Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118355953#Comment_118355953

I should have clarified, the negotiations over the NIP and WA that will not be changed will start again. You will have Truss ask for the impossible and the EU will turn her down. Like with all those before. That is why I said it starts again, not any negotiations, but trying to get the UK to accept what they have done and what they actually signed up for. This includes Steve Baker who voted for Johnson Brexit deal and the TCA as well. Trying to back off something he supported is just pure fantasy and he will be pushing, like he always had, for those unicorns to appear.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118356077#Comment_118356077

Since the trade deal has been concluded already, not sure what she will be looking for actually. We know her job will be to work with the EU to make the deals signed work. She seems to think her job is to negotiate new deals with the EU. Same as Frost did before although she isn't trying to wreck her own deal. But she did vote for it and she is in cabinet when all of this was agreed.

BluePlanet

I posted on the Irish Protocol thread once, why don't the British just implement their 'smart border' solution for trade between GB & NI, show that it works before seeking buy-in from the EU.

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118357202#Comment_118357202

Because it doesn't... 😉

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118357451#Comment_118357451

I assumed that post was satire but maybe not

An Ciarraioch

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118356981#Comment_118356981

Indeed, the ESRI published a report today on IRL-UK trade trends since Brexit - our exports to GB have barely been affected, but imports from GB have fallen in every sector:

https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/WP714_2.pdf

The one area that has been affected on our side has been food and beverages, but even there, GB only comprises 18% of exports. Interestingly, of the food we import from UK, over half now comes from NI - presumably more use of the Cairnryan-Larne ferry?

Sam Russell

The diversion of GB>IRL imports to GB>NI>IRL was not mentioned on the radio today, just the GB>IRL and NI>IRL.

I wonder why? It is obvious that some diversion is going on as the ferry traffic into Holyhead/Dublin has dropped by 50% while Larne and Belfast has increased greatly.

There appear to be no proper figures for NI trade with GB.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118356633#Comment_118356633

Regardless of her medium- to long-term intentions, I think she pretty much has to start off saying ERG-type things so that the ERG applaud her; it's kind of necessary bedding-in to her new role.

Her present aura of success is down to the rollover trade deals she has negotiated. She has done this by basically agreeing to what other countries want, adding some parsley as a garnish in the form of quotas for UK specialty cheeses, and then presentign the result as a masterpiece. With any luck, her instinct will be to try the same approach here.

It's significant that she's not asking for the ECJ to be "removed", just that it no longer the the "final arbiter". This suggests that she's going to suggest that disputes should come before the Joint Committee, the JC should refer questions of EU law to the ECJ, the ECJ should answer those questions and the JC should then apply the answer in the solution to the dispute that it comes up with. Because the last step will be taken by the JC, the ECJ won't be the final arbiter of disputes, but it's rulings will still be binding on the JC. The EU could possibly live with that; it's a model they already use elsewhere.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118357855#Comment_118357855

There are no proper figures for NI:GB trade, in either direction; the UK government doesn't compile them.

(Which, incidentally, will be a problem if the UK ever does invoke Art 16, citing "diversion of trade" as its justification. They won't have good evidence of diversion of trade because, even if they start measuring GB:NI trade now, they won't have any "before" figures to do a comparison with.)

As to why diversion of GB-RoI trade via NI is not being mentioned, the answer is because, if anyone would be entitled to complain about that diversion, it would be the EU. And the EU isn't complaining about it.

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118357000#Comment_118357000

Erm... The fact that she campaigned for Remain doesn't mean she's a remainer or EU lover. It was a cold blooded position she took for example to show allegiance to the Cameron camp.

We don't know what she really thinks in her head but she's definitely a Brexiter of a fanatic type Rule Britannia and all that by the way she speaks and acts.

I expect further trouble ahead. Continuation of negotiation of non-negotiable in a situation where the other side (EU) doesn't and won't negotiate. In other words, acting purely for internal propaganda purposes. How long she can sustain that is another question. The clock is ticking...

