Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

timetogo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120611783#Comment_120611783

From that article "The prime minister did not disclose which European manufacturers had expressed concern."

I'd translate that to "no European manufactures have any real concerns" apart from a few that are based in the UK.

reslfj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120611496#Comment_120611496

Take a look at this Wikipedia page: Vauxhall Ellesmere Port https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vauxhall_Ellesmere_Port

The factory use to be the main factory for the Opel/Vauxhall Astra model ! Now it is being retooled for some PSA/Fiat/Stellantis models.

Lars 😀

yagan

Ultimately if it's a matter of rationalisation any uk engineering staff will easier attain eu visas for a relocation.

Those Vauxhall plants were being mainly used for van production for the uk domestic markets.

Ford transits for the eu market are made in turkey under the customs union, but the Tories simply won't align in any way with the single market for party ideology reasons.

Industries plan in decades so I can see a general pullout happening.

Sam Russell

Luton plant makes(/used to make) vans for Opel/Vauxhall/Renault. Not sure if that will continue, or whether the Renault version will be replaced with a Peugeot version, or a Fiat version, or whether they will retool.

Ellesmere Port made the Astra (Open/Vauxhall). Anything could happen there and might be looking for UK Gov support.

serfboard

I don't know what they're surprised/upset about. The one economist that Brexiteers used to cite was Patrick Minford - and he said that this was going to happen:

in 2012 he told a parliamentary committee that the U.K. leaving the European Union would result in the automotive sector suffering a “big transitional loss.” He claimed that there would be more “gainers than losers” because cheaper imported cars would flood into the U.K. He agreed this would all but destroy U.K. car manufacturing.

Minford agreed that the U.K. automotive manufacturing industry would be destroyed. “You are going to have to run it down,” he said, nonchalantly.“It will be in your interests to do it, just as in the same way we ran down the coal and steel industries”.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120612856#Comment_120612856

The running theme through Brexit has been that horrible things are fine so long as they happen to everyone else.

A post-Brexit UK run purely on neoliberal principles could be quite successful. The problem would be eliminating subsidies, vastly shrinking the state and destroying the livelihoods of millions of people. The success would only be for a tiny few people employed in certain industries but even those would need careful regulation and we live in a country where government ministers moan incessantly about their briefs as if they're powerless figureheads instead of members of the executive in one of the most centralised countries in the world.

rock22

What is interesting, and is seemingly overlooked by all the media commentary, is that again we have a UK prime minister who has to run to the EU in order to address the matter. The UK is now powerless to influence decision making in the auto industry , and probably other large industries too, because they have built a tariff wall between themselves and there nearest neighbours.

All they can do is appeal to the EU to fix the problem for them. Not the best advertisement for 'regaining sovereignty' and 'taking back control'. I imagine that the UK will, more and more, have to appeal to the EP to fix various 'things' for them in the future

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120615418#Comment_120615418

Exactly and if people had read anything more intellectual than the dishonest tabloids that infest this country, they'd have known full well that this was going to be the inevitable outcome. Instead, Tory ministers wail and whine about problems that they're empowered to fix. The immigration one is particularly galling. Patel and Braverman did nothing but virtue signal and undermine free speech and now net immigration is set to hit a million this year.

Net migration is on track to be as high as one million, analysis suggests ahead of the release of official figures this month. Ministers are braced for net migration, the number entering the UK minus those leaving, to hit a record high, surpassing the previous peak of 504,000 set in the year to June 2022.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/11/net-migration-million-home-office-government-conservative/#:~:text=Net%20migration%20is%20on%20track,the%20year%20to%20June%202022.

You can only use the culture war stuff so far until people expect real action.

People seem to want to rejoin the EU but the issue now is getting someone brave enough to reopen the old wounds.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_United_Kingdom_rejoining_the_European_Union_%282020%E2%80%93present%29

Of course, there's always the structural democratic deficit that allowed a venal Tory party to take us out on a whim that the EU will be deeply concerned about along with Ukraine, Macron, etc.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120615613#Comment_120615613

(https://archive.is/y2z9A)

I like this bit especially:

"Tory MPs want ministers to go further and tighten controls on visas for lower skilled workers. Former minister Sir John Hayes, chair of the Common Sense group of backbench MPs, said: "Population growth at this level is unsustainable. The Government needs to act immediately and radically to curb migration.

