Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

bobmalooka

RobMc59 wrote: »

Not upset but I can see a tit for tat paperwork nightmare situation for all on the horizon.Obviously this will be viewed here as the UK's fault.

This nightmare scenario is precisely the reason people said Brexit is stupid - and is entirely the UK’s fault

Zubeneschamali

fiveleavesleft wrote: »

I think re-join is the last thing on his mind.

I don't think they'll rejoin for a generation, say 30 years. But a Norway type deal would still be Brexit. The referendum did not oblige them to leave the SM or CU. When trade and jobs get bad enough, they will start moving to closer alignment.

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't think they'll rejoin for a generation, say 30 years. But a Norway type deal would still be Brexit. The referendum did not oblige them to leave the SM or CU. When trade and jobs get bad enough, they will start moving to closer alignment.

I wouldn't be sure. The current climate seems focused on blaming the EU for all ills, there appears to be little or internal review and appreciation of their own part in it.

The letter Gove sent to EU last week, Farage latest tweet, both basically demanded the EU 'Do something ' to fix the mess they had created.

Whether that attitude, and failure to face the truth, is capable of changing is open to speculation but there is nothing to suggest it will happen.

For it to change, the poll numbers need to change. Johnson is in power for 4 years, and the current numbers mean they would do well again. That means, politically, the current system of blaming EU is working.

From the Brexiteers on here, from the media in the UK and the poll numbers, people are more likely to double down on blaming EU for everything rather than Johnson and the government.

One major roadblock is the media itself. Much of it has tied itself completely to Brexit and pointing out the obvious issues will effectively admit they were wrong. Thus the government gets an easy ride.

CelticRambler

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Not to worry this will be balanced by a UK-US trade deal.

Don't forget the new trade deal with Albania.

What's most disturbing about this report is not the dramatic drop in trade, but this comment from a government spokesman:

“We do not recognise the figure provided on exports. Thanks to the hard work of hauliers and traders to prepare for change, disruption at the border has so far been minimal and freight movements are now close to normal levels, despite the Covid-19 pandemic.

Presumably this will be the message to all British subjects for the coming months: don't believe the evidence of your own eyes, ears and balance sheets - everything is normal, there are no problems. I know we've previously referred to GB's new status as on a par with North Korea, but I didn't think the government were serious about going *all* the way down that rabbit hole. :rolleyes:

amacca

CelticRambler wrote: »

Don't forget the new trade deal with Albania.

What's most disturbing about this report is not the dramatic drop in trade, but this comment from a government spokesman:

Presumably this will be the message to all British subjects for the coming months: don't believe the evidence of your own eyes, ears and balance sheets - everything is normal, there are no problems. I know we've previously referred to GB's new status as on a par with North Korea, but I didn't think the government were serious about going *all* the way down that rabbit hole. :rolleyes:

They have to....its their best play. That's what happens when you back your way into a corner.

johnnyskeleton

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It can't. We've been saying it on this thread for years: hard Brexit is unsustainable.

It will get worse, much worse. When it gets Poll Tax bad, miner's strike bad, the Tories will be ejected, and Starmer or whoever will bring England closer to the EU.

I wish I could agree with you, but sadly I can't see the motivation behind Brexit dissipating any time soon. More likely, they will continue on the path of blaming the EU.

Out of morbid fascination i occasionally look at the UK Brexit press, commentators etc about Brexit. Ever since Brexit happened, and it's been mostly bad news, the pro-Brexit press/commentariat have focussed on the Astra-Zenica issue (which is being billed as their big win) and on the supposed collapse of the EU.

My prediction is that as things in the UK get worse, their desire to see the EU collapse, to be replaced, no doubt, by a UK led similar organisation, will come to the forefront and the Blitz mentality will take over.

The vast majority of people who cheerled and voted for Brexit will never, ever admit to themselves that Brexit was a bad idea.

demfad

listermint wrote: »

With those sorts of figures I don't see how this can go on. Brexit has been nearly covered over by covid but it can't stay that way it's impossible to cover up those sorts of figures. Businesses won't be able to keep the doors open.

