Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Hurrache

Hurrache wrote: »

Apart from this being basically all meaningless slogans, but it's absolutely hysterical that they're rushing to get back into trading block, a union if you will, on the other side of the world and this being the day that many are celebrating the anniversary of leaving the EU.

There is a subtle difference between a trading bloc and a Political Union.
The EU is a Political Union that is also a trading bloc, the UK no longer wanted to be part of a political union.

This is solely a trading bloc. Biggest danger I see is that increasing their dependence on China would be bad for UK industry.

ArmaniJeanss

Hurrache wrote: »

Apart from this being basically all meaningless slogans, but it's absolutely hysterical that they're rushing to get back into trading block, a union if you will, on the other side of the world and this being the day that many are celebrating the anniversary of leaving the EU.
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1356203381862375431

"I have just formally notified CPTPP nations of our intent to join" is a wonderful bit of English/Etonian phraseology.

You applied to join, and they've presumably accepted you.

sondagefaux

Hurrache wrote: »

Apart from this being basically all meaningless slogans, but it's absolutely hysterical that they're rushing to get back into trading block, a union if you will, on the other side of the world and this being the day that many are celebrating the anniversary of leaving the EU.
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1356203381862375431

Project Meh on this one.

There are 11 countries in the CPTPP trade agreement:
Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam.

Of these 11, the EU has trade agreements with 7 (Canada, Chile, Japan, Mexico, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam) and is negotiating trade agreements with 2 more, Australia and New Zealand.

It has suspended its negotiations with Malaysia because of a dispute over EU restrictions on Palm Oil.

Brunei has a population of about 435,000 people, less than the population of the city of Bristol.

This sounds good to the average punter; in reality, assuming the application is approved, it's a minor improvement on what the UK would have had as an EU member, bit will barely make a dent in the losses caused by Brexit.

BonnieSituation

sondagefaux wrote: »

No need, EU's all good.



https://www.thejournal.ie/biontech-pfizer-eu-75-million-vaccines-5341322-Feb2021/

That more than makes up for the shortfall in AstraZeneca vaccine doses.

The subtle hints from the EU Commission are bearing fruit rapidly.

Combined with the extra 9 million doses that'll be provided by AstraZeneca, the EU will receive 84 million more vaccine doses than it was going to get last week.

I was almost sure that the EU made a massive unforgivable mistake last week.

sondagefaux

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

"I have just formally notified CPTPP nations of our intent to join" is a wonderful bit of English/Etonian phraseology.

You applied to join, and they've presumably accepted you.

The acceptance procedure is likely to take two years according to Samuel Marc Lowe, a trade expert who posts on twitter.

BonnieSituation

View wrote: »

That’s correct. There was a huge reluctance by many businesses here to divert away from the U.K. and toward direct routes to/from the EU right up to and including the very last minute.The government should have been banging peoples’ heads about diverting away over the last few years.

To be fair, they couldn't send their goods on nonexistent ferries. Thankfully that's all been rectified.

Hurrache

Deleted User wrote: »

There is a subtle difference between a trading bloc and a Political Union.
The EU is a Political Union that is also a trading bloc, the UK no longer wanted to be part of a political union.

This is solely a trading bloc. Biggest danger I see is that increasing their dependence on China would be bad for UK industry.

Yeah, I'm aware of the differences between the two, and they're not subtle at all. Yet the UK weren't even willing to enter into a 'proper' trading bloc with the EU, they wanted to cut completely.

sondagefaux

Deleted User wrote: »

There is a subtle difference between a trading bloc and a Political Union.
The EU is a Political Union that is also a trading bloc, the UK no longer wanted to be part of a political union.

This is solely a trading bloc. Biggest danger I see is that increasing their dependence on China would be bad for UK industry.

China is not a CPTPP member.

BonnieSituation

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There is a subtle difference between a trading bloc and a Political Union.
The EU is a Political Union that is also a trading bloc, the UK no longer wanted to be part of a political union.

This is solely a trading bloc. Biggest danger I see is that increasing their dependence on China would be bad for UK industry.

Well they could have stayed in the CU and SM if that was the case. We both know that that wasn't the case.

CelticRambler

View wrote: »

Now, now, don’t be so negative.

Just think, when the U.K. will be “at the heart” of that FTA, all those Pacific rim countries will send their trade via the U.K. when they trade with each other in future. :-)

Makes perfect sense, when you look at the map of the world (the One True Map, that every Englishman grew up with on his or her wall; all others are distortions of reality :rolleyes: ):


The alternate reality:

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

There is a subtle difference between a trading bloc and a Political Union.
The EU is a Political Union that is also a trading bloc, the UK no longer wanted to be part of a political union.

This is solely a trading bloc. Biggest danger I see is that increasing their dependence on China would be bad for UK industry.

Yes, but you couldn't possibly join a trading bloc without losing sovereignty. How are the Brexiteers going to square that circle?

sondagefaux

sondagefaux wrote: »

China is not a CPTPP member.