“We should not be adding to the numbers of people we take into the country outside of the key shortage occupations," he added. "It risks damaging productivity by maintaining or even creating a labour intensive economy rather than a high tech, high skilled economy. It displaces investment in skilling Britons and automation.”"

What ridiculous logic - it's not like the need for those workers will magically go away. Fruit will still need to be picked, and public loos cleaned. So, more careers now for average Britons?

"high tech high skilled economy." Activision's going to be acquired by Microsoft, how long will they stay in the UK again? And on, and on.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120615762#Comment_120615762

It's just a truism at this point to say that when Tory MP's talk, you should just assume the opposite of what they're saying is true. I find the idea of a "Common Sense" MP bloc hilarious. Either the party is so deranged that such a group is needed or that this is the best name they could come up with.

What we need is housing, especially social housing. What we have is housing minister Michael Gove who does nothing but moan as if he is somehow powerless. We were supposed to take back control so that it couldn't be used? Was this it?

Education is extortionate here. University fees are over ten grand a year. Where do they think these skills are going to come from? And, what then? The body that represents my profession had a meeting and several senior people were decrying the pitiful salaries on offer, particularly since said profession is concentrated in London-Oxford-Cambridge which is, of course, crippled by abysmal infrastructure and extortionate housing costs (https://www.economist.com/britain/2022/07/20/the-life-sciences-industry-is-a-jewel-in-britains-economy).

I saw a Google Analytics certificate the other day. No idea if it is worth anything but I'm probably going to do it and see if I can get out of London. It's ridiculous here and we've senior officials of state more interested in virtue signaling and being professional victims than doing anything.

Seth Brundle

Sunak's claims that brexit will provide for cheaper beer in pubs has been rubbished by breweries...

Fitzgerald agreed and said that Sunak’s claims that, owing to Brexit, “this summer you will be able to get cheaper beer in pubs” were based on “ignorance” or a “deliberate attempt to pretend” and stated: “Either it’s an amazing ignorance of what’s happened during the past year in hospitality, or a deliberate attempt to pretend that standing in the sea with an umbrella over your head means that your feet won’t get wet.”

Fitzgerald added that the spin being put on the ‘facts’ the government is peddling on beer has led him to question the validity of its other statements being circulated on other topics and admitted: “It is infuriating to see facts being distorted so heavily when we know the real impacts, and when I see it happening on topics I know something about, it leads me to assume the same is true in the areas where I am less familiar.”

https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2023/05/breweries-respond-to-sunaks-claims-cheaper-beer-is-due-to-brexit/

ancapailldorcha

He said the same thing about tampons as I recall. A bit absurd for a male teetotaller to be coming out with, I thought.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120615762#Comment_120615762

The "key shortage occupations" are the low skilled ones. Some of my former colleagues in hospitality have had to make big cuts to opening hours because of staffing issues.

This "high skilled economy" fantasy shte really bugs me. Firstly it's not a realistic goal for a nation of 60m+ and also Highskilland won't be a very attractive place to live when there are no pubs, cafes or shops and you have to clean up your own office.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120615894#Comment_120615894

The UK beer industry is very reliant on Europe and there is no way Brexit can be a benefit to it. Most of the equipment which is very specialized comes from Europe as do a number of hop varieties (of which the UK can only grow bland stuff like Challenger), all the food grade CO² comes from Europe too. Anyone who drinks craft beer in Ireland will have seen the huge drop off in UK beer on the shelves and I know English pubs in Europe are dropping their English beer menus or supplementing them with Irish beer.

Ya hops do also come from the US and Canada has a ready supply of equipment but the US hops are used in the more complex IPAs and are certain not available to a "cheap beer" brewer.

Sunak claiming recent moves will lower beer price is like saying the Irish governments electricity payments made bills cheaper.

Hotblack Desiato

It was a complete nonsense claim to begin with. Every country in the EU sets its own excise rates (as we know well to our cost).

I'm being too kind. It was a straight-up lie.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120616374#Comment_120616374

I think they took something huge like 2p off excise. Wooo!