The Tory's judge their ability to cover up the figures by the poll numbers.
125k dead from Covid-19, Exports down 68% due to Brexit and they are still on par with Labour.
They are controlling most mainstream media outlets including a major Tory right wing donor now as director of the BBC. Paul Dacre the former fascistic editor of the Daily Mail is head of Ofcom.
Propaganda focuses on lying and manipulating the closing chapter of bad stories.
Covid will take the blame for Brexit and the last chapter of Covid will be the propaganda about the vaccine rollout.
Surely in a FPTP system they must be confident of getting the 42% they need another straightforward majority next election?

demfad

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't think they'll rejoin for a generation, say 30 years. But a Norway type deal would still be Brexit. The referendum did not oblige them to leave the SM or CU. When trade and jobs get bad enough, they will start moving to closer alignment.

The logical stepping stone out would have been the scaffolding of EFTA and then progress further if desired (it would not have been desired thus the Brexiteers need for immediate hard Brexit).

From the current position Starmer has alluded to closer alignement. Ever closer alignment from here = Switzerland.
To save that time they should just rejoin SM/CU. That would depend on the political situation: with the public rejoin is now 58% V 38% 'we were right to leave'.
Crucially in 2021 the Tories have the ability to use disinformation to win elections and have installed loyalists in key media oversight roles.
The normal rules do not apply and have not applied since Brexit. UK Governance is closer to 1930s Italy than 1990s UK right now.

Sam Russell

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

My prediction is that as things in the UK get worse, their desire to see the EU collapse, to be replaced, no doubt, by a UK led similar organisation, will come to the forefront and the Blitz mentality will take over.

I knew someone who lived through the blitz in London (throughout the war - their house was bombed) who said that if the V2s had continued for another month, London would have collapsed - so bad was the morale. People who talk of 'the blitz spirit' never lived through it - it was dreadful.

It is very easy to feel courageous when many miles from the front line or when the shooting stops. The people who lose their business or jobs will not be too happy with Brexit, no matter who is blamed by the Brexiteers.

Akrasia

RobMc59 wrote: »

I think if its good for the goose its good for the gander.

The EU are protecting our customs Union from the threat of grey imports from the UK. If the UK thought there was a risk of the EU exporting sub standard or diseased food and animal products then they would be right to insist on inspections on goods and documentation coming into their territory

In fact, there is a very good chance that there is smuggling going on right now, the UK have basically opened their side of the border because they do not have the infrastructure to control it. (So much for taking back control)

The UK need the imports from Europe in order to stock their supermarket shelves with basic ingredients and food, while much of UK industry would grind to a halt without imports of parts and materials from the EU

Akrasia

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Trade with Eu down by 68% https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/06/fury-at-gove-as-exports-to-eu-slashed-by-68-since-brexit

Perversely enough despite 110k deaths Tories must be delighted because in a normal year this alone would have brought down a government

From that article ‘a government spokesperson’ is quoted as saying
“ We do not recognise the figure provided on exports”
This is Pravda level nonsense.

Detritus70

Akrasia wrote: »

From that article ‘a government spokesperson’ is quoted as saying
“ We do not recognise the figure provided on exports”
This is Pravda level nonsense.

I think we've reached Comical Ali by now.

foxyladyxx

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

I wish I could agree with you, but sadly I can't see the motivation behind Brexit dissipating any time soon. More likely, they will continue on the path of blaming the EU.

Out of morbid fascination i occasionally look at the UK Brexit press, commentators etc about Brexit. Ever since Brexit happened, and it's been mostly bad news, the pro-Brexit press/commentariat have focussed on the Astra-Zenica issue (which is being billed as their big win) and on the supposed collapse of the EU.

My prediction is that as things in the UK get worse, their desire to see the EU collapse, to be replaced, no doubt, by a UK led similar organisation, will come to the forefront and the Blitz mentality will take over.

The vast majority of people who cheerled and voted for Brexit will never, ever admit to themselves that Brexit was a bad idea.

As Mark Twain famously said ''it is easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled''...look at Rob!!

Zubeneschamali

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

The vast majority of people who cheerled and voted for Brexit will never, ever admit to themselves that Brexit was a bad idea.

The ones who cheered, I agree. But lots and lots of people voted for Brexit who now regret it. Polls ever since the referendum have increasingly shown that the public think it is a mistake.

