Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

10000maniacs

Akrasia wrote: »

Goves’ letter was much more politically hamfisted than the mistake made by the Commission to move towards A16 without prior consultation with the relevant stakeholders

He has an absolutely zero chance of extracting concessions from the EU with this kind of bully boy tactic when everyone can see that the bully’s posse has deserted him and he is trying to take on the entire school on his own

The UK will be forced to back down again or escalate their threats, committing themselves to a battle they cannot possibly win while they’re already in a weakened position

It actually reminds me of a faithless partner who openly shags everyone with 2 legs for years, then tries to take the moral high ground when his wife comments that she quite likes George Clooney from ER, and every one of their mutual friends just look at him and think he’s so damn lucky his wife is very tolerant but he’s pushing his luck way too far now

True, the EU quickly reversed Fridays decision after Michael Martin's phone call from Dublin.
Remember the 3 month long threat from the Tories to break a treaty signed into International law that they only gave up on when Trump was toppled?
Which one was worse? A genuine mistake, or a deliberate and malicious attempt to break international law?

BlitzKrieg

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

a lot of brexit crowing about Cadbury's announcement today

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-55938419

little details to spot in the bbc report





My understanding is they are moving the cadbury products back inside the UK while all their european brands (milka etc) will remain in europe.

I'm actually curious how much cadbury's sold in EU countries outside of UK and Ireland. I wonder if they feel the irish plants will be enough to cover Ireland and the EU and just leave the UK line inside its own sphere

this old 2017 article indicates most of their business is in the UK https://www.thebusinessdesk.com/westmidlands/news/2017164-cadbury-eats-market-share-repositioning-brand#:~:text=The%20snack%20giant%20increased%20its,Easter%20into%20the%20first%20quarter.


also of course there was issues with the EU too

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55846829

With the ending of "frictionless" trade, these kinds of moves are to be expected, in a way it reduces the food miles so could be seen as an environmental bonus.

timetogo1

Nigel is back on the case

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1357329064521060353

Signing a petition to ask the government to do "something". Problems solved. Where was this dynamic go getter during the negotiations.

tubercolossus

Chris Grey's Brexit blog...

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2021/02/brexit-is-coming-apart-at-seams.html


I'm confused as to why Rob keeps bringing terrorism into this. We've had a couple of graffitos on some walls, and people allegedly standing outside Larne port taking down reg numbers. The PSNI have stated there are no signs of Loyalist paramiliary involvement. Yet he keeps mentioning the IRA, who have no ideological stake in this issue. Is this some sort of dogwhistle on his part?

demfad

Peregrinus wrote: »

.....
So, yeah, there was a judgment call to be made here, and the considerations for the UK in making that judgment call were not the same as the considerations for other countries. For what it's worth, I think they were justified at the time in making the call as they did, and so far it seems to be working out ery well for them. At a time when the UK government doesn't have a lot of successes on its hands, I think they deserve recognition and credit for any successes they do have.

Not sure I agree.

Last October the UK invoked Article 126a of Directive 2001/83/EC of the European Parliament which allowed them to take the risks re vaccine approval as stated.

Remember they were under the umbrella of EU rules at the time under a transition period that they requested.

There are many reasons to invoke Article 126a but I am pretty sure that none of them is to get a head start with 'Britain first' vaccine contracts at the expense of your fellow EEA rule takers.
Put another way, if the virus occurred before the transition period then a 'level playing field' vaccine clause would surely have applied and nobody would have had any issue with it.

That said, the UK has handled it's pandemic so badly that one country having such a head start may not adversely affect the overall continental death toll given the risks of spreads and new variants from the UK.

yagan

demfad wrote: »

That said, the UK has handled it's pandemic so badly that one country having such a head start may not adversely affect the overall continental death toll given the risks of spreads and new variants from the UK.

There's reports coming out in the UK now of only 50% turning up for their second shot, which if continued will allow the virus to further mutate.

I won't be surprised as they lift restrictions we'll see another spike, probably not as bad as the current one, but with patchy vaccination cover it could be more drawn out.

tubercolossus

demfad wrote: »

That said, the UK has handled it's pandemic so badly that one country having such a head start may not adversely affect the overall continental death toll given the risks of spreads and new variants from the UK.

No, but that won't matter on the front pages of the DM, Telegraph & Daily Express. My sense from talking online to my UK friends is that the MHRA is acknowledged as a world-class organisation (as is the EMA), which is crucially under the auspices of the NHS and is the reason it's possibly the first thing connected with the pandemic that Britain has done well. As opposed to the job that the likes of Serco and their ilk have been doing thus far. I'd say that they did a really bang-up job and the British government, desperate for any kind of a win, went with it. It's very easy to claim it as a VACCINE WIN FOR BREXIT BRITAIN but we really won't know for several months when we see how different vaccine approaches pan out, in terms of excess deaths. Britain still has one of the worst infection/death rates in the world.