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118359905#Comment_118359905

David Cameron was another such "remainer". Hated the EU, an out and out Europhobe Nigel Farage style, but thought it would it would be marginally better to stay in. Perhaps the main reason he held the referendum and gambled with the UK's future was his contempt / dislike for Europe : a genuine remainer would never have held that referendum.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118360658#Comment_118360658

Nah. He kept throwing meat to the English nationalists and Eurosceptics in his party. Naturally, they got more assertive as a result and would only fall in line if he held a referendum on the subject. He had Jeremy Corbyn as his opposite number. All he had to do was ask Steve Baker if he fancies a Socialist Britain to get back in line but he took the easy way out and now this country will be paying the price for decades.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118360716#Comment_118360716

Wasn't it reported that he threatened an EU Council summit with holding an in / out referendum and that he would campaign to leave? That was a Nigel Farage moment right there - he always saw a referendum as a weapon that could be used against the EU.

This looks like it will just roll on and on until the next U.K. general election by which time the electorate will be so fed up with the topic and the Tories that they’ll be out of office for a few terms.

I honestly don’t see any progress being made in this nor do I see any US UK deal emerging anytime in the next few years either.

It’s likely to be another few years of being stuck on the spin cycle.

Leroy42

James O'Brien made a good point today, nothing new about the point but just felt it summed the whole debacle up, that the UK forgot that it was a two way street, that it was a relationship of two sides and that Taking Back Control was never going to be the one way system that it was made out to be.

This is best summed up by the NI border, with many Brexiteers stating that they never even considered the NI border an issue, and that is where the feeling that the EU has weaponised it. They haven't (although they have of course leveraged it), it was just that it wasn't simply up to the UK to decide how everything was going to work once they left, the EU were always going to have a say (and a greater say given the comparative size)

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/1222/1268155-brexit-fish-quotas/

The EU-British agreement was reached the same day Britain signed a separate fish-quota deal with Norway, a non-EU country that also negotiates with Brussels on shared stocks.

But don't worry, they can still squabble over the Channel Islands licenses if they want to make noises about taking back control.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118360727#Comment_118360727

Just empty posturing. He barely asked the EU for anything and then pretended that the EU wasn't the oppressive construct he'd made it out to be.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118361189#Comment_118361189

It does illustrate though that he saw referendums as a 'tool' or a 'weapon' that could be used to gain political advantage. He couldn't give a flying fig what the British public thought about anything : a referendum was to be used solely to boost his own ends.

It was no accident that the UK crashed out of the EU on his watch....it was totally down to his arrogance.

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118360716#Comment_118360716

I concur.

And a personal note - his behaviour was one of the main reasons why I decided to leave the UK in early 2015. I followed the public political discourse quite closely and could smell the trouble in the air... It was going only one direction, I didn't expect them to leave the EU, but I predicted the poisoned well would only become more poisoned. Which did happen and is happening now 7 years later.

The best decision of my life. Perhaps, I was luckier than you @ancapailldorcha, I'm horrified thinking about what would happen if I got stuck in the UK until after Brexit...

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118361289#Comment_118361289

Lucky or shrewd. I'm still here but it's a sense of relief being an Irish citizen who can just exit at any time. My job applications and career change ideas aren't panning out so I'm stuck for now but if I were English and unable to rest knowing I had that option because those who are allegedly wiser than myself decided that they thought there were too many Indians, I think I'd have blown a gasket.

I think you probably made the right call. Presumably you moved to or returned to Ireland. I only started following politics in 2014, at the time UKIP won the European elections. I used to have the odd day for years after the referendum where I'd think "They not only voted for this but rubberstamped it". I'd say you were shrewd to leave when you did.

Ironically enough, I feel a bit more optimistic now than I've ever done. We're seeing on a daily basis how abjectly corrupt and incompetent the nationalists here are. Thatcher was shrewd enough to keep individuals like Willie Whitelaw around ("Every Prime Minister needs her Willie") because she valued talent and debate. Johnson, by contrast acts like a decadent medieval monarch with sinecures granted on the basis of loyalty and compliance.

Eventually, the UK will either rejoin once the country grows up a bit and finally, after almost a century accepts its postwar status as a European power and not a global power. The alternative is close alignment with Brussels such that there'll be minimal difference between the two in most respects.

It really has to be the most ridiculous government to have been in office in the U.K. in a very long time.

