for specific tangible benefits of Brexit and offered an abstract idea of newly regained democracy, which is of course is an outright lie, and then an "economic hope". That's not much if you ask me...

Strazdas

McGiver wrote: »

"So I think...living in a democracy where everything can change, and everybody can influence things is a really important benefit" --- so that means Frost implies that the UK was not a democracy for the last 50 years. Right.

"I think, if we're looking at the economic side, I hope we will have seen [insert a random list of stuff]..." --- He hopes, OK.

He was asked for specific tangible benefits of Brexit and offered an abstract idea of newly regained democracy, which is of course is an outright lie, and then an "economic hope". That's not much if you ask me...

Fintan O'Toole talks of 'imaginary freedom from an imaginary oppressor'.

Problem with this is there is no actual pay off, no tangible benefit.

redcup342

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I think we shouldn’t count our chickens sort of speak the Tories will redirect anger at minorities and foreigners
I wouldn’t be surprised if CTA is next on chopping block, there isn’t even a peace of paper like NI protocol that we can point at when “no Irish need apply” returns

CTA is nothing to do with the EU as the UK Gov point out themselves:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/memorandum-of-understanding-between-the-uk-and-ireland-on-the-cta/joint-statement-of-8-may-2019-between-the-uk-government-and-government-of-ireland-on-the-common-travel-area

Both the Government of Ireland and the UK Government are committed to maintaining the CTA in all circumstances, recognising it pre-dates Irish and UK membership of the European Union and is not dependent on it. Neither Irish citizens in the UK nor British citizens in Ireland are required to take any action to protect their status and rights associated with the CTA. Both governments are committed to undertake all the work necessary, including through legislative provision, to ensure that the agreed CTA rights and privileges are protected.

ambro25

redcup342 wrote: »

Immigration authorities (Border force or whatever) are horrible to deal with any any country.

In the resent months the German expat facebook groups are filled with complaints of how slow, complicated and unnecessary the process is with the Auslanderamt.

Followed by posts from Third country nationals saying "welcome to the club"

It's all siloed as well, in the Spanish, Dutch and Belgian fb groups they are all complaining about a service thats always been that way. They have just never dealt with it before so their experience of it not matter how good is it, is going to be terrible.

INIS in Ireland are completely rubbish as well imo, not their fault. It's just a very poorly funded service (everywhere) because the users can't vote and the workers have a job for life.

Or in the case of the Netherlands they've outsourced the work so some guy with very little experience on a zero hour contract could be deciding if you are granted permission to remain or permission to work.

There is no hostility, just people that never had to interact with these services before are only experiencing them now.

In EU countries with mandatory registration for incoming EU27ers (BITD and still now), they should already have had this experience, at least to a limited extent.

That’s certainly been the case for years and longer in Holland and Belgium. Not so for Spain or France, I understand.

Of course, the degree of procedural integration/overlap permitted between the historical EU nationals’ registration system and the system for 3rd party nationals will vary from country to country. It was extremely streamlined and painless here in Lux (my wife went through it right away when it started last July), and yet up to about half of the 6500 BritsinLux had yet apply when I looked at it the other week.

ambro25

CelticRambler wrote: »

I don't think so. If life in post-Brexit Britain gets too uncomfortable for any EU27inUK, they have the option of upping sticks and moving to a more welcoming country - there are, after all, 27 of them within range of a quick flight or a long drive.

I did not refer to EU27inUK’s flight capacity, merely to their fast-changing environment, wherein they are being transitioned de facto to the UK’s very long-established hostile environment in the next few days, named so after the enforcement model championed by Ms May bitd, wherein your every day stakeholders are coerced to make your life hell, by intent or omission, under duress of severe penalties if they get it wrong (and thus, wherein they enforce the hostile rather than benevolent approach by default, for self-preservation).

You also assume that most EU27inUK are in a situation where they could do so (i.e. flight overnight). I’d argue that very many could not. All sorts including children (in multinational families, never mind alone), spouses, vulnerables, elderly and more.

