Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199146#Comment_119199146

I’m not going to go line by line through it for you. I know it’s difficult for Irish people to accept but you must see that your account ends BEFORE the current proposed legislation. You simply don’t see what is the situation NOW.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199148#Comment_119199148

What would you consider evidence? I mean if the EU concluding a WA on foot of the Liverpool agreement isn’t evidence that the Irish govt was fooled and believed BJ would honour it when he has announced legislation to repudiate it at will there is no evidence you will accept. Again, Liverpool, WA, GE, 80 seat majority, undo the negotiating process imposed by the EU, impose preferred Tory/ERG position. If Varadkar and the govt were so wise to the Tories then all they had to do was wait. HoC was in gridlock. Varadkar trusted BJ to honour Liverpool, EU followed with WA. Sold. Down. The. River.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199289#Comment_119199289

The Reuters piece just says turning point and nothing else.

Johnson won an 80-seat majority by offering to "Get Brexit done". Alleged concessions from Leo Varadkar mean absolutely nothing. What Johnson needed was rid of the DUP. He got that.

I consider something factual as evidence, not condescension, sneering or desperation. Whenever you're ready.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199293#Comment_119199293

You have been given facts. Unfortunately they don’t suit you and I, unlike many in politics and their attendants, don’t have others. I didn’t say “concessions” from Varadkar. I said he trusted Johnson and did the deal. That deal as Barnier said was the turning point on the way to the WA. The WA was necessary for the HoC before an election would be granted. Varadkar trusting Johnson was the key. There are only so many times facts can be repeated. You don’t like them. You don’t like the way history is likely to view Varadkar over this. That’s down to you. There’s no point me saying anything else to you.

When might this get voted on? It was meant to be last Thursday, and then this Monday, but now it's something about when the DUP get back into Stormont?

Leroy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199141#Comment_119199141

You are perfectly correct. Never to get one over the Irish. Simply that Varadkar was sold. Down. The. River.

You are making the assertion that Johnson tricked Varadkar, thus getting one over the Irish, to get to this point.

What point to you think Johnson has got to?

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199303#Comment_119199303

No, I've just been given your spin on a Wikipedia quote. The deal was something the EU was happy with. The turning point was stabbing the DUP in the back.

This is just desperation to portray Johnson as some sort of master political strategist combined with the usual chicken little narrative. Since you've no evidence for this, leaving it there might be best.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199470#Comment_119199470

No Leroy. “Thus getting one over the Irish” can’t smuggle you being perfectly incorrect back into being correct. I tire quickly of what passes for political discourse which is really an endless smokescreen for a withdrawal.

Johnson has got further down the road of Brexit and political survIval. The habits of a lifetime die hard and he’s probably lining up the next affair or “book deal”. It’s a very interesting point now in Anglo Irish relations. FG are a quasi unionist party, FF under Martin heading rapidly in the same direction; as pro British and pro unionist a govt as we have ever had. I wonder if they are actually capable of joining up the dots.

And it’s irrelevant to the Tory Brexit. In that world, the UK is a great power and Ireland is an irrelevant country in its sphere of influence that will be brought to heel and take what it is given. The current and historical parallels should give pause for thought in FG and FF. Slán.

Kermit.de.frog

I see the usual continuing with same old "The UK hasn't done anything yet" routine.

But they have. Their behaviour has been consistently destabilising to this island since 2016 damaging relationships, leading to massive uncertainty, and sucking up a huge amount of government bandwidth here just trying to maintain stability.

What is the point of the EU if for us, in this country, it's just the case of the good old days in terms of how we are treated and disrespected by our neighbour constantly harassed and destabilised?

Are people content for this to go on like this forever? Are we to wait until the British public wake up, is that it? Are we at their behest?

The EU needs to start showing claws fast. Tell the British public and politicians what the consequences are going to be if this goes through.

Lay it out for them.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199303#Comment_119199303

What do you think BJ actually gained from this? Okay he won a large majority in the subsequent election on the basis of an "Oven Ready Deal" but this has since proven to be anything but oven ready, as evidenced by the fact that he has been trying to change the deal since he signed up to it. We haven't yet seen the reaction of the electorate to the fact that he openly lied to them about the deal and according to the polls, it wont be favourable to him.

The only thing that has happened in the meantime is that the UK economy has stagnated while businesses wait for clarity on their future trading situation. There are signs that opinion in the UK is changing, they are feeling the pinch and options which were previously discounted are being discussed. Clearly the current situation is not good for the UK and allowing it to continue will only cause more damage.

The fact is that the UK is in a position of weakness now. There is a ratified deal in place which they want to change but the EU is unwilling to change. The EU just have to keep pointing to the accepted deal and say "either you honour this or we start legal proceedings". That just leaves the UK in limbo for several more years, in which time the UK will likely continue to wave through EU goods so no harm to EU.

