Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

redcup342

Deleted User wrote: »

Nothing wrong with selling locally, perhaps they should have started sooner.

Definitely, they'll have to offer it for dirt cheap if people are going to buy it though.

Or Paint the fish in the colors of the Union Jack so people buy the fish out of Patriotism ?

dogbert27

dogbert27 wrote: »

There isn't anything wrong with selling locally. Being in the EU wasn't preventing that.

True, but being out of the EU the lucrative export market is now closed to them.

dogbert27

Deleted User wrote: »

True, but being out of the EU the lucrative export market is now closed to them.

So they now sell locally to a client they think won't really like the merchandise they have so they'll rebrand it.

They're sales will not be to the same volume that they could export on an annual basis and they are being propped by a government bail out essentially.

What will happen when the government stops subsidising and they face the reality that their livelihoods are essentially over from what they knew?

ambro25

Deleted User wrote: »

English friend who is a qualified teacher is planning on moving to Italy later this year.. Is this realistic with Brexit? He voted for it and I've pointed out how odd it was for him to vote for it when his life plan is to retire in Portugal, but he seems unfazed and doesn't think he'll have any problem moving to Italy.

(...)

Well, as an FYI with reference to this relatively recent, real-life example, we've just put the kibosh on my M-i-L moving here with us.

She would meet the minimum income threshold, but gets wiped out by the annual private healthcare insurance. So that's that.

I'll spare you the 'not sure if Brexit benefit' Philip J. Fry meme.

Lemming

RobMc59 wrote: »

Since the 2016 referendum the only noticible change here is the dip in Sterling.
I believe its still too early to call the effects of brexit which I understand some posters find irritating as they would like to call it after a month.

rock22 wrote: »

I have messages from two companies in UK who have stopped exporting to Ireland, and the rest of the EU, until the "Brexit thing gets sorted". In one case, they say their couriers have lost track of three parcels, stuck somewhere in a warehouse in UK awaiting haulage to EU. The courier are reporting such delays they they cannot give them a idea when they might be able to forward the packages. These are all engineer products so the delay won't cause any deterioration but obviously a cost they don't want. My limited understanding of haulage would suggest that the virtual ban on 'groupage' is causing a lot of small exported major problems.

So Rob, i think it might depend on the industry you are involved in or whether you are involved in cross border trade. But certain people have definitely notice the impact.

Just to back up rock22's comments above [to Rob]; speaking as a consumer I have noticed stuff being held up for restock for weeks on end from EU manufacturers (CPU waterblocks made by EKWB in my case) with constant revision of expected delivery dates suggesting customs issues, as opposed to other stuff coming from Asia (RAM from Taiwan) that could well just be down to Covid disruptions. It's little, niche, things like computer parts that I have noticed, besides some supermarket items here in Sheffield being a bit more sparse.

Edit: oh yeah, forgot .. Bike/parts prices. Oh yeah. "Country of Origin" rules have kicked the living sh*t out of the bicycle industry in the UK. That bike you like? That'll be 20% increase. In mountain biking terms, that's easily into the thousand pound price jump category for higher end full-suspension bikes. As for E-bikes I wont go there.

Of course that's first world consumer problems next to someone who either has or is facing the very real prospect of unemployment because of the new, permanent regulatory regime ("teething problems" HAH!) that the UK government has championed and sold as a magnificent oven-baked deal. For those people Rob, Brexit has most certainly already delivered a very severe "negative" and it's been 5 weeks so ready to be called from their perspective already so not really sure how much more time is needed to recognise that fact, save to see just how bad it can get.

