Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119203479#Comment_119203479

You are aware that as things stand the UK is continuing to actually abide by the NIP and WA and the British reneging on the deal (if they actually do) just reverts us back to where we were 2 years ago. The UK have gained nothing from any of this and ultimately neither Ireland or the EU have lost anything as the baseline is a reversion to what the UK were threatening (and continually backing away from) to begin with.

ancapailldorcha

Jesus, this almost seems like parody:

https://twitter.com/AntonSpisak/status/1536693250857254912

They just keep embarrassing themselves.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119203583#Comment_119203583

“All and sundry”. LOL. Typical of deliberately twisting what was written. Does it ever cross your mind how obvious you are?

54and56

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119203712#Comment_119203712

I long to have your insight and crystal ball capability Diespies......................honestly.

Obviously not is the answer to my previous question. No you don’t because you wouldn’t like it. But for you, here’s one to watch very closely: the US investigation into UAP. It’s going to get very messy.

peter kern

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119200917#Comment_119200917

and of course this is the bread games the uk is playing. apart from kermit the clown most here know this is bread and games as at the end of the day the uk does not want to pay the price for it but at the same time the eu can not do much either as the only way to protect the single market would be to move the controls from belfast around the border and this is not going to happen either

so no the uk will not follow through but neither would the eu stop the brexit agreement as this would not solve the issue in NI so i guess nobody takes that thread from the eu really serious as well.

the eu will calmly play its game and boards will go crazy after every post from kermit the clown for a few more years . that is the only thing that is certain.... its kind of funny that we tell kermit the eu needs to keep calm and yet get triggered by boris and kermit every time lol

54and56

Taken from the Times today

54and56

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119203852#Comment_119203852

What's the UAP?

looksee

The only thing I can think of is unidentified aerial phenomena (previously UFOs). It can't be that, can it? Surely not?

pixelburp

Has any temperature been taken yet about the likelihood of this passing in Parliament? I'm reading that Tory MPs are keeping their heads down for now - though presumably 'til they can read the text of the thing, and its potential legality.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/14/bulk-of-tory-mps-stand-firm-behind-northern-ireland-protocol-bill

awec

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/14/boris-johnson-tells-cabinet-de-escalate-protocol-stand-off-brussels/

What a shock.

breezy1985

So now he is telling everyone to take the heat out of the fire he lit.

Maxface

Talk of it taking 18 months or so if even then to take place. I know they are at it a lot, any thought that this is in some way a placation to get the DUP into powersharing?

Sam Russell

GB£ has falling in the last month from 84p = €1 to 87p = €1.

So the markets do not like this bill and the prospect of a trade war.

CrabRevolution

You have to marvel at their neck trying the "We have to abandon the NI protocol in order to get Stormont going" excuse.

Firstly because that's effectively saying that they're conceding to blackmail and siding with the Unionists.

Secondly, say Sinn Féin tried the opposite and said they were going to boycott Stormont until the Protocol is instated and enforced in full, would the UK government then move to fully comply with the withdrawal agreement in order to get the NI Assembly going? Would they f*ck....

Seth Brundle

Tony Connelly has a great update regarding the EU's action agains the UK...

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1536997592541929474

The main points of his thread (which you should read) are:

• UK could be appearing in front of ECJ wihtin two months
• fresh legal action over UK's failure to provide border posts & staff as well as real-time reporting
• EU revealed large scale smuggling via NI (weapons, counterfeid goods, drugs, tobacco, medecines) which were destined for the EU
• UK bill would allow UK to disallow all but three elements of NIP
• EU's proposals would only require a Sainsburys truck to have 3 pages of documentation
• plus more

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119204270#Comment_119204270

This is a "both sides" argument.

The EU isn't doing anything because nothing needs to be done. Nothing needs to be done because the UK hasn't done anything. Kermit's narrative is standard Irexiter drivel designed to lay the framework for an Irexit campaign I suspect.

That's a good point from the previous page's screesnhot.

If the bill is there because of imminent peril, and the failure to form an assembly is a major part of that, how can one justify A. not immediately putting forward the bill to avoid this peril and B. asking the DUP to form the assembly before passing the bill.

Why would the bill then be needed.

Leroy42

Its not. There is no imminent peril. Stormont has been in recess before, and there was no hint of danger of immediate action for the UK government.

As with everything to do with Brexit, once one gets past the initial headlines it all falls apart.

It also raises the real possibility that SF will use this very process to push for a border poll. Simply pull out of the assembly, demand a border poll, and demand the UK government give in as otherwise there is an imminent peril. Another short sighted grab by the UK government which falls apart under the merest scrutiny

Even the sensible idea within it, green and red lanes, requires data sharing with the EU. And surely the EU would want a presence on the ground for spot checks? But the UK have refused this in the past, and refused to build the infrastructure for these new Green and Red lanes.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119205712#Comment_119205712

Well if you are on the loony tune wing of the DUP all of our souls were in imminent peril during the last Stormont closure due to Westminster unleashing gay marriages and abortions on everyone.

Sam Russell

For SF to pursue a border poll at the present time would be stupid in the extreme.

