Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839093#Comment_119839093

I'll believe it when I see proof. I've asked twice now.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839093#Comment_119839093

This whole thing is going to collapse in my view. It won't be pretty when it does.

When roughly will this be?

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839119#Comment_119839119

When the eurozone comes under the next attack from a market that doesn't believe Italy has any rational business being in a currency union with Germany. These countries will be forced to pay loan shark rates of interest again on their borrowing, forced in to bailout programs and forced out of the euro.

We are in a currency union with these countries and because we are on the periphery that makes us more vulnerable to contagion when they screw up.

It's absurd pretending "Club Med" is going to become fiscally disciplined. That's never been the case and never will be.

yagan

A brexit true believer doesn't care for the present, only the eternal sunny uplands where vicars on bicycles pass ricket games on village greens. We may hear their utterances on the breeze but their spirit has already ascended this temporal world.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839179#Comment_119839179

This argument is a complete red herring.

It has nothing to do with whether Britain is better off or not. It's irrelevant.

The British people voted to leave. They wanted to run their own affairs.

By your logic Ireland would never have left the UK given it would have been better off staying for 30 years afterward.

Economic well being is not the only driver of these decisions.

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839175#Comment_119839175

What is the counter argument to this out of curiosity...........two tier currency, european CB laying down the law etc

Cool Fool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839093#Comment_119839093

You seem overwrought

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839228#Comment_119839228

It has nothing to do with whether Britain is better off or not. It's irrelevant.

The British people voted to leave. They wanted to run their own affairs.

By your logic Ireland would never have left the UK given it would have been better off staying for 30 years afterward.

Well that's deeply offensive.

The British people could run their own affairs. Their problem is that they couldn't run everyone else's like they got used to.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839032#Comment_119839032

out of curiosity, could you detail how the UK handled the GFC crisis better and came out of it in better shape due to their independent monetary policy please?

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839246#Comment_119839246

There is no counter argument really. The fact is these countries have completely different cultural tendencies when it comes to their economies. The northern European countries are typically fiscally sound. The med countries (all of them) are not. They typically run big deficits, have high overhang of debt and are not very productive economies.

This was hopelessly exposed during the last eurozone crisis.

When you have 3 countries in IMF bailout programs and two large countries (Italy and Spain) nearly forced out of the debt markets that should tell anybody all they need to know about this setup and how sustainable it is.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119838538#Comment_119838538

The UK had opt-outs on Schengen, Economic and Monetary Union, Charter of Fundamental Rights of the EU and Area of freedom, security and justice.

Norway pays the same per capita as the UK did after the €6.6Bn rebate.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839258#Comment_119839258

The UK never came remotely close to being forced out of the bond market like we were because the Bank of England could put in the required monetary policy to suit the needs of the UK to ensure that the average British worker did not suffer the same depth of austerity as an Irish, Greek or Portuguese worker. They could devalue through monetary action, we couldn't.

The Bundesbank came first and that didn't suit us.

Long story short our devaluation was a savage hit to every man, woman and child in this country.

Now, imagine if Germany was in our situation at the time. What do you reckon the policy of the ECB would have been then?

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839284#Comment_119839284

The UK had plenty of austerity during the crash and is now foretelling quite a bit more.

Membership of the eurozone has its pluses and minuses, however access to funding from the ECB was part of it and we have come out of the GFC far better than the UK has and are currently in a far better position they they are. Also, plenty of countries with their own currency struggle to access the bond market, including the UK in the past, it is not a get out of jail free card.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839268#Comment_119839268

So you're saying the EU will collapse any day now despite being literally decades old.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839304#Comment_119839304

Same old quip when you're defeated and can't argue.

Let me ask you a question. Do you think there is anything at all unusual when five countries in a currency union require either IMF bailouts or guarantees to avoid national bankruptcy?

What does that tell you about the single currency?

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839319#Comment_119839319

How about you provide some sources for your claims about three countries being forced into referenda first?

28064212

Schrodinger's EU: Simultaneously being destined for failure due to the demands of the PIIGS countries, while also being exclusively run for the benefit of Germany

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839300#Comment_119839300

If the UK had been part of the eurozone in 2008 given the scale of their banking crisis which was not a million miles behind ours it would have been a complete economic and social disaster.

What they have done since is their own choices but at that time they should count themselves very lucky they didn't join. The bailout funds they would have required I don't even think could be met.

When Spain nearly went cap in hand there were serious doubts whether the money needed (€500bn just for them to tie them over for 3 years IIRC at the time) from the IMF and bilateral loans from elsewhere could even be put together.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839093#Comment_119839093

When ?