Akrasia wrote: »

The 2008 crash destroyed a generation by taking away opportunity. People coming through the education system who qualified in 2008-2012 had the rug pulled from underneath them, no prospect of getting a decent job in the area they trained in, even people like nurses and teachers were divided from the rest of their colleagues and given worse pay and conditions and told they were lucky to have a job

Anyone who had trained to work in the community sector had no chance of finding a job as funding for everything got cut and the glut of unemployment meant that people were put on ‘work for free’ schemes like job path and CE schemes

I personally qualified with a Masters around then, the previous graduate class all got well paid jobs soon after graduating, of my graduation class, only 1 person found work in the field, others emigrated, I ended up working in a call Centre to keep food on the table in a job ‘I was lucky to have’

This is what faces the class of 2021 in the UK, and unless there is a radical political change, it’s going to be a dark time for the youth of England, Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland and they don’t even have the safety valve of a bigger neighbor next door to emigrate to

Not just the youth although they will be disproportionately affected. For perspective, I graduated with a degree into the dotcom bubble collapse so found it difficult to get a job; I had gone through lengthy interview processes with a couple of big IT names who then promptly went into global hiring freezes and/or started laying off staff wholesale, so took a few months more to find a job but I did albeit at a much lower salary than previously was considered average for an IT graduate at the time in 2001. Fast forward to 2008; as a by-now computer programmer with several years experience under my belt I experienced the misery that was 2008 when I was made redundant (last in first out) and finding a job in that sh1t-show was a challenge despite having some very good recruiter contacts. In both cases (2001 and 2008) I owe my ability to find employment in no small part to having contacts who put me in front of their bosses for interview despite those companies not actively looking for new staff.

For anyone who had a job through both events they probably didn't notice too much, but it's easy to think "I'm alright Jack" until you are not. As 2021 progresses I can see more and more UK companies holding off on hiring new staff for as long as possible, and/or shifting employment outside of the UK. When companies get into that mindset, you can be the best candidate in the world but you'll be knocked back, at least a few months if not indefinitely whilst they prevaricate and/or then decide to hire abroad.

PeadarCo

[Deleted User] wrote: »

True, but being out of the EU the lucrative export market is now closed to them.

Which means job losses and some businesses closing down. A lot of the companies you are talking about will have been selling in the UK anyway. But now instead of selling to market of nearly 500 million, they will be selling to a market of 65 million odd. That's a massive downsize. There is no way they will be able to recoup the lost sales in the short to medium term. If an company is anyway seriously reliant on imports the situation becomes even worse. Imports are now more expensive and due to longer transit time, a higher level of working capital is required to operate. None of which are good things.

As the poster you responded to alluded to if the UK really was a profitable market for a company they would have been selling to UK customers even when the UK was in the EU. However Brexit makes selling even to UK customers more expensive/less profitable if a company is anyway reliant on imports.

Widdensushi

dogbert27 wrote: »

"Rebrand is aimed at drumming up more business in Britain in the wake of Brexit"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9239819/Cornish-fishermen-rebrand-catches-persuade-UK-customers-buy-them.html

More nonsense stories. Brexit had nothing to do with allowing them to rebrand their fish. They could have done this at any time as the article shows when they rebranded other fish. :rolleyes:

Very difficult to change people's preferences with regards the fish or cuts of meat they eat. It would need to be very cheap or free to promote different behavior. The reality is that covid is affecting their market as much as brexit. The market for megrim is poor whenever the schools in Spain are on holiday, the school dinners take a large amount of them. So with the schools closed it is difficult to sell them, add in the redtape and it becomes impossible.

redcup342

Widdensushi wrote: »

Very difficult to change people's preferences with regards the fish or cuts of meat they eat. It would need to be very cheap or free to promote different behavior. The reality is that covid is affecting their market as much as brexit. The market for megrim is poor whenever the schools in Spain are on holiday, the school dinners take a large amount of them. So with the schools closed it is difficult to sell them, add in the redtape and it becomes impossible.

It's about as easy as convincing people to drink beer instead of wine.

ancapailldorcha

Lemming wrote: »

For anyone who had a job through both events they probably didn't notice too much, but it's easy to think "I'm alright Jack" until you are not. As 2021 progresses I can see more and more UK companies holding off on hiring new staff for as long as possible, and/or shifting employment outside of the UK. When companies get into that mindset, you can be the best candidate in the world but you'll be knocked back, at least a few months if not indefinitely whilst they prevaricate and/or then decide to hire abroad.

The argument for Brexit based on the sky not falling in being the same sort of justification one could use for elective limb removal or some similar folly ought to indicate how weak it is.