China is still a huge player in the region, joining such a bloc can only increase their influence.

CelticRambler

CelticRambler wrote: »

The only reason "entire industries have had to think on their feet" is because they chose to believe the nonsense that Brexiter politicians spouted about frictionless borders and greatest trade deals ever. That has nothing to do with British public opinion and everything to do with Irish businesses/their owners being lazy.

Remember that, at one time, the rallying cry in England was "no deal is better than a bad deal." Well, no deal would have resulted in exactly the same challenges as hauliers are facing today. Subsequently, as the months passed, Johnson's Brexiter government repeatedly engaged in a ludicrous campaign of pretending that the EU would grant them the Greatest Trade Deal Ever (at the last minute, just wait for the blink, the EU always caves at the eleventh hour) but they were still prepared to walk away and go full WTO.

So there was no reason, none at all, for Irish business dependent on imports from or through the UK to suddenly find themselves needing to "think on their feet" in January 2021 and start looking for new routes to the Single Market. Just because the British media amplifies the lies and dissembling coming from the Johnson administration doesn't mean Irish voters should take it as Gospel, or make decisions about our relationship with, and role in, Europe based up on it.

The dairy industry in Ireland has had to pivot away from Cheddar. It hasn't done so since Jan 21 (my point had nothing to do with timeliness - but all to do with relevance), but has had to make wholesale investment into new products which would not have been necessary had the UK stayed in CU and SM.

If anyone hadn't been paying attention to UK politics and news media (which again was what I was addressing) - they may not seen the writing on the wall which the Chequers 'Address' spelled out for such markets.

Again I think you may be mis-reading my point, ignoring the toxic British Media because it is toxic does not make it go away, it also disables us, their nearest neighbours from being able to figure out what it is that is going on within their society at present. My point was that we do and should care about what is being discussed within UK, as the media circus there holds huge power of the people and shapes discussions and moods and temperaments to extraordinarily important things to Ireland!

My post (which you responded too) was suggesting that a glib "who cares" approach is fundamentally wrong.

dogbert27

UK: We are notifying you of our intention to join

CPTPP: Cheers but we're grand thanks. Don't need you coming in reminding every one of how they were once under your rule every time there's a disagreement. This is the 21st century, time to catch up.

sondagefaux

Deleted User wrote: »

China is still a huge player in the region, joining such a bloc can only increase their influence.

Japan isn't going to allow it to join while Xi is in charge of China...

Last Updated: January 04, 2021 14:27 IST
Japanese PM says China won't be able to join Trans-Pacific Partnership under Xi Jinping
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga on Sunday said that China may never be able to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), not until it has current regime.

https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/japanese-pm-says-china-wont-be-able-to-join-trans-pacific-partnership-under-xi-jinping.html

Hurrache

Deleted User wrote: »

China is still a huge player in the region, joining such a bloc can only increase their influence.

I think I read somewhere yesterday that they'd look for a veto when it comes to China wanting to join that block, but other members obviously not enamoured to any conditional demands from the UK.

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

The dairy industry in Ireland has had to pivot away from Cheddar. It hasn't done so since Jan 21 (my point had nothing to do with timeliness - but all to do with relevance), but has had to make wholesale investment into new products which would not have been necessary had the UK stayed in CU and SM.

If anyone hadn't been paying attention to UK politics and news media (which again was what I was addressing) - they may not seen the writing on the wall which the Chequers 'Address' spelled out for such markets.

But if your point has nothing to do with timeliness, then the reference to "thinking on their feet" is nothing more than good business practice, i.e. to be always vigilant, always aware of geo-political changes that might create barriers or opportunities, and entirely independent of the latest tabloid rant-of-the-week.

It's entirely possible to pay attention to UK politics without being sucked into it - being an observer from the sidelines is what happens here on the Continent (Michel Barnier and Guy Verhofstat are renowned for making comments about what's being said in the British media).

CelticRambler

CelticRambler wrote: »

But if your point has nothing to do with timeliness, then the reference to "thinking on their feet" is nothing more than good business practice, i.e. to be always vigilant, always aware of geo-political changes that might create barriers or opportunities, and entirely independent of the latest tabloid rant-of-the-week.

It's entirely possible to pay attention to UK politics without being sucked into it - being an observer from the sidelines is what happens here on the Continent (Michel Barnier and Guy Verhofstat are renowned for making comments about what's being said in the British media).

If I'm at the head of a plant which had to completely restructure their product and supply chains due in part to the influence and impact the UK media has had - I'm pretty confident "I Care".

Again, 'Who Cares?' is a glib soundbite which is effectively an "ignorance is bliss" approach. The reality is we do care.

CelticRambler

BonnieSituation wrote: »

To be fair, they couldn't send their goods on nonexistent ferries. Thankfully that's all been rectified.

