Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120648071#Comment_120648071

Interesting, even most Brexiteers are admitting that the thing has failed. We only have the fanatics like Rees Mogg, Hannan and Redwood and some assorted Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph loons still trying to claim it is a big success.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120648050#Comment_120648050

This. Germany's economic woes and the UK's have different causes.

But they also have different responses. There's cross-party agreement in Germany that their previous policy of being energy-dependent on Russia was an error that has been damaging, and there is cross-party support for a change of course. Whereas in the UK both the major parties are still supporting Brexit, and both are in denial about the damage it causes.

Seth Brundle

One of the newspapers that championed Brexit is now reporting on ways to avoid the cumbersome visa "hurdles" now in place because of Brexit...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/abroad/how-to-beat-the-90-day-brexit-rule-and-live-in-france/

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120653473#Comment_120653473

The "Brexit was fine until the consequences began to affect me" mentality is still soaring I see.

I saw a job in Paris I really fancied last week. It was in English, decent salary and with a good company. So good in fact that their screening process rejected me in less than 24 hours.

Seth Brundle

Might that have been due to possible visa issues in which case mention that you are from the EU on your CV (if you don't already)

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120653602#Comment_120653602

It asked if I had the right to live and work in France to which I responded that I did. I also have my nationality at the top of my CV.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120653473#Comment_120653473

The French should send the navy to turn back all them boats full of illegal English immigrants.

timetogo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120653473#Comment_120653473

What a lot of hassle they have to go through now.

12ft | How to beat the 90-day Brexit rule and live in France for six months a year

I remember Priti Patel tweeting proudly about removing the Freedom of Movement. It was only really the dim that didn't realise they were removing their own freedom too.

In other news immigration to the UK is at record levels.

UK net migration reaches record levels, increasing pressure on government | CNN

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120653473#Comment_120653473

The irony is that it's not reporting on ways to beat the rules at all. It's just pointing out ways that, depending on your circumstances, non-EU citizens may be able to comply with the rules and qualify for a visa that will let them remain in France for more than 90 days in any 180 days. Well, duh.

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120656256#Comment_120656256

QFT.

We are always looking at ways and means to extend my mother-in-law’s legal stays with us on the Continent. And for retirees (and I mean all but the wealthiest millionaire-ish ones), there’s basically none…

…moreover, all put aside the other, growing hurdle, of travel and health insurance for non-EU seniors.

The new GHIC regime means private travel and health cover is mandatory (in all but name, or actually, depending on destination EU country) for UK visitors to the EU (with some exceptions: as with everything-Brexit, it gets complicated), and it must getting difficult for most. The days of grabbing one’s E111/EHIC on the way to the travel cabbie are long past.

I’m plenty familiar with the m-i-l’s travel and health insurance quotes since actual Brexit: she has very good pension arrangements, wants for nothing and is in good health with no history of problems, nor of claims…but it is now approaching the unaffordable stage. Lowest is still in four figures now, and that’s a 90 days max policy.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120657133#Comment_120657133

Approaching US prices. Not a good place to be.

Enzokk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120652447#Comment_120652447

I don't think, or at least I hope, Labour are in denial of the harm of Brexit. I think they have made the calculation that they will lose more votes by fighting Brexit again and telling people how bad of an idea it was and being accused of trying to reverse it, against ignoring it and doing things to make it easier once they are elected. While Starmer has not said he will go back into the single market, he has said they will renegotiate the trade deal they have. I would rather Labour in charge and undoing some of the damage than them be realistic and tell the country what I believe but do it from the opposition benches.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120659739#Comment_120659739

I think Starmer is making a disastrous error by not criticising Brexit. Does he really think that stating the obvious failure that Brexit is will cost him a large amount of votes at the next election? This is really weird and naïve stuff.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120660370#Comment_120660370

This. When Starmer is elected to office he is actually going to have to try to solve the problems of Brexit. And the positions he is adopting now rule out the measures that will be most effective to tackle those problems.

I get that Starmer doesn't want to reopen the Brexit wars and thinks that the country will punish him if he is seen to do that. But what he's facing is a country that, while it has no appetite for more war, recognises by a large majority that Brexit has been bad for Britain. It's one think to avoid reopening the Brexit wars, and quite another to rule out all but ineffective tinkering around the margins of the Brexit problem. It requires some political skill to square that particular circle, and I fear that what Starmer is demonstrating here is that he doesn't have that skill.

He needs to make sure that Brexit is an issue that puts pressure on the Tories, rather than on Labour, and that it will continue to be so even when Labour is in office. One stance that he might consider adopting is to say that strategies such as rejoining the EU, forming a customs union with the EU, or participating in the Single Market are only open to the UK if they enjoy cross-party support — the EU is not going to subject itself to the UK's see-sawing. So a Labour government will not pursue them without a degree of cross-party consensus. Then, as the groundswell of dissatisfaction with Brexit swells, he can point to the Tories as the ones who are blocking effective action.

The reverse takeover of the Tories by UKIP has proven disastrous not just for the UK but for the Tories themselves, and the next generation of Tory leaders - the generation that will emerge while the party is in opposition after 2024 - will know that. They'll be looking for a way to get out of the bind they've got themselves into. Supporting a cross-party consensus to "move on from Brexit" or some such shîte might be that way.

