Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

peter kern

redcup342 wrote: »

Half arsed as in they increased the time between first and second dose against the manufacturers recommendations and very little evidence meaning they could get more people vaccinated with the first dose.

Effectively they went to a roulette wheel in vegas and bet everything on black.

The decision was a political one as they needed a win.

It went well but it could have went very very badly and they still top the leaderboard in overall deaths when compared to any other EU Country.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111779/coronavirus-death-rate-europe-by-country/
i guess this statistic would not agree with you.

redcup342

peter kern wrote: »

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111779/coronavirus-death-rate-europe-by-country/
i guess this statistic would not agree with you.

As of June 20, 2021, Hungary had the highest rate of coronavirus deaths among its population in the European Economic Area at 3,067 deaths per million population. Czechia has recorded 2,832 deaths from coronavirus per million. Furthermore, the UK has the highest number of confirmed coronavirus deaths in Europe, at 127,976.

It's written at the bottom of the page.

Strazdas

Enzokk wrote: »

Extension has been agreed,

Now it seems like there is an understanding that what is happening is that this extension will allow NI suppliers to update their supply chain away from the UK and either source locally or EU.

This is also another 3 months of abiding by EU standards. So much for taking control.

That's good news. Apparently one thing that guided the EU's decision was the Loyalist marching season which will be starting soon. They reckoned it would be unwise to get into a standoff at this time and to buy themselves some extra time.

Strazdas

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Specifically referring to the spacing out of second doze and doubling down on a vaccine that is the least effective of the lot compared to mRNA

All of which is being rowed back on as delta variant thrown spanner in that strategy which was political not scientific

There are quite a few countries with high vaccination rates on paper but are in trouble now for either choosing the Chinese/Russian vaccines or spacing out dozes of AZ

Anyways that’s going off on a tangent, tying vaccinations to Brexit was probably one of the more deplorable things Tories have done and sadly for people dying now it’s backfiring.

I saw a stat last night that the UK had three times more cases yesterday than the entire EU.

It's unclear if their vaccine programme can be deemed a 'success', given the current situation. The whole point of a successful programme would have been to prevent what is currently unfolding there.

ClosedAccountFuzzy

The U.K. at peak covid had very little choice but to go the route they went with vaccines. They had astronomically high case numbers and weren’t really prepared to take social measures in the way that some countries did. The US similarly wasn’t really able to get it together on social measures due to extreme politics, but is now rating itself as the most COVID resilient in the world due to speed of vaccination.

I think you have to give the U.K. credit where credit is due though. Their vaccine rollout was rapid and effective.

The EU got going extremely well by March and April but initially genuinely didn’t have the systems in place and seemed to underestimate the scale of what was needed, as well as having more complex decision making, being driven by tendering and economic concerns more so than just speed. Some of the discussions going on in 2020 were all about costs and were being driven by countries in the east of the EU, some of which now have some of the worst uptake in Europe due to vaccine scepticism and that went off on using non EMA approved vaccines.

I’m extremely anti-Brexit, but I think the EU response to the vaccines will result in a lot of questions and changes to build a serious EU health infrastructure, as we really didn’t handle it as well as we could have, given the huge resources potentially at our disposal.

Brexit and the vaccines also weren’t necessarily connected as any EU country could have gone it alone and several non EU countries also joined the joint purchase. Participation was entirely optional.

Not having the U.K. in the mix likely removed a large country’s expertise, created complexities particularly around AstraZeneca and had the unfortunate mess of the EMA having had to move from London to Amsterdam just ahead of the pandemic.

There was also an extremely unhealthy relationship between the U.K. and EU which was not at all helpful and likely cost large numbers of lives, but we’ll never know exactly what can be attributed to it.

All in all I think Brexit undermined the European regional response (including in the U.K.), by just being hugely messy.

We’ve still got a mess around differences in vaccine passports and travel.

It’s possible had their been a coordinated European regional control of variant ingress, and had the U.K. not been more concerned about Indian trade talks than viruses, the Delta wave wouldn’t be happening now in the U.K. at all and we might have been at less risk.

The sane thing to have done when the pandemic was on the horizon would have been to do a 5 year extension, parking Brexit until the world was back to normal, but that was far too sensible for the Tories. All that mattered was Brexit and the economic damage can be blamed on COVID-19.

