Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

I told ya

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

To be fair, only one of those parties has the word "Unionist" in their title.

IIRC the Unionist in the title refers to The Liberal Unionist Party with whom they merged sometime in the early 1900s and not the Ulster Unionists.

Carson certainly didn't have a high opinion of them.

ancapailldorcha

I told ya wrote: »

IIRC the Unionist in the title refers to The Liberal Unionist Party with whom they merged sometime in the early 1900s and not the Ulster Unionists.

Carson certainly didn't have a high opinion of them.

Carson knew that the English didn't care about Northern Ireland. Unionists have always known this to some degree in my experience. I think its the key part of the reason for the cultural paranoia and reluctance to compromise.

I told ya

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Carson knew that the English didn't care about Northern Ireland. Unionists have always known this to some degree in my experience. I think its the key part of the reason for the cultural paranoia and reluctance to compromise.

Maybe deep down some of the Unionists realise that the other GB nations are at times indifferent to NI and at times wouldn't be too unhappy if NI was jettisoned.

ancapailldorcha

I told ya wrote: »

Maybe deep down some of the Unionists realise that the other GB nations are at times indifferent to NI and at times wouldn't be too unhappy if NI was jettisoned.

In my experience, it's something they're well aware of. There is a good (from their perspective) reason that they feel the need to be obstinate and unyielding.

PadraigBr

Not easy to mention so can’t say but it might take ages to see and also if government changes then only, rest will have to wait and see what decisions will be taken by all sides in coming time which could be good for all.

Professor Moriarty

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I think Tories are also unionist officially according to Wikipedia at least

——-

The Conservative Party, officially the Conservative and Unionist Party, and also known colloquially as the Tories, Tory Party, or simply the Conservatives, is a political party in the United Kingdom.

53% of Tory voters don't care if NI leaves the UK.

I told ya

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

In my experience, it's something they're well aware of. There is a good (from their perspective) reason that they feel the need to be obstinate and unyielding.

I accept your point. IMV obstinate and unyielding is self defeating and that's their problem.

The Unionist MPs are not doing their day job, promoting job creation, education, housing, healthcare, etc. Improving the lot of their constituents.

Makes their opposition to the GFA and their support of Brexit all the more baffling. The GFA really is all things to all people, you can be Irish, N Irish, British, passports, travel, support from Dublin, London, EU, USA. Major world players are there in support.

Hurrache

So Gove is writing to the EU with proposals around the NI protocol, the protocol in place for a wet month which Johnson sold as a magnificent deal. They don't really think do they.

The EU needs to work with us at speed, and with determination and resolve a series of outstanding issues with the protocol.

CelticRambler

wexfordman2 wrote: »

You are correct, not everyone who voted for brexit was a clueless racist gobshyte, but you can bet every clueless racist gobshyte voted for brexit, and I fully respect the outcome.

What I'd be more worried about is the extent to which "ordinary" British voters - not the C-R-G types - are/were so detached from the relevance of the EU. That's almost as much the fault of the EU for not running educational campaigns in the UK at the time Cameron was coming under pressure as it is the fault of those in the UK who suppressed every positive thing that the EU achieved, or re-wrote it as a Tory virtue.

In that context, it's no surprise that 52% voted for a change in the status quo; but it's interesting to see that there are Irish contributors to this discussion still trying to make out that that 52% was in favour of a one, single, defined version of Brexit when we know now - as a hard, incontestable fact - that (a) there was never one defined version of Brexit; and (b) there was no agreement among the 52% as to which of the many variations on the theme would be acceptable.

The reports now appearing in the news, of British industries taken completely by surprise by the reality of their new Third Country status, indicate just how far removed were so many ordinary British people from the relevance of the EU to their personal and business lives.

It's also interesting to see that those posters who talk about this mythical 52% as some kind of unified demographic are frequently those remarking upon the shared cultural heritage that Ireland has with its nearest neighbour - as if Ireland does not have an equal, indeed stronger, shared cultural heritage with the whole of Atlantic Europe and many links deep into the Continent.