But if there is mounting evidence of the UK government being mean and nasty to the EU27 (more like EU26, excluding the Irish) then "Brussels" won't be slow to remind the UK that the TCA was signed on an "all or nothing" basis, and treating EU citizens nicely was part of the deal.

I wouldn't be surprised if France's unilateral extension to the deadline for British citizens to apply for the French equivalent of "settled status" was in some way meant to put pressure on the UK to do the same, perhaps as the price it needs to pay for an extension to the NIP.

I’ve seen how Brussels handled EU27inUK and UKinEU27 over the last 5 years, at the coalface. And though I’ll readily acknowledge the non-trivial issue that the matter falls astride EU competences (EU Nat vs TPN, date-dependent), a fact well-known and played upon by the UK, I’m far from impressed, and so not even looking at chickens to try and count them yet.

The French extension was welcome…but is the 11th hour conclusion to a complete and epic cluster**** in the background.

CelticRambler

ambro25 wrote: »

and yet up to about half of the 6500 BritsinLux had yet apply when I looked at it the other week.

That's somewhat akin to the French government's observation, and I wonder if these figures are entirely reliable, i.e. are these British citizens who are (and have been for a long time) genuinely resident in [any EU country] or do they form part of the foot-in-both-camps contingent who've been enjoying life in [EU country] as freely moving EU citizens, but never really had their home here. As a result, they'll have shown up in various surveys and estimates, but were probably never really real.

McGiver

Strazdas wrote: »

Fintan O'Toole talks of 'imaginary freedom from an imaginary oppressor'.

Problem with this is there is no actual pay off, no tangible benefit.

Just finished reading the 1984. Scary parallels there with the current UK in terms of how to use propaganda tools effectively.

And what's worse is that Johnsonism (incl. Brexit)) is likely not a deliberate strategy (at least not all of it), but basically a band of corrupted clowns running the country like idiots and stealing public funds. What would happen if they the UK government was taken over by people who have genuinely deliberate malicious strategy?

Some of the hardcoded ERG ideaologues for example...

redcup342

ambro25 wrote: »

In EU countries with mandatory registration for incoming EU27ers (BITD and still now), they should already have had this experience, at least to a limited extent.

That’s certainly been the case for years and longer in Holland and Belgium. Not so for Spain or France, I understand.

Of course, the degree of procedural integration/overlap permitted between the historical EU nationals’ registration system and the system for 3rd party nationals will vary from country to country. It was extremely streamlined and painless here in Lux (my wife went through it right away when it started last July), and yet up to about half of the 6500 BritsinLux had yet apply when I looked at it the other week.

Not the case as all.

In Netherlands, Belgium and Germany you register with the local Gemeente (Holland Belgium) or the Landeshauptstadt in Germany, these are the City administrations and nothing to do with the Immigration office.

E.G. Registering with the Landeshauptstadt in Dusseldorf is an online appointment and 10 minutes of effort.

Registering in the Gemeente in Den Haag/Eindhoven same affair.

Registering with the IND / Auslanderamt, be prepared to spend a whole day and wait months for a response and get your forms returned repeatedly as you didn't have a stamp or offical sworn translation of some document etc.

Interacting with the foreigner offices in these countries is not a requirement for any EU Citizen.

CelticRambler

ambro25 wrote: »

You also assume that most EU27inUK are in a situation where they could do so (i.e. flight overnight). I’d argue that very many could not. All sorts including children (in multinational families, never mind alone), spouses, vulnerables, elderly and more.

"Overnight" would certainly be pushing it, but the vast majority of EUinUK could, if their living conditions deteriorated rapidly, leave in a very short space of time.

It's perhaps rather cold-hearted to say it, but if an Afghan or Somali family can get themselves East to West across the English channel, then a French, Spanish or Bulgarian family should have no greater difficulty crossing from West to East.

McGiver

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Just like UK is committed to the terms of NI protocol and GFA?

Have you not spotted a trend by now of Tories not wanting to be tied down by any treaty/agreement etc?

