Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121345#Comment_118121345

It means Ireland gets flooded with whatever substandard rubbish the UK signs to to or lowers their standards to, increases smuggling & damages the reputation of Irish agriculture.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121372#Comment_118121372

Ignorance is not a defence in law- why should it be a defence for those who voted leave? You can say that their culpability is less than those who led it, but culpable they are.

listermint

Completely anecdotal in many ways. But an extremely telling and noticeable sway in public opinion up north. Particularly with recent events. The DUP and other unionists have lost the room . The Tories have lost the town.

https://mobile.twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1456358162706096131

fash

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1456520115814535186?s=20

Looks like things are going to kick off.

Personally I would expect that the UK will absorb more punishment than the more optimistic assessments here - I could see them keeping this up for a few months.

Leroy42

Absorb punishment for a while?

They have shown scant regard for the costs and losses up to now. Brexit is now so deep that the only real option is to keep going.

They know, some at least, of the consequences of triggering A16 but politically feel its worth it.

Being seen to accept defeat would not be good and so will be avoided at all costs.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121519#Comment_118121519

Throughout this process they have regularly accepted defeat, and trumpeted it as victory, and their supporters believe (or pretend to believe) this.

That's how this will most likely end.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121547#Comment_118121547

I have difficulty seeing how "Houdini" Johnson can get out of this one without going the "tear up the NIP" route at least for a while. They've been building it up too much & there are a lot of crazies who will be unhappy without the "satisfaction" of the invoking A16 (& fully tearing up the NIP). Plus it means he has to live with the consequences of his deal.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121388#Comment_118121388

In reality though it was never easy to do as seen from the cut down on off licences in Ireland trying to resell booze bought in NI when GBP devalued after the Brexit vote. In reality the only place you could pass on dodgy goods is in one of those car boot venues along containers of knockoffs clothes. Actually I wonder how the traders there are doing since January as Britain was the entreport into the EU for dodgy threads.

joeguevara

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121391#Comment_118121391

Because they didn’t vote to leave based on the correct information. It wasn’t simply political spin, it was a formulated targeted campaign that was a carefully orchestrated one that flowed from the media spinning lies, constant bombardment from social media bots and platforms, dedicated tv channels promulgating dangerous lies, and elected leaders not just bending the truth, or leaving out things etc but barefaced lying to the electorate about everything,

This could lead to an actual belief I have that democracy is a flawed concept because you are allowing morons and cretins decide the future of a country. I wouldn’t allow the vast majority of people choose what I had to eat for lunch never mind who leads the country. But that’s neither here nor there and irrelevant to this.

While the Great British public may not know the exact names of the Nolan Principles and Ministerial Code, they expect their leaders to abide by it. It used to be that when the Ministerial Code was broken, the. Perpetrator had to resign. And that was what in some sense gave security to the voters that what was said was truthful and if any inadvertent mistake was made it was corrected at the first available opportunity. Indeed they saw it work in practice with the resignation of Amber Rudd after misleading a select committee.

if an entire system is based on that (although a voluntary one) and while you expect some embellishments, if an entire government actually manufactures lies wholeheartedly on things like immigration, how the EU is costing the NHS £350 million a week, how all the fish will be British again, that costs of everything will plummet because Of zero tariffs etc etc.

And when a National Newspaper spreads downright abhorrent lies to manufacture the EU as lies without any retribution or sanctions, then of course they will be believed. Here is a list of every boogie monster anti EU headline over the past 20 years, https://youtu.be/tBJ2dLVBch4. I know some people will say that it’s only thr Daily Mail and can’t be believed but The Daily Mail has been awarded the National Newspaper of the Year in 1995, 1996, 1998, 2001, 2003, 2011, 2016 and 2019 by the British Press Awards. That is the highest accolade that can be given to a newspaper so of course it’s readership is going to believe what’s spouted,

Jaysus that’s some rant, but I have been thinking about it for a while. Britain’s vote to leave the EU is probably the most self destructive,, catastrophic, third world creating, ca5trating whatever other hyberbole you want thing any country has don’t to itself in history. Even after the vote to leave was clear to be akin to imposing sanctions on itself, the leadership didn’t go down any avenue that would mitigate it and the NIP is the last hurrah before death. But again, If an elected government, with the media, the press, and other investors in hedge funds are allowed to go unfettered without any form of sanction or dismissal then I cannot blame the conned.