It appears to me that there's a cohort of Irishmen who still fawn over the abusive Uncle next door, at the expense of the healthier relationships to be had with other family members (I suffered a fierce backlash for suggesting this before; hopefully the change of phraseology will be less triggerist. )

Sam Russell

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

The EU should reply with “we will try with best effort”

Or - 'It is a pity we do not have an Ambassador that could handle this diplomatically.'

yagan

I told ya wrote: »

Maybe deep down some of the Unionists realise that the other GB nations are at times indifferent to NI and at times wouldn't be too unhappy if NI was jettisoned.

When you consider that in response to the Home Rule Bill Carson went to Berlin to meet the Kaiser to discuss switching allegiance, and shortly after the UVF landed 25.000 German guns at Larne, I think it's truer to say their primal identity was never British, but rather being in control a promised land, hence the Ulster Covenant.

In biblical terms Carson and his community were Old Testament, the Easter Rising leaders were New Testament.

As King Billy was another continental royal switching to another for patronage wasn't an issue.

At the core of the community is a Calvinist belief in a predestined promised land. In 2019 the Irish presbyterian church voted to split with its sister Scottish church over the issue of same sex marriage, but other issues like the 2013 Scottish Churches review "The Inheritance of Abraham: A Report on the Promised Land" ruffled a lot of feathers amongst their Irish brethren.

ancapailldorcha

I told ya wrote: »

I accept your point. IMV obstinate and unyielding is self defeating and that's their problem.

The Unionist MPs are not doing their day job, promoting job creation, education, housing, healthcare, etc. Improving the lot of their constituents.

Makes their opposition to the GFA and their support of Brexit all the more baffling. The GFA really is all things to all people, you can be Irish, N Irish, British, passports, travel, support from Dublin, London, EU, USA. Major world players are there in support.

That's not the primary problem. The primary problem is that Unionism has never evolved past the point of "Ulster says no". They were in control but never thought how to ensure the status quo prevailed in the long term.

Then came the GFA and power sharing. In the meantime, the nationalists have played an absolute blinder by projecting soft power and building alliances across the world as well as embracing progressive causes.

I don't think it's if anymore. It's when. I've family members who perfectly exemplify the problem. Refuse to acknowledge that the other side has a point, reject any attempt at reaching consensus or compromise and then wonder when talk of a border poll starts growing.

mick087

I was expecting a lot more issues if im honest
But have to say its not been as bad as many predicted, but its also not as good as some predicted.
Its very early days with issues on all sides.

EU nationalists and staunch brexiteers will all scream they are correct no matter what.

Time will tell on this, its not a over night success or failure situation.
Change is easy.

J Mysterio

Since when did 'EU Nationalists' even become a thing? Since the AstraZeneca row? It's absurd.

I told ya

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That's not the primary problem. The primary problem is that Unionism has never evolved past the point of "Ulster says no". They were in control but never thought how to ensure the status quo prevailed in the long term.

Then came the GFA and power sharing. In the meantime, the nationalists have played an absolute blinder by projecting soft power and building alliances across the world as well as embracing progressive causes.

I don't think it's if anymore. It's when. I've family members who perfectly exemplify the problem. Refuse to acknowledge that the other side has a point, reject any attempt at reaching consensus or compromise and then wonder when talk of a border poll starts growing.

I agree with your comments.

IMV I don't think a boarder poll would pass in the ROI. Would be very easy to campaign against. Just go through the RTE archives and bombard people with all the events since 1969. Also, the T&Cs of a poll would be very difficult to agree. Would it be 50% of the poll +1. Absolute nightmare stuff.

I may have posted before but IMV it's worth repeating, the Ulster Unionists really need to read what the Late CC O'Brien wrote, something along the lines: the Ulster Unionists need to realise that their last battle will not be with the Irish Unionists but with the English Unionists.

Lemming

mick087 wrote: »

I was expecting a lot more issues if im honest
But have to say its not been as bad as many predicted, but its also not as good as some predicted.
Its very early days with issues on all sides.

The vast stockpiles of products & materials built up in the months prior to Brexit with a view to insulating companies from confusion on Jan 1st need to start running down first; then you can expect to see a lot more issues. It wont be a big-bang thing, it'll just be death by a thousand cuts as it all gets progressively worse and issues start compounding other issues, etc. Fresh food industries are the tip of that particular iceberg by their very nature; a proverbial canary in a coal mine if you will.

