Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120235245#Comment_120235245

Something something smug remainers looking down on people something something.

I said ide get in there before the Irexiters come and tut tut at you with fake outrage for calling stupid people stupid.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120235349#Comment_120235349

Their outrage may not be fake - but stupid is stupid in any language - or political position - Truss being a perfect example..

Leroy42

I think the meeting certainly signals a significant change. Sure, the likes of Frost - the unelected bureaucrat - will complain but then he had his chance and even he accepts that the deal he negotiated was terrible.

The fact that the likes of Gove are prepared to even talk about the need to adjust to the reality that they now face issues because of Brexit signals a new phase. Up to this point, there has only ever been upsides. That the UK will get everything it wants and Brexit is about winning.

Nothing will happen immediately, but you can be sure that one of items being talked about is how all politicians can start to move the narrative away from the current Brexit is Done and Brexit is great, to one of more acceptance that it will never be really done and the future is all about moving back towards the EU. How that is achieved, without letting the likes of Reform/UKIP take over is going to be one of the key items to be addressed.

What has surprised me, somewhat, is the total lack of any real backlash against the news of the meeting. Of course you have usual suspects saying it all terrible and anti-democratic etc, but largely it has been met with a whiff of indifference. I get the feeling that most people think that something has to be done and that they need to start coming up with a plan.

Strazdas

The ironic thing is that Brexit may well turn out to be a big success for the EU. They got rid of a very troublesome member of 65m people who has lurched into the depths of right wing populism and xenophobia. The current version of the UK would have been far more disruptive as a member than any previous incarnation.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120235444#Comment_120235444

The UK only became troublesome after the referendum though. It was perfectly fine before that. UKIP were never going to win anything but a few seats in the Parliament for their MEP's to do nothing but virtue signal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120235418#Comment_120235418

Gove has always been something of a pragmatist in contrast to the ideologues running the party. Some sort of alignment with the EU is inevitable and people consider Brexit done so it's a matter for the grown-ups (what few there are) to sort it out. There's no point in doing a deal that the other party will trash so agreeing to a common framework makes sense.

Frost has had his moment in the sun. As has Farage, Hannan, Cummings & co. The rest of us have moved on.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120235418#Comment_120235418

What has surprised me, somewhat, is the total lack of any real backlash against the news of the meeting. Of course you have usual suspects saying it all terrible and anti-democratic etc, but largely it has been met with a whiff of indifference. I get the feeling that most people think that something has to be done and that they need to start coming up with a plan.

Firstly, I'd say that most people are fed up hearing about Brexit.

However, who would report it? The Guardian & Observer are the only national print media really saying anything. The others all are owned or governed by friends of the Tory party. Even the BBC's chairman has links to Boris getting an £80k loan at the time he got the job. Much of the media are complicit in the whole saga unfortunately and this is partly why it will take a long time for the UK to fully acknowledge the mistakes of Brexit

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120235561#Comment_120235561

I agree that much of the things that have happened have happened as a direct result of Brexit. I'd have my suspicions though that if there was a Tory government in 2023 with the UK still in the EU, the narrative would still be very right wing, anti-EU, anti-woke, anti-immigrant etc....probably more pronounced than it was pre-2016. The media were already showing signs of getting a bit more nasty and aggressive by 2015 or so, the year of the Syrian refugee crisis.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120235773#Comment_120235773

We have no way of knowing for sure but a remain win in 2016 would have fortified Cameron's position unless he'd called another monumentally stupid referendum on whether London should become an independent country or something equally daft. That aside, he'd have been replaced by George Osborne and him by another of the Notting Hill set.

Cameron to his credit, a former PR man, would have had no interest in stoking this anti-woke bile. He was deeply concerned with de-toxifying his party and he largely succeeded. The job was botched though as we can clearly see now.

Most of the anti-EU stuff is panto for the masses. UKIP were never going to be a serious force any more than enacting PR-STV. Cameron took the easy way out and here we are.

rock22

@ancapailldorcha wrote "The UK only became troublesome after the referendum though. It was perfectly fine before that. ."