As per these lunatics, Johnsonists (or ERGists? :cool:), any int'l treaty is a reduction of UK (English) sovereignty and that's not acceptable. That's the new doctrine which is frankly not very far from Russian doctrine.
Russian treaties are also similarly worthless, if they sign any.

ambro25

CelticRambler wrote: »

That's somewhat akin to the French government's observation, and I wonder if these figures are entirely reliable, i.e. are these British citizens who are (and have been for a long time) genuinely resident in [any EU country] or do they form part of the foot-in-both-camps contingent who've been enjoying life in [EU country] as freely moving EU citizens, but never really had their home here. As a result, they'll have shown up in various surveys and estimates, but were probably never really real.

For France it may well be the case, since there is no obligation to register locally.

But for Lux it’s definitely not the case, since registration is mandatory within 3 months of arrival, every public department is data cross-ref’d with the others, and it really is too small and expensive a country to live/stay off-books for any length of time.

There may well be some statistical spillage factor of the type you mention, but nowhere near on the scale of half a contingent of resident foreign nationals, never mind thousands of them.

ambro25

redcup342 wrote: »

Not the case as all.

In Netherlands, Belgium and Germany you register with the local Gemeente (Holland Belgium) or the Landeshauptstadt in Germany, these are the City administrations and nothing to do with the Immigration office.

E.G. Registering with the Landeshauptstadt in Dusseldorf is an online appointment and 10 minutes of effort.

Registering in the Gemeente in Den Haag/Eindhoven same affair.

Registering with the IND / Auslanderamt, be prepared to spend a whole day and wait months for a response and get your forms returned repeatedly as you didn't have a stamp or offical sworn translation of some document etc.

Interacting with the foreigner offices in these countries is not a requirement for any EU Citizen.

Fair enough, consider me set right.

It must mean that these local authorities are not data-interfaced with the nation’s immigration department, and/or that WA-related initiatives straddling both areas of competence were poorly designed.

Well, another reason in hindsight, why we picked the right country in 2018

Bit in bold: was exactly the procedure and length of time which Mrs followed to transform her EU28 residence card into her ‘WA Brit’ residence card. Purpose of meeting was simply to verify ID in person. Same story with exchanging driving license.

Strazdas

McGiver wrote: »

Just finished reading the 1984. Scary parallels there with the current UK in terms of how to use propaganda tools effectively.

And what's worse is that Johnsonism (incl. Brexit)) is likely not a deliberate strategy (at least not all of it), but basically a band of corrupted clowns running the country like idiots and stealing public funds. What would happen if they the UK government was taken over by people who have genuinely deliberate malicious strategy?

Some of the hardcoded ERG ideaologues for example...

There are definite parallels with 1984. Orwelll was warning of the population being manipulated by propaganda and what we now call 'gaslighting', being instructed who to hate on and that only the government has your best interests at heart.

As you say though, the Tories are not 'evil' per se. They are merely greedy and incompetent and think it's the destiny of Eton toffs to run the country like a fiefdom. The ERG shouldn't even be even be in a mainstream party and it's only because of the FPTP system that they are. Elsewhere in Europe, they would have a far right party of their own.

redcup342

ambro25 wrote: »

Fair enough, consider me set right.

It must mean that these local authorities are not data-interfaced with the nation’s immigration department, and/or that WA-related initiatives straddling both areas of competence were poorly designed.

Well, another reason in hindsight, why we picked the right country in 2018

Bit in bold: was exactly the procedure and length of time which Mrs followed to transform her EU28 residence card into her ‘WA Brit’ residence card. Purpose of meeting was simply to verify ID in person. Same story with exchanging driving license.

Depends, I only on know in the Netherlands its quite centralised with everyone have a BSN (Burger Service Nummer) this is info based on your personal data and used by the respective arms of Government. (E.G. City Hall, Health Insurance, Social Security etc) IND have their own local records additionally to that data source.

