Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

J Mysterio

I told ya wrote: »

40% is still a sizeable minority.

Maybe somewhat academic as I feel that it would not pass in the ROI. Very easy to run the No campaign in the ROI and coupled with the media blitz from the No campaign in NI, I can't see a majority, even a simple one of 50% +1.

Don't be so sure on that. I'm confident a large swathe of the country would vote for unification.

There will always be those making the economic argument against the proposition, but this is more than economics, and the division of Ireland shaped our politics for a hundred years.

While it's quite different from German reunification, these things create their own energy and momentum. It would be quite a moment, I'm sure.

mick087

listermint wrote: »

Name one business that has done in any way we'll out of so far.

Name thousands of businesses who have lost large percentages of their revenue streams.

There's a continued attempt to rewrite the narrative.

I have not said any business did well out of this.
Yes i would agree businesses have lost large percentages of their revenue streams.

There is no attempt to rewrite the narrative on brexit by myself.

Brexit is in early days.

Hurrache

Deleted User wrote: »

The 49.9% group will not accept the outcome, just look how vocal the 48% are in the UK after the Brexit vote!


In reality for it to be credible, it would need around 60%

Brexit was sold on a platform of lies though.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

No. The precedent set in 2016 is that you can make any sort of constitutional change you want using any lies you want for the referendum campaign and then implement what you really want and all that this requires is a referendum and a 50%+1 majority.

The 48% might have been vocal but we were ultimately powerless. In 2017, politics went back to business as usual and that was that.

I don't think you can say politics went back to business as usual. For instance, the 2019 GE was completely dominated by Brexit. Similarly, there has been a surge in support for Scottish independence as a result of Brexit. Brexit is a new and systemic core element of British politics.

yagan

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Ireland has a clear opportunity here and now. We can continue to maintain close links with the UK (especially economic) while forging closer links with other European nations via the EU. This could be the best of both worlds if we are strategic.

What can Britain provide us that can't be supplied frictionlessly in the single market?

Even on the issue of RHD cars I can see the old used Jap import market coming back. In fact any Irish car dealer with brains should be making connections with Maltese and Cypriot dealers for selling on used Irish cars.

moon2

J Mysterio wrote: »

I would have thought that the protocol would have made a UI less likely, as they should have been enjoying 'the best of both worlds' with lots of opportunity to exploit that. At the moment, the focus is instead on the problems brought about by the protocol, not any advantages.

Do you think "the best of both worlds" is a lie, or is it actually the best of both worlds? The current, and permanent, import controls would suggest it was, to the greater part, a lie.

mick087

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think they've already seen enough.

I would agree if you had of said the EU commission had seen enough.

But the reality is the remaining states elected governments all know this only the start. We can only but speculate the longterm outcome.

Professor Moriarty

yagan wrote: »

What can Britain provide us that can't be supplied frictionlessly in the single market?

Even on the issue of RHD cars I can see the old used Jap import market coming back. In fact any Irish car dealer with brains should be making connections with Maltese and Cypriot dealers for selling on used Irish cars.

It's not so much what they can provide us. It's more about Ireland maintaining its exports to the UK as much as possible while pursuing new opportunities within the EU. It doesn't have to be either/or.

Professor Moriarty

mick087 wrote: »

I would agree if you had of said the EU commission had seen enough.

But the reality is the remaining states elected governments all know this only the start. We can only but speculate the longterm outcome.

Indeed, but I know where my money would be.

J Mysterio

moon2 wrote: »

Do you think "the best of both worlds" is a lie, or is it actually the best of both worlds? The current, and permanent, import controls would suggest it was, to the greater part, a lie.

Well, NI citizens can continue to enjoy the benefits of EU membership, which is a lot better than not enjoying these benefits, and we can continue to enjoy an open border and easy access across all parts of the island.