Sorry, Capaill but i can't let that statement go.

Just a very short summary

After years of work and negotiation UK became a full member in 1973 and, before they had time to take of their overcoats, They were offering a referendum to leave. in the 1994 election Labour promoted a referendum to leave the EEC. without any regard to other members or the institutions.a referendum was held in 1975

in 1979 UK opted out of the EMS , although they joined the ERM in 1990( leaving in 1992 )

in 1984 UK broke vetoed budget until it got an undeserved rebate.

in 1994 Election again Goldsmith stood on a promise of offering a referendum. Eventually, as we know Cameron , promised a referendum in 1974 election. but only alter he promised to re-negotiate the UK membership. i.e. renegotiate an agreement they had already committed to - sounds familiar?

It has consistently opted out of agreements , even on simple things like metrication, it had already agreed to.

The |Referendum itself, in 2016 , disrupted the EU, world markets and political institution. It was no thanks to the UK that the EU was not damaged by Brexit. But that did not stop Cameron for a moment putting narrow party/even personal considerations before the concerns of EU partners. And that very specifically includes Ireland which the UK shared a border and share commitments to each other vis a vis The GFA

In no sense can you say that the UK caused no problems pre Brexit. I haven't mentions the total disrespect offered to the institutions and fellow members but UKP MEPS or the Britsh press who are hand in gloves with the UK political parties. The Mirror and Labour don't escape this criticism either, both main parties were happy to constantly pass the blame for their actions onto the EU

@ancapailldorcha "UKIP were never going to win anything but a few seats in the Parliament for their MEP's to do nothing but virtue signal."

If that was the case then why did the Tories tear themselves inside out trying to accommodate the eurosceptic and right wing views of Farage and his ilk?

ancapailldorcha

I stand by my statement. The EU is itself a very messy compromise. The UK wasn't the first member to seek special status. One thinks of French farmers and the CAP, the Dutch and French torpedoing of the European Constitution, the Lisbon treaty in Ireland, the Walloons nearly sinking CETA and Macron vetoing North Macedonia's accession just after they had a difficult referendum to placate Greece. Those are just random examples off the top of my head.

The UK being in the EU was good for everyone, especially Ireland and smaller states such as Denmark and the Netherlands wary to excessive Franco-German influence. The only people benefitting from Brexit are a few dodgy financiers and places like Frankfurt who've benefitted from business leaving the UK.

As for Cameron caving, that's just what he did - gamble the constitution for an easy way out. Worked for Scotland for what, all two years? FPTP means winning less than 25% of the vote is pointless. UKIP for 4.4 million votes (12.6% of ballots) in 2015 and got one MP - Douglas Carswell for Clacton-on-Sea.

reslfj

The UK only became troublesome after the referendum though. It was perfectly fine before that.

Sir Ivan resigned January 2017 and his last few years of professional life included time pre referendum.

Such negativity is something every organisation should avoid.

Lars 😀

PS! This clip is from 2019 when a revoke of A50 was possible (ECJ) and the UK could have continued in the EU on its old conditions: rebate, opt-outs, etc.

https://twitter.com/LarsFJ1/status/1099752909980532736?s=20&t=7yd-8FL05skgcflhawKEPQ

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120236028#Comment_120236028

Which is why I stand by my assertion that Brexit may potentially be a very good thing in the long term. The EU got rid of a troublesome member (especially any version led by a Tory government) and one which didn't really sign up to European values or believe in a sense of European identity.

yagan

Brexit has certainly been a good rebuff to nostalgic populism elsewhere in the EU, but a declining UK may yet become a troublesome liability in the future.

cml387

I see where No 10 are suggesting that Sunak didn't know Gove was going to be at Ditchley Park.

One could see that as giving the PM plausible deniability to please the "Flying Monkey" (copyright Dominic Cummins) of Brexit.

Or perhaps he is just not in charge.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120234606#Comment_120234606

On paper.

