Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

I agree that there will be some wages inflation, and we have already seen some evidence with some drivers being given bonus to stay on etc, that the lack of EU workers will lead to a short-term advantage for those already in the industry.

But I don't see that as sustainable. Not without price rises for consumers, so everybody ends up losing out and only a very small minority do slightly better (sums up Brexit I suppose!).

UK hauliers are also international companies, but EU countries are not going to accept paying higher prices for haulage when they can source distribution for other areas within the EU. So the larger UK companies will see a drop off in trade, leading to reduction in drivers and downward pressure on wages.

And they haven't even faced the full issue yet as checks are not being undertaken by the UK customs, that will add even more delays, and thus costs.

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117776912#Comment_117776912

What you described previously will put farmers and businesses out of business resulting in an absolute fire sale off assets. Asset stripping , which ultimately is all brexit was about. Select few individuals making absolute hay. Only for covid came along and accelerated the gold rush with Tory partners.

Anyone who thinks putting businesses to the wall in tourist areas as some sort of reference to slavery is a foolish and hasn't thought the argument out fully.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117776912#Comment_117776912

I think talk of low cost imported skilled (or unskilled) labour is greatly exaggerated. Such arrangements go on in virtually every developed economy - migrants will invariably be willing to work for lower wages in return for guaranteed employment and a roof over their head. The Brexit brigade speak of this as some sort of aberration that needs to be stamped out, but it's just normal labour market forces at play.

swampgas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117777753#Comment_117777753

I agree that there are indeed disaster capitalists making hay with Brexit, wasn't it Rees-Mogg's father who practically wrote a manual for it. Nor am I advocating an abrupt change that would not give businesses time to react. It's also true that skilled people from one country often migrate to a wealthier one for for work. Estonian doctors move to Finland for better pay, while the Finnish doctors move to Sweden.

Yet it's curious that so many businesses seem to be vulnerable to being cut off from cheap foreign labour. In the past there might have been more internal migrant labour, for example workers in the east end of London used to go to Kent for their holidays and they picked hops while they were at it to make a few bob.

The reference to slavery I think valid: employers will always look for the cheapest possible option, and scream blue murder when labour costs rise. Only the law and trade unions have protected (to some extent) the poorest and least educated from total exploitation. The advent of the so-called gig economy and zero hour contracts is another sign that the balance of power between employer and worker is swinging away from those least able to protect themselves.

I'm not exactly writing a manifesto for shutting down business, but I think the impact of the restrictions on foreign labour shines a light on some very questionable practices that only seem okay because they are normalised and because they only affect foreigners. If Irish labourers were being exploited in the same way perhaps it wouldn't seem such a foolish concern?

swampgas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117777806#Comment_117777806

Perhaps, I'm just not so willing to accept that it's simply "normal market forces at play". Market forces, unregulated, lead to sweatshops and worker exploitation. That the Brexiteers have accidentally given some of the poorer workers in the UK some extra leverage to get better pay and conditions is what the Tories will see as an aberration to be stamped out, and I'm sure they will find a way to do so unrestricted by any pesky EU rules.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117778236#Comment_117778236

But Irish people when they first emigrated in the past would have faced the exact same challenges - doing manual labour for lower pay (but still being grateful for a paying job and a roof over their head). I think a lot of the debate around workers rights and pay and conditions has been cynically hijacked by the Brexiteers - I've seen some people claiming they voted Leave in order to stop EU migrant workers being exploited (disingenuous nonsense of course).

Nobody wants to see any worker being exploited or being underpaid, but a lot of this is a separate discussion to Brexit - most of it could easily have been addressed by the UK government without Britain having to leave the EU.

Cookie_Monster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117776605#Comment_117776605

NZ sort of has with its closed borders due to Covid. It has not worked out well either.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117776651#Comment_117776651

It reminds me the import substitution policy that Argentina applied by populous demand,

"Import substitution industrialization (ISI) is a trade and economic policy that advocates replacing foreign imports with domestic production. It is based on the premise that a country should attempt to reduce its foreign dependency through the local production of industrialized products."

In the UKs case it's actual workers needed to keep an aging society competitive. Ultimately the policies failed in Argentina as the economy of scale over time made those items protected from imports so expensive that they simply couldn't survive on domestic demand. Plus the countries whose protects faced these protectionist policies in turn applied extra tariffs on Argentinian exports, so overall Argentina followed a long slow path from being one of the richest countries in the world to where it is now.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117780716#Comment_117780716

And it seems crazy to even attempt this in the era of the global economy and the internet. Imagine putting up hard borders around a developed country at a time of such interconnectedness.

schmoo2k

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117779693#Comment_117779693

Where does the 200GBP figure come from?

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117781231#Comment_117781231

Uhh.. .any news source that links to anti-vax nutter Sharyl Atkinsson is VERY suspicious. What kind of name is 'today headline' anyway? And, 'about us' times out.

Not denying their point, but I'd pass on reposting from them.

schmoo2k

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117781231#Comment_117781231

Makes no sense, you import a 100GBP Widget from China into the UK and sell the NL for 100GBP and it gets booked as a 200GBP Export - I see why you say its dodgy!!! Need to divide all those figures by 2

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117781231#Comment_117781231

Pretty much. Various Europeans I work with have Brexited. It's by no means a flood but there's a steady trickle. A few whole groups have gone as well. I spent a few weeks deliberating over whether or not to apply for a job in Flanders. Did it and got rejected two days later but the shine of staying here has certainly gone. As a monoglot, I don't think my options are great on the continent but there are various English-speaking roles in labs I've found, particularly in places like Baden-Wurttemberg. I applied for a different job in The Hague to no avail so, yeah I'd agree that there's going to be a somewhat slow exodus of people. Not overnight or even in a year or two but if things stay the way they are with the nation being governed by English Nationalists then I see a lot of people leaving here.