Tyrone212

"UK poorest nation per capita in northwest Europe, research shows."

"SNP says figures show why Scotland better off breaking from 'Poor Man of Northwest Europe.'"

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-poorest-northwest-europe-b1874055.html

ambro25

Strazdas wrote: »

I saw a stat last night that the UK had three times more cases yesterday than the entire EU.

It's unclear if their vaccine programme can be deemed a 'success', given the current situation. The whole point of a successful programme would have been to prevent what is currently unfolding there.

It may be wise to recall that vaccination does not prevent infection, it just mitigates the potential for worse outcomes out of an infection.

And equally wise to note, that the current statistical bloom in the UK concerns kids first and foremost, few if any of whom have been vaccinated at all.

I’d echo earlier opinions that the UK has done well with vaccination, all things considered. It’s just so extraordinarily badly managed, that this success counts for beans in the grander scheme of things. After killing off their OAPs en masse last year, they’ve just shifted their herd immunity approach to kids.

Strazdas

ambro25 wrote: »

It may be wise to recall that vaccination does not prevent infection, it just mitigates the potential for worse outcomes out of an infection.

And equally wise to note, that the current statistical bloom in the UK concerns kids first and foremost, few if any of whom have been vaccinated at all.

I’d echo earlier opinions that the UK has done well with vaccination, all things considered. It’s just so extraordinarily badly managed, that this success counts for beans in the grander scheme of things. After killing off their OAPs en masse last year, they’ve just shifted their herd immunity approach to kids.

It's a bizarre paradox that the country deemed to have the most 'successful' and quickest rollout in Europe is now facing the worst outbreak. Too much was made by their media of this success (and often at everyone else's expense).

It will be interesting to see how the Brexit media spin this one. If Johnson is responsible for the vaccines success, is he also responsible for the current wave of infections in the country?

Tyrone212

Hoping for a Brexit trade deal with India led to delta taking over in the UK with lightening speed. They added Bangladesh and Pakistan to red list but left India off of it. Boris had a trip planned there. Then they announced India was going on the red list but not for 3 weeks. A mass exodus to beat the quarantine resulted in 20k landing in the UK from India. Now we're all suffering because of that clown Boris.

CelticRambler

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Now we're all suffering because of that clown Boris.

Hey - don't worry. Thanks to Brexit, the people of Britain can change their government and its policies overnight if they don't like what's being done.





At least that's what Lord Frost said, on the record, the other day. :rolleyes:

BlitzKrieg

Uk's/Europe's vaccine rollout in the media is weird, I got vaccine earlier in the UK then my sister in Ireland, but not by much and we are similar ages (5 year difference)

But I wont get my 2nd shot til after my sister gets her 2nd shot.

So it's kinda weird how it's all being reported as one is a huge success and the other lagging behind.

In terms of Brexit, there is no doubt that it soured any form of cooperation between the EU and the UK.

ClosedAccountFuzzy

CelticRambler wrote: »

Hey - don't worry. Thanks to Brexit, the people of Britain can change their government and its policies overnight if they don't like what's being done.

At least that's what Lord Frost said, on the record, the other day. :rolleyes:

I guess re-electing the House of Lords (including the Lords Spiritual - bishops of the Church of England) will be happening any day now!

Also those instant recall elections for MPs and I suppose no fixed terms, international agreements, constitutional law, stability of any policy, regulation etc just keep changing everything at a whim. That's the best way to ensure things work smoothly.

ClosedAccountFuzzy

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

Uk's/Europe's vaccine rollout in the media is weird, I got vaccine earlier in the UK then my sister in Ireland, but not by much and we are similar ages (5 year difference)

But I wont get my 2nd shot til after my sister gets her 2nd shot.

So it's kinda weird how it's all being reported as one is a huge success and the other lagging behind.

In terms of Brexit, there is no doubt that it soured any form of cooperation between the EU and the UK.

Well, that's how it's spun. The EU rollout is a bit later but once momentum increased it ramped up very rapidly and the gap began to close. That was always to be expected.

