Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

Liz Truss is talking about some European economic equivalent of NATO to counter the likes of Russia. I thought the days of real life being dafter than satire here were over to be honest.

noelfirl

"A woman so dense that light bends around her."

Speaking of satire and reality - the above line purpoted to be written by a journalist in a newspaper was actually sadly just satire, but I think we can all agree that in spirit it represents the reality with very precise accuracy.

Mefistofelino

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120264707#Comment_120264707

That phrase is at least 14 years old, from an episode of "The Thick of It" - the same episode that also introduced another ever- useful expression "omnishambles".

ancapailldorcha

Absolute belter of an article from Wolfgang Munchau in the New Statesman today (https://archive.ph/NJLBN).

Muchau elegantly describes the plight and pitfalls faced by "rejoiners". He talks about how 60% of people thinking Brexit was a mistake does not equate to a majority for rejoining, how the best thing to do for now is to forget rejoining and to learn the lessons of why Britain left.

More interestingly are his opinions on the current state of the EU and the Euro:

By the time the UK reapplied, the EU would have moved on in several policy areas. London would be unlikely to regain its status as the eurozone’s financial centre. Frankfurt and Paris have taken some of London’s business. Milan is coming up fast. I recall well that Mario Draghi, in his role as president of the European Central Bank (ECB), was focused on challenging London’s position as the eurozone’s financial centre. The ECB thought it was bizarre that the world’s second-largest currency zone was reliant on a financial centre outside its territory. The ECB can be relied upon to insist that the UK should join the euro if it were to rejoin the EU. Has Team EU even thought about that?

France will almost certainly insist that the UK conforms to the EU’s policies on immigration and home affairs. Why would France want to accept an external EU border on its northern shores when it can outsource that problem to the UK?

We should remember that the EU did not hand the UK its opt-outs on a silver plate. The UK blackmailed the EU into them, by threatening to veto consecutive EU treaty revisions, starting with the one at Maastricht in the early 1990s. But if the UK applied to rejoin, the tables would turn. Each of the EU’s current 27 member states would have a veto on UK membership.

Another thing that has changed since the UK left is that Germany and France have cemented their powers over regulation. The European Commission has recently proposed the suspension of state aid rules in response to the US’s Inflation Reduction Act. This will help Germany in particular to rig EU economic policy even more in its favour. Germany dominates the regulatory debate in the EU because it speaks for several smaller countries that are part of the wider German economic zone. It is hard to see how the UK could impose itself on this.

The author's conclusion is unsurprising: Much has changed. I was sanguine about the UK keeping the pound upon reapplying for membership but this article makes clear that that would be ridiculous. There's no sign that anywhere near enough introspection has been carried out here about the Euro, the rebate, borders, etc and that's before we factor in Farage & Co and the Tories who are equally ready to deploy misinformation when it suits them.

Larbre34

Sunak needs to grow a set of balls and do what's right for the British economy. The Tories are toast in the next GE either way, he should initial the deal and stick it before the Commons and get it passed with Labour support and begin the process of trying to restructure the EU relationship in a way that is slightly less catastrophic than the current situation.

Who cares if it kills his prospects, he'll probably lose his seat anyway.

The days of the fringes, ERG and DUP dictating the fortunes of mainstream working Brits has to end.

CelticRambler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120265484#Comment_120265484

Nice to see Herr Münchau echoing the point I made at the beginning of January regarding the use of the term "rejoin" in the context of the ongoing Brexit Good/Brexit Bad debate. Brexit is done, and cannot be undone; and Britain can, in the future, apply to join the EU but not re-join.

Given the mediocre way in which the original Remain side ran its campaign, and what often comes across an ongoing misunderstanding of how the EU works, I wouldn't be surprised to see a push for "rejoining" based largely on getting things back to how they were, and that effort drowning out attempts of more clued-in commentators to keep the discussion grounded in reality.

