Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Hurrache

Yip, no surprises that the UK are bull****ting by using the excuse of Article 16 to try dig themselves out of the ****ter that they themselves signed off on, throwing a tantrum and having the breath-taking audacity to give ultimatums to the EU.

CelticRambler

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Britain fucking around again. Tony Connelly on Gove's letter to the EU:

11/ the letter sets out six demands. These actually relate to the difficulties that everyone knew existed before last Friday. However, Gove says the UK "believes that we should reach agreement this week" on the demands, ie the EU has 48 hours to agree to these.

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28/ All of which suggests - although I could well be wrong - that the UK is softening people up, and laying the ground work, to triggering Article 16

Source

Several of the issues picked out in that thread (movement of pets, sale of seed potatoes, lighter controls on meat/fish/chilled food exports) could be resolved at a stroke if the Tories u-turned on their series of decisions to write into UK law their intention to unilaterally reduce standards with no parliamentary oversight. But hey, passing a new law that says "OK, let's agree to non-regression and get ourselves "listed" would be too much of a technical solution, wouldn't it? Can't be messing around with technicalities, now, can we - they cause so much trouble.

Nody

Hurrache wrote: »

Yip, no surprises that the UK are bull****ting by using the excuse of Article 16 to try dig themselves out of the ****ter that they themselves signed off on, throwing a tantrum and having the breath-taking audacity to give ultimatums to the EU.

Boris and UK keep making them and EU keeps ignoring them and UK does what it always does; pretend they never made the ultimatum in the first place and don't know what you are talking about.

BlitzKrieg

mick087 wrote: »

Everyone knows MEPs have no real power.
The power is with the EU commission and you full way know this.

Its less they have no real power and more people (especially those in british politics) dont understand the power meps hold.

Why is it not possible for a sitting MEP to be elected for the role of a commissioner?
What scares the EU commission about its citizens electing commissioners and holding them to account?

To answer both, The EU doesn't select the commissioners, the individual governments of the member states do and each member state can select it's commissioner any damn way it wants. For the sake of conveniance pretty much all of them just let the current government pick. The UK prior to leaving just tended to pluck someone from the house of lords.

We can have a referendum tomorrow to have it that an irish commissioner must be subject to a vote in the Dail or even some form of a direct election process*

The EU Commission President is the only one not selected by their member state, they are nominated based on the results of the European election and are from the party which got the most seats in European parliament and gets a majority vote in the European council (the directly elected leaders of the members states)

The EU only gets to choose what role the other commissioners fill,


*Though the European parliament will actually veto any irish commissioner elected on a national platform. Someone openly getting elected as the irish commissioner and then declaring they will do X Y Z *for* ireland will be a quick veto by the european parliament. (Oh look MEP powers!)
Again i ask who's interest is this unelected EU organisation serving?

The UK with its unelected monarch upper house etc is prime example why the EU unelected organisation needs to be more democratic and answerable to its citizens and not itself.

Thats why we have the European Council. For all this talk of democratic, people seem to forget the European Union is a union of actual countries, the power the EU wields is primarily kept in the hands of the governments and heads of states of those nationally elected governments via the European Council. When people talk about making the EU more democratic you are much more talking about taking away the sovereign power of the individual member states.

And yet people will talk about both in the same breath and not realise they are eating their own tail.

The Commission is over rated in its power. It's actually quite limited in the areas it can act individually, in a lot of cases it needs permission from the European Council first, such as this case, The council agreed and gave the commission the lead in both the Brexit negotiations and the covid Vaccine response.

Power was given to the commission by the council and if the commission proves inadequate to handle it, the council will simply not give that power out and keep the commission limited to its powers laid out in the treaties.

If you want to keep the commission in check you put pressure on your national leader.

Thats how it's designed, the biggest crime most ministers in Europe (and especially the UK) ever pulled off is creating the impression that they have no input at what happens in the EU and it's some mythical 3rd group. That they can tell you that their hands were tied as it was decided by the EU

it's bullsh*t.

always has been.

CelticRambler

The way Johnson was talking today, and with this stick-waving letter from Gove, it wouldn't surprise me if the Tories do something really stupid in the next few weeks to keep a lid on whatever's going on in the paramilitary wing of the DUP, as a result of which the EU will suspend the application of TCA immediately (which I'm sure they can do with impunity, seeing as it hasn't been ratified by the EP yet). Perhaps a taste of No Deal/WTO/no transitional mitigation is what Johnson & Co. need to help them understand how modern international diplomacy works?

Leroy42

What are the implications of the UK triggering Art 16?

MrMusician18

Leroy42 wrote: »

What are the implications of the UK triggering Art 16?

A full blown diplomatic crisis.

yagan

Leroy42 wrote: »

What are the implications of the UK triggering Art 16?

Perhaps it will realign GB with NI and GB businesses who've been losing hand over fist would be glad and the Tories could blame the threat of Loyalist paramilitaries for Brexit suspended.

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

What are the implications of the UK triggering Art 16?

It'll be an admission to the world that (a) they signed up to two successive agreements in bad faith; and (b) even with years to prepare for it, they were unable to manage their own internal affairs and had to push the Big Red Button within weeks of getting what they'd proclaimed - and ratified - as a great deal.