It's a marathon, not a sprint. The challenge is achieving adequate mass immunity and I think Ireland and the UK will both likely archive that in really a matter of weeks at this stage. We'll be well and fully vaccinated by the end of the summer.

The media coverage is mostly just the usual drum beating of jingisim.

According to a large swaths of the UK media the Euro has been due to collapse any day now ever since it's launch...

You'd think they would get tired of the spin, but they don't. Just throw on another repeat of Dad's Army!

Padre_Pio

redcup342 wrote: »

Exactly, Germany took the safe approach and is on par with the UK with less deaths.

So they paid more, tooks risks and ended up in the same place as Germany anyway, but now they have borders closing a variant outbreak and another potential lockdown looming.

FFS you had their PM saying on National TV saying Covid wasn't a big deal and just wash your hands, then he caught it himself.

Personally I see them as two separate events.
The UK f*cked up badly in the early stages of the pandemic. Really badly. They flipped the coin on herd immunity and lost.
The EU took a far more responsible outlook.

The UK had a rapid vaccine plan. They flipped the coin on AZ recommended doses and won.
The EU was very slow out of the gate.

Check the results of the last 6 months. The UK death rate is far lower than other EU countries because of their fantastic vaccine plan.
In the long run, the UK will be judged harshly, but they should be given credit for the vaccine program at least in the initial phases.



As FuzzyThinking says it's a marathon, not a sprint.

Leroy42

So the UK have accepted that they need to stay aligned to the EU SPS rules for another 3 months because they are not in a position to take control themselves. Frost commented earlier that continued alignment with SPS, which the EU had offered to deal with the majority of issues, was simply a step too far and would undermine the very essence of Brexit.

This is really quite the climbdown by the UK, who once again were threatening No Deal and lots else but in the end accepted the reality and have now agreed to a further 3 months delay. That is on top of the 6 months they already took, which is of course on top of the transition period they already needed.

ClosedAccountFuzzy

It will be lower for a few weeks, and that's about it.

Many EU countries death rates are plunging and will come converge as the vaccine rollouts have already covered the most vulnerable and other measures have been providing protection too. Those programmes are running at huge speed at the moment.

The vaccine rollout in the US, UK and EU have been pretty rapid and deep.

If you look at somewhere like Japan it only had 6% done a few days ago, an older population and is about to host t the Olympics...

Leroy42

True, but the UK made a massive deal not only of their good vaccine roll-out but also continually, and still do, make the point that they were ahead of a terrible EU all because of Brexit.

Of course that was never the case, but since they played that card, and played it for all it was worth, then it is only right to ask the question of how the EU are now close to being level with the UK and how that has happened despite them being inside the EU.

Of course the answer, as many posters have pointed out, is various things but none of them relate to Brexit (or in a very small way if at all).

Seth Brundle

I just saw this tweet in which the clearance costs now placed on a business for exporting to the EU are listed out. It is interesting to see them laid out clearly.
The claim that Brexit would mean less bureaucracy is obviously shown for what it is...





https://twitter.com/donnyc1975/status/1409870096542191623

Strazdas

The EU rollout was never a "disaster" or "shambles" as the UK press claimed. It was just a bit slow to get going in the January - February period. The significance of the EU-AZ contract row was hugely overstated by the Brexiteers. Yes, it was all a bit messy but only impacted on the EU rollout in a very modest way.

Tyrone212

Paris has become JPMorgan’s main trading center in the European Union, Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said at the inauguration of the bank’s new headquarters in Paris on Tuesday.

The new premises has six trading floors and will see between $300 billion and $400 billion in trading volume every day, Dimon told reporters.

“All European trading, which is stocks, bonds, and derivatives will be going through here”, Dimon said. “It’s the trading hub” for the bank in Europe, he added. The bank now aims to have 800 staff in its Paris office by the end of 2022, up from 260 in early 2020.

JPMorgan, which was initially reluctant to increase its presence in Paris because of France’s labor laws, eventually made the city a key part of its post-Brexit footprint in continental Europe after the election of Emmanuel Macron in 2017. Dimon is handing Macron a triumph now as EU nations vie to take chunks of the financial center forced to shift post-Brexit from the U.K.

timetogo1

Strazdas wrote: »

The EU rollout was never a "disaster" or "shambles" as the UK press claimed. It was just a bit slow to get going in the January - February period. The significance of the EU-AZ contract row was hugely overstated by the Brexiteers. Yes, it was all a bit messy but only impacted on the EU rollout in a very modest way.