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120551443#Comment_120551443

Talks just concluded, Milan it is (gets the third central division of the UPC, after Paris and Munich)

https://www.esteri.it/en/sala_stampa/archivionotizie/comunicati/2023/05/tribunale-unico-dei-brevetti-italia-otterra-sezione-distaccata-per-milano/

It is patently clear that the UK and its legal profession have all lost out with these UPC central division allocations going elsewhere, solely due to Brexit. Likewise, the strong potential the UK would have enjoyed with it, to add to its global repute for IP litigation.

Even if the UK were to ‘rejoin’, it is now unlikely to get a central division for a good decade or two at the very least. A most spectacular own goal, here.

Ironically, Mrs ambro25 (WA’d British) is off today, to train German attorneys in Munich tomorrow, then straight onto Milan for training Italian attorneys for the rest of the week.

We’ll be dropping by the Big Smoke in early June, for a get-together with fellow Irish IP professionals, and stake training opportunities. Very much looking forward to that, it’s been some years since we were over to your side of the world 😁

Hotblack Desiato

If they rejoined they'd get a much worse deal than they had before, that's without a doubt. No "rebate", no special concessions, no euro opt-out, maybe even no Schengen opt-out.

But the EU would be mad to even entertain the idea of Brejoin (Brexin??) when the UK political system remains as f*cked up as it is, FPTP and no written constitution and any government can rip up any agreement entered into by a previous one. Unless there is strong cross-party support for rejoin then they can forget it, and maybe even then.

They're going to have to enjoy their Brexit Benefits for a few decades by the looks of it. 👍️

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120625089#Comment_120625089

As someone stuck here, I couldn't care less about the Euro, the rebate or whatever opt outs the UK had before. I just want back in, even if some of the perks are gone for good.

But yeah, there's no point in joining if one party can go on a constitutional rampage untethered. We need real checks and balances and the odds of that happening are precisely nil. Cross-party support was there to a degree in 1973 but they still had a remain or leave referendum in 1975.

In the meantime, let them eat sovereignty.

ancapailldorcha

Sadly, I don't see it happening any time soon. This sums up the state of things here nicely:

https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1660579448670810112?cxt=HHwWgMCz9buNyIsuAAAA

Too few people here understand that something has to give. If you want to cut immigration, that will adversely affect the economy. If people don't have children, you'll have to import people. If the economy doesn't grow, neither will living standards though the Tories are happy to restrict the latter.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120626637#Comment_120626637

People see that immigration is increasing the demand for services like healthcare, housing, and education. What they don't see is the supply of healthcare, housing, and education is being throttled because of underinvestment and poor pay.

So immigrants get abused because of government incompetence.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120626707#Comment_120626707

Well, they've repeatedly voted for the party of throttling healthcare and education and Britons in general utterly loathe housebuilding. A lot of this is intentional but people expect zero immigration, growth, healthcare, children, cushy retirements and increasing living standards all at the same time. It's unfeasible.

yagan

The yield on a ten year bond for Greek debt is now lower than the UK.

salonfire

It's been a good week for Brexit Britain. Avoiding recession while Germany slides into it. A massive investment in EV battery manufacturing will boost the car industry in the UK. Is the tide turning?

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120646691#Comment_120646691

No would be the answer to your last question.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120646691#Comment_120646691

No.

https://twitter.com/DanielKral1/status/1661647761220026368

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120646691#Comment_120646691

JRL must have gotten paid:

Jaguar Land Rover owner demands £500mn from UK for battery factory

https://www.ft.com/content/f4c5f4e7-b1c6-4499-865d-1247f3302f34

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120647196#Comment_120647196

Try $800MM total...

India's Tata has extensive steel interests in the UK including the Port Talbot plant in South Wales and the government will also offer around £300m to subsidise, upgrade, and decarbonise those operations.

Along with additional energy discounts, it will bring the total incentive package to Tata close to £800m.

Government sources conceded that while the two investments will not be announced at the same time, the two projects are linked.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120646691#Comment_120646691

The German recession looks very much like a 'technical' one - it has been caused by the switch from reliance on Russian gas. Quite a few indications that they will quickly be able to pull themselves back out of it again.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120648050#Comment_120648050

It's just the usual "benefits of Brexit" nonsense.

The latest one is to die on the electric car hill now that they are in full retreat from the "Singapore on Themes" hill and the clamping down on immigrants hill.