Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

RobMc59

yagan wrote: »

I was quoting you when I mentioned tit for tat.

Don't attribute your own words to others.

I said tit for tat.It was you who described it as a 'war'

RobMc59

tubercolossus wrote: »

That would be petty and stupid. It's not a war.

Why would the UK insisting paperwork must be spot on like the EU is doing be petty and stupid?

RobMc59

Enzokk wrote: »

What are you posting about, tit for tat? The deal is signed and the paperwork required is known. The problem is because Johnson left it to the last minute so the preparation for companies to know about what paperwork has meant that companies have been caught unawares.

If the UK increases the amount of paperwork required then the EU will respond in kind. You see this disruption and the coming disruption as some sort of plan from the EU to punish the UK, it is just the deal your leader signed.

I agree with the first part of your post Enzokk but when you say if the UK increases paperwork I'm not sure what you mean.As the UK hasn't implemented customs procedures yet if they follow the method of the EU there's going to be a considerable increase of paperwork for EU businesses, is that a reasonable assumption?

fash

RobMc59 wrote: »

Why would the UK insisting paperwork must be spot on like the EU is doing be petty and stupid?

Because when the EU did it, you described it as "dirty tricks" - and since you believe the UK is not the horrifying evil and affront to humanity that the rest of the world knows it to be, you can't be suggesting that the UK would engage in such "dirty tricks" - can you? Or are you suggesting that brexiters are common or garden hypocrites?

RobMc59

fash wrote: »

Because when the EU did it, you described it as "dirty tricks" - and since you believe the UK is not the horrifying evil and affront to humanity that the rest of the world knows it to be, you can't be suggesting that the UK would engage in such "dirty tricks" - can you? Or are you suggesting that brexiters are common or garden hypocrites?

I think if its good for the goose its good for the gander.

ArmaniJeanss

RobMc59 wrote: »

Not accusing them of anything but I expect the UK to reciprocate in kind in July with reams of paperwork required for imports into the UK,shipments refused as they may be a kilo over or something stupid like labelled Eire instead of Ireland.

Is this again the GB/UK paperwork mistake that you considered stupid a few weeks ago?
It was explained by a few posters that the ISO country code is 'GB' not 'UK', and that getting your country codes correct is just a really basic thing for any exporting business. Ditto your commodity codes, tariff codes etc. It's just a given that you don't mess these up.

I doubt any business in Ireland would be stupid enough to put either Eire or Ireland in this field - it's 'IE' if 2 character required, 'IRL' if 3 character required. You'd sack the paperwork person if they got this wrong.

An interesting bit of trivia is that back in the day the UK specifically asked that 'UK' be declared an unusable code such that no other country (like Ukraine presumably) could ever be assigned it.

tubercolossus

RobMc59 wrote: »

Why would the UK insisting paperwork must be spot on like the EU is doing be petty and stupid?

You insinuated that the UK would somehow increase the paperwork, and be especially pernickety, as though it was a kind of war. It was me that used the word first, I believe. The implicit assumption being that the EU was being deliberately 'difficult' because we hate Brexit, or something. Rather than just imposing the rules that now apply to the UK as a 'third country'. You know, it's almost as though no-one supportive of Brexit, from Johnson all the way down to people like Rob, has really ever thought any aspect of it through.

tubercolossus

Rob. When you post a letter, or send a parcel, there is paperwork associated with it. For a letter, you have to have a stamp, and a correct address. With a parcel, it's a bit more complicated, and you need to make sure you've complied with every stipulation, else it may not arrive at its intended destination. If you mucked it up, would you expect the delivery agency to 'be flexible' and 'pragmatic', and deploy extra resources to go the extra mile and deliver your item.....or would you expect it to arrive back at your door a week later, marked 'undeliverable'?

This is seemingly what you expect from the EU, with regard to UK trade.

RobMc59

tubercolossus wrote: »

Rob. When you post a letter, or send a parcel, there is paperwork associated with it. For a letter, you have to have a stamp, and a correct address. With a parcel, it's a bit more complicated, and you need to make sure you've complied with every stipulation, else it may not arrive at its intended destination. If you mucked it up, would you expect the delivery agency to 'be flexible' and 'pragmatic', and deploy extra resources to go the extra mile and deliver your item.....or would you expect it to arrive back at your door a week later, marked 'undeliverable'?

This is seemingly what you expect from the EU, with regard to UK trade.

Then why did you describe the UK doing exactly the same as petty and stupid?

RobMc59

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Is this again the GB/UK paperwork mistake that you considered stupid a few weeks ago?
It was explained by a few posters that the ISO country code is 'GB' not 'UK', and that getting your country codes correct is just a really basic thing for any exporting business. Ditto your commodity codes, tariff codes etc. It's just a given that you don't mess these up.

I doubt any business in Ireland would be stupid enough to put either Eire or Ireland in this field - it's 'IE' if 2 character required, 'IRL' if 3 character required. You'd sack the paperwork person if they got this wrong.

