Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote:

The 49.9% group will not accept the outcome, just look how vocal the 48% are in the UK after the Brexit vote!


In reality for it to be credible, it would need around 60%

A fraction of the 49.9 won't accept the outcome. Most will get on with it as they did after the GFA referendum. So much so, it's biggest detractors are now calling on it to protect them.

yagan

yagan wrote: »

What can Britain provide us that can't be supplied frictionlessly in the single market?

Even on the issue of RHD cars I can see the old used Jap import market coming back. In fact any Irish car dealer with brains should be making connections with Maltese and Cypriot dealers for selling on used Irish cars.

I doubt that there are many Irish dealers selling secondhand cars to the UK, usually they're importing them.

yagan

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's not so much what they can provide us. It's more about Ireland maintaining its exports to the UK as much as possible while pursuing new opportunities within the EU. It doesn't have to be either/or.

Compared to the single market the UK is a riskier secondary market, and actually behind accessing China in importance.

Irish exporters to the UK took a massive hit when GBP devalued in 08/09, forcing them to look beyond Britain. As an export market the UK of declining importance compared to the EU single market and also the growing purchasing power of Asian consumers.

I told ya

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Who's gonna campaign against a UI in the South?





The GFA sets it out as a simple majority (50%+1).

The Unionist veto is gone.

I can only speak for myself. Serious question: do you seriously think that we can come to an accommodation with a large proportion of the NI people?

As someone who has worked in NI and has relations in NI, it's going to be a tall order. Not saying it's impossible but you'll have your work cut out for you.

listermint

I told ya wrote: »

I can only speak for myself. Serious question: do you seriously think that we can come to an accommodation with a large proportion of the NI people?

As someone who has worked in NI and has relations in NI, it's going to be a tall order. Not saying it's impossible but you'll have your work cut out for you.

Economics has always trumped everything else in NI. Money talks. Simple as that. That will never change. Everything else is just headline grabbing .

I told ya

listermint wrote: »

Economics has always trumped everything else in NI. Money talks. Simple as that. That will never change. Everything else is just headline grabbing .

Ah yes, the old crown and half crown line. More than a grain of truth in that alright.

Now, don't be giving them the impression that we're loaded.

BonnieSituation

I told ya wrote: »

I can only speak for myself. Serious question: do you seriously think that we can come to an accommodation with a large proportion of the NI people?

As someone who has worked in NI and has relations in NI, it's going to be a tall order. Not saying it's impossible but you'll have your work cut out for you.

We've already come to that accommodation. It's the GFA.

fash

mick087 wrote: »

The simple fact they can now choose there own destiny.
.

No they can't: they've been told what to do by the US, China, EU, Russia - and very shortly most of the Pacific coast countries.
You think the UK signed up to the NI protocol willingly?

yagan

Deleted User wrote: »

I doubt that there are many Irish dealers selling secondhand cars to the UK, usually they're importing them.

Where did I say there would be?

I told ya

BonnieSituation wrote: »

We've already come to that accommodation. It's the GFA.

I accept it's an accommodation, but only within the ballpark of the GFA. I would not be of the view that one equals the other ie acceptance of the GFA equals acceptance of a UI. Not by a long shot is the GFA 'that accommodation'.

Back then people voted against the GFA. I don't know what % of the NI vote would be required to make it work. I would argue it would need to be very high.

A UI is a totally different ballpark.

Zubeneschamali

listermint wrote: »

Economics has always trumped everything else in NI. Money talks. Simple as that.

In a few years, the UK will be 10% behind where they would have been if they had remained. This may not be obvious in most of the UK, but Omagh vs Monaghan, Newry vs Dundalk, even Belfast vs Cork will make it clearer.

Thargor

SNIP. Stop dumping links please.

PeadarCo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

In a few years, the UK will be 10% behind where they would have been if they had remained. This may not be obvious in most of the UK, but Omagh vs Monaghan, Newry vs Dundalk, even Belfast vs Cork will make it clearer.

Assuming money talks is very dangerous. If it just the economics, Brexit would never have happened. Even with Brexit turning into the predicted disaster, the UK is unlikely to rejoin the EU in the short term.

An Ciarraioch

The DUP throw their toys out of the pram, and hope Johnson will throw them a bone:

https://twitter.com/endamcclafferty/status/1356650323792789506

forgottenhills

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

In a few years, the UK will be 10% behind where they would have been if they had remained. This may not be obvious in most of the UK, but Omagh vs Monaghan, Newry vs Dundalk, even Belfast vs Cork will make it clearer.