I do think, though, that there's room for a fudge on the question of joining the Eurozone. It might not even need much of a fudge if the British economy continues to deteriorate in the intervening period. Once all Euro-related clearing services and the like has been moved to Eurozone cities, I'm sure it would suit the ECB quite nicely to see the UK (or what's left of it by then) granted a decade or two to get its affairs in order before any such services could move back to London.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120265517#Comment_120265517

The Conservatives have spent most of the last decade actively undermining and damaging the UK economy in a desperate attempt to placate their own fringe elements. That's not a habit they're going to voluntarily break.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120265484#Comment_120265484

One thing that was never fully factored in is that the British hard right were always going to go for a 'car crash' Brexit once they got their hands on the leaving process. There seems to be an element too of they and their many press pals deliberately trying to wreck the relationship with Europe in order to make it impossible to rejoin in future. They have always acted in bad faith and for purely political reasons - it was never anything to do with economics or improving the lot of the ordinary citizen.

political analyst

Obviously, the European Commission doesn't want goods produced in GB being sold in the Republic of Ireland. But I bought sweet potatoes that were grown in the USA in Dunnes Stores here in the Republic. So why is it OK to buy goods from the USA in an EU member state but not OK for goods produced in GB to be sold in an EU member state? It seems hypocritical.

timetogo1

It is OK to buy goods from the UK in the EU. There's plenty of British food in our supermarkets. Do you think there isn't?

They just have to meet the EUs requirements (and meet any quota and tariff requirements) . Same as goods coming from the US.

The UK was originally all about diverging from the EU standards (but couldn't say what they were going to change, it was another of those vague Brexit benefits that wasn't really a benefit). I don't really want Ireland or any other country to be a dumping ground for crap from other countries so am happy that non EU countries that don't comply with EU standards have hoops to jump through.

They were offered an option to say they'd comply with EU standards and so have less restrictions. They didn't take that option.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120267951#Comment_120267951

I believe it depends on the type of food. Things like meat, fish and milk would be subject to very strict customs checks if from outside the EU.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120266186#Comment_120266186

To be fair, I always maintained that it'd be the height of stupidity for Starmer to start talking about rejoining. I consider "rejoin" to be perfectly valid as all it means is the UK becoming an EU member state once again. The rest is semantics.

I don't see a future rejoin campaign focusing on restoring the pre-2016 status quo. Those days are done and I didn't need Herr Muchau to tell me that though his article was most illuminating nonetheless. Sadly, I think it's going to take the demographic replacement of the angry Brexiter demographic by time to build any sort of consensus for rejoining that Labour or a reformed Tory party can use for a GE campaign.

One advantage of the Euro at least is that it's immune to attacks from Tufton St puppets like Truss and Kwarteng. I've spent 12 years here now. That's 12 years of pension contributions I'd be perfectly happy to see converted to Euro. I've spent the past few weeks researching living in Germany on and off (Thank Christ for r/Germany) and I think I'm basically stuck here. I can live without a rebate and a fudge for joining the Eurozone would be more than welcome.

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120268132#Comment_120268132

On the food front, that divergence-by-default approach is starting to bite into food supply safety.

There is a fresh epidemic of ‘empty supermarket shelves photos’ ongoing on social media right now, which British newscasters commenting about it today (Sky, BBC) have pegged on a one-off weather event in Spain, particularly in respect of Spanish and Moroccan tomatoes.

The glaring issue for these British newscasters, is that there is no such shortage of produce on western EU supermarket shelves. None whatsoever. That little factoid is completely airbrushed from their reporting, so far.

The more serious problem for Brits, is that this one-off weather event is but an isolated supply-side blip, in a vast series of Brexit-related supply-side blips (variously: NTBs, general shortage of haulage capacity (ever-shrinking for UK destinations bc customs & M20), cost of haulage capacity available to them, difficulty of sourcing seeds and ballooning energy costs for UK producers, whose cashflow is now unsupported by PAC, etc..), series which eventually coalesces into a critical mass.

MBSnr

^^^

This explains it very well. Ironically another phantom ferry company is involved...

https://twitter.com/chrislowndes/status/1628007273170706434

Breezer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120268797#Comment_120268797

I was in Tesco Ireland yesterday and it was the same. I haven’t been into Dunnes, Aldi or Lidl since, to compare. Is Tesco Ireland still using British supply chains, I wonder?

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120268797#Comment_120268797

I'm no brexiteer but..

RTE news : Fruit and veg imports hit by poor weather in Europe

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2023/0221/1357956-grocery-ireland/

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120272707#Comment_120272707

Nobody is denying the weather-related hit to seasonal volumes, reported at around 20-25% relative to the norm, and which is non-trivial.

Irish stores (maybe not all, e.g. Tesco IE?) will be sourcing from EU wholesalers and more infrequent/atypical supply sources like Egypt. It’s more involved, notwithstanding the significant increase in direct continent-Ireland ferry routes of the past few years, relative to road/rail-only fret options on the Continent, so produce to IE will ofc take longer/cost more/in smaller batches: being an island far away can only be mitigated to a point by logistics.