An interesting bit of trivia is that back in the day the UK specifically asked that 'UK' be declared an unusable code such that no other country (like Ukraine presumably) could ever be assigned it.

Fair enough

Seth Brundle

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

It is easier for the EU to import lamb from New Zealand than from Wales because of Brexit, MPs have been told.

https://nation.cymru/news/easier-for-eu-to-import-lamb-from-new-zealand-than-wales-because-of-brexit/

I wish there was a single place all these Brexit dividends are kept track of, death by thousand needless cuts

But we've been told many times that the people of the UK knew what they were voting for.
Hopefully Rob can explain how this particular dividend works for the betterment of the UK.

Professor Moriarty

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

It is easier for the EU to import lamb from New Zealand than from Wales because of Brexit, MPs have been told.

https://nation.cymru/news/easier-for-eu-to-import-lamb-from-new-zealand-than-wales-because-of-brexit/

I wish there was a single place all these Brexit dividends are kept track of, death by thousand needless cuts

As if by magic. Note No. 181 in particular.

yagan

RobMc59 wrote: »

I said tit for tat.It was you who described it as a 'war'

It's only a conflict if the UK wants that. The EU isn't having a tit for tat relationship with every other third country.

You seem to think the EU is insulting the UK by being ready for Brexit.

Seth Brundle

Hmmm, trade unions dispute claims from DUP (that the unions were concerned about increasing suspicious activity including the recording of number-plate details of staff members)...

Unions deny raising concerns about suspicious activity at port checks
Unions representing coucil workers refute alleged claims referenced by DUP mayor

Ben Done

yagan wrote: »

It's only a conflict if the UK wants that. The EU isn't having a tit for tat relationship with every other third country.

You seem to think the EU is insulting the UK by being ready for Brexit.

I'm not entirely sure what the poster believes.

To his credit, he has been often the sole British voice on the thread, since the late lamented solodeo ('much thanks', as he used to sign off each post).

I'm not entirely convinced though by the seeming inability to take on board the corrections and clarification of what Brexit means from the numerous well informed commentators (e.g. Peregrinus, Lars), and the experts in their fields (e.g. Ambro25) who post on this thread.

It seems at this stage, to me, to be a faux-naïf style, genre Louis Theroux that's just designed to elicit a desired response.

RobMc59

Seth Brundle wrote: »

But we've been told many times that the people of the UK knew what they were voting for.
Hopefully Rob can explain how this particular dividend works for the betterment of the UK.

I've thought about possible replies to this post Seth but to be honest they all sound like sour grapes.
Only thing I will say is I voted to remain in the EU in 2016 and voted Labour in the general election (always have)in the hope they would at least give the UK public the chance of another referendum but we all know how that went.

tubercolossus

RobMc59 wrote: »

Then why did you describe the UK doing exactly the same as petty and stupid?

Because you believe that the EU is being petty and vindictive, and that therefore the UK will respond in kind. Rather than the actual situation, which is that the EU is just applying its rules.

Leroy42

RobMc59 wrote: »

I've thought about possible replies to this post Seth but to be honest they all sound like sour grapes.
Only thing I will say is I voted to remain in the EU in 2016 and voted Labour in the general election (always have)in the hope they would at least give the UK public the chance of another referendum but we all know how that went.

So why are you constantly making it look like this is the EUs fault?

Its all down the the decisions of the UK government. Brexit is down to them. ThecEU have been clear from day 1 what they various options were. That the UK still don't seem to have come to terms to what their choices actually mean.

And you seem to have bought into the lie that its more down to the EU punishing the UK rather than simply outcome of choices.

demfad

RobMc59 wrote: »

I think if its good for the goose its good for the gander.

Rob, there is a problem with British Governance at the moment where they are lying to cover up the disaster that is Brexit.

We knew they would blame the EU for their decision to have the hardest possible deal.

This is going in 5 years now. If you still believe what these Tory liars are telling you then you are beyond help.

Unless they can substantiate what they say with verifiable facts you shout not believe a word they say.

Yet this is exactly what you are doing believing that these customs and legal checks are unneccessary.

Canada import few products into the EU but in very large quantities. These products are covered individually in CETA.

The UK exports and imports 100,000s products with EU. The deal they struck only covered a tiny proportion. To cover them all (suprise suprise) you would have actually TO BE inside the single market. That is how the mammoth trade expanded and diversified.
Now the UK is suddenly outside the single market with no preparation except the narrowest deal on its own insistence.
The EU cannot ignore the legalities and undermine its single market for the UK.
You must see this?

Professor Moriarty

Main headline in Guardian tonight:

Fury at Gove as exports to EU slashed by 68% since Brexit


From the article:

The dramatic drop in the volume of traffic carried on ferries and through the Channel tunnel has been reported to Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove by the Road Haulage Association after a survey of its international members. In a letter to Gove dated 1 February, the RHA’s chief executive, Richard Burnett, also told the minister he and his officials had repeatedly warned over several months of problems and called for measures to lessen difficulties – but had been largely ignored.