Is this a joke? Have you been in Belfast and Cork? Does Brexit come with a nuclear holocaust or some such?

In fact have you been down into rural towns in Ireland anytime over the last 10 years? Those that don't have a strong tourist element to their appeal are dying on their feet, it's actually depressing. To say that there are going to look great in comparison to northern towns in 2010 is fatuous.

Leroy42

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The DUP throw their toys out of the pram, and hope Johnson will throw them a bone:

https://twitter.com/endamcclafferty/status/1356650323792789506

I don't understand this at all. Johnson delivered a great deal, it was voted on by the HoC, and Johnson was given a mandate in 2019 to Get Brexit done.

Surely NI are no looking to overturn the democratic will of the people of the UK?

Calling into question the very deal that the PM and government lauded as brilliant only weeks ago?

CelticRambler

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

an excellent summary of the total European routes here:

https://www.niferry.co.uk/brittany-ferries-confirms-new-brexit-bypass-routes/

To emphasise the "Brexit dividend" and contrast with intra-EU trade, here's the summary lifted from the link above:

These new services come on the back of significant additional Ireland – EU capacity as a result of Brexit. Developments in the ferry sector since late December include;

Brittany Ferries: In addition to the new services described above linking Roscoff and St Malo with Cork and Rosslare, Rosslare – Cherbourg route began two months early.
Stena Line: RoRo STENA FORETELLER added to Rosslare – Cherbourg route. Additional weekend Dublin – Cherbourg roundtrip. Temporary switching of the E-Flexer ships STENA EMBLA then STENA ESTRID to Rosslare – Cherbourg service.
Irish Ferries: EPSILON Switched with W.B. YEATS to provide more driver-capacity on the Dublin – Cherbourg service. EPSILSON used on a weekend Dublin – Cherbourg sailing instead of Dublin – Holyhead.
DFDS: Six roundtrips per week Rosslare – Dunkerque service launched using VISBY, DROTTEN and KERRY.
CLdN (Cobelfret): Cork – Zeebrugge frequency doubled to two sailings each way per week.

Additionally, the following Container services have been added;

Samskip: Direct Dublin – Amsterdam Container service using RMS Veritas.
Containerships: Additional direct Dublin – Rotterdam roundtrip added.
Eucon: An additional ship. MUSIC. placed on Benelux – Ireland services.

To those waiting to see how it all plays out: spot the difference - in GB, trucks are parked up for a week or sent home empty, businesses are strangled by customs clearance declarations, logistics companies are opting out of crossing the Channel, orders are being cancelled or returned to sender ... On the EU side, eight maritime companies have started up or expanded their services almost overnight, none of which involve any changes to existing customs or import/export procedures or the businesses using them.

CelticRambler

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

We have links with other countries. However, by a country mile, our strongest links across a broad spectrum are with the UK.

Ireland has a clear opportunity here and now. We can continue to maintain close links with the UK (especially economic) while forging closer links with other European nations via the EU. This could be the best of both worlds if we are strategic.

I would argue that most of our supposedly strongest links with GB are on the back of the waves of migration to the neighbouring island, especially in the 1920s, 1950s and 1980s. I would argue that there's a direct correlation between this strengthening of the Anglo-Irish bond and the determination of "the plain people of Ireland" to fit themselves into the mould created for them by the British administration throughout the previous century (e.g. by learning English at the expense of Irish); and accentuated in recent times by the wholesale buy-in to English broadcast, print and social media.

There are, unquestionably, clear opportunities for Ireland and the Irish to exploit across Europe, filling the space left by the British, but I'm not convinced that there's enough motivation at the level of SMEs or in education for it to make a meaningful impact. Happy to be proven wrong, though ...

mick087 wrote: »

This will be temporary and lets hope that the UK leaving the EU proves to be better or as good as being in the EU for the UK.

It's not temporary. Or at least, there are still a few temporary measures in place, but when they go, it'll only get worse for GB because they are measures put/left in place by the EU for its own benefit. As the shellfish article showed (linked twice earlier today) British politicians are staying these obstacles are temporary, but they're not. They were temporary, until Johnson made them 100%-here-to-stay-for-the-foreseeable-future when he signed the TCA on Christmas Eve. That is the new permanent arrangement.

Capt'n Midnight

So the plan was to import 15 million bees from Italy to Northern Ireland and then re-export them to the UK.

There's at least one problem though New laws which came into effect after the UK left the single market in January say only queen bees can be imported into Great Britain.