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120660370#Comment_120660370

Ironically enough, now is the time Labour should be riding that Brexit fence, like Corbyn was busy and wrongly doing throughout his tenure.

Much Brexit harm has been done and is at long last becoming clear enough for Joe Average on the street to see and understand: there is no further political gain to keeping UKIP overtones for show.

To me, it looks like Starmer is busy remaking a Theresa May, boxing himself into a tight political corner for electioneering purposes.

The Brexit revolution will continue eating its children, including the Labourite newborns.

ancapailldorcha

I'm not so sure. I think it's something similar to shy Tory syndrome where people appear to be fed up of something such as the Tories but then vote for them once again despite the polls suggesting otherwise.

I mean, it's clearly a disaster and he seems to be leaving himself no room to change course if he wins. I think it's clear to pretty much everyone at this point what Brexit is. That said, I don't think any politician is going to nail themselves to rejoining unless they hear the public clamouring for it. Even if they did, would the EU take the UK back in 2024 with the same constitution that produced Brexit? I doubt it. I can see Macron or his successor in particularly being difficult.

In effect, that means constitutional reform which will of course lead to the red tops going to war over the EU "forcing" themselves onto English law. I doubt it'll be enough to stop a Labour government whether or not they push for membership or not but it's something to bear in mind. As happy as I would be to rejoin tomorrow, I think the smarter option would be for Starmer to negotiate closer alignment, see how that goes and then push for full membership once the tide turns sufficiently.

Peregrinus

I don't think what the EU wants, or would demand, is constitutional reform in the UK (beyond saying that UK constitutional law must be compliant with the Treaties, obviously). What it will want is a change in UK political culture; it will want to see a cross-party consensus that is supportive of rejoining the EU, and more generally that affirms the UK a responsible international sovereign that enters into obligations in good faith and understands the importance of abiding by them.

Even if it were acceptable politically or as a matter of principle for the EU to start dictating the UK's constitutional arrangements — and, obviously, it isn't — no constitutional provisions could guarantee the required political culture.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120660778#Comment_120660778

If the political culture here could change so radically between 2015 and 2017, I don't see what's to stop it from regressing once again without some kind of institutional change. Cross-party consensus is impossible with the Conservative party the way that it is. If Labour try and align with the EU, they'll simply double down on the lies and conspiracy theories. Some Tory MPs are regulars on GB News with one hosting a show there. There's no better ammunition for them than a reversal of Brexit, no matter how small.

breezy1985

Mood has certainly changed a bit since I left in 2020 but arguments about Brexit went beyond reason or sanity.

To think Starmer can do will out of criticizing Brexit doesn't understand just how absolutely childish the mentality is. Brexiters are like a 5 year old who desperately needed their mother to tell them their drawing of an airplane that looks like a horse is a masterpiece.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120661022#Comment_120661022

Couple of points:

First, UK political culture didn't change radically with respect to the EU between 2015 and 2017; the Brexit referendum was the culmination of decades of festering. And a changed culture will need to be embedded and sustained for a considerable time before the EU will be confident about it.

Yes, cross-party consensus is impossible with the Conservative party the way it is now. But it won't be like that indefinitely. They will at some point want to regain power. Pandering to the hard right won't do that for them, and they will come to see that.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120661127#Comment_120661127

Sure. But the days when appealing to Brexiters was the route to power are gone. Starmer doesn't need to appeal to Brexiters; he needs to appeal to people who are sick of Brexitry, which is a much larger, and still growing, constituency. He just needs to find a way of doing that without being seen to reopen the Brexit wars.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120661142#Comment_120661142

No he certainly doesn't need to appeal to them but also doesn't need to go on about reversing it.

Best say as little as possible about Brexit and attack the Tories about the million things they are messing up (and yes us adults know it's linked to Brexit) and there will be plenty of time to tackle Brexit in a nice orderly manner once elected.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120661137#Comment_120661137

I disagree. Maybe I should have said 2019 instead of 2017 but we went from professional politicians implementing a cruel agenda (austerity) to Boris Johnson and performative cruelty. In addition, their outriders in the media portrayed human rights activists, lawyers, judges and civil servants as "Enemies of the People".

It took the Tories over a decade to detoxify during the Blair years during which they elected one Iain Duncan Smith as their leader.

The current rot is firmly entrenched in the upper echelons of the party. I've no doubt it will reinvent itself but it won't be quick.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120661174#Comment_120661174

But that's the thing. He's not saying as little as possible about Brexit. He's saying that Brexit is permanent; he's explicitly ruling out not only EU membership in the future, but also measures such as forming a custom union; joining the EEA; participating in the Single Market. These are "arguments of the past" which cannot be revisited, he says. He'll make Brexit work better, but strictly within the confines of the Tory hard Brexit.

He doesn't have to adopt these positions (and didn't until recently), and doing so will narrow the scope he has for actually repairing the harm of Brexit once in office.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120661184#Comment_120661184

It will take a while, but I think it has already begun. The ditching of Truss and the choice of Sunak marked a turning point, and the direction of travel is reinforced by more recent evidence that the Boris movement is dead in the water.