And:

Burnett told the Observer that in addition to the 68% fall-off in exports, about 65%-75% of vehicles that had come over from the EU were going back empty because there were no goods for them to return with, due to hold-ups on the UK side, and because some UK companies had either temporarily or permanently halted exports to the EU. “I find it deeply frustrating and annoying that ministers have chosen not to listen to the industry and experts,” he said.

And:

Richard Ballantyne, chief executive of the British Ports Association, said the 68% figure sounded “broadly in line” with his impressions of the drop-off in traffic. He said some but not all of the problems with extra paperwork that caused delays could be overcome in time, although he warned some businesses on both sides would look for new markets rather than try to deal with the added friction. Ballantyne also predicted a new set of difficulties in months to come as the infrastructure needed at the point when the UK introduces full import checks on goods from the EU on 1 July would not, in his view, be ready in time. This raised the prospect of a whole new set of issues affecting imports.

Leroy42

That is something I hadn't fully considered. At present the Brexit impact is limited to exports, since the UK basically left their border entirely unchecked until at least 1 July as they were not ready

What we are seeing in NI is actually a taster of what is to come for the entire UK at that point.

Are UK importers ready for the extra paperwork and costs?

Capt'n Midnight

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Trade with Eu down by 68% https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/06/fury-at-gove-as-exports-to-eu-slashed-by-68-since-brexit

Not to worry this will be balanced by a UK-US trade deal.

Which would increase the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) by between 0.07% and 0.16%, depending on the exact terms of the deal.

And that's the downhill with the wind behind you figures, because the US is applying tariffs to UK imports because the UK are breaking WTO rules with subsidies for Airbus. Because there the 'Special Relationship' mainly exists in the UK's imagination.

listermint

With those sorts of figures I don't see how this can go on. Brexit has been nearly covered over by covid but it can't stay that way it's impossible to cover up those sorts of figures. Businesses won't be able to keep the doors open.

An Ciarraioch

listermint wrote: »

With those sorts of figures I don't see how this can go on. Brexit has been nearly covered over by covid but it can't stay that way it's impossible to cover up those sorts of figures. Businesses won't be able to keep the doors open.

As I heard more than one person quip tonight, Gove obviously meant that the UK had had enough of exports!

cameramonkey

DUP and Tories and Brexit
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/06/ireland-conservatives-dup-union-brexit

Pretty hard stuff for the DUP to read, they took one up the jacksee from the Tories. I would say the will be hurting for a long time.

Zubeneschamali

listermint wrote: »

With those sorts of figures I don't see how this can go on.

It can't. We've been saying it on this thread for years: hard Brexit is unsustainable.

It will get worse, much worse. When it gets Poll Tax bad, miner's strike bad, the Tories will be ejected, and Starmer or whoever will bring England closer to the EU.

6541

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It can't. We've been saying it on this thread for years: hard Brexit is unsustainable.

It will get worse, much worse. When it gets Poll Tax bad, miner's strike bad, the Tories will be ejected, and Starmer or whoever will bring England closer to the EU.

Wow - You are predicting riots ! Interesting times ahead.

fiveleavesleft

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Starmer or whoever will bring England closer to the EU.

Dunno about that. Starmer's on a Patriotism kick, he's chasing the Northern Leave vote. I think re-join is the last thing on his mind.

Strazdas

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It can't. We've been saying it on this thread for years: hard Brexit is unsustainable.

It will get worse, much worse. When it gets Poll Tax bad, miner's strike bad, the Tories will be ejected, and Starmer or whoever will bring England closer to the EU.

It would be fascinating to see Brexit go down in a wall of flames like the Hindenburg i.e. it failing and it being seen by everyone to have failed.

We'd be into unchartered waters, given how deeply the Eurosceptics had immersed themselves into society.

Rain Ascending

listermint wrote: »

With those sorts of figures I don't see how this can go on. Brexit has been nearly covered over by covid but it can't stay that way it's impossible to cover up those sorts of figures. Businesses won't be able to keep the doors open.

To put these figures into context, UK exports roughly £300B to the EU each year. That includes ro-ro, lo-lo, bulk and air freight and services. The data the referred to in the Guardian report definitely doesn't include services and air freight and probably not bulk transport. Not sure about lo-lo (containers mainly, I think). But if you assume that the 68% is the averaged across all these categories (discuss!), this represents a drop of £200B a year.

UK GDP is roughly £2T a year.

Now £1 of exports doesn't translate to £1 of GDP, but this gives a sense of the scale of the issue for the UK economy. Assuming no change (assumption #2!), it's significant.

Also, as Leroy42 points out, later this year, the UK plans to start imposing similar checks on imports -- which in turn will have other (largely negative) impacts on the UK economy.