In the meantime, Sammy Wilson will be able to eat all the Scottish fish he could ever hope for.

BlitzKrieg

mick087 wrote: »

The EU has its own president we its citizens won't elect,

As mentioned no it doesnt, there are presidents for the council and commission, but there is no individual with any sort of executive power in the EU. The Irish president holds more power then all of the EU presidents combined, so this is a phrase praying on people who's knowledge of the president has been the mostly fictional impression we have of the US president from films and tv.

it has a foreign minister we won't elect, and a military function.

Closer to a foreign ambassador then a minister and when was the last time you elected one of them.

As for the military function that's under a triple lock system entirely in control of the Irish, the EU military cant be formed without unanimous council backing. Irish council member (the Taoiseach) cant give their backing to forming the military as it is in our constitution that they cant no matter what. So nope, no EU wide military.

They are creating a federal Europe run by people we don't elect.
You and I are citizens of that state whether we wanted it or not.

they they they they always with the f*cking they. Half of the European Union's bodies are made up of our nationally elected leaders. three quarters of them got directly elected in a democratic election of some sort. The last quarter is formed of the basis of the other 3/4s (parliament elections and chosen and by council members and then voted on by both)

THERE IS NO THEY!

ancapailldorcha

Mod: As noted above, please take the discussion of whether or not the EU is a democratic entity to a new thread.

10000maniacs

Sam Russell wrote: »

Q: What is the difference between a [FTA with no tariffs and no quotas] and a [Customs Union and the Single Market]?

Ans from a Brexiteer: Sovereignty.

Ans from a fisherman: Rotting fish and bankruptcy.

Ans from a shellfish dealer: No exports and bankruptcy.

Ans from a Welsh sheep farmer: No exports and bankruptcy.

Ans from an EU truck driver: Mansfield airport for three days - and I am not coming back.

Ans from Holyhead: What happened all the trucks and ferries?

It depends on who you ask. Happy Brexiteers appear to have gone to ground.

But I voted Brexit for my family. (They are literally saying that)

tubercolossus

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Britain fucking around again. Tony Connelly on Gove's letter to the EU:

11/ the letter sets out six demands. These actually relate to the difficulties that everyone knew existed before last Friday. However, Gove says the UK "believes that we should reach agreement this week" on the demands, ie the EU has 48 hours to agree to these.

---

28/ All of which suggests - although I could well be wrong - that the UK is softening people up, and laying the ground work, to triggering Article 16

Source

To me, this is tantamount to the UK saying to the EU: "You admitted that you were thinking of stealing from my sweetshop, but you changed your mind. However, now I want you to let me come around and burgle your house."

20silkcut

MrMusician18 wrote: »

A full blown diplomatic crisis.

Serious crisis for the Irish government.
What is the next move if Boris goes ahead?
Does this put the hard border back on the table?

An Ciarraioch

We held our nerves for four years during the Brexit negotiations, so time to call Johnson's bluff again.

Hodors Appletart

20silkcut wrote: »

Does this puts the hard border back on the table?

it does, but if the uk play silly with it (ie say "we aren't putting up a border") it means anything can go into NI unchecked, but the EU will insist everything coming into Ireland is checked, so queues on the NI side into the Republic, but free flowing goods into the UK side.

Won't take long to fix that.

Would the republican paramilitaries attack EU border posts?

Is there a threat of such?

FrancieBrady

20silkcut wrote: »

Serious crisis for the Irish government.
What is the next move if Boris goes ahead?
Does this put the hard border back on the table?

Not if the EU stick to their guns. A lot of sabre rattling going on here. The UK doesn't have a better solution at the end of the day.

tubercolossus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not if the EU stick to their guns. A lot of sabre rattling going on here. The UK doesn't have a better solution at the end of the day.

The EU have had four years of this. They know Johnson is a blowhard who hates making hard decisions. He'll take the easy way out sooner or later.

20silkcut

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not if the EU stick to their guns. A lot of sabre rattling going on here. The UK doesn't have a better solution at the end of the day.

Would joe Biden enter the fray if this arose too?

murphaph

If the protocol collapses the entire agreement should be revoked and full and hard border controls in Calais should come into force.

The Brits are slippery eels.

tubercolossus

20silkcut wrote: »

Would joe Biden enter the fray if this arose too?

I'm sure Dublin will make sure he finds out.

FrancieBrady

tubercolossus wrote: »

The EU have had four years of this. They know Johnson is a blowhard who hates making hard decisions. He'll take the easy way out sooner or later.

I'd imagine somebody will ask Boris...what do you think will happen if you invoke Art 16 or take unilateral action which is outside our agreement?
Show him pics of the full lorry parks in Kent.

Actions have consequences Boris, that is why the EU got talked out of their mistake at the weekend.

CelticRambler

20silkcut wrote: »

Serious crisis for the Irish government.
What is the next move if Boris goes ahead?
Does this put the hard border back on the table?

The hard border? No, not really.