In Germany it's decentralised (for obvious historical reasons)

Looks at the reviews:
Auslanderamt Dusseldorf
https://goo.gl/maps/21crparNW5ehwhTv6

INIS Office Dublin
https://goo.gl/maps/ij7RNFHZJfnvMAcp6

IND Office Den Haag
https://goo.gl/maps/v2QYsmx1NnKUfxTs7

Office des Etangers Brussels
https://www.google.com/search?q=Office+des+Etrangers+brussels#lrd=0x47c3c39c46c68e07:0x9cef34ff163059a6,1,,,

Overseas Visitors Records Office
https://goo.gl/maps/Fcowf4gdBF5stBna8

Common theme going on there, should have checked them before they voted for Brexit :pac:

I never have to step a foot in those places

Zubeneschamali

Strazdas wrote: »

Fintan O'Toole talks of 'imaginary freedom from an imaginary oppressor'.

Problem with this is there is no actual pay off, no tangible benefit.

The advantage is that no-one can show they don't have that freedom now, since they had it all along.

Strazdas

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The advantage is that no-one can show they don't have that freedom now, since they had it all along.

It's a big lose-lose for them. No new freedoms and they lose a whole load of stuff such as freedom of movement, plus many new costs and charges.

Zubeneschamali

Strazdas wrote: »

It's a big lose-lose for them. No new freedoms and they lose a whole load of stuff such as freedom of movement, plus many new costs and charges.

But they are not under the heel of faceless unelected Eurocrats! Freedom!

Akrasia

Has anyone else started to get redirected to the BBC.Com page even when specifically typing in the .co.uk in the address bar?

Seems to only be affecting their news content

British news for British people getting their British version of Brexit, while the respectable face of the BBC is preserved to the outside world, much like how RT puts a very different spin on things for the domestic audience

Peregrinus

Akrasia wrote: »

Has anyone else started to get redirected to the BBC.Com page even when specifically typing in the .co.uk in the address bar?

Seems to only be affecting their news content

British news for British people getting their British version of Brexit, while the respectable face of the BBC is preserved to the outside world, much like how RT puts a very different spin on things for the domestic audience

Not quite so sinister. The BBC is subject to regulation which, among other things, imposes different requirements about the way in which it can include advertising in its online services (a) provided to UK residents, and (b) provided to everyone else. I think the two websites are set up to facilitate this, and you are redirected to the appropriate one based on your IP address.

The also show you different news stories depending on your location (and they do this for people within the UK too) but I don't think they need the two separate website addresses for that. They can do it on just the one website.

Sam Russell

BBC have been redirecting to BBC.com for years. I am not sure they offer different versions of the same story, but they may select stories differently for 'foreign' readers.

An Ciarraioch

British exports of flour have fallen 25% since the New Year, with NI mills taking up a third of the slack, and EU suppliers providing the remainder:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/agribusiness-and-food/brexit-irish-bakeries-turn-from-britain-and-look-to-eu-and-ni-1.4605986?mode=amp&__twitter_impression=true

redcup342

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Brexiteers used to say “oh it’s only a January blip”

But looking at cso over last few months there has been a permanent rebalancing of trade away from uk

Reminds me of how internet traffic would route around damaged nodes.

We are 6 months into Brexit and still no positives to be seen, the attribution of faster vaccinations to pluckiness has now finally hit reality of new variants throwing a spanner in half arsed vaccination campaign

The only positive is we don’t have to listen to Farages nonsense in EUPARL anymore

correct horse battery staple

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Brexiteers used to say “oh it’s only a January blip”

But looking at cso over last few months there has been a permanent rebalancing of trade away from uk

Reminds me of how internet traffic would route around damaged nodes.

We are 6 months into Brexit and still no positives to be seen, the attribution of faster vaccinations to pluckiness has now finally hit reality of new variants throwing a spanner in half arsed vaccination campaign

Half arsed! They've the highest rate of vaccination in Europe.

RobMc59

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Brexiteers used to say “oh it’s only a January blip”

But looking at cso over last few months there has been a permanent rebalancing of trade away from uk

Reminds me of how internet traffic would route around damaged nodes.