The reality is https://www.poandpo.com/news_business/20-kmlong-queue-of-trucks-forms-at-turkeybulgaria-border/

But it could be a stepping stone.

rock22

@ancapailldorcha wrote "I stand by my statement. The EU is itself a very messy compromise. The UK wasn't the first member to seek special status. One thinks of French farmers and the CAP, the Dutch and French torpedoing of the European Constitution, the Lisbon treaty in Ireland, the Walloons nearly sinking CETA and Macron vetoing North Macedonia's accession just after they had a difficult referendum to placate Greece. Those are just random examples off the top of my head.

The UK being in the EU was good for everyone, especially Ireland and smaller states such as Denmark and the Netherlands wary to excessive Franco-German influence. The only people benefitting from Brexit are a few dodgy financiers and places like Frankfurt who've benefitted from business leaving the UK."

My reply got eaten up with the problems with boards this morning, so I will just summarise.

I think we will have to agree to disagree.

There is no comparison to countries protecting or putting forward their interests and the UK reneging on matters already agreed. The ink was hardly dry on the accession papers when the Labour party promised, and delivered, a referendum to leave. (Join 1973 , stood for election of referendum pledge in 1974, held referendum 1975) There is no other country did this. The Constitution and Lisbon were put forward to be agreed. The UK though wanted , from the beginning , to tear up what they had agreed to. That also included the arguments over the budget and the 'rebate' too.

Cap was a part of the EEC before UK joined. In fact it was a very big selling point here. Hopefully CETA will get stopped. And I agree with you about Macron and North Macedonia, it was a time for other countries to step up and they all failed to do so.

I would definitely not agree that UK being in EU was good for everyone. I would have preferred no Brexit, but now that it has happened I think the EU will be much better without the UK and I would not welcome their return.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120236557#Comment_120236557

Overall, I think it has strengthened the EU. The Brexiteers were convinced it would be a rip roaring success and that other member states would quickly follow them out. Instead, it has (predictably) been a disastrous failure and the English nationalists have actually done serious damage to the notion of 'Euroscepticism'.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120240520#Comment_120240520

Someone needed to be dumb enough to jump and Brexit completely called the eurosceptic bluff.

Auld "tell it like it is" Le Pen has since watered down her beliefs on numerous occasions.

The anti EU far right are in power in Italy and not a peep about the EU from the cowards.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120240583#Comment_120240583

It's almost amusing how the Brexiteers became the "fall guy" for the eventual abject failure of Euroscepticism. The test case that showed that withdrawing from the EU after decades of membership was a terrible idea.

Strazdas

Interesting article in the Telegraph. It's behind a paywall, but she makes no attempt in the article to disguise the fact that the project is an absolute failure and is already dead and buried.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/13/brexit-finally-dead-tory-party-will-soon-suffer-fate/

Kermit.de.frog

Latest leaks now say there could be no checks on goods at all between GB/NI and 'staying in NI'.

If true, from multiple media sources, then that is a hole in the SM and new checks will be needed between us and the continent sooner rather than later.

The more the British get, the more undermined our own position becomes. They will get a lot out of this as I've consistently and correctly warned they would.

An upside of the deal will be remainers won't be able to use our country anymore in furtherance of their own internal aims for the UK. Annoyingly Brexiters who have also used this country for their own aims are getting a good chunk of what they wanted. There will even be loosening of the ECJ's role.

Now, I have to give space to the usual contributers to laughably tell us how strong the EU is....etc etc

I'll be back next week to trash out the EU's capitulation terms 🤭

Leroy42

Latest leaks? From where from whom?

You say no checks, but I assume you mean no actual checks at the border? Checks would be in the form of pre-registration for green status, access to real time data and checks within the EU itself.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120242741#Comment_120242741

Devil is in the detail of any agreement and how it works out on the ground (if there ever is such and it gets implemented, I just find it hard to see it happening with current UK govt.). A long time ago there was going to be a "trusted trader" scheme for some UK companies moving goods to NI.