But these EU/Moroccan channels are unavailable to UK stores, because UK stores are commercially unattractive for the usual Brexit reasons (cost and faff of paperwork (hits profit margin), EU hauliers reticent to take loads to the UK, and all similar other NTBs). That thread linked by MBSnr above is an excellent primer about it, ciaran the courier (of Twitter fame) linked a similar one more recently.

TL;DR: yes, the weather has hit Spanish and Moroccan produce volumes; no, it’s unlikely there will be shortages of produce in the EU (incl.IE) on the scale reported in the UK…in view of which UK supermarkets are now taking to rationing:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/21/asda-morrisons-ration-tomatoes-peppers-fruit-shortages?CMP=share_btn_tw

https://news.sky.com/story/asda-limits-purchase-of-some-fruits-and-vegetables-due-to-supply-challenges-12816521

Strazdas

That's a striking opinion poll stat from NI. Looks like the penny is starting to drop even with unionists that the Tory Brexiteers are not to be trusted.

https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1628520534089646092

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120277625#Comment_120277625

Am curious about the sampling here, because that the Irish government and EU is approx. 2-3x times more trusted than even the NI Executive is insane. Though I could see why after a while, soft Unionists/Nationalists would be fed up with a bunch of politicians just ársing around Stormont while picking up pay for doing nothing.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120277994#Comment_120277994

The 38% are probably various levels of nationalist or actual ROI born people.

The 3% for Westminster is because both pro and anti EU think Westminster can't be trusted but for the opposite reasons.

Nody

UK Supermarkets

Kherson, Ukraine Supermarket

https://twitter.com/lindseyhilsum/status/1628704365618798592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1628704365618798592%7Ctwgr%5Eb84330cd9342ac80c2ba23dbea2656e184e27caf%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-35573536451894199658.ampproject.net%2F2302031721000%2Fframe.html

But remember, it's not due to Brexit because the Tory government says it's not Brexit related. Of course, this is only the start as leeks is likely next on the list among several other veggies likely to come up short in 2023.

Leroy42

The bit that always gets me is that simply saying it is not Brexit seems to be enough for many people. But the whole point of Brexit was that the UK was going to have control, it was going to be in charge, yet nobody seems to want to hold the government to account. They have simply replaced blaming the EU with blaming everyone else and the EU.

By admitting that all of these issues are essentially outside of the control of the government, what exactly was the point and more worryingly how can the government ever hope to make things better since they are not in control.

Just once I would like an interviewer to take that line with a minister.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120283788#Comment_120283788

Just because the UK have gained control, doesn't mean they know how to exercise control.

Ferry companies without ferries etc....

breezy1985

Anyone see that clown Coffey going on about Turnips yesterday.

Of course a Labour MP was gonna come back with "let them eat turnips" I mean what else would you expect if you are gonna patronize people about a food shortage.

Things are bad enough for the party without these kinds of open goals.

rameire

The Same ole Turnips that are imported into the UK, quite a lot from the EU.

https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/All/year/2019/tradeflow/Exports/partner/GBR/product/070610

Sam Russell

I would think that many youngsters in the UK would know what a turnip looked like, or their parents would know how to cook one. Few of them would even eat one no matter how it was prepared.

I saw a UK Gov chart that had apples as in season in winter/spring. No, the only UK apples that are artificially stored are available now.

Of course apples have always been available at this time of year but they are from South Africa, Chile, or New Zealand (home of the Granny Smith).

The whole notion of seasonality in food died 30 years ago, with an extended growing season achieved by greenhouses and polytunnels, and special storage conditions.

I have not seen actual new potatoes in years because the old season potatoes are sold years after they were picked. Food is getting more artificial.

.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120283788#Comment_120283788

The interesting thing about a lying government and a client media which fails to hold them to account is that it makes it virtually impossible to solve any of their problems. They are facing into a terrible couple of years at least because the govt and the deeply corrupt Tory press won't even discuss what the real problems are.

Water John

Don't have the recent poll which shows that every constituency bar one now has has a majority against Brexit. Alastair Campbell mentioned it. Anyone got it?

Leroy42

Cleverly has stated today that unless the DUP sign off on the deal then no deal will happen. Effectively handing over parliamentary control from the elected government to the tiniest minority.

Sunak has managed to go from having a deal almost done to backtracking so much as to hand over the final say to those not even within his own party. And the Tories have a 70 seat majority!

Ye more weakness from Sunak.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120284261#Comment_120284261

It's grand because we already have a deal anyway so the DUP are only fuking themselves again.