I don't predict some huge change of mind, back in the EU by Christmas sort of thing. Instead, as waves of businesses go broke and factories close, people will start to agree that this policy, this version of Brexit is bad, and the next PM should dial it back a bit and align more with the EU to help trade.

Over time, money will talk.

Sam Russell

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Over time, money will talk.

Always follow the money. As someone once said - 'It's the economy, Stupid'

breezy1985

Sam Russell wrote: »

Always follow the money. As someone once said - 'It's the economy, Stupid'

Ya but as someone far less intelligent once said "f**k business"

reslfj

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Trade with Eu down by 68% https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/06/fury-at-gove-as-exports-to-eu-slashed-by-68-since-brexit

Sure, 68% is a huge figure, but it's in volume and not in value.


Lars

Irish Praetorian

reslfj wrote: »

Sure, 68% is a huge figure, but it's in volume and not in value.


Lars

Yeah and in my role as cold water throwing pro EU poster, I do feel obliged to point out this figure is based on a comparison with January last year, pre (mostly) COVID. Ideally one might find figures for the preceding six months to get a sense of how much is COVID and how much is Brexit, but Im snuggled up in bed atm and cant be bothered.

Leonard Hofstadter

Sam Russell wrote: »

Always follow the money. As someone once said - 'It's the economy, Stupid'

If the past few years have taught us anything, it's that it's definitely not all about the economy any more, and I don't just mean the UK. If it was about the economy, Brexit would never have succeeded, Trump would never have been elected, and closer to home, the Shinners would never have got the highest FPV of any party in a general election in this country.

yagan

Interesting review of Britain Alone: The Path from Suez to Brexit

The bookends are Suez and Brexit, and this book posits that both are symptoms of the same dilemma. The condition was most famously diagnosed by Harry Truman’s secretary of state Dean Acheson, who remarked half a dozen years after the botched attempt to retake the Suez canal that Britain had “lost an empire but not yet found a role”.

It stung at the time, and in the decades afterwards remained an open question – one that British leaders usually struggled to answer. How does a state that spent centuries controlling large parts of the globe accept that it has lost control?

That seems to the real struggle of Brexit, if Britain can't control the EU then it must fight it.

Capt'n Midnight

demfad wrote: »

Surely in a FPTP system they must be confident of getting the 42% they need another straightforward majority next election?

They can get 10 votes or thereabouts from the DUP by threatening a border poll.

Scottish independence would mean a reduction of 50 opposition votes. An unpopular move but given how they've ridden roughshod over 'the constitution' and tradition its not beyond the bounds of possibility. And it would save £10Bn a year from central funding depending on who you believe.

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

I knew someone who lived through the blitz in London (throughout the war - their house was bombed) who said that if the V2s had continued for another month, London would have collapsed - so bad was the morale. People who talk of 'the blitz spirit' never lived through it - it was dreadful.

Other cities went through worse and continued. German industrial output peaked in 1944 and the limiting factor was shortages of imports not the morale of the workers. Antwerp suffered a lot more

It's amazing what people will put up with when they've no choice especially if it comes on gradually. Like Brexit with it's thousand cuts. The UK has announced cuts of tens of billions in Foreign Aid. HS2 is another place where lots of money could be saved to balance the budget.

Strazdas

Sam Russell wrote: »

I knew someone who lived through the blitz in London (throughout the war - their house was bombed) who said that if the V2s had continued for another month, London would have collapsed - so bad was the morale. People who talk of 'the blitz spirit' never lived through it - it was dreadful.

It is very easy to feel courageous when many miles from the front line or when the shooting stops. The people who lose their business or jobs will not be too happy with Brexit, no matter who is blamed by the Brexiteers.

I've read similar reports. People were anxious and very depressed and often resorted to chain smoking and heavy drinking to try and cope with the stress of being bombed every night.

One thing that needs to be watched is what will happen if Brexit directly leads to job losses and lay offs. Very easy for the Brexiteers to dominate the narrative when nothing was actually happening : they having to defend the fallout of their political ideology wrecking people's livelihoods is quite another.

yagan

Strazdas wrote: »

they having to defend the fallout of their political ideology wrecking people's livelihoods is quite another.