NI remains part of the UK, which satisfys Unionists to a point and while there have been problems in trade with the UK, it's probably true to say many have not done their homework RE requirements in this area. Nonetheless, we can see that there is easier access to UK from NI ('part of the EU'), hence all the kerfuffle on article 16 of the protocol.

mick087

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Indeed, but I know where my money would be.

Good to see you only stated would.

listermint

mick087 wrote: »

I have not said any business did well out of this.
Yes i would agree businesses have lost large percentages of their revenue streams.

There is no attempt to rewrite the narrative on brexit by myself.

Brexit is in early days.

Au Contraire , you've said in the last post that you see very little has changed either positive or negative and that it's early days .

Yet there has been job losses up and down the country. Not reported in the BBC might I ad.

Severe drops on revenue from small firms all over.

Stocks dwindling and an massive drop in exports.

Ports furloughing staff and the ferry companies moving rolling Ferries away from the UK entirely.


Now with all that negative results in these few short weeks you are saying very little has happened negativity and that not much has happened positively either. It's early days.


Give me some positive results . Anything just one that puts the positive on par with above


Just anything really

ancapailldorcha

mick087 wrote: »

I would agree if you had of said the EU commission had seen enough.

But the reality is the remaining states elected governments all know this only the start. We can only but speculate the longterm outcome.

What about this augurs well in your opinion?

They've spaffed away literal hundreds of billions of pounds, destroyed their soft power and reputation and several businesses seem to be either emigrating or going bankrupt.

mick087

listermint wrote: »

Au Contraire , you've said in the last post that you see very little has changed either positive or negative and that it's early days .

Yet there has been job losses up and down the country. Not reported in the BBC might I ad.

Severe drops on revenue from small firms all over.

Stocks dwindling and an massive drop in exports.

Ports furloughing staff and the ferry companies moving rolling Ferries away from the UK entirely.

Now with all that negative results in these few short weeks you are saying very little has happened negativity and that not much has happened positively either. It's early days.

Give me some positive results . Anything just one that puts the positive on par with above

Just anything really

Yes this all sounds very bleak i admit.

This will be temporary and lets hope that the UK leaving the EU proves to be better or as good as being in the EU for the UK.

The simple fact they can now choose there own destiny.

But i would not class that as just anything i would class that is a valid factual point.

Seth Brundle

mick087 wrote: »

Yes this all sounds very bleak i admit.

This will be temporary and lets hope that the UK leaving the EU proves to be better or as good as being in the EU for the UK.

The simple fact they can now choose there own destiny.

But i would class that as just anything i would class that is a valid factual point.

Just so we're clear, this won't have a good outcome for the UK and whilst they may keep their head above water, it will be very costly on the UK in the short and medium terms; possibly even the in long term.
The finance side of things hasn't even started. Once the 18 month transition finishes, London will have suffered massively. Add in the likleihood that there will be little foreign investment and the UK as a trading and investment hub is unlikely.
Whilst you're right and they can now choose their own destiny, they have left a union where they were a leading member for a situation where they will still want to trade with that union but they will be at a massive disadvantage. It is unlikely that they can plug that hole with additional trade deals.
Being able to choose your destiny is all well and good but when you have very few available choices, then it isn't quite so good!

View

mick087 wrote: »

Yes this all sounds very bleak i admit.

This will be temporary and lets hope that the UK leaving the EU proves to be better or as good as being in the EU for the UK.

The simple fact they can now choose there own destiny.

But i would class that as just anything i would class that is a valid factual point.

All EU countries can choose their own destinys.

As we have seen, in the case of the U.K., they were always free to leave. No one ever held a gun to their head and forced them to be a member of the ECs/EU.

Seth Brundle

mick087 wrote: »

The fishing seemed to be a big thing with the UK electorate.
Apparently over the next few years the fishing will improve for the UK.

Will have to see how this pans out.

Improve in what way? That they'll catch more fish? What will they then do with it?
Has government money been set aside to retrain fishermen, upgrade the fleet of trawlers, create the various processing plants?
How will it actually improve apart from maybe a few Tories saying so?

