Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

rock22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118349777#Comment_118349777

The Guardian are reporting that she has the support of the "Spartans". Do these not overlap with the ERG?

link Liz Truss to take on Brexit brief after David Frost resignation | Brexit | The Guardian

Leroy42

Frost was a remainer, but soon became their leading man.

Frost will now be called out for not being tough enough. Just like Cameron was, TM, Ollie Robbins and everyone else. It is always that Brexit would be great if only.

If only Johnson replaced TM, if only they could talk directly to Merkel, if only Varadkar wasn't the Taoiseach, if only, if only.

But whoever does it, the reality of the choices that Brexit creates is not going to go away. Closer ties to the EU, and thus stronger economic performance, requires closer alignment. The opposite is also true. While they have moved from the early days of thinking that everything would be easy and there was only upsides, they still haven't come clean as to the actual choices.

Truss will at least be coming from the perspective of trying to build relationships (for her 'day-job' is that) in complete 180 to Frost who seemed to go out of his way to antagonise the EU as ofter as he could. How that plays out with the ERG is another matter. Diplomacy and compromise seem to be dirty words in their view.

One must remember that Frost was seen as the man that would finally put manners on the EU. With Barnier gone (another if only) Frost would simply bang the table and stamp his feet until the EU finally gave it. And they did their best to portray it was working. But even the Express readers got tired of his constant threat to trigger Art 16, without even doing it and it was obvious that far from achieving anything he was making things worse and building resentment in the EU.

Will Truss be able to rebuild trust, trust that is needed for the future relationship to develop?

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118349777#Comment_118349777

Frost was a full remainer. He recognised, as head of the Scottish Whisky Association, that Brexit would damage the Scottish Whisky trade, so was full bore remain. He changed 180 degrees when offered a nice little earner as a negotiator.

Letter in the IT today saying Johnson has gone from an 'oven ready' Brexit to it being defrosted.

The mistrust generated by Frost has been replaced with Ms Truss.

ambro25

All revolutions devour their own children.

Brexit is no exception to the principle, irrespective of whether the children are legitimate, like Cummings, Fox, Longworth (…) or adopted like May, Frost and now Truss.

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118345235#Comment_118345235

Yeah. BS Brexit Minister is spot on...

David "I don't take notes" Davis, Micheal "No more experts" Gove, Dominic "Didn't know Dover was important" Raab, David "Renegotiate non-negotiable" Frost,... the list goes on.

It's becoming The Brexit Avengers at this stage, each with their own special power 😎

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118348066#Comment_118348066

That was actually my bet... Honestly.

It must be someone dim, incompetent and fanatic Brexiteer. She's a good fit.

Now we'll have a Wonder Woman added to The Brexit Avengers hero list. What's her special talent going to be? 🍿

Tentatively - Liz "The author of the most irrelevant trade deals in the history " Truss

Seth Brundle

Michel Barnier left a scathing couple of tweets to show how little he thought of Frost in his negotiating role...

He never convinced me of any added value from Brexit, neither for the UK nor for us... I think he always underestimated the unity of Europeans, our attachment to the single market and the mandate I had from EU’s leaders.

Snickers Man

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118349388#Comment_118349388

It sure is!

I refer you to an article in the Daily Telegraph (arch promoter of the entire Brexit project) on June 16th 2021, the day it announced the great new trade deal between Brexited Britain and Australia, negotiated chiefly by Ms Truss.

Underneath banner headlines trumpeting this terrific new deal as a slap in the face to all those Remoaners who had warned such a thing could not be done in less than a decade, it reported.

"On this basis the Aussie agreement is a success, especially if you are an Australian.......

"zero tariffs [on agricultural products] being phased in over 10 to 15 years...has ramifications for British farmers, who will fear they are being sold down the river for a Brexit win."

"The British wins don't stack up to much when compared with what Australia's negotiators secured."

"It is a win that must have outstripped Australian negotiators' hopes and expectations. It is hard to shake the feeling that Britain may have given away too much too cheaply. ......it will be unforgivable if that mistake forms the blueprint for all the trade deals to follow."

So yes. Figuratively speaking, she bent over the desk and said "take what you want big boy, you know it will satisfy me!"

I'm sure the Brussels negotiating teams are quaking in their boots!

On another point: she is the fourth person in charge of Brexit, and subsequent fallout, negotiations in the five years or so since the referendum. That job has a higher turnover of people than the manager of Manchester United, a once-great club that hasn't one a trophy in yonks despite having a budget that most teams can only dream about, and the prime minister of Israel, a country that has had FOUR general elections since 2016.

Anyone would think that nobody wants that terrible job!!

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118350858#Comment_118350858

You can add in David Cameron and Arlene Foster to that list of careers devoured by Brexit. The only question is how many more?

Surely any politician with an ounce of intelligence can see the black hole that is Brexit, and stay well clear of it. Maybe that’s the problem the intelligent ones are standing on the sidelines.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118352662#Comment_118352662

From that, I assume, one could deduce that the current cabinet have not got an ounce of intelligence between them. Many have shown that already, like Raab not understanding the importance of Dover, and how a ferry company needs ships. Truss appears to be obsessed with cheese, and no idea how to negotiate a trade deal.

ArmaniJeanss

It's probably a good move for everyone that the Brexit ministry has been taken under the wing of the Foreign Office, rather than a standalone czar like Frost was, or when it was DEXEU under Davis and then Raab.

There'll at least be some sensible civil servants within that department - used to talking with foreigners, some even speaking multiple languages and many of them who'll have worked in Brussels before. Career civil servants with a high-level grasp of the issues who should be able to side-line Truss, and tone down the worst of the rhetoric.