We are 6 months into Brexit and still no positives to be seen, the attribution of faster vaccinations to pluckiness has now finally hit reality of new variants throwing a spanner in half arsed vaccination campaign

According to the apparently highly regarded euronews the UK is the most successful country in regards vaccine rollout.Variants are an unfortunate fact of life for everyone,not just the UK as illustrated by the rise of infection in countries like Portugal for example.

redcup342

Deleted User wrote: »

Half arsed! They've the highest rate of vaccination in Europe.

Half arsed as in they increased the time between first and second dose against the manufacturers recommendations and very little evidence meaning they could get more people vaccinated with the first dose.

Effectively they went to a roulette wheel in vegas and bet everything on black.

The decision was a political one as they needed a win.

It went well but it could have went very very badly and they still top the leaderboard in overall deaths when compared to any other EU Country.

Padre_Pio

redcup342 wrote: »

Half arsed as in they increased the time between first and second dose against the manufacturers recommendations and very little evidence meaning they could get more people vaccinated with the first dose.

Effectively they went to a roulette wheel in vegas and bet everything on black.

The decision was a political one as they needed a win.

It went well but it could have went very very badly and they still top the leaderboard in overall deaths when compared to any other EU Country.

I'd disagree with a lot of this.
True that Britain rushed ahead of Europe (as they were very free to do) and started vaccinating ASAP. Ignoring the advice from AZ was certainly a gamble but it paid off.

UKs vaccination plan has been a clear success, no matter what way you look at it.
They paid over the odds, corralled every vaccine they could get their hands on, and have the highest vaccination rate in Europe by miles for the first 4 months of the year.

Even now, Italy and Germany are only on par.

Also, the death rate in the UK is less than a lot of European countries, Poland, Italy, Czech, Slovakia to name most of them.

Credit where credit's due, the UK did well here.

redcup342

Padre_Pio wrote: »

I'd disagree with a lot of this.
True that Britain rushed ahead of Europe (as they were very free to do) and started vaccinating ASAP. Ignoring the advice from AZ was certainly a gamble but it paid off.

UKs vaccination plan has been a clear success, no matter what way you look at it.
They paid over the odds, corralled every vaccine they could get their hands on, and have the highest vaccination rate in Europe by miles for the first 4 months of the year.

Even now, Italy and Germany are only on par.

Also, the death rate in the UK is less than a lot of European countries, Poland, Italy, Czech, Slovakia to name most of them.

Credit where credit's due, the UK did well here.

Exactly, Germany took the safe approach and is on par with the UK with less deaths.

So they paid more, tooks risks and ended up in the same place as Germany anyway, but now they have borders closing a variant outbreak and another potential lockdown looming.

FFS you had their PM saying on National TV saying Covid wasn't a big deal and just wash your hands, then he caught it himself.

Sam Russell

redcup342 wrote: »

Half arsed as in they increased the time between first and second dose against the manufacturers recommendations and very little evidence meaning they could get more people vaccinated with the first dose.

Effectively they went to a roulette wheel in vegas and bet everything on black.

The decision was a political one as they needed a win.

It went well but it could have went very very badly and they still top the leaderboard in overall deaths when compared to any other EU Country.

They count deaths differently from us though, and as a result count fewer deaths than if they used our criteria. They count anyone who dies within 28 days of a positive diagnosis, but we count anyone who dies with a diagnosis of Covid - either by PCR test or medical diagnosis, and no matter how long after the diagnosis. There is a huge difference.

Our excess deaths compared to pre-Covid is close to zero, but there excess deaths are more like 50% of Covid deaths. It is difficult to check these figures though as the data is generally not available until years after the time.

Enzokk

Extension has been agreed,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1409846735829151750?s=20

The EU will formally announce a three month extension to the chilled meats grace period tomorrow afternoon,
@rtenews
understands.

The announcement will coincide with a UK unilateral declaration agreeing to a number of conditions.

Now it seems like there is an understanding that what is happening is that this extension will allow NI suppliers to update their supply chain away from the UK and either source locally or EU.

6/ Sources say the UK's unilateral declaration effectively means London is acknowledging that such meats can be sourced in Northern Ireland, or other EU member states, including the South, rather than from Great Britain.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1409846742040911874?s=20

This is also another 3 months of abiding by EU standards. So much for taking control.