Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

RobMc59 wrote: »

As time passes and the antics of johnson and co get more outrageous,extensions granted,brexit transition coming and going with no noticeable progress and not acted upon,anyone who had fleeting hopes it will work out in the end is bound to be dispondant when the EU enable the ERG and the rest of them.
Yes,I did try to give the government the benefit of the doubt in the beginning.

But Johnson et al antics are going to happen regardless. As proved by the fact they signed a deal, with great fanfare, and have spent practically every minute since (well since the election at least) complaining how terrible the deal is.

There is no point trying to find common ground with people like that. So the EU needs to look after its own interests, in the knowledge that no matter what it does it will be blamed in the UK. That battle is lost. As the UK are so oft to repeat, Brexit is done and time to move on.

So the EU look at the mess that Brexit has left behind and needs to try to minimise that mess. Giving a few more months to delay it costs the EU nothing. But it is yet more political capital used up by Johnson and Frost, yet more questions about 'oven ready deal', yet more questions about why Brexit is not having any positive effects.

Time is most definitely on the EU's side. Then longer they can keep the UK as close as possible the better chance there is, slight as it may be, that the UK will come to its senses without having to get into costly trade wars.

This is not a climbdown, or even a compromise, by the EU. The UK have agreed to stick to the deal, which they said is unworkable. Have agreed to work on changing supply models in NI to take account of the issues (read acceptance that there will now be permanent issues) with getting goods from GB. Agreed on implementing the NIP, including customs checks between GB and NI.

Sure, you can argue that they had all that back in December last year, and I would agree with you. But clearly the UK have no intention of walking away, they are looking for a way to implement this without losing all political capital and while it is not the EU business to help any political party, it is also not in the EU to see continued instability in one of their biggest trading partners and closest neighbours.

This buys (but at zero cost) the EU a further 3 months as well, it isn't just the UK.

Strazdas

A new opinion poll in NI says only 6% of people there trust the British Government with the Protocol (with 86% distrusting them).

That's very encouraging : suggests the lies and propaganda of the English press is not feeding through to the province and people don't believe Johnson or Frost are acting in good faith.

Peregrinus

RobMc59 wrote: »

As time passes and the antics of johnson and co get more outrageous,extensions granted,brexit transition coming and going with no noticeable progress and not acted upon,anyone who had fleeting hopes it will work out in the end is bound to be dispondant when the EU enable the ERG and the rest of them.
Yes,I did try to give the government the benefit of the doubt in the beginning.

The EU is not coming to save you here, Rob. It is absolutely none of their business who governs Britain. It was none of their business even when the UK was a Member State, and it is doubly none of their business now. The EU decisions about how to handle the Brexit process will not be affected, in the smallest degree, by considerations like this. Nor should they be. And if people in the UK feel "despondent" about this it just points, once again, to one of the causes of Brexit - widespread ignorance in the UK about what the EU is and what it does.

UK citizens put the current British government in office. It's up to them to remove it, if that's what they want.

FrancieBrady

Peregrinus wrote: »

The EU is not coming to save you here, Rob. It is absolutely none of their business who governs Britain. It was none of their business even when the UK was a Member State, and it is doubly none of their business now. The EU decisions about how to handle the Brexit process will not be affected, in the smallest degree, by considerations like this. Nor should they be. And if people in the UK feel "despondent" about this it just points, once again, to one of the causes of Brexit - widespread ignorance in the UK about what the EU is and what it does.

UK citizens put the current British government in office. It's up to them to remove it, if that's what they want.

There aren't a lot on these forums who say they are British or identify as British but most of them I have read state that they were anti Brexit but ardently defend what the British government has done since it.

That seems farcical to me. To turn around then and blame the EU for not getting rid of the Brexiters on their behalf is just fabulous.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There aren't a lot on these forums who say they are British or identify as British but most of them I have read state that they were anti Brexit but ardently defend what the British government has done since it.

That seems farcical to me. To turn around then and blame the EU for not getting rid of the Brexiters on their behalf is just fabulous.

It is not for me to impugn the honesty of any Boardie, and certainly not of Rob. But I do note that people who claim to have voted Remain but now to support Brexit, or to support the government's Brexit, are often unable, when asked, to articulate clearly why they supported Remain in the first place or what caused them to change their minds. They are, however, eloquent when invited to explain why they dislike the EU, or its stance with respect to Brexit.

I cannot avoid the unworthy suspicion that some of them may in fact be telling naughty fibs when they claim to have been Remain voters.

opinionated3

Substantial boost for the brexiteers today with Nissan's announcement of battery development expansion in Sunderland. Potential for 6200 direct and indirect jobs created. Prepare for a deluge of "we told you so" on sky news, daily mail etc.