The Russian influence on the outcome of this election cannot be discounted. Quite well summed up here https://youtu.be/jZYR7n2gpOU Equally the source of the DUP Brexit funding and how it was spent is another example of voter manipulation, quite well documented here https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/revealed-dirty-secrets-of-dup-s-dark-money-brexit-donor/ I have checked the legitimacy and it’s rated as highly factualhttps://www.google.com/amp/s/mediabiasfactcheck.com/opendemocracy/%3Famp%3D1

Couple the dubious sources of the funding and what the donors agenda with the fact that the DUP and illegal cash, were then brought over to England (where they have no candidates) purely to get around political advertising limits after the Tories had spent theirs. So in the final number of days, lavish editorials and 4 page spreads, funded by criminals money were directed by the DUP in a country it had no skin in the game. And not one judicial review or something similar was brought to delay the vote when it was clear that what the Brexit campaign was based on and lies and criminal behaviour, driveninto less intelligent xenophobic morons (who funnily enough amount to 52% of the electorate and you know how low their intellect must be when Rhys Moggs convinced them that he was a man of the people on their side and not one of the social intellectual elite.) powered by a media campaign that was funded by unknown people which in itself is a huge breach and illegal but also using other parties budgets to firebomb the electorate on the last few days.

So, it’s very difficult to blame a moron after all that. And the only people to blame are those who organised and directed it.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121569#Comment_118121569

Getting away with flagrant U-turns and blatant dishonestyy is Johnson's superpower. It's basically why the Tories chose him as leader — it's not as though he has any other qualities that fit him for his office. This is what he was called to do.

BluePlanet

INMO the Irish government has been remiss in not advancing plans for border infrastructure between RoI and NI.

Unpalatable as the concept may be, local input / public consultation should have been sought.

We've had several years.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121372#Comment_118121372

No the Brexit voters are definitely at fault. I knew a fair few in London and there was no shortage of people trying to explain that everything that's since come to pass would happen. They didn't care though nothing was going to sway them and their dream of getting rid of some foreigners.

I even knew one Irish guy born and raised in Limerick who was voting Brexit because "there were too many foreigners on his street". The lack of awareness was astounding

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121699#Comment_118121699

That would merely encourage those who thought it was a viable or acceptable solution, and/or encourage those who keep braying about the EU being about to sell us out, etc. It would also, for much of the Brexit process, have weakened the EU's hand, since it would suggest that we didn't accept the UK's good faith or reliability in regard to their commitment to avoid a hard border which, ironically, would have made it politically easier for the UK to repudiate that commitment.

They have been doing their wargaming and their disaster planning for various scenarios. But in the Brexit environment they are quite right not to air that publicly.

joeguevara

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121699#Comment_118121699

Apologies if I’m wrong but are you talking about a hard border? If so why would we advance plans that would be a breach of international law and against the will of the people we represent. If it’s not and you are taliking about a soft border, we were part of an agreement which clearly outlined how a border in the Irish Sea would work. Once those plans were agreed and signed up to and a binding Withdrawal agreement signed by an elected government and agreed to by the Nationalists and unionists in Northern Ireland. Why would we advance plans for something when we agreed to another.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121699#Comment_118121699

How do you know they have not been planning such actions as will be necessary to counteract the result of the UK refusing to comply with the NI Ptotocol?

Any plans would be in the Top Secret or higher realms of public discourse.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121699#Comment_118121699

They signed a treaty stopping any hard border so why then build infrastructure. Imagine the uproar if we spent millions on new posts and hiring and training new staff that we end up never using.

The border is on the Irish Sea and thats how the UK want it. They told us so in a treaty

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121699#Comment_118121699

Firstly, the Irish government have made it clear that they do not want any hard borders between the EU and the UK. It is the UK who are making the decisions on whether there will be a hard border or not and thankfully to date they have not chosen one.

Secondly, the Irish government (and I'm kinda referring to the Dept of Foreign Affairs mandarins here I guess) have been very good in their strategic planning and have managed to out-manouvre the UK at every point. Way back at the start, the UK wanted to leave all discussions with the EU around NI to the end of the talks. The EU (because of the Irish) refused this meaning that the UK had to square the NI circle early on (which they couldn't do satisfactorily because all approaches have been objected to by either the DUP and/or the ERG).

As for border infrastructure, why would we be planning this now? What kind of reaction would you expect from the locals? (Do their views really matter because it would have to go up anyhow assuming the British necessitated it?).