I can’t think of any precedent in modern history. There have been U.K. governments and prime ministers that I would not have particularly liked or agreed with, but they were all very reasonable, logical and statesmanly in how they operated and stuck to facts.

This government is untrustworthy, lacks any kind of logic, it’s dogmatic, unpredictable, has a very loose relationship with facts, seems to just make things up to suit any narrative. When in doubt : bluster shout.

I honestly can’t see how any kind of reasonable negotiations can go anywhere.

We seem to be back to threats, tweets and tabloid headlines again. It’s beyond a joke.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362494#Comment_118362494

It's a party that seems to have forgotten the distinction between governing and campaigning and remains stuck in the latter mode. We're supposed to be wowed by this charade of Frost and now Truss renegotiating with the EU when the result will be at best moderate alterations already permissible within the agreement which will be reported as a sideline while the next scandal is in progress.

Strazdas

It strikes me that Johnson turning the Tory Party into the Brexit Party and banishing all remainers may turn out to be the best thing that could have happened. Brexit may well destroy the Tory Party and the Tory Party may well destroy Brexit - the two are utterly toxic but are also intertwined and interlinked and will pull each other down simultaneously.

It's a failed party coupled with a failed ideology.

An Ciarraioch

Andrew Duff, who used to be a Lib Dem MEP has published a paper proposing an "affiliate membership" of the EU, encompassing the UK, EFTA countries, and the various candidate applicants, along with current members sceptical of federalisation - in truth, it's hard to see why Norway or Switzerland would want to change their current status, nor why Brussels would want more interminable talks with Britain:

https://epc.eu/en/Publications/Dealing-with-the-Neighbours-The-case-for-an-affiliate-membership-of-t~44e2c4

Enzokk

It's been a year since Brexit and the measure of success seems to have changed.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1473709298144452622?s=20

Watch how Brexiters shift what success looks like with Brexit, because if they face reality it will not turn out well for them.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362915#Comment_118362915

It'd also be quite tempting for some of the existing members, which would not be something that'd be encouraged!

Andy-Pandy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118227804#Comment_118227804

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118226110#Comment_118226110

Andy-Pandy

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362915#Comment_118362915

"Sceptical of federalisation" sounds like code for Europhobic or anti-EU (is this guy really a Lib Dem?). This "we hate the EU, but want to do some business with you" line wouldn't wash for a moment.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362915#Comment_118362915

Reminder : The UK was a founder member of the EFTA which was the original affiliate membership group. They left the EFTA, the EU and the EEA and organisations like EurAtom, they clicked all the boxes and burned bridges whether they needed to or not.

The EFTA has been doing fine as an EU affiliate but would have a very different relationship to places like Turkey and Andorra and Northern Ireland and Gibraltar.

There is nothing in that document that suggests that the UK wants anything other than other countries to go out of their way to aid the UK who are the authors, literally in the case of Article 50 and blocking Galileo, of their own misfortunes.

The pdf contains this show stopper "I propose that the EU should combine with NATO to establish a new intergovernmental organisation, a European Security Council." 21 EU countries and 4 accession states are already part of NATO this is the EU view and here is the NATO view on existing cooperation. It's already as close as the neutral countries would like.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362915#Comment_118362915

That'll be seen as cherry picking in the extreme.

It's one of the issues I encountered speaking to many remainers and even some Scottish nationalists. A lot of them seem to want at the very least a return to the exceptionalism of all the opt outs the UK had, while a member, and then add a load more to go with it.

The reality is the UK has treated the EU abysmally over the last few years and it there's a huge risk any deal with the UK on something like that would be undermined and undone, or would be used by others in the British political spectrum to undermine the very idea of the EU or to act as a giant tax and regulatory haven.

So unfortunately, I think they've made their bed. At best you're looking at a comprehensive trade deal as a 3rd country. The notion of friends with benefits isn't very appealing and the EU doesn't owe them a free lunch either.

Organisations like EFTA and the Swiss bilaterals all predate the foundation of the EU and coevolved alongside it. They're legacy arrangements from another era.

There's very little appetite in EFTA to have the UK swamp them either. It would become the UK (and some other places...)

So frankly, most of these proposals don't really fly.

I think you're looking at a narrow, economic trade deal and that's all.