CelticRambler

opinionated3 wrote: »

Substantial boost for the brexiteers today with Nissan's announcement of battery development expansion in Sunderland. Potential for 6200 direct and indirect jobs created.

That's an awful lot of jobs tied to one employer. Better hope EV sales meet expectations in the future.

I wonder how much the government has put into this. Don't think we ever heard the full details of their deal with Nissan, did we?

Peregrinus

opinionated3 wrote: »

Substantial boost for the brexiteers today with Nissan's announcement of battery development expansion in Sunderland. Potential for 6200 direct and indirect jobs created. Prepare for a deluge of "we told you so" on sky news, daily mail etc.

Worth pointing out, though, that it raises the stakes for the hard Brexiters. This plant is being put in place so that UK-manufactured EVs can meet local content requirements, and so be exported tariff-free to the EU under the TCA. If the UK provokes a trade war with the EU, this plant will rapidly become a white elephant, and will be mothballed or will close.

ambro25

opinionated3 wrote: »

Substantial boost for the brexiteers today with Nissan's announcement of battery development expansion in Sunderland. Potential for 6200 direct and indirect jobs created. Prepare for a deluge of "we told you so" on sky news, daily mail etc.

Let them.

It’s them and their descendance, whom the UK government is putting in ever more hock to buy that FDI and those jobs, not us.

And the commercial case for it hinges on a close-enough relationship.

[Madagascar penguins]…just smile and wave, boys, just smile and wave…[/movie reference]

ancapailldorcha

opinionated3 wrote: »

Substantial boost for the brexiteers today with Nissan's announcement of battery development expansion in Sunderland. Potential for 6200 direct and indirect jobs created. Prepare for a deluge of "we told you so" on sky news, daily mail etc.

It isn't really though. Brexit was never about jobs. That was just rhetoric to cover up the fact that few people in general had any real knowledge of the EU or the UK's place within it.

opinionated3

CelticRambler wrote: »

That's an awful lot of jobs tied to one employer. Better hope EV sales meet expectations in the future.

I wonder how much the government has put into this. Don't think we ever heard the full details of their deal with Nissan, did we?

Sky reporting a significant amount of British government financial aid.......

Nody

opinionated3 wrote: »

Sky reporting a significant amount of British government financial aid.......

Was about to post this; which also may fall foul under the state aid clauses of WTO and the EU deal...

schmoo2k

It is worth noting the EU offered for the UK to extend the grace period indefinitely as long as it adhered to SPS rules and could withdraw as soon as it was ready or whenever they wanted to.

The UK refused this offer and instead "haggled" for a fixed 3 month fixed extension, talk about doing things the hard way.

KildareP

schmoo2k wrote: »

It is worth noting the EU offered for the UK to extend the grace period indefinitely as long as it adhered to SPS rules and could withdraw as soon as it was ready or whenever they wanted to.

The UK refused this offer and instead "haggled" for a fixed 3 month fixed extension, talk about doing things the hard way.

Much easier to feign putting the proverbial backs of the EU against the wall and then proclaiming a win with a short extension, than an indefinite extension where the ball is firmly in your court.


In a totally unsurprising and much expected move, the Daily Express are reporting this short extension as the EU backing down... :rolleyes:

Capt'n Midnight

opinionated3 wrote: »

Substantial boost for the brexiteers today with Nissan's announcement of battery development expansion in Sunderland. Potential for 6200 direct and indirect jobs created. Prepare for a deluge of "we told you so" on sky news, daily mail etc.

Only 909 direct jobs. 4,500 are in the 'UK' supply chain - which need not be in the UK

Edit - not sure if the 750 new jobs in Envision's new battery gigafactory are included in the above.



New UK laws to sweep away EU state aid rules - why does this scream chumocracy ?

The UK High Street continues to take a battering as Gap are closing stores and going on line because of competition from the likes of Primark who I would have thought to be in a different market segment but what do I know.

CelticRambler

CelticRambler wrote: »

That's an awful lot of jobs tied to one employer. Better hope EV sales meet expectations in the future.

I wonder how much the government has put into this. Don't think we ever heard the full details of their deal with Nissan, did we?

There is no doubt the demand will be there as ICE vehicles will soon be killed off ( within 15 years).


Quite possibly there is some government money in there, UK have already announced changes in the rules around subsidies.

correct horse battery staple

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Gonna make a prediction right now, ice cars will not be killed off (I have a hybrid so seen light) in uk

Because the issue will be made part of the culture war of which Brexit is just the first battle

Tabloids will spend next 15 years moaning about pinko lefties hiding under the green banner coming to take their god given right to pollute, hell Great Britain was made great one smokestack at a time!!