I work at a research institute and we've certainly lost some staff to the continent. We also lost one of our bigger groups but mostly, day-to-day, things haven't really changed. I ordered a ton of stuff for our lab pre-January so I've not experienced any sort of a shortage on that front.

I still get calls from recruiters looking to get me to apply for Pharma and startup biotech jobs so that sector looks to be unscathed for now at least. This wouldn't be related to covid as I'm talking about advanced cellular and molecular immunotherapeutics as opposed to vaccine development. Some of the startups even seem to have dedicated "talent acquisition managers", what ever those are when they're at home.

I've looked at the continent for jobs but I'm not sure if I'm using good sites for listings. Most jobs require native speakers that I've found. A mate works just south of Paris in biotech but swapping London for an equally expensive substitute sans langue amidst a pandemic might not be a sound move. Said mate had integration issues despite his employer conducting their affairs in English.

As for the young taking the brunt of it, it has always been thus. Even when the restrictions are rolled back, we'll get treated to boomers hopping on planes to sunny destinations while those working will have to wait for their immunisations. If companies start winding down their British operations in favour of the continent that that's going to make getting a start all but impossible for younger folk. I was lucky to get my first gig in Oxford back at the start of the decade. Now, though, I've no idea what I'd do.

Akrasia

Akrasia wrote: »

The 2008 crash destroyed a generation by taking away opportunity. People coming through the education system who qualified in 2008-2012 had the rug pulled from underneath them, no prospect of getting a decent job in the area they trained in, even people like nurses and teachers were divided from the rest of their colleagues and given worse pay and conditions and told they were lucky to have a job

Anyone who had trained to work in the community sector had no chance of finding a job as funding for everything got cut and the glut of unemployment meant that people were put on ‘work for free’ schemes like job path and CE schemes

I personally qualified with a Masters around then, the previous graduate class all got well paid jobs soon after graduating, of my graduation class, only 1 person found work in the field, others emigrated, I ended up working in a call Centre to keep food on the table in a job ‘I was lucky to have’

This is what faces the class of 2021 in the UK, and unless there is a radical political change, it’s going to be a dark time for the youth of England, Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland and they don’t even have the safety valve of a bigger neighbor next door to emigrate to

I disagree. I finished college in 2014 and things were still in the ****ter here, I think 2 people in my graduating class stayed in the same subject area, did a Masters and are working away. The rest did teaching, got a just above minimum wage civil service job, ****ed off to Australia, whatever.
It's not going to be that kind of famine for the Brits (at least not due to Brexit). It'll mean for each 10 jobs there would have been there'll only be 8 or 9. And they'll be lower paying. There'll probably be less space for progression and there'll be less focus on the UK by multinationals than there would have been otherwise. Even among those who were against Brexit a lot won't know for sure what the impact was because they'll be comparing to hypotheticals.

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I still get calls from recruiters looking to get me to apply for Pharma and startup biotech jobs so that sector looks to be unscathed for now at least. This wouldn't be related to covid as I'm talking about advanced cellular and molecular immunotherapeutics as opposed to vaccine development. Some of the startups even seem to have dedicated "talent acquisition managers", what ever those are when they're at home.

I've looked at the continent for jobs but I'm not sure if I'm using good sites for listings. Most jobs require native speakers that I've found. A mate works just south of Paris in biotech but swapping London for an equally expensive substitute sans langue amidst a pandemic might not be a sound move. Said mate had integration issues despite his employer conducting their affairs in English.

If you're still looking to get out of the UK then Holland may be a good place to look. Few of my mates (from 2 completely different circles) moved there a few years ago for tech/engineering stuff. Almost all the companies they would have dealt with worked exclusively in English. They have some tax advantages on offer to high-ish earners as well. Cost of living isn't super-low but outside Amsterdam rent is reasonable and things are pretty stable.

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

If you're still looking to get out of the UK then Holland may be a good place to look. Few of my mates (from 2 completely different circles) moved there a few years ago for tech/engineering stuff. Almost all the companies they would have dealt with worked exclusively in English. They have some tax advantages on offer to high-ish earners as well. Cost of living isn't super-low but outside Amsterdam rent is reasonable and things are pretty stable.