The people wish to be deceived. Everything that goes wrong will be blamed on the EU for not being subservient to Britain's needs.

Sam Russell

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Other cities went through worse and continued. German industrial output peaked in 1944 and the limiting factor was shortages of imports not the morale of the workers. Antwerp suffered a lot more

It's amazing what people will put up with when they've no choice especially if it comes on gradually. Like Brexit with it's thousand cuts. The UK has announced cuts of tens of billions in Foreign Aid. HS2 is another place where lots of money could be saved to balance the budget.

You equate Brexit with suffering - not unicorns and the sunny uplands that were promised. I do not think that the suffering you predict will come on gradually or slowly, but rapidly. Ask the fishermen or the cheese exporter, or the ones told by the government agency to set up business in the EU.

The simplicity of life within the SM and CU meant you did not need any extra paperwork to do business with Antwerp or Berlin, or Rome, you just did it. No customs paperwork, no SPS inspections - just invoice and ship.

Who would have thought that leaving the SM and CU would mean that you would need to produce proof you satisfied SM requirements and made customs entries with proper invoices, declarations of customs codes and weights? Why did they not tell everyone? Who knew?

Well, ask Gove, and Raab (mind you he did not know much at all) or Davis.

RobMc59

Sam Russell wrote: »

I knew someone who lived through the blitz in London (throughout the war - their house was bombed) who said that if the V2s had continued for another month, London would have collapsed - so bad was the morale. People who talk of 'the blitz spirit' never lived through it - it was dreadful.

It is very easy to feel courageous when many miles from the front line or when the shooting stops. The people who lose their business or jobs will not be too happy with Brexit, no matter who is blamed by the Brexiteers.

Interesting post Sam which I read whilst visiting my mother who lived though ww2,initially up north in Wallasey which is just across the river from Liverpool,nestled amongst docks and a naval shipyard,I'm sure you can imagine what that must have been like. I asked her about whether they thought Britain should have tried to make peace with the Germans and she looked at me as if I was round the twist and said no,we had to go on till the end.
She also went on to tell me about her first husband who was from Southend-on-sea but stationed on a minesweeper on the Mersey.
She said there were many foreign ships stationed on the river,her husband was on a Belgian minesweeper,the only English person on there.The German bombers would drop mines into the river which they then had to find.When there were no mines they would go fishing for scallops and share them out amongst themselves (no problem with 3rd party nation status back then!).

embraer170

Interesting article in the FT about the businesses in the UK benefiting from Brexit.

Not a whole lot of them apparently.

https://www.ft.com/content/6d86951c-a4af-4d0b-95da-7856d4db8639

McGiver

CelticRambler wrote:

Presumably this will be the message to all British subjects for the coming months: don't believe the evidence of your own eyes, ears and balance sheets - everything is normal, there are no problems. I know we've previously referred to GB's new status as on a par with North Korea, but I didn't think the government were serious about going *all* the way down that rabbit hole.

This is truly 1984-esque. And (Bela)Russian-esque. Scary stuff. What is more scary is that there's no dissent in England, almost none at all.
Keep calm and carry on towards an authoritarian Britain.

ancapailldorcha

McGiver wrote: »

This is truly 1984-esque. And (Bela)Russian-esque. Scary stuff. What is more scary is that there's no dissent in England, almost none at all.
Keep calm and carry on towards an authoritarian Britain.

There's plenty of dissent. It's suppressed by an unfair electoral system. Johnson won less than 45% of the vote and his reward is unfettered power because of how centralised the country is.

Writing to shire Brexiter MP's is a waste of time because they know these are safe seats. There's not much that can be done except wait for the pandemic to settle a bit and then those who can can leave. For the rest, there's the 2024 election.

McGiver

ancapailldorcha wrote:

There's plenty of dissent. It's suppressed by an unfair electoral system. Johnson won less than 45% of the vote and his reward is unfettered power because of how centralised the country is.

Campaigns? Demonstrations? Civil disobedience? Petitions? I don't see anything.

The Remain side did two marches. That just won't cut it if you're dealing with such a toxic regime.

I know the dissent options are somewhat limited by lockdown but...