Hermy

mick087 wrote: »

The simple fact they can now choose there own destiny.

When has that ever not been the case?

dilallio

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

In meantime

https://bmmagazine.co.uk/news/the-uk-fashion-industry-is-facing-decimation-over-brexit-trade-deal/

Yet another industry thrown under Boris’s red bus

My favourite quote from that article

Last week Samantha Cameron — whose husband David, then prime minister, called the 2016 Brexit referendum — warned her fashion business was finding post-Brexit trading with the EU “challenging and difficult”.

mick087

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Improve in what way? That they'll catch more fish? What will they then do with it?
Has government money been set aside to retrain fishermen, upgrade the fleet of trawlers, create the various processing plants?
How will it actually improve apart from maybe a few Tories saying so?

I not able to tell you what will happen tomorrow let alone in a few years.

Seth Brundle

mick087 wrote: »

I not able to tell you what will happen tomorrow let alone in a few years.

In fairness, you did tell us that "Apparently over the next few years the fishing will improve for the UK" :rolleyes:

mick087

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Wait no more, how about current complete collapse of UK shellfish industry?

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/british-fishers-warn-of-fatal-blow-as-eu-bans-shellfish-indefinitely/01/02/

Reading that article it seems that there maybe many serious issues in store for shell fish.

The jornalists view is the UK government has not done its job.
I guess this will be up to the electorate to decide.

I told ya

May have been posted earlier

https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/the-davis-downside-dossier/

Yorkshire Bylines are keeping a score card on the positives and negatives for the UK. Based on David Davis' statement to the Mother of Parliaments, that there were no downsides to Brexit, only considerable upsides, or words to that effect.

Worth a read if you have a few minutes. Also supported by links. Maybe put on the kettle.

mick087

Seth Brundle wrote: »

In fairness, you did tell us that "Apparently over the next few years the fishing will improve for the UK" :rolleyes:

Yes that is fair i did say that.
Lessons have been learned.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please don't just paste links here. Post removed.

cameramonkey

https://trans.info/en/brittany-ferries-release-timetable-for-3-new-ireland-france-routes-220674

3 new ferry routes to France from Ireland.

An Ciarraioch

I thought Cork-Roscoff was around for years, but presumably it used to only start in March before? Edit - seems brought forward seven weeks, and an excellent summary of the total European routes here:

https://www.niferry.co.uk/brittany-ferries-confirms-new-brexit-bypass-routes/

BonnieSituation

I told ya wrote: »

I agree with your comments.

IMV I don't think a boarder poll would pass in the ROI. Would be very easy to campaign against. Just go through the RTE archives and bombard people with all the events since 1969. Also, the T&Cs of a poll would be very difficult to agree. Would it be 50% of the poll +1. Absolute nightmare stuff.

I may have posted before but IMV it's worth repeating, the Ulster Unionists really need to read what the Late CC O'Brien wrote, something along the lines: the Ulster Unionists need to realise that their last battle will not be with the Irish Unionists but with the English Unionists.

Who's gonna campaign against a UI in the South?

J Mysterio wrote: »

As far as I'm aware, this is set out in the GFA - a simple majority.

The GFA sets it out as a simple majority (50%+1).

The Unionist veto is gone.

BonnieSituation

Deleted User wrote: »

The 49.9% group will not accept the outcome, just look how vocal the 48% are in the UK after the Brexit vote!


In reality for it to be credible, it would need around 60%

They'll have to. That's democracy. We all signed up to it.

The unionist veto is gone.

BonnieSituation

I told ya wrote: »

40% is still a sizeable minority.

Maybe somewhat academic as I feel that it would not pass in the ROI. Very easy to run the No campaign in the ROI and coupled with the media blitz from the No campaign in NI, I can't see a majority, even a simple one of 50% +1.

Who's running this No campaign in the South?

Kevin Myers? Ruth Dudley Edwards? Michael McDowell?