Look on the bright side, there might be problems hiring enough fruit pickers if all the plants get pollinated.

Beechwoodspark

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The DUP throw their toys out of the pram, and hope Johnson will throw them a bone:

https://twitter.com/endamcclafferty/status/1356650323792789506

An e petition. Wow

CelticRambler

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

So the plan was to import 15 million bees from Italy to Northern Ireland and then re-export them to the UK.

There's at least one problem though New laws which came into effect after the UK left the single market in January say only queen bees can be imported into Great Britain.

In an effort to avoid the import ban and abide by the new laws, he arranged for the bees to arrive via Northern Ireland in April, but said he has been told they may be destroyed if he tries.

Whodathunkit? English businesses trying to use NI as a backdoor to get around import restrictions ... Good job the EU doesn't know about this kind of thing - they might be tempted to invoke Article 16 if ever they needed to control exports to the UK. :rolleyes:

Capt'n Midnight

Remember all the guff about the UK being able to trade on WTO terms ?

Losses to Scotch whisky exports have reached £500m because the UK government is "unwilling" to comply with World Trade Organisation rules on aerospace subsidies.

RobMc59

CelticRambler wrote: »

Whodathunkit? English businesses trying to use NI as a backdoor to get around import restrictions ... Good job the EU doesn't know about this kind of thing - they might be tempted to invoke Article 16 if ever they needed to control exports to the UK. :rolleyes:

Two points here.It will be interesting to see if the UK show some common sense ,after all anything which helps the environment and encourages this type of cottage industry is a good thing.
Secondly,I don`t know how much fifteen million bees cost but I bet the Italian supplier is`nt too pleased at the prospect of loosing this business in the future.

beggars_bush

RobMc59 wrote: »

Two points here.It will be interesting to see if the UK show some common sense ,after all anything which helps the environment and encourages this type of cottage industry is a good thing.
Secondly,I don`t know how much fifteen million bees cost but I bet the Italian supplier is`nt too pleased at the prospect of loosing this business in the future.

Put the hives in armagh and let them fly over

Who would have thought there were strict rules for everything?

Sam Russell

RobMc59 wrote: »

Two points here.It will be interesting to see if the UK show some common sense ,after all anything which helps the environment and encourages this type of cottage industry is a good thing.
Secondly,I don`t know how much fifteen million bees cost but I bet the Italian supplier is`nt too pleased at the prospect of loosing this business in the future.

The rules are there to control the spread of disease, parasites, and rogue varieties of bee. SPS matters ae important.

FrancieBrady

Sam Russell wrote: »

The rules are there to control the spread of disease, parasites, and rogue varieties of bee. SPS matters ae important.

If they are prepared to do that what else will they try. NI will jeopardise our integrity with regard to the EU if they treat the agreement with this contempt. A month in and they are already whinging about and trying to get around rules.

Sam Russell

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If they are prepared to do that what else will they try. NI will jeopardise our integrity with regard to the EU if they treat the agreement with this contempt. A month in and they are already whinging about and trying to get around rules.

Have you heard of fuel laundering?

This is just a bit of smuggling - endemic with any border.

Igotadose

beggars_bush wrote: »

Put the hives in armagh and let them fly over

Who would have thought there were strict rules for everything?

Varroa, the plague of Irish beekeeping likely came via hives from England.

Rules for everything are expected in rule-of-law society. Unfortunately we live in the RoI where laws are the basis of negotiation for everyone else, not for you.

yagan

CelticRambler wrote: »

There are, unquestionably, clear opportunities for Ireland and the Irish to exploit across Europe, filling the space left by the British, but I'm not convinced that there's enough motivation at the level of SMEs or in education for it to make a meaningful impact. Happy to be proven wrong, though ...

Even with GB as our nearest neighbour trade naturally follows the path of least resistance so our continental exposure will grow as the Irish Sea trade lessons.

When Lidl and Aldi entered Ireland most of their stuff was imported, whereas now their Irish operation is a net exporter to the continent. Irish group Musgraves which uses 100% Irish suppliers now has a distribution centre in Spain with plans for more; and that's not counting their supply deal with Alibaba for the Chinese market.

The fact that English is the most common second language in the EU even reduces the need for Irish businesses to offer multilingual portals!

GB is now a secondary market for Ireland.

FrancieBrady

Sam Russell wrote: »

Have you heard of fuel laundering?

This is just a bit of smuggling - endemic with any border.

So, where d you draw the line? When it is so endemic it jepordises our position and relationship with the rest of the EU?
Start as you mean to go on. No exceptions.