Plus if all of the 27 countries had taken the UKs approach where would we be now? I'd guess we'd be paying a lot more for the vaccines and countries that could afford more (or purchase more) would be doing so at the expense of countries that couldn't.
There probably would have been a lot more restrictions for vaccines leaving countries that they were made in too.
Working together has its benefits.

Tyrone212

Vaccines made in the EU were exported to the UK. UK signed a deal that they got first dibs on vaccines made in the UK. If the EU had of adopted a similar deal the UK would be screwed now. Back in April or May 20m of the adminstered vaccines in the UK came from the EU.

Also when reports of blood clots in AstraZeneca were first appearing in the news. The right wing press in the UK said it was the Europeans bitter about their success. Then months later their own medical watch group restricted AstraZeneca to under 30s then later under 40s while the EU health agency placed no such age restrictions and they shut up then. It was all a conspiracy against them up until then.

And then back in December "The education secretary, Gavin Williamson, has claimed the UK was the first country in the world to clinically approve a coronavirus vaccine because the country has “much better” scientists than France, Belgium or the US.

Williamson said he was not surprised the UK was the first to roll out the immunisation because “we’re a much better country than every single one of them”.

Asked whether Brexit was to credit for the world-first, Williamson told LBC radio station on Thursday: “Well I just reckon we’ve got the very best people in this country and we’ve obviously got the best medical regulators.


“Much better than the French have, much better than the Belgians have, much better than the Americans have. That doesn’t surprise me at all because we’re a much better country than every single one of them, aren’t we.”

Even though those vaccines were coming from Belgium having been made by Pfizer-BioNTech a German US team.

They've been so utterly childish and embarrassing throughout.

RobMc59

Strazdas wrote: »

The EU rollout was never a "disaster" or "shambles" as the UK press claimed. It was just a bit slow to get going in the January - February period. The significance of the EU-AZ contract row was hugely overstated by the Brexiteers. Yes, it was all a bit messy but only impacted on the EU rollout in a very modest way.

That's a strange statement considering the EU has done it's level best to punish AZ and failed to do so in a European court.
I have never thought brexit was a good idea,although I have noticed one or two things going in the UKs favour recently (obviously not reported and always waved away here).
More control of our fishing grounds which has stopped the indiscriminate over fishing by large commercial EU vessels,some of which have impacted on wildlife (puffin population)around Scotland for example,plus of course the quotas EU countries must return to the UK.
There is also the agreement on data which despite European hardliners campaigning against UK parity,the EU powers that be have agreed that UK data policy is acceptable.

Strazdas

RobMc59 wrote: »

That's a strange statement considering the EU has done it's level best to punish AZ and failed to do so in a European court.
I have never thought brexit was a good idea,although I have noticed one or two things going in the UKs favour recently (obviously not reported and always waved away here).
More control of our fishing grounds which has stopped the indiscriminate over fishing by large commercial EU vessels,some of which have impacted on wildlife (puffin population)around Scotland for example,plus of course the quotas EU countries must return to the UK.
There is also the agreement on data which despite European hardliners campaigning against UK parity,the EU powers that be have agreed that UK data policy is acceptable.

The EU got into a bad tempered row with AstraZeneca over contracts and deliveries. But the whole thing was hugely overstated and overreported by the English tabloids....it ended up having only a small effect on the EU rollout, as Pfizer dramatically upped its production.

But it became almost an urban myth with the Brexiteers that the EU vaccine rollout was a "disaster", "shambles", "total fiasco" etc. They were so anxious to frame it as Brexit UK getting one over on the EU that they ignored what was happening on the ground.

CelticRambler

There's more to the whole pandemic management situation than the number of (excess) deaths and/or percentages of different demographic groups who've been (fully) vaccinated. Right now, I have in my hand an EU Digital Covid Certificate, allowing me to travel relatively freely to 20 different European countries, with eight more "technically ready" to implement the protocol.