VillageIdiot71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117761845#Comment_117761845

There seems to be quite a lot going on in those figures. We seem to have sharp increase in imports (€2.4 billion or 40% more than last year), and increases in exports of some stuff that I wouldn't automatically associate with us, like Machinery and transport equipment.

I don't have a particular explanation for this. Are there manufacturers of machinery and transport equipment here, experiencing some sudden boom in production along with manufacturers of Professional, scientific and controlling apparatus?

And I similarly can't understand this pairing, from the CSO release. "Exports of Organic chemicals decreased by €762 million (-31%) to €1,712 million.

.... Imports of Organic chemicals increased by €1,249 million (+202%) to €1,866 million in June 2021 compared with June 2020."

Why did we suddenly need an extra €1 billions worth of Organic Chemicals? What are we doing with them? Making emergency supplies of Nando sauce for export to UK?

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117782076#Comment_117782076

Same exact article. Same aggregator I think with different filters so we get more 'economically inclined' articles from 'the london economic' and less, well, screaming clickbait from 'todayheadline.'

But, thanks for the pointer to the original study.

Mefistofelino

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117781349#Comment_117781349

As a business, you wouldn't be selling on the widget at cost. The £200 is probably cost of goods plus mark up.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Off topic posts removed.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117781421#Comment_117781421

Hand sanitiser and other cleaning products ?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117781421#Comment_117781421

Chemicals could be to do with pharmaceutical companies and covid responses. It’s likely there were some major ramping up / changing of products and even domestic demand for things like PCR testing media was enormous.

Sam Russell

Inflation is noticeably greater. Supermarkets are raising prices - Tesco in particular. Car prices have risen, both new and second hand. The new prices are probably driven by the PCP craze, and the need for the suppliers to offer zero interest (who pays for all that?).

UK firms have yet to come to grips with VAT (zero for exports) and Irish firms are slow to divert to Euro suppliers. Amazon have yet to open their Irish hub. Euro suppliers have yet to seize the opportunities that Brexit offers in the Irish market.

We are only in month eight of this. More time to allow things to settle. Mogg's 50 years is way away.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117787270#Comment_117787270

Interesting, is there a similar set of data for 2021 vs. 2019? 2020 was an anomaly because of Brexit. So much of the economy was in mothballs.

Cookie_Monster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117787672#Comment_117787672

I assume you mean covid?, blaming brexit for brexit related messes seems reasonable after all.

Igotadose

My bad, yes, Covid, not Brexit. Thanks for the links to the earlier data.

Leroy42

The big issue is that the UK seem to have no plan to deal with the issues.

I have no doubt that, eventually, a workaround will be found, a solution will be delivered despite the costs. But if you are in the UK, the worrying aspect is just how little in control of events the government are.

They are forced to react to one crisis after another. It was fishermen, then musicians, now its hauliers. But each time it seems like a complete surprise, followed by denial and downplay, before eventually something is done to reduce the negative impact but still leave it far worse than before.

I have no doubt it will keep happening as clearly they haven't thought this through.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117789141#Comment_117789141

This seems to tie in with Johnson's chaotic leadership. Cummings says Johnson changes his mind twenty times a day and doesn't have a plan for anything - he's a reactor and is no visionary.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117789178#Comment_117789178

While I'm no fan of either man, Cummings has to be the single worst source imaginable. Doesn't mean he's wrong of course but all he's ever been interested in is creating chaos for its own sake.

The plan, so far as one exists is and always has been to kick the can and postpone today's crisis until tomorrow and then repeat the process. It's inevitable when you inflict this level of damage on a country in the modern world for no reason.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117789276#Comment_117789276

Johnson doesn't seem to have much in the way of leadership ability. Carried on being a journalist for most of his time as a MP and seemingly was missing from the House of Commons for much of the time. Seems to be an idler mainly, who just fancied the title of being Tory leader and PM.

Leroy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117789276#Comment_117789276

True about Cummings, if we had no evidence about Johnson.

But the clear evidence is that Johnson doesn't have a plan. He clearly only signed the deal with the Election in mind, and hoped that he could weasel out of any commitments after.

His handling of covid has been one u-turn after another (although I hold him less accountable for this as Covid is not as easy to plan for).

Also his handling of Afghanistan leaves alot to be desired.

So the weight of evidence would seem to support Cummings in this instance.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117789446#Comment_117789446

Johnson isn't there to provide leadership. He's there because of his own ambitions and because he can win elections. The second he loses, he's gone. He won't be doing 5 years as leader of the opposition, that's for sure. It's like when military leadership were drawn exclusively from royalty and the nobility. Great if they can do the job and win but it's not a prerequisite.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117789658#Comment_117789658

True but again, much of it is hearsay from a bitter former advisor. It comes across as very petty politics and the country should have better than this.

It’s deeply disappointing to feel that you can no longer assume that U.K. official figures are presented transparently, without spin or political angles being applied. It’s not something I would ever have seen coming, but here we are! Venerable, highly reputable administrative systems are seemingly being reduced to organs of an administration that only understands spin.