The EU was playing with the strongest hand from the beginning and now the UK has revealed its cards. Their cards are crap but they are still trying to bluff. The idea of BJ selling Varadkar down the river does not reflect the current reality.

roosterman71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199563#Comment_119199563

Christ. A lot to unpick there. So Leo and Boris had a chat and cleared an impasse. A deal was struck. Boris was over the moon - and won a huge majority in the election. The EU, not ones to sign diddly squat unless they were happy, signed. It wasn't Leo that trusted Boris, it was international agreements with signatures. Trusting Boris had nothing to do with it.

And now we're hearing that FF/FG are Unionists! Holy smokes.

Look, the fact remains that the UK signed a deal. And now, they don't like it. Why? No one seems to really know. NI is doing well, the second most prosperous region after London. The NIP has little to no impact on GB. So why are they ripping it up? Why aren't they ripping up something related to Dover where actual carnage is seen? The answer is that the NIP is a handy thing to use to show that the UK are sticking it to the big bad EU, where the only ones to be hurt in that are those in NI who no one in GB gives two hoots about.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199578#Comment_119199578

What do you expect when you've been desperately hoping for Ireland to get screwed over in one form or another for half a decade?

The EU is standing firm and respecting the rules. The UK is doing nothing but bluster which you're promoting here.

By what measurable metric has Ireland been destabilised? Sources please.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199578#Comment_119199578

The EU is poised to take legal action; but yes KErmit, I'm afraid "they haven't done anything yet" applies because this bill hasn't become law yet. Until it does, any reaction will be punitive against something that doesn't exist in law yet; the UK may not care but institutionally the EU depends upon it. There's a non-zero chance this bill gets defeated in the House of Commons, in which case you'll have to find something else in 6 months to rattle the cages and declare the sky is falling about.

Geopolitical blowback alone could yet kill this bill before it even reaches a point where it's voted by Members.

As ever, you offer no actual solutions, or opinions, just the usual anti-EU rhetoric and baraely disguised glee at the prospect your Confirmation Bias is proven, and the Big Bad EU kicks Ireland out of the SM.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jun/13/uk-risks-brexit-eu-trade-war-as-northern-ireland-protocol-bill-is-published

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199595#Comment_119199595

Utter nonsense. I'm calling for action FROM THE EU to protect this country which is being intentionally destabilised.

You see what you want to see as usual.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199208#Comment_119199208

IMO They (Varadkar etc.) didn't understand then that UK govt. had started to revert towards historical type as regards Ireland and NI. At the moment we're just a handy and useful weapon to hurt the EU, or try & get what they want (unliklely to work but Brexit is failing, and what else do they have?). You don't worry about damaging a club too much when you're wielding it to attack someone.

I'm not sure if it has fully sunk in yet with current govt. either, as every time UK is about to pull some shenanigans like this the first instinct is to scurry off to Westminister + UK media and beg + appeal to a desire for preserving good relations with Ireland or to protect NI from harm that seems to me to have disappeared some time ago!

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199635#Comment_119199635

The EU is lining up Legal Action for when and if the bill becomes law. As it hasn't happened yet it's academic what the EU does, beyond putting pressure on the UK to realise the ramifications of moving ahead with it are.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199635#Comment_119199635

So Ireland hasn't been destabilised for years. This is more nonsense you're perpetuating.

Thanks for clearing that up.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199623#Comment_119199623

There are two arms to this. As you've pointed out, it's extremely likely that the bill will be defeated. It's only intended to glue the Tory party back together. Nothing else. We're back to meaningful vote territory but somehow even more ridiculous.

Secondly, there's the international reaction. The US aren't going to appreciate their crowning diplomatic achievement being undermined. More than that, the trade deal allows the EU to unilaterally suspend parts or even all of it if the UK breaks it which is what this bill is intended to do. This would turn the UK into an international pariah second only to Russia.

Johnson's VONC disaster means that MP's are more rebellious and seditious than ever. He's done. The EU know that there's no point in pre-emptively retaliating while their enemy might just stab himself that little too deeply. Hence, they've adopted the disposition of an exhausted parent.

But yes, six years on and the Irexiters are desperately foaming for their own country to be screwed over. Even still. Curious.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199635#Comment_119199635

In the context of you wanting to be out of the EU and Single Market, these posts are wild to read.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199208#Comment_119199208

There was absolutely no possibility of a government of national unity. Lib Dems and Tories would never back Labour and definitely not Corbyns Labour.

As things stand the EU got a deal that suited Ireland and its a deal that still stands because Johnson hasnt touched it despite all his talk.

timetogo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199588#Comment_119199588

We do know why they don't like it. The DUP. There is no logical, measurable reason but that doesn't matter to the DUP. There is a "border" for goods between GB & NI so that's the straw that breaks the camels back for them. They won't be happy until the checks are between Ireland and NI. It doesn't matter if it affects their economy or that NI is the region recovering the most. If they're not attached to the millstone of GB it's not good enough for them.

That's why the problem is so hard to resolve. If you were dealing with a pragmatic, intelligent party they'd see sense and compromise. The DUP will only compromise if you agree to their demands 100% :)

Although I don't really know why the Westminster government cares, they don't usually about Northern Ireland. Maybe it's a Boris thing and it's just a long line of distractions that he needs from the rest of his government.

Hermy

"The EU needs to start showing claws fast. Tell the British public and politicians what the consequences are going to be if this goes through."

Ah come one now Kermit, do you honestly believe the EU showing its claws is going to have the desired effect on public opinion in the UK?

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199578#Comment_119199578

The EU doesn’t need to do anything. Nor Ireland.

Post-Covid recovery stats, inflation rates, stagflation opinions and GDP forecasts are doing all the requisite telling on the thinking British public and politicians.

For the harder-of-thinking remainder, long-missing products on shelves, absent/unfilled staff, cancelled holiday flights and hours-long airport/train station queues at passport control (a new thing for the British public, and only very recent at that, after 2 years of travel restrictions) do another sort of telling.

The longer this goes on, and the harder it gets turbocharged by Johnson & Co. with this NIP Bill and the like, the worse it gets for UK plc as a whole and all who depend on it, and the more glaring that differential with the rest of the world gets. This is why the tone is starting to change in the UK: a threshold has been reached with enough of the population, deciders, investors, politicians, etc., that Johnson and his followers have now entered ever-diminishing returns territory over Brexit lies and gaslighting, never to come out of it again.

So yes, today as in 2019, all you need is patience and to let the Single Market trading do its thing.

Oh, and a little bit more abnegation, if Johnson and the ERG are still getting your blood pressure up with their antics at this very late stage.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199862#Comment_119199862

Kermit knows full well its not in the EUs interest to do it yet. Boris needs a new enemy to distract with and until the EU actually take action all hes got is boogeyman stories which people are believing less and less. Once the EU take action he can point and shout "see i told you so something something sovereignty". This will flop as their plans always have and the EU will be still watching the tories make a mess again without having had to move a muscle.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199862#Comment_119199862

I recall Kermit expressing rage at the EU becoming a country and devouring its members. Now he wants it to start telling European nations what to do.

It's a perfect example of a bad faith argument without principle.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199588#Comment_119199588

“Cleared an impasse”. You’re funny! And now despite Michel Barnier declaring Liverpool was the breakthrough Roosterman can dismiss it with a magisterial wave of the hand. Very Tory gesture!

Anyway, let’s get to the unionism of FG and MM’s FF. Anyone who has watched John Bruton, Charlie Flanagan, the attempts to suppress the 1916 commemoration, the attempts to commemorate the RIC, the airbrushing of Irelands colonial history, MM floating the idea contrary to democratic ideals, equality, the GFA that unionism should effectively have a veto in any vote on unity, the millions flowing to unionist groups while children with scoliosis wait … but Holy Smokes! Put up the cardboard cutout of Collins, speak together at Beal na Blath. It’s very very funny.

Enzokk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119200006#Comment_119200006

Not really sure what you are trying to argue here. Your initial point was that Johnson had got one over Varadkar by going back on the agreements Johnson signed with the EU. You are basically blaming Varadkar for Johnson being a liar. But he didn't just lie to Varadkar, but to the EU and all its leaders as well when he signed the NIP.

The rest of your post seems to be deflection and trying to save face for being questioned what you meant. It's okay to be wrong sometimes. I agree Varadkar was hoodwinked by Johnson, but other than tyrants you do not expect any leader to act like this. Your post seems to have a whiff of blaming the victim. She deserved it because of the way she dressed.

Imagine Varadkar coming out with "While Mr. Johnson's idea seems plausible, I just don't trust him."

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119200073#Comment_119200073

My meaning is both perfectly clear and perfectly unwelcome. The deflection is claims such as your own that it is not. Varadkar bears responsibility for Liverpool. Even you can see that Johnson played Varadkar. That was the decisive moment. If you disagree take it up with Barnier.

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119200162#Comment_119200162

You haven't expressed your meaning very well.

We either accept the reasonable offer that we got with the UK or are actually being unreasonable negotiators if we won't accept any deal from the UK. In addition we lost nothing. Either they stick to the deal and we get a deal they like or they don't and we are back in the same place. In fact it now means we have a deal of what is reasonable for both sides as the basis for future talks.

Leroy42

I think the confusion, certainly mine, is coming from your trite line about 'Sold down the River'.

So to help me understand what it is you are actually trying to say, perhaps you could explain who has been sold down the river? Varadkar, Ireland, the EU? One? All?

And to what end?