Problem was afair UK govt. wanted to be able to place loads of British companies (maybe every company that ever sent anything at all to NI according to data they had available?) onto such a "trusted trader" list.

So like that, the idea of any "green lane" depends on how UK govt. approach it (with honesty, or trying to gain advantage and continue working away at the destruction of the NI protocol by jamming absolutely everything transported to NI from Britain into their new "green lane").

Anyways I saw this morning article claiming agreement is mostly complete but UK government is holding off on it for now (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-brexit-deal-northern-ireland-sign-delay-2023-rh0zjzw0c) [edit: maybe it was that you were referencing - would be nice, helpful even if you posted a few links to these "multiple media sources" in your post].

Rishi Sunak accused of sitting on Brexit deal

If story is true that is suggestive that they are afraid, and believe quite a lot of the Tory party and swivel eyed membership will be outraged anyway no matter if you think they have won something here. So it could cause another round of the struggles they have had over "Europe" (e.g. some of the MPs may now gang up & try and remove Sunak over signing off on it if he dares to do so etc.).

ArmaniJeanss

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120242741#Comment_120242741

You post an unsourced claim, and then merrily declare that you are going to give space to those that disagree and not post back for a week.

That's pretty much against the whole ethos of how the forum is supposed to work.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120242880#Comment_120242880

I'll choose the Guardian so

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/14/northern-ireland-protocol-deal-eu

timetogo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120242915#Comment_120242915

Can you point to where it says

"Latest leaks now say there could be no checks on goods at all between GB/NI and 'staying in NI'."

The "at all" is your emphasis. I can't see that referred to in the Guardian article. I do see this bit though

"Goods from Great Britain destined to stay in Northern Ireland would go through a green lane with lighter checks, although the precise nature of customs paperwork and food and animal health checks remains unclear."

Seems like what the EU have been asking for, for years. I can see how brexiters will claim it as a win. They have to.

Leroy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120242915#Comment_120242915

Small bit about checks here;

or checks beyond pre-existing public health controls.

So checks then, and real time data and the ECJ having the ultimate say over disputes. Can you point to me where this show the capitulation you are calling.

EU gets direct access to UK data, gets to make decisions over rulings, the UK has to continue to abide by all EU regulations.

I think the main issue is that for many Brexiteers, Brexit is all about winning/losing. There is no room for actual consideration of the realities. The EU are not overly concerned with what goes into NI, only what could potentially leak into the EU market. Real-time data minimises this risk. If, for example, they see a large spike in the number of goods being shipped into NI then a red flag will appear.

ancapailldorcha

So it's another link dump for this latest iteration of someone's conspiracy theory. As Leroy has said, there's plenty of safeguards in place so this isn't the capitulation someone is dreaming about.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120242977#Comment_120242977

I looked as well. Clearly, they didn't read the link. The word "leak" doesn't appear once.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120242217#Comment_120242217

archive.is dA6qM not paywalled, add https:// and the intervening '/'

Some nice quotes from this:

"Regardless, the fact remains that Brexit is dead. The only thing left to do is the political equivalent of disposing of the body"

...

"In order for the country to heal, the Conservative Party would have to be permanently destroyed through the ballot box. Fair or not, this is merely the way of history and the logic of populism."

...

"That is how deep the Brexit ditch has become – not only do our elites have no compelling plan for fixing things, they don’t even intellectually understand the core issues."

---

The last quote is most telling. Even a magic wand that said, "Brexit never happened" wouldn't fix the UK. It was doing poorly beforehand.

But, yeah, political elites in the UK aren't impressive.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120242741#Comment_120242741

Latest leaks now say there could be no checks on goods at all between GB/NI and 'staying in NI'.

If true, from multiple media sources, then that is a hole in the SM and new checks will be needed between us and the continent sooner rather than later.

...

I'll be back next week to trash out the EU's capitulation terms 🤭

Mod: at this point, people are tired of your wild fantasies - including myself. If you wish to post again in this thread, please provide sources to your above claims - do not post in this thread without this information.