Article 16 states (my highlighting):

If the application of this Protocol leads to serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist, or to diversion of trade, the Union or the United Kingdom may unilaterally take appropriate safeguard measures. Such safeguard measures shall be restricted with regard to their scope and duration to what is strictly necessary in order to remedy the situation.

So Johnson will first of all have to specify exactly what the serious economic, societal or environmental difficulty is, and that it's liable to persist. Well, haven't we just been told (umpteen times) that these are just teething problems? Somehow I doubt that the shortage of M&S egg-and-cress sandwiches is going to tick that box; but in any case Johnson declaring that the "difficulties" are serious and persistent enough to warrant invoking Art. 16 is an admission that the problems are not temporary.

And then he/his government has to come up with such measures as are necessary to remedy the situation. Hmm. Okay. So let's review the UK government's track record on coming up with measures that resolve tricky situations: eh ... mostly last-minute capitulation to whatever the EU has said has to be done, isn't it? Writing a letter to "Brussels" telling them that a grace period has to be extended by two years isn't going to cut it (and remind me again which party didn't want any extension to the transitional phase ...)

The real risk to the EU/Single Market from Johnson invoking Art.16 is minimal - the UK hasn't had time to diverge from our standards yet, so any leakage of product from NI into the EU (RoI for all practical purposes) will be of limited consequence. This gives the EU an enormous advantage, as Art.16 goes on to state:

If a safeguard measure taken by the Union or the United Kingdom, as the case may be, in accordance with paragraph 1 creates an imbalance between the rights and obligations under this Protocol, the Union or the United Kingdom, as the case may be, may take such proportionate rebalancing measures as are strictly necessary to remedy the imbalance.

The EU is more than capable of finding a form of words that can be used to justify the kind of proportionate sanctions rebalancing measures that will bring the UK to heel very quickly, or very slowly if the UK insists on being stubborn. There's no rush, no last minute deadline this time. All those temporary mitigations could be urgently reviewed, for a start, not to mention a considerably more detailed check on every truck and every person's luggage coming in from the UK. I mean you never know how a DUP paramilitary type might be disguised or what they might be carrying in their suitcase ...

BonnieSituation

20silkcut wrote: »

Serious crisis for the Irish government.

Why so?

What is the next move if Boris goes ahead?

Who cares?

Does this puts the hard border back on the table?

Probably not.

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More internal ineptitude from the UK yet again. I had hoped this was done in January.

ErnieG

yagan wrote: »

.... the Tories could blame the threat of Loyalist paramilitaries for Brexit suspended.

It's not a good look for any Government to say its international trade policy is being shaped by terrorist murder threats against civil servants.

20silkcut

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Why so?



Who cares?



Probably not.

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More internal ineptitude from the UK yet again. I had hoped this was done in January.

From the point of view of having unchecked goods on the island of Ireland.

FrancieBrady

Tommy Gorman nailing who is pulling Gove's strings by pointing out that the 2023 date is to get the DUP through the Assembly elections.

Tony Connelly saying there is no mood in Brussels to get rid of the Protocol.

A few tweaks seems to be all they are offering.

Seth Brundle

In Gove's letter to the EU, he has asked for an extension of the NI Protocol's trusted trader schemes, meats, parcels, medicines, etc. until Jan 2023.
I wonder how the EU will react. They can't just say "ok" and that's it.
Given how the UK wasted years available to them to decide on an exit strategy and pretty much failed in terms of the negotiations (given that they are now looking to renegotiate), what should we (the EU) expect to see the UK do in the 23 months that they are looking for?
The UK is continuing to show itself as an untrustworthy partner. Can we trust that they will manage to resolve the issues facing the DUP NI?
Can they really come up with realistic alternatives to not having an Irish Sea border whilst also not having a border on the island (that will also be acceptable to the EU)?

CelticRambler

Seth Brundle wrote: »

In Gove's letter to the EU, he has asked for an extension of the NI Protocol's trusted trader schemes, meats, parcels, medicines, etc. until Jan 2023.
I wonder how the EU will react. They can't just say "ok" and that's it.

I would think the best answer would be a simple: "why?" and that's it.

Let the UK spell out exactly what the problems are and why they can't sort them out themselves.

BonnieSituation

Seth Brundle wrote: »

In Gove's letter to the EU, he has asked for an extension of the NI Protocol's trusted trader schemes, meats, parcels, medicines, etc. until Jan 2023.
I wonder how the EU will react. They can't just say "ok" and that's it.
Given how the UK wasted years available to them to decide on an exit strategy and pretty much failed in terms of the negotiations (given that they are now looking to renegotiate), what should we (the EU) expect to see the UK do in the 23 months that they are looking for?
The UK is continuing to show itself as an untrustworthy partner. Can we trust that they will manage to resolve the issues facing the DUP NI?
Can they really come up with realistic alternatives to not having an Irish Sea border whilst also not having a border on the island (that will also be acceptable to the EU)?

Let's be frank, there are no issues facing NI per se. They have the best of both worlds we keep hearing. Nothing has changed in the last 34 days except the DUP are having one of their patented strops.

I'll be livid if we start talking to the UK again. These are the consequences of their actions. Let them stew