Lastly, I think that if the UK trigger Art 16 it will have massive ramifications on the UK. Price increases coming into Christmas & the new year on top of currently high prices will create public anger - I honestly can't see the public tolerating it for long. I'm curious to know if the EU's trade deals with third countries have any terms or clauses on trade between those third countries and WTO-based countries such as the UK would be.

Seth Brundle

Tony Connelly is reporting that the UK is miscalculating the EU response and that the EU response won't be a slow legal process but rather a swift reaction possibly including a suspension or termination of the TCA. See this tweet for details...

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1456548863167373346

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121954#Comment_118121954

The EU will not attempt to involve third countries in its dispute with the UK. The attempt would certainly be unsuccessful and the third countries would greatly resent it - and rightly so.

Besides, we don't need to. About 50% of the UK's external trade is with the EU, and a significant chunk of the remainder passes through the EU - I want to say another 15%, but don't quote me. Strategically, we are well-positioned to bring as much pressure as we care to on the UK through trade-related measures; we don't need to burn political capital by trying to involve others. The judgment we need to be careful about is not to apply more pressure to the UK than its actions warrant; we don't want to react disproportionately, or allow the UK to frame itself with any plausibility as the plucky underdog standing up to the regional trading superpower bully.

Politically, the US will tog out with us in opposing treaty violations by the UK. But that won't involve anything like trade sanctions by the US - more the political and diplomatic cold shoulder. And it won't be because we ask for that; the US will make its own decisions about its own positions and interests. It's just that a treaty-violating UK is very much not in their interests.

BluePlanet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121769#Comment_118121769

A hard border is not a breach of international law.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118122029#Comment_118122029

The swift reaction seems to be 9-12 months away for the heavy part though? https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1456548870171861018?s=20

Until then we need to rely on the French "working to rule" on customs (& dropping of data adequacy etc).

EDIT: does suspending or terminating the TCA require EU unanimity? (I'm just wondering about a (unlikely to be successful I assume) UK divide & conquer strategy based on getting Poland in board.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118122215#Comment_118122215

Legally, no, suspending or terminating the TCA does not require unanimity.

As for timing, while suspension/termination have long lead-in periods, even serving notice would put the UK under considerable pressure. Business put up with years of not knowing whether there would be a no-deal Brexit; the thought that the TCA might be terminated will appal them and they certainly won't want to wait 9 or 12 months to find out. The UK will be under pressure to resolve the dispute quickly, and if uncertainly persists the economic consequences will start to be felt well before the notice period expires.

Plus, in the meantime other measures can be adopted. These are not confined to "work to rule" etc; the EU can adopt targeted measures that directly address whatever it is the UK has done or purported to do under Art 16.

BluePlanet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121810#Comment_118121810

If they have plans then the public have a right to know.

I find the your concept of 'higher realms of public discourse' very discerning, in a democracy.

BluePlanet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121752#Comment_118121752

I disagree that it weakens the EU's hand.

It shows we mean business and will call the UK's bluff if it comes down to it.

INMO the UK are betting that Ireland is so afraid of standing up a border that they'll buckle and do the UK's bidding for them.

On that last score, i'm afraid they are probably correct.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118122323#Comment_118122323

By rights Sinn Fein should prefer a hard border, rightly point the finger of blame at the UK government & tell everyone that a United Ireland is the only resolution to the matter and that the UK government once again demonstrates its contempt for Ireland & NI for any other purpose other than as a hostage.

A Celtic sea border robs them of that AND suggests that Ireland can be blackmailed by UK into becoming a UK vassal. Sometimes (as with the HSE data leak), you have to recognise that you don't negotiate with terrorists.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118122308#Comment_118122308

I'm not sure if your trying to wind people up or what but the public have no right to know what the government may or may not be planning. Stop reading Facebook Freeman nonsense.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118122308#Comment_118122308

Ireland has an official secrets act and always had it's an accepted part of our democracy and workings of state.

Would be stupid for government to reveal it's hand for no reason other than humour a few lads on Boards

BluePlanet

How is it going to look if the EU turn around and say, well Ireland you'll just have to do all those checks that every other border with the SM does.

And then Ireland is totally unprepared for it, left floundering about, looking for weasel words to create a fudge of the issue.

BluePlanet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118122373#Comment_118122373

There is substantial public interest if we have to stand up border infrastructure.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118122454#Comment_118122454

I imagine that Ireland & the EU already have considered this. In reality, Ireland will start implementing a hard NI border as slowly as it is allowed to, starting with random checks etc - but implement a border is what they would eventually do.

EU would certainly have sympathy for implementing slowly to some extent so long as it eventually gets implemented (if it came to it).