Your a great man for predicting doom but it never seems to come.

All your posts are just Irexit masturbation fantasy

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839175#Comment_119839175

Sorry but I'm having comprehension difficulties tonight. When roughly will this happen was my question? I can't tell from your reply.

yagan

Brexiters ascended to English heaven on June 21st 2016. The arguments made then have not changed, will not change and will be written on gravestones when they physically brexit this world.

Capt'n Midnight

Good news

£16.9bn boost for Brexit Britain as UK to EU exports hit highest level ever recorded

Goods exports to the EU reached £16.9bn in May, their highest level since the series began in 1997, according to the latest trade figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Bad news , its £'s not volumes

https://twitter.com/nathansldennis/status/1588571859205099520

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839460#Comment_119839460

With the benefit of hindsight, holding an advisory referendum on this was absolutely bonkers. There had been no actual serious debate on Britain's role in Europe in the years up to 2016, nor any real and informed discussion of what life might be like for the UK in a post-Brexit world - just a load of hot air and bilge from Farage and his far right mates.

They may as well have held an advisory referendum on abolishing parliament and / or the monarchy, with virtually no preparation or understanding of the issues. Imagine framing your country's entire future for decades to come based on what Farage and a few cranks columnists in the newspapers are saying.

I love the Lisbon nonsense. There is a blind spot where the likes of Kermit don't realise that the UK voted for it, too. Like they criticise Ireland for making the same decision the UK did while lauding the UK's supposed democracy. I'll never understand how these minds work but I enjoy watching it.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839693#Comment_119839693

The British people voted for exit. I win. 😁 Another vote, like in the EU, you won't get.

joeguevara

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119837157#Comment_119837157

Hold on a second here. Let’s just focus on Ireland, (I can discuss France and Netherlands if you want) but to start let’s flesh out what you claim about Ireland.

We have had two repeat referendums on two treaties. Nice and Lisbon. In the initial referendums the No campaigners repeatedly argued that the treaties would change Irish laws on abortion, lead to a loss of sovereignty, undermine Ireland’s military neutrality, and remove its permanent EU Commissioner.

In the reframed vote all of the concerns were addressed so disingenuous to state the concessions weren’t worth the paper they are written on. And democracy worked as it was unanimously voted in. If the process was undemocratic the initial vote would have ratified the treaty.

and let’s look at the facts. We have retained our neutrality, we had the final say on our abortion law. We have the most sovereign nation in the EU, have full ownership of our tax laws and retained our permanent EU commissioner.

anyone who thinks a vote on a referendum is the be all and end all of the issue is plain and simply wrong. As an example i remember clearly the divorce referendum in the 80s. Defeated. But we had a second one. Same as abortion.

if you claim concessions not worth the paper were used in nice and Lisbon 2 back it up.

As for us not being democratic, I’ve seen this parroted because of our proportional representation vote meaning TDs are elected in later rounds and others without quotas who initially looked popular lose out. This is literally the most democratic process in the world to allow smaller parties and independents a chance against political juggernauts. But people boo hoo that their candidate lost out because more people voted others.

so when you say ‘everyone knows’ at least tell us what we know as opposed to alluding to it.

pixelburp

Wow, this thread blew up and I see it's not "Ireland will be turfed out the SM/CU", just an all purpose rant without a shred of proof. Shame the forum has so little moderation anymore, though it is a Sunday so understandable. At least the poster is honest about their anti-EU, Irexit screed now, after countless times claiming they weren't when challenged on their baseless Single Market ranting. Out in the open, just a vacuous Broadsheet.ie-comment standard ticking all the Greatest Hits of the Europhobe.

FraserburghFreddie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839282#Comment_119839282

I understand that the UK had a fantastic bespoke deal prior to brexit which basically gave them free rein and have made a complete b@llsup by leaving.That doesn't change the fact that brussels is increasingly meddling in members internal affairs.Ireland,for example has fell foul of them on at least two occasions.(abortion laws and corporate tax).

joeguevara

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839798#Comment_119839798

Ok I’ll bite. The UK didn’t have a fantastic bespoke deal prior to Brexit.

When you say we fell foul of abortion and tax laws can, we had a referendum on abortion. If it was voted against then that would have been the outcome.

as for corporate tax we have sovereignty over it. There is discussion over a harmonisation of corporate tax but that’s our decision. Perhaps you are discussing the apple tax case but that’s interpretation of our tax law and territorial jurisdiction of apple body corporates but not changing our law.

Hermy

We weren't allowed to say "no".

I voted no four times.

The British people voted to leave.

The Irish people voted to stay.