Seth Brundle

timetogo1 wrote: »

Nigel is back on the case

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1357329064521060353

Signing a petition to ask the government to do "something". Problems solved. Where was this dynamic go getter during the negotiations.

He is a sh1t stirrer. I wonder what his endgame is.
I see Kate Hoey is also pimping that petition.

tubercolossus

yagan wrote: »

There's reports coming out in the UK now of only 50% turning up for their second shot, which if continued will allow the virus to further mutate.

I won't be surprised as they lift restrictions we'll see another spike, probably not as bad as the current one, but with patchy vaccination cover it could be more drawn out.

That could turn out to be the real drawback to pushing out the second dose interval to 12 weeks. That people just won't bother to turn up.

tubercolossus

Seth Brundle wrote: »

He is a sh1t stirrer. I wonder what his endgame is.

The continuing relevance of N. Farage.

Lemming

yagan wrote: »

There's reports coming out in the UK now of only 50% turning up for their second shot, which if continued will allow the virus to further mutate.

I think that a lot of it may well be down to ignorance. There seems to be a general lack of awareness as to wtf is going on amongst the public with a general sense of "I've had a jab 5 minutes ago, I'm good to party" when the reality is it takes a couple of weeks for the first jab to do the work it was intended to do, never mind any follow up jabs. Headlines in papers of nurses getting infected 3 days after their jab and then proclaiming their surprise doesn't exactly paint a rosy picture of awareness of the reality around the vaccine(s).

Sam Russell

yagan wrote: »

There's reports coming out in the UK now of only 50% turning up for their second shot, which if continued will allow the virus to further mutate.

I won't be surprised as they lift restrictions we'll see another spike, probably not as bad as the current one, but with patchy vaccination cover it could be more drawn out.

That is very worrying. It is bad enough that they extended to time interval for the second dose with no scientific backing, but not achieving the second dose is even worse - and as you say could give rise to mutations.

ancapailldorcha

tubercolossus wrote: »

The continuing relevance of N. Farage.

The problem is that the Conservative party is obsessed with holding that ideological space so anything he says will be a good barometer of what they're thinking and what they might do.

Lemming

tubercolossus wrote: »

The continuing relevance of N. Farage.

More like the continuing gravy-train income of N.Farage.

yagan

yagan wrote: »

There's reports coming out in the UK now of only 50% turning up for their second shot, which if continued will allow the virus to further mutate.

I won't be surprised as they lift restrictions we'll see another spike, probably not as bad as the current one, but with patchy vaccination cover it could be more drawn out.

The assumption being that the first shot is sufficient or that herd immunity kicks in, in either case the virus can't spread.

The virus will mutate, vaccine or not, on the positive side it is just as likely to mutate as to be weaker.
Look at the Swedish numbers, the virus appears to be rapidly diminishing there and this is before the vaccination process has really got going, either herd immunity or the virus has run out of people to infect.
https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/se

Way off the Brexit trail here.

schmoo2k

Farage is correct, the UK need to improve the ease at which GB / NI can trade. I don't think invoking A16 is the answer, I wonder if they had a referendum in NI to determine what they actually want, what the answer would be?

Seth Brundle

schmoo2k wrote: »

Farage is correct, the UK need to improve the ease at which GB / NI can trade. I don't think invoking A16 is the answer, I wonder if they had a referendum in NI to determine what they actually want, what the answer would be?

The biggest cause of issues between GB and NI is the UK government's poor management of how their departments communicate changes to the public/businesses/etc..

There is also the problem that the UK government has not recruited nor trained sufficient numbers of staff to man the customs & vetinary posts.

The resulting mess has led many EU based logistics companies to simply not bother dealing with the UK because it will more than likely cost them money through delays, etc.

Now, granted there have been delays on the EU side but these to my knowledge were resolved quite quickly.

RobMc59

schmoo2k wrote: »

Farage is correct, the UK need to improve the ease at which GB / NI can trade. I don't think invoking A16 is the answer, I wonder if they had a referendum in NI to determine what they actually want, what the answer would be?

On the subject of trade between the UK and NI, I was pulling out of the retail park here in Birkenhead earlier and had to wait whilst three very large Dublin registered car transporters went past fully laden with UK registered pre owned cars. Birkenhead is actually the location of the Liverpool to Belfast ferry.I don't know if the cars where for the NI market or Republic but someone seems to be doing a roaring trade.

Lemming

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The biggest cause of issues between GB and NI is the UK government's poor management of how their departments communicate changes to the public/businesses/etc..

There is also the problem that the UK government has not recruited nor trained sufficient numbers of staff to man the customs & vetinary posts.

The resulting mess has led many EU based logistics companies to simply not bother dealing with the UK because it will more than likely cost them money through delays, etc.

Now, granted there have been delays on the EU side but these to my knowledge were resolved quite quickly.