Anyways Brexiteers and Tories have made plenty of promises before only to break them, hell was it not thatcher who started rallying against state aid in first place?

I don't agree, the UK has more to gain by going green, nothing to do with EU or their laws, it will be down to greater energy independence.

Kermit.de.frog

opinionated3 wrote: »

Substantial boost for the brexiteers today with Nissan's announcement of battery development expansion in Sunderland. Potential for 6200 direct and indirect jobs created. Prepare for a deluge of "we told you so" on sky news, daily mail etc.

Well, the other side were not shy with endless scaremongering.

The UK will be absolutely fine and well able to prosper on it's own outside the EU.

The remainers know that full well but won't acknowledge it.

The UK has the tools we don't have to manage it's affairs and competitive position as it sees fit.

timetogo1

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't agree, the UK has more to gain by going green, nothing to do with EU or their laws, it will be down to greater energy independence.

With the UK is going these days it depends on if there are more Tory donors in the fossil fuel sector or green energy sector.
Sense and benefits to the country don't really come into it.

opinionated3

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Well, the other side were not shy with endless scaremongering.

The UK will be absolutely fine and well able to prosper on it's own outside the EU.

The remainers know that full well but won't acknowledge it.

The UK has the tools we don't have to manage it's affairs and competitive position as it sees fit.

Don't agree with you. I think we are only at the beginning of this storm. The farmers are in trouble already. Time will tell, but I don't believe the UK will be better off outside of Europe rather than in it.

ancapailldorcha

timetogo1 wrote: »

With the UK is going these days it depends on if there are more Tory donors in the fossil fuel sector or green energy sector.
Sense and benefits to the country don't really come into it.

In fairness, I don't think that they're that detached from reality. They've banned new fossil fuelled cars from 2030 if I recall correctly and do seem to be taking climate change at least somewhat seriously.

timetogo1

timetogo1 wrote: »

With the UK is going these days it depends on if there are more Tory donors in the fossil fuel sector or green energy sector.
Sense and benefits to the country don't really come into it.

Donors are getting out of FF, so I don't believe they'll have that sway in the future.

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

There is no doubt the demand will be there as ICE vehicles will soon be killed off ( within 15 years).

That may be, but there's an inherent problem with EVs for non-urban driving: electricity is just not sufficiently storable and portable, so as long as there are people living in and/or travelling independently across non-urban landscapes, there'll be a constant pressure to invent some other more useful zero-emissions fuel source. If/when that becomes available, it'll put the current battery-dependent EV paradigm under huge pressure.

For Brexiters to put a lot of eggs in that particular basket is quite a gamble ... but then again, that seems to be the Brexit modus operandi: all in, on weak hand.

storker

If the Act of Union is repealed does that make Northern Ireland an independent state that can apply for EU membership independently of the UK?

ancapailldorcha

storker wrote: »

If the Act of Union is repealed does that make Northern Ireland an independent state that can apply for EU membership independently of the UK?

It's only been partly repealed as I understand it.

BonnieSituation

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Well, the other side were not shy with endless scaremongering.

The UK will be absolutely fine and well able to prosper on it's own outside the EU.

The remainers know that full well but won't acknowledge it.

The UK has the tools we don't have to manage it's affairs and competitive position as it sees fit.

What are these tools that they have that we don't have?

storker

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's only been partly repealed as I understand it.

Ah, in a "very specific and limited way"?

Sam Russell

storker wrote: »

If the Act of Union is repealed does that make Northern Ireland an independent state that can apply for EU membership independently of the UK?

No, it is superseded, where applicable, by the Good Friday Agreement, and related statutes.

NI remains part of the UK until a border poll, held jointly with Ireland, agrees to a United Ireland. Such poll to be conducted at the behest by the SoS for NI in his sole opinion that it will be carried by a majority in NI.

No other option is currently available.

Winters

In a keynote speech on his first day as leader of the party, Mr Donaldson said: "The Irish Sea Border is not just a threat to the economic integrity of the United Kingdom, it is a threat to the living standards of the people of Northern Ireland and the constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom," he said.

DUP still not equating the NIP with Brexit.

Mr Donaldson said the Irish Government "could not have its cake and eat it" in respect of its position on the Northern Ireland Protocol.

#facepalm

https://www.rte.ie/news/ulster/2021/0701/1232362-alex-easton-dup/

20silkcut

I suppose this extension blows the EU punishing the U.K. theory out of the water .