Brexit-Britain doesn't have that yet, with the resultant implications for economic recovery, and for all that negotiations on mutual recognition are taking place, it's symbolic of how everything the UK wants to do from now on will involve negotiations with the EU - because we (and our associates) surround them on three sides.

ambro25

RobMc59 wrote: »

That's a strange statement considering the EU has done it's level best to punish AZ and failed to do so in a European court.
I have never thought brexit was a good idea,although I have noticed one or two things going in the UKs favour recently (obviously not reported and always waved away here).
More control of our fishing grounds which has stopped the indiscriminate over fishing by large commercial EU vessels,some of which have impacted on wildlife (puffin population)around Scotland for example,plus of course the quotas EU countries must return to the UK.
There is also the agreement on data which despite European hardliners campaigning against UK parity,the EU powers that be have agreed that UK data policy is acceptable.

As I recall, the European (edit: Belgian) court found Astra Zeneca in (edit: grave) breach of contract, paving the way for the EU to initiate its claim for damages (which the EU has yet to do).

It certainly was *not* reported like that in the British media, as I distinctly recall the social media noises about its distorted reporting (solely focused on the minor heads of claim ‘wins’ by AZ, completely ignoring the significantly-larger heads of claim ‘wins’ by the EU), that was corrected post-haste (eg the FT, within hours).

That was only the other week.

Seth Brundle

mod: can we move on from the discussion on the pandemic vaccine rollout as it is unrelated to Brexit?

ClosedAccountFuzzy

The EU is a rules based organisation and contract law is very rigid in all circumstances. There are also substantial differences between how continental codified legal systems work Vs English Common Law.

However, there's nothing at all unusual to see those kinds of cases. Pharma companies, IT companies etc spend half their lives in court in all sorts of jurisdictions.

If you're a commercial supplier, don't bite off more than you can chew and then fail to deliver, or you'll end up in court. That's nothing at all unusual.

British tabloids just keep imagining battles, slights and punishments.

It just comes across a petty and insecure.

AstraZeneca is alao multinational company, a very large chunk of which is Swedish (the Astra part) and the EU invested significant money in the product early on too, with orders and historical support for the research institute involved.

Rule of thumb: ignore British tabloids.

fash

RobMc59 wrote: »

That's a strange statement considering the EU has done it's level best to punish AZ and failed to do so in a European court.
I have never thought brexit was a good idea,although I have noticed one or two things going in the UKs favour recently (obviously not reported and always waved away here).
More control of our fishing grounds which has stopped the indiscriminate over fishing by large commercial EU vessels,some of which have impacted on wildlife (puffin population)around Scotland for example,plus of course the quotas EU countries must return to the UK.
There is also the agreement on data which despite European hardliners campaigning against UK parity,the EU powers that be have agreed that UK data policy is acceptable.

Regarding fish: the major impact is that UK fishermen effectively cannot sell into the EU - that certainly makes for happy fish&puffins no doubt.
As regards data, EU not only has given adequacy decisions to I understand 12 other third countries, the UK is the only one with a 4 year "sunset" clause to check the UK is still abiding by the rules. Not only that but an adequacy decision benefits the EU because it keeps the UK tied into EU orbit. So not that much of a win for "brexit means brexit" Britain.

Strazdas

FuzzyThinking wrote: »

The EU is a rules based organisation and contract law is very rigid in all circumstances. There are also substantial differences between how continental codified legal systems work Vs English Common Law.

However, there's nothing at all unusual to see those kinds of cases. Pharma companies, IT companies etc spend half their lives in court in all sorts of jurisdictions.

If you're a commercial supplier, don't bite off more than you can chew and then fail to deliver, or you'll end up in court. That's nothing at all unusual.

British tabloids just keep imagining battles, slights and punishments.

It just comes across a petty and insecure.

AstraZeneca is alao multinational company, a very large chunk of which is Swedish (the Astra part) and the EU invested significant money in the product early on too, with orders and historical support for the research institute involved.

Rule of thumb: ignore British tabloids.

It's almost as if Brexit hasn't happened for the English tabloids. They want to continue their war against the union as if the UK is still a full member.

It's very peculiar though and makes a bit of a mockery of their claim to be now 'free, sovereign and independent'. Do newly independent countries launch an ongoing hate campaign about the entity they have just left and blame them for just about everything?