HalfAndHalf

Hurrache wrote: »

So Gove is writing to the EU with proposals around the NI protocol, the protocol in place for a wet month which Johnson sold as a magnificent deal. They don't really think do they.

Coveney said the same thing at the weekend. It’s in place but both sides have said there are outstanding issues that aren’t working that need resolving.

Professor Moriarty

CelticRambler wrote: »

What I'd be more worried about is the extent to which "ordinary" British voters - not the C-R-G types - are/were so detached from the relevance of the EU. That's almost as much the fault of the EU for not running educational campaigns in the UK at the time Cameron was coming under pressure as it is the fault of those in the UK who suppressed every positive thing that the EU achieved, or re-wrote it as a Tory virtue.

The optics of the EU running pro-EU campaigns in Britain prior to the referendum would have been very self-defeating. The real blame lies in the very poor Remain campaign.

In that context, it's no surprise that 52% voted for a change in the status quo; but it's interesting to see that there are Irish contributors to this discussion still trying to make out that that 52% was in favour of a one, single, defined version of Brexit when we know now - as a hard, incontestable fact - that (a) there was never one defined version of Brexit; and (b) there was no agreement among the 52% as to which of the many variations on the theme would be acceptable.

True but since the referendum, a large minority have rowed in behind a hard Brexit. Many polls reflect this. For instance, a poll last week showed that 44% of British people think that Brexit is going well or fairly well. 44% gets the Tories elected with a large majority.

The reports now appearing in the news, of British industries taken completely by surprise by the reality of their new Third Country status, indicate just how far removed were so many ordinary British people from the relevance of the EU to their personal and business lives.

Very true. Most ordinary people just shrugged their shoulders. However, many elements of British business, such as Farmers' unions and the CBI were vehement in their opposition to a hard Brexit. Needless to say, they were largely ignored.

It's also interesting to see that those posters who talk about this mythical 52% as some kind of unified demographic are frequently those remarking upon the shared cultural heritage that Ireland has with its nearest neighbour - as if Ireland does not have an equal, indeed stronger, shared cultural heritage with the whole of Atlantic Europe and many links deep into the Continent

We have links with other countries. However, by a country mile, our strongest links across a broad spectrum are with the UK.

It appears to me that there's a cohort of Irishmen who still fawn over the abusive Uncle next door, at the expense of the healthier relationships to be had with other family members (I suffered a fierce backlash for suggesting this before; hopefully the change of phraseology will be less triggerist. )

Ireland has a clear opportunity here and now. We can continue to maintain close links with the UK (especially economic) while forging closer links with other European nations via the EU. This could be the best of both worlds if we are strategic.

J Mysterio

I told ya wrote: »

I agree with your comments.

IMV I don't think a boarder poll would pass in the ROI. Would be very easy to campaign against. Just go through the RTE archives and bombard people with all the events since 1969. Also, the T&Cs of a poll would be very difficult to agree. Would it be 50% of the poll +1. Absolute nightmare stuff.

I may have posted before but IMV it's worth repeating, the Ulster Unionists really need to read what the Late CC O'Brien wrote, something along the lines: the Ulster Unionists need to realise that their last battle will not be with the Irish Unionists but with the English Unionists.

As far as I'm aware, this is set out in the GFA - a simple majority.

bob mcbob

Hurrache wrote: »

So Gove is writing to the EU with proposals around the NI protocol, the protocol in place for a wet month which Johnson sold as a magnificent deal. They don't really think do they.

Thats funny - as in the UK press the message form the UK Government is

Adapt (or die)

Northern Irish businesses are being urged to take advantage of the available resources to help them adapt to new trading rules which came into force on 1 January following the end of the Brexit transition period.

There is a wide range of free support available to help businesses comply with the new arrangements and avoid potential disruption.

Businesses should take action immediately in order to make sure they do not fall foul of the rules.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/brexit-business-rules-northern-ireland-b1790925.html

Professor Moriarty

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Has there been any news on hiring those 50,000 customs agents or if the fabled IT systems are ready? So far all the Brexit pain has been with 46% of UK exports

What will happen when they stop waving through incoming imports?