All the ferries currently transporting freight directly to/from the continent existed a month ago! The only thing that's changed is that there's now a hugely increased demand for direct sailings - something that Irish hauliers/logistics firms could have created a year ago - so boats have been reassigned to the new routes.

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

If I'm at the head of a plant which had to completely restructure their product and supply chains due in part to the influence and impact the UK media has had - I'm pretty confident "I Care".

Brexit was not driven by the UK media - it was a bloodless coup led by the unelected Nigel Farage and his band of merry Brexiteers, with moral support from the loopy wing of the Tory party, funded by funny money from parties and persons with a decidedly Russian accent, all carried out in a country with a dodgy electoral system that allows for minority rule.

Any business that bases its operation on trade with such an unstable state should be prepared to change fairly quickly; but in this case, there was plenty of warning of what was coming - the Irish diplomatic corps got into gear on the subject back in 2015.

So yes, by all means keep an eye on the press, but public opinion can be swayed overnight, and back again the following week. It's fundamental politics that really counts.

Lemming

sondagefaux wrote: »

The acceptance procedure is likely to take two years according to Samuel Marc Lowe, a trade expert who posts on twitter.

And of course that's two years AND then the rest, allowing for businesses to begin to try and establish markets, relationships and supply chains - all of which take years in of themselves. Anyone thinking it'll be a case of '0 - 60' in economic activity as soon as (if?) any agreement is made, is sadly mistaken.

Hurrache

Brexit was also driven by the UK media, and still is.

Lemming

CelticRambler wrote: »

Brexit was not driven by the UK media - it was a bloodless coup led by the unelected Nigel Farage and his band of merry Brexiteers, with moral support from the loopy wing of the Tory party, funded by funny money from parties and persons with a decidedly Russian accent, all carried out in a country with a dodgy electoral system that allows for minority rule.

I wouldn't quite agree with that assessment CR, if not the sentiment. Farage only gained traction because he was continually pushed in front of people because he was the [certain parts of] media's darling. Controversy, crude insults and outrage are all cheap & easy sells from the view point of tabloids after all.

liamog

CelticRambler wrote: »

Brexit was not driven by the UK media - it was a bloodless coup led by the unelected Nigel Farage and his band of merry Brexiteers, with moral support from the loopy wing of the Tory party, funded by funny money from parties and persons with a decidedly Russian accent, all carried out in a country with a dodgy electoral system that allows for minority rule.

Liverpool was notably more pro-remain than other similar areas of the UK, researches at the London School of Economics believe that the post Hillsborough boycott of The Sun played a big part and is a reason Liverpool is less Eurosceptic.

An Ciarraioch

Immediate Brexit consequences in NI, as Alliance gain, and unionists desert the DUP for Jim Allister's TUV:

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1356155715619069953

The Raging Bile Duct

liamog wrote: »

Liverpool was notably more pro-remain than other similar areas of the UK, researches at the London School of Economics believe that the post Hillsborough boycott of The Sun played a big part and is a reason Liverpool is less Eurosceptic.

Manchester, just down the road, voted remain by a larger margin and it had no boycott of the Sun.

sondagefaux

Hurrache wrote: »

I think I read somewhere yesterday that they'd look for a veto when it comes to China wanting to join that block, but other members obviously not enamoured to any conditional demands from the UK.

The Japanese PM has already said Japan will veto any Chinese application as long as Xi's regime governs China.

https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/japanese-pm-says-china-wont-be-able-to-join-trans-pacific-partnership-under-xi-jinping.html

sondagefaux

Lemming wrote: »

And of course that's two years AND then the rest, allowing for businesses to begin to try and establish markets, relationships and supply chains - all of which take years in of themselves. Anyone thinking it'll be a case of '0 - 60' in economic activity as soon as (if?) any agreement is made, is sadly mistaken.

The UK government forsees an eventual boost to GDP of 0.2%, compared to the UK's economy being at least 4% smaller than if it had stayed in the EU.

The analysis doesn't take into account the trade deals that the UK would have had with 7 out of the 11 CCTPP countries if it had stayed in the EU.

In reality, the gain will be closer to 0.1% of GDP, nowhere near enough to offset the lower growth of at least 4% caused by Brexit.

BonnieSituation

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Immediate Brexit consequences in NI, as Alliance gain, and unionists desert the DUP for Jim Allister's TUV:

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1356155715619069953

Unionist leaders will see this and think the solution is to go more to the right and get more anti-Taigy.

Honestly, if you think the solution to your problems is the likes of Joleen Bunting and the TUV then perhaps you should re-evaluate what the root causes are.

hotmail.com

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Immediate Brexit consequences in NI, as Alliance gain, and unionists desert the DUP for Jim Allister's TUV:

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1356155715619069953

No bump for the UUP given they have the Health portfolio.

It looks like Nationalists going to Alliance and Unionists going to TUV.

Surely it's time for Sinn Fein and the SDLP to merge.