Westminster has also not implemented some of the systems that were agreed with the EU which would aid checks. There are theories floating around that the headbangers in charge of the cabinet wants the EU to "feel some of the same pain as we are" so as to encourage them to acquiesce to UK demands. If true, it's more of the same brinkmanship that didn't work last time around ... or anytime at all during the four years prior. The definition of madness, as commented upon by Einstein.

Akrasia

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

I think it is really pushing credibility to suggest that the MHRA rushed a decision to suit the 'Brexit is great'argument. Sure it was seized upon by the 'Brexit is great' mob and the reality is we will never know if Brexit hadn't existed would they have bypassed the EU and done exactly the same thing or if they have actually moved faster due to their position post Brexit. Just don't see the need to turn everything into a Brexit / British bashing exercise by painting the MHRA as gambling or risk taking without any of us really knowing the details.

Ultimately I really don't care as getting vaccinations rolling anywhere is good news and if the UK can move through this quickly and open up even just internally it is only good for Ireland especially due to NI and may even pave the way short-term for lifting of restrictions on the Irish side for travel in and out of the UK if they are back to normal ahead of Ireland.

The MHRA approved the vaccine based on the data that it required a booster after 3 weeks to ensure adequate immunity
The UK government took a gamble that they could stretch the booster window to 12 weeks without evidence that this was safe or effective or without assessing the risk that it could increase the likelihood of a vaccine tolerance variant of the virus could emerge in semi vaccinated individuals

A Dub in Glasgo

RobMc59 wrote: »

On the subject of trade between the UK and NI, I was pulling out of the retail park here in Birkenhead earlier and had to wait whilst three very large Dublin registered car transporters went past fully laden with UK registered pre owned cars. Birkenhead is actually the location of the Liverpool to Belfast ferry.I don't know if the cars where for the NI market or Republic but someone seems to be doing a roaring trade.

Probably a backlog into NI as last week the car trade stated that they have come to an arrangement with the Treasury/HMRC as used cars imported from Britain into NI were being charged VAT

Akrasia

tubercolossus wrote: »

That could turn out to be the real drawback to pushing out the second dose interval to 12 weeks. That people just won't bother to turn up.

Exactly

People are told 1 dose covers them to justify delaying the booster, so lots of people will reason that they’re covered already and won’t go to the inconvenience of getting the booster

PeadarCo

RobMc59 wrote: »

On the subject of trade between the UK and NI, I was pulling out of the retail park here in Birkenhead earlier and had to wait whilst three very large Dublin registered car transporters went past fully laden with UK registered pre owned cars. Birkenhead is actually the location of the Liverpool to Belfast ferry.I don't know if the cars where for the NI market or Republic but someone seems to be doing a roaring trade.

That's not unusual. There has always been a good market in Ireland for 2nd hand cars from the UK. This is due to the UK driving on the same side of the road and the large market when compared to Ireland so more options.

Brexit will make this more expensive however this market won't dissappear.

Hurrache

Another angry letter to the EU from the Tories. The amusing part about this one is that it's basic 3rd country rules, rules which the UK had a part in writing. The UK now claiming they were misled by the EU on these well known and long established rules.

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1357675043145269248

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

Another angry letter to the EU from the Tories. The amusing part about this one is that it's basic 3rd country rules, rules which the UK had a part in writing. The UK now claiming they were misled by the EU on these well known and long established rules.

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1357675043145269248

Didn't read the small print. Quelle surprise.

RobMc59

PeadarCo wrote: »

That's not unusual. There has always been a good market in Ireland for 2nd hand cars from the UK. This is due to the UK driving on the same side of the road and the large market when compared to Ireland so more options.

Brexit will make this more expensive however this market won't dissappear.

Living here I see wagons from the Republic and NI on a regular basis . Its unusual to see so many cars heading for the port at once but a dub in Glasgows suggestion that its as a result of VAT issues being sorted out sounds likely.
I was shocked when I checked the VRT rates for my own car if I relocated to Ireland,not sure how that works now after brexit either.

A Dub in Glasgo

Not even the small print, they did not even know that the UK has been shaping these rules for 30 years! They really are an incompetent bunch

Seth Brundle

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Didn't read the small print. Quelle surprise.

I'm sure it didn't help to have DEFRA telling producers the wrong information about the ban from third countries :rolleyes:

Hurrache

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Not even the small print, they did not even know that the UK has been shaping these rules for 30 years! They really are an incompetent bunch

They must have thought they were going to be given a nod and a wink and not really treated as a 3rd country. Oi, don't you know who we are mindset.

BonnieSituation

RobMc59 wrote: »

Although I detest the ira or whatever they're calling themselves these days I doubt they had any influence on brexit.I do lump all terrorists together regardless of 'sides'.

No you don't.

If you did, you wouldn't have needed to bring the IRA up. They weren't relevant to the discussion.