I'm not saying that Sunak is what the Tories need to recover; far from it. He represents the start of a process; not the end. The tories are going to be whipped to a puree in the next election, and Starmer will go after that. The party will face the choice of going back to the Crazies to find a leader, or of choosing a leader who can help them recover the centre ground that has gone sour on Brexit. Their desire for power will lead them to adopt the latter course, and then the process of repositioning and rebuilding as a sane and credible party of the centre-right can begin properly.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120661239#Comment_120661239

I don't think so. You don't appoint someone like Suella Braverman to one of the senior offices of state if you're trying to govern in any sort of genuinely constructive manner. Truss was only ditched because of the damage she did to the economy. If she gutted the state and enriched the right people without that, nobody would have batted an eyelid.

The issue with your second paragraph is the party membership, the 0.2% of the population that dumped Truss there in the first place. They don't care about anything beyond their own personal interests and prejudices. Unless the MP's collectively circumvent the membership voting, they'll get landed with another lemon.

Eventually, they will mutate into something electable but, based on precedent, that will take time.

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120660684#Comment_120660684

Starmer is upholding Brexity rethoric (“EU nicking our diner money”) in red tops in mid-2023 like it is 2016 all over again, in complete opposition to long-established polls monitoring British popular sentiment about Brexit, a good year or so before the next GE.

After his flip-flopping over Brexit since 2016 (and it’s enough flip-flopping to make your head spin), why do so? What is the political arithmetic here?

If it’s a hit-and-run PR job for the Express-reading gammons, what is the point? These are still not going to vote Labour next year, they are at least as receptive to Tory ‘vote Labour for millions of LGBTQ muslamic immigrants’ dog whistles.

If it’s not a hit-and-run PR job, then it’s yet another advertisement for the ‘leopard will eat your face’ party, only with a different coat pattern.

Does he think the EU27 don’t pay any attention to domestic British politics for informing their future economic diplomacy with the U.K.?

The EU will not take the UK back in 2024, nor for a number years thereafter. Not because of any constitutional incompatibility (there was none for 4 decades). Nor because of more subjective reasons like antipathy, mistrust, etc. But simply because ‘taking back’ means an Article 49 application, and that is a beginning-of-the-end stage that would follow years’ worth of realignment inclusive of SM quasi-membership (à la EEA), itself necessarily inclusive of FoM. Given Labour’s increasingly-shrill “discourse” a year from the GE, when they’ve had an open goal before them for months and longer…

“Once bitten, twice shy” shall the EU27 say = I can’t foresee UK (…Wangland by then?) reaccession before a good decade post-Brexit.

Leroy42

My take on the Labour position on Brexit the last week or so, for I find it very odd, is that they are attempting to cut off any talk of Brexit way out from any GE. The Tories have very little to argue on, you can be sure that apart from 'woke', Labours position on Brexit will form a large part of their campaign.

So perhaps this is Labours way of getting ahead of that story, so far in advance that nobody will really care about these statements in 18 months. But enough that Stamer and Labour can easily say that they have already laid out their position on there are more important things to talk about.

This is, admittedly, wishful thinking on my part.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120661426#Comment_120661426

If I'd to guess, I'd say "the point" is to build a voter base. He thinks that he has most of the progressive vote in the bag so he's trying to expand into the Tory base. Given the collapse of Labour's base in Scotland, that shortfall has to come from somewhere.

I think it's still a bad strategy. The gammons and the perpetually enraged will just vote for Reform or the Conservatives. I don't think it's a winner and if he comes out with more nonsense about tagging migrants or permanently staying out of the SM/CU, I'd say said progressives will either vote Lib Dem/Green or just stay at home. He's almost certainly pinning much on the toxicity of the current Tory brand.

I think the best scenario is him aligning with the EU on stuff like climate change, standards and so on. A Swiss agreement without 100+ treaties to be negotiated on since the standards are there already and simply need signing up to. If the UK can be a good partner under Labour, we could move to full membership over time via Article 49. Building trust will take time and the virtue-signalling isn't helping.

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120661676#Comment_120661676

“A Swiss agreement without 100+ treaties to be negotiated on since the standards are there already and simply need signing up to”

Respectfully disagree, there.

There has been an unambiguous and unwavering “no” from the EU27 about that notion right from the start, and ever since.

Over the years of its formation and existence, the agreement between the EU and the Swiss must have used, and continues using, about as much political and procedural oxygen in Brussels and elsewhere, as Brexit has.

There is less than zero appetite across the Continent, and probably Ireland also, for a bis repetita with the UK. Particularly in as socially and political divided, as it still is now.

What we may see, is a gradual (and accelerated, and maybe even skipping a step or two, why not be optimists) climb back up those ‘Barnier stairs’ over a period of years.

https://twitter.com/ConversationUK/status/1086047217624977409?s=20

And the free lunch is over: there’s a deal in place, EU27 is happy enough with it (especially with the enduring asymmetric implementation by the UK favouring EU exporters) so the U.K. is going to have to find leverage <somewhere> and give for climbing each and every step.