*My dose of Christmas optimism*

schmoo2k

I always assumed Frost was brought in as a fall guy as the NI situation has no "winnable" solution. By assigning the job to Truss, Johnson may believe she is threat to his position?

I suspect the Tory back benchers will leave Johnson as the leader until about year before the next election, replace him (and his close circle) and become a "new" Tory party with "new" leadership (who will be more traditional politicians) to ensure they can scrape enough votes to win (which won't be too hard if you look at where the money is being spent...).

Enzokk

So we start again from the start, with another UK negotiator who will be tasked by the fringe of the Conservative Party to get rid of the NIP along with the DUP and the reality of the deal the current PM agreed to and signed which contradicts this. There would be no way Truss will be able to find the deal that will satisfy both the current signed deals and satisfy the backbenchers. Which makes the PM vulnerable in that he would need Labour votes to get legislation passed if his backbench MP's get all upset defy him (see recent Covid restrictions that needed Labour to pass) and this takes away a string to Johnson's bow to fight Starmer at the dispatch box.

He cannot claim any longer that Labour is not willing to work with the government if they have worked with the government to get their guidelines through the HOC. Not that Johnson will be long for No.10, IMO, the anger that people will have due to the parties and disregard for guidelines when people were following them will mean he probably will be gone before long. Then you will have a new PM, and we start this merry process again. Where the person will need to try and fit those square pegs into round holes to appease the right of the party and the reality of the world. Rinse and Repeat, Rinse and Repeat.

BluePlanet

Do we start again from the start though?

I assume everything decided hereto is still in place.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118355798#Comment_118355798

The EU will not change the TCA or the NIP. Any changes will work within the terms of what has already been signed off by both sides

Gerry T

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118355798#Comment_118355798

Are you referring to Brexit (EU-UK trade and co-operation agreement) or the NI protocol. In either case these are both agreed and there is no re-negotiation. The UK talk as if there is but there isn't. As part of these agreements there is a means for both parties to make alterations, by mutual agreement if those changes were to ease or help the outcome of the agreement.

The UK can walk away, but that would most likely see a reaction by the EU and the UK would be placing itself in a no deal situation at best.

BluePlanet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118355885#Comment_118355885

My question was actually for the poster above me, but I didn't use the Quote option.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118355798#Comment_118355798

We don't start again; we carry on from where we currently are. The Withdrawal Agreement, including the NI Protocol, is concluded, signed, ratified and in force. That's not going to change. The Withdrawal Agreement provides procedures by which the operation of the protocol can be monitored and adjusted by agreement between the parties, and in which disagreements or differences of opinion can be discussed and resolved. Truss's role will be to be the lead UK representative in those procedures. She can depute this role to Chris Heaton-Harris (a junior minister in her Department) as required; as she has a large department to run it will probably be required quite a bit.

What remains to be seen is whether Trust/Heaton-Harris will carry on with the carrying on, or will depart from the precedent set by Frost and use the processes established by the WA for their intended purpose of managing the operation of the protocol and resolving disagreements about it.

BluePlanet

Frost seemed more hawkish than Truss, so i'm thinking she'll take the path of least resistance in talks and not get too hung up on Brexit purity.

Since Trade was her portfolio; Trade is probably her primary driver and so it will just be down to the nuts and bolts of actually implementing the NIP.

Unionists get thrown under the bus (again).

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118356077#Comment_118356077

It's hard to believe she will be as hardline as Frost. If she is, it will mean she is pitching herself at the ERG mainly and playing to their gallery.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118356077#Comment_118356077

The Unionists who voted for Brexit are only reaping what they sowed. The official DUP line seems to be no hard border and no sea border which is impossible and they know it

BluePlanet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118356282#Comment_118356282

They know it yes, but they are trying to use it as a wedge to pry Ireland either out of the SM entirely or in a SM slow lane.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118356435#Comment_118356435

I don't think even they are stupid enough to believe that will work.

I think they are just all talk about no sea border to play to their base but secretly would shart themselves if the NIP was ripped up

Seth Brundle

So it looks like Truss is continuing along the same path as Frost in terms of the Northern Ireland Protocol (which she voted in favour of, lest we forget). She possibly took her predecessors powerpoint slides and only changed the photos...

https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1473287015345098756

Looks like 2022 will be a repeat of 2021, sigh ☹️

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118356633#Comment_118356633

No surprise there. She's a thick Brexit fanatic. More intransigence on the horizon.

BluePlanet

She's probably going through old email threads and firing off replies, but hasn't gotten to Dec yet. The ECJ is here to stay.

She'll find out shortly though i'm sure.

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118356633#Comment_118356633

Well, no: recall that ‘95% fat’ customs controls are starting in a little under 2 weeks (at least on the EU27 side), with the full-fat version 6 months later.

After the trading binfire that 2021 turned out to be for UK plc when ‘semi-fat’ customs controls started 01.01.21, and given the (apparent) continuing absence of preparations by the UK in terms of infrastructure (ports, rail, transport generally, drivers, 50k trained customs professionals, etc.), I expect 2022 to be rather torrid for Truss and whoever else wears the Brexit trousers for HMG.

EDIT: and that’s before we’ve contemplated the potential hardening of the EU27 stance under Macron’s presidency, starting in…yup, a little under 2 weeks too. Popcorn’s on order 😉

There’s also the historical record of DExEU/Brexit heads:

https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1473319618567675908

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118356633#Comment_118356633

What problems in NI is she referring to ?

The NIP has been the opposite of a problem for NI. Also still loads of talk about "talks" as if they are not finished and an "oven ready" deal already signed

roosterman71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118356950#Comment_118356950

It's a problem for exporters to NI more so than exporters from NI

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118356854#Comment_118356854

Shes far from a bexit fanatic, she campaigned and voted for remain, shes a fanatic of doing whatever it takes to stay in power much like Boris.