12,000 hired to date. It now appears that many of them are undertrained.

listermint

mick087 wrote: »

I was expecting a lot more issues if im honest
But have to say its not been as bad as many predicted, but its also not as good as some predicted.
Its very early days with issues on all sides.

EU nationalists and staunch brexiteers will all scream they are correct no matter what.

Time will tell on this, its not a over night success or failure situation.
Change is easy.

Name one business that has done in any way we'll out of so far.

Name thousands of businesses who have lost large percentages of their revenue streams.


There's a continued attempt to rewrite the narrative.

J Mysterio

J Mysterio wrote: »

As far as I'm aware, this is set out in the GFA - a simple majority.

The 49.9% group will not accept the outcome, just look how vocal the 48% are in the UK after the Brexit vote!


In reality for it to be credible, it would need around 60%

mick087

Lemming wrote: »

The vast stockpiles of products & materials built up in the months prior to Brexit with a view to insulating companies from confusion on Jan 1st need to start running down first; then you can expect to see a lot more issues. It wont be a big-bang thing, it'll just be death by a thousand cuts as it all gets progressively worse and issues start compounding other issues, etc. Fresh food industries are the tip of that particular iceberg by their very nature; a proverbial canary in a coal mine if you will.

No one will die of a 1000 cuts.

No one likes change but change is coming to the UK be it a disaster or be it utopia.

All EU remaining states elected governments are watching UK very closely to see what leaving the EU really entails longterm.

Podge_irl

Deleted User wrote: »

The 49.9% group will not accept the outcome, just look how vocal the 48% are in the UK after the Brexit vote!


In reality for it to be credible, it would need around 60%

It is unlikely to be called without a reasonable expectation of 55-60% support I would think, but the nature of the requirement is already set.

Professor Moriarty

mick087 wrote: »

No one will die of a 1000 cuts.

No one likes change but change is coming to the UK be it a disaster or be it utopia.

All EU remaining states elected governments are watching UK very closely to see what leaving the EU really entails longterm.

I think they've already seen enough.

I told ya

Deleted User wrote: »

The 49.9% group will not accept the outcome, just look how vocal the 48% are in the UK after the Brexit vote!


In reality for it to be credible, it would need around 60%

40% is still a sizeable minority.

Maybe somewhat academic as I feel that it would not pass in the ROI. Very easy to run the No campaign in the ROI and coupled with the media blitz from the No campaign in NI, I can't see a majority, even a simple one of 50% +1.

J Mysterio

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The 49.9% group will not accept the outcome, just look how vocal the 48% are in the UK after the Brexit vote!


In reality for it to be credible, it would need around 60%

As with Brexit, thems the rules.

Nonetheless, if you look at the polls, there are a group who are keen, a group who are dead against, and a significant apathetic middle - these are the swing voters who will need to be targeted by either campagin.

If the conversation around a UI gains pace, I'm sure campaigns will start in earnest.

I don't think now is the right time anyhow. Once (hopefully) the pandemic subsides, it may become more of a pressing issue. At that point, the status of NI will be more clear.

I would have thought that the protocol would have made a UI less likely, as they should have been enjoying 'the best of both worlds' with lots of opportunity to exploit that. At the moment, the focus is instead on the problems brought about by the protocol, not any advantages.

It's funny as Nationalists won't really want to harp on about protocol positives too much, as it can detract from a UI argument. Unionists should probably make the best of it and tease out the advantages, but they can't bring themselves to do it and can only focus on their 'seperation anxiety', as always.

yagan

J Mysterio wrote: »

Since when did 'EU Nationalists' even become a thing? Since the AstraZeneca row? It's absurd.

I wouldn't knock that tag yet. It could well appropriated by NI unionists who accept the link with Britain is over, but would rather fly an EU fleg a tricolour.

The European Unionist Party of Norn Iron!

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

The 49.9% group will not accept the outcome, just look how vocal the 48% are in the UK after the Brexit vote!


In reality for it to be credible, it would need around 60%

No. The precedent set in 2016 is that you can make any sort of constitutional change you want using any lies you want for the referendum campaign and then implement what you really want and all that this requires is a referendum and a 50%+1 majority.

The 48% might have been vocal but we were ultimately powerless. In 2017, politics went back to business as usual and that was that.