Thanks B. I've another year and a bit left on the aul contract so there's no urgency. I'd be sad to leave but if the trickle continues and/or gets worse then that option might become more necessary.

CelticRambler

I would think that the effects of Brexit are being felt most keenly by those who were already making the best use of their Four Freedoms; while those who were limited to an English parochial lifestyle won't feel much of difference for quite some time to come - if at all. Amongst the English people I know - in England and in the EU - right now, their lives are far more disrupted by Covid control measures than by Brexit. The reports that we're seeing on the news and elsewhere (mostly elsewhere, in fact ... :rolleyes: ) appear to be quite tightly limited to the immediate effect on business, so still at one or two degrees of separation from Joe Public. I'm treating farming and fishing as businesses in this context.

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I disagree. I finished college in 2014 and things were still in the ****ter here, I think 2 people in my graduating class stayed in the same subject area, did a Masters and are working away. The rest did teaching, got a just above minimum wage civil service job, ****ed off to Australia, whatever.
It's not going to be that kind of famine for the Brits (at least not due to Brexit). It'll mean for each 10 jobs there would have been there'll only be 8 or 9. And they'll be lower paying. There'll probably be less space for progression and there'll be less focus on the UK by multinationals than there would have been otherwise. Even among those who were against Brexit a lot won't know for sure what the impact was because they'll be comparing to hypotheticals.

10 to 9 or 8 is a bit of an understatement tbh. I'd say that's on the ultra Rosey side and even goes against the UK government's own assessment in loss of trade.

Even current stats of drops of 68 percent of EU exports wouldnt support new job creation dropping down such a miniscule amount.

Sam Russell

I would think the current effect of Covid has a greater effect on the greater amount of people at the present time. However, those impacted by Brexit are seriously impacted.

Fishing, farming, exporters, importers, logistics, all these are being jerked around and not at all happy. Those in normal type employment are either working normally or working from home or of Covid lay off. Not many of those have additional Brexit worries of any consequence.

However, when the jobs start going, that is when the numbers and effects will rise significantly.

tubercolossus

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55997641

"Brexit much worse than expected", says JD Sports chairman

Edit: got JD confused with Sports Direct.

tubercolossus

84% of Daily Express 'readers' think "Brexit deal should be scrapped and EU rules re-negotiated". Not necessarily significant except as indicative of the toxic media bubble a large cohort of the British population inhabit.

https://twitter.com/CliveWismayer/status/1359154238723657730

Hurrache

The British angry letter to the EU on the subject of fish refers to the wrong form. They're really on top of their game when it comes to what they signed up to.

https://twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1359151826688426007

listermint

listermint wrote: »

10 to 9 or 8 is a bit of an understatement tbh. I'd say that's on the ultra Rosey side and even goes against the UK government's own assessment in loss of trade.

Even current stats of drops of 68 percent of EU exports wouldnt support new job creation dropping down such a miniscule amount.

You think a prediction of a 10-20% (+losses through lower wages) is ultra rosy? I very much disagree.

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You think a prediction of a 10-20% (+losses through lower wages) is ultra rosy? I very much disagree.

I do think it's rosy yes. And considering I believe somewhere like 1 million people have left the UK over the last two years . It seems people are underestimating the scale of cutting yourself off to your biggest market

Zubeneschamali

listermint wrote: »

And considering I believe somewhere like 1 million people have left the UK over the last two years .

1.3 million foreign born people left from the last quarter of 2019 to last quarter of 2020. London alone lost 700,000 people.

Covid shutdowns of hospitality and retail are partly to blame, but how many will come back to a hostile environment?

Nody

tubercolossus wrote: »

84% of Daily Express 'readers' think "Brexit deal should be scrapped and EU rules re-negotiated". Not necessarily significant except as indicative of the toxic media bubble a large cohort of the British population inhabit.

But is the issue not more in the question asked (i.e. asked instead would Boris be able to successfully negotiate a better deal with EU would likely get a different answer)? I mean if you asked any male in the Baywatch era "Should Pamela have sex with you all night long?" you'd get similar answers to the question. If it's realistic or not is not the issue but rather how the question was phrased in the