If such a border poll was proposed now, or in the near future, it would fail spectacularly because there is no popular support for it with any community in the north. It would unify the Unionist voters, it would frighten the middle ground, and many Nationalists are unsure about any benefits that would ensue from a UI. The Nationalist are not sure they belong in a UI, and Unionists feel they could not live in a UI, and are not welcome anyway.

To get a UI, SF should pursue a united NI first. They campaign as if to force a UI on the Unionists in NI against their will - not a good strategy.

They must reassure the communities (all of them) how much a UI would benefit each of them economically, socially, culturally, educationally, career prospects, etc. All the things that matter to each group should be the reason for them to vote for a UI. They should take a leaf out on the Brexit campaign and be all things to all voters. All voters should be able to feel that their prospects and values in life would benefit from a UI over their prospects while they are at the whims of a not-caring Gov led currently by a toxic Tory Party, but probably just as poor if led by a toxic Labour Party. Either case, they are just a pimple on the arse of the UK juggernaut.

If SF get a border poll and fail to get it passed, probably it puts back the UI project for a generation, but at least a decade or two.

SF should stick to the bread and butter issues by improving the daily lives of both Nationalists and Unionists, while remembering the Loyalist is more Loyal to the half-crown than the Crown - just try to make them all richer.

Leroy42

I'm not suggesting they pursue it now. But this move by HMG gives them plenty of opportunity in the future.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119205309#Comment_119205309

Read on that Irish monk Twitter that shellfish exports from NI to the EU increased by 5000% since GB shellfish exports were blocked.

Imagine the shenanigans the British would get up to with any relaxations of the NIP.

https://twitter.com/castlvillageman/status/1534848426801872896?s=20&t=sDFhFOTn-wwcdjAHI2oH8w

peter kern

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119205319#Comment_119205319

but this is not quite correct effectively the single market is already a bit compromised in ireland since brexit, as the shared checks and supposed to be shared data flow between uk and eu of goods is not happening.not a big deal as of now but the single market already is a bit compromised.

or in other words there has not been a single day the uk has implemented the ni protocol.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119206802#Comment_119206802

Wait, the UK haven't implemented the protocol? Have you a source for this?

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119206849#Comment_119206849

The old and new lawsuits from EU as a starting point.

The stalled legal action related to the UK’s unilateral extension of protocol grace periods in 2021.

The two new infringement proceedings announced on Wednesday relate to alleged UK failures around Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) checks on agri-food produce entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain and also an alleged failure to provide the EU with data on the movement of goods across the Irish Sea.

The EU is issuing formal notices of action in respect of the two new infringement proceedings.

The bloc claims the SPS checks are not being carried out properly, with insufficient staff and infrastructure in place at the border control posts at the ports in Northern Ireland.

It says the UK is also not currently sharing the trade statistics data required under the protocol.

Above is taken from here (I read it on Independent earlier but could not find the article again), that's three separate failures to implement the protocol by the UK government. The NI minister Mr Lewis also made a comment along the lines of "If we had implemented the protocol fully it would be even worse" but I can't find the citation for that one.

ancapailldorcha

Thanks. Aren't grace periods a feature already or is it the unilateral element that is the issue?

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119206949#Comment_119206949

There was an initial grace period that was then extended; that extended grace period ended but UK decided it should be extended without agreement to infinity basically. It ties back to the two new breaches by not actually implementing the controls (last time I checked the new custom locations etc. are still not in place to perform the checks).

Found the quote:

Mr Lewis accused the EU of being “disingenuous” about offering flexibilities on the protocol.

He told the BBC’s Sunday Morning programme: “What they’ve been saying consistently across the media and have been reported as saying is that they’re offering flexibilities. Well, they’re not.

“What the EU are offering is some flexibility based on a fully-implemented protocol. That would be, actually, worse than the situation we’ve got today.”

As most of Boris government not the sharpest tool in the box admitting you have not implemented what you agreed to...

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119206358#Comment_119206358

They already are I'd say. Think there was an EU report on it (the UKs partial implementation of the NI Protocol) that showed it is basically a joke.

It just hasn't come home to roost here yet (or perhaps the punchline hasn't landed if trying not to mix metaphors).

We're probably saved by fact that:

1. UK has not diverged very much from EU as regards edit sp: agriculture/food (or anything else I suppose) so far (but can't rely on this forever), and
2. Leakage is for down here I expect. It (probably) doesn't spread beyond the island.

1 and 2 are linked in that when (not if) divergance happens it creates arbitrage opportunities and it will be more worthwhile to route stuff through Ireland to get it onto the "mainland" into the bigger markets there.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119207140#Comment_119207140

'1 and 2 are linked in that when (not if) divergance happens it creates arbitrage opportunities and it will be more worthwhile to route stuff through Ireland to get it onto the "mainland" into the bigger markets there.'

I would not be too sure about that.

It is clear from trade figures and trade activity of the NI ports that significant imports are going via NI ports rather than through Dublin - presumably to avoid checks in Dublin. Movement of shellfish has increased by 50 times that proves that, with such shellfish ending up in France.

They are not testing.

I have seen British (labelled as such with a flag to prove it) beef for sale in M&S in Blackrock, Dublin. Surely that is wrong - we have more than enough native beef to not need to import beef from GB.

I have seen potatoes from UK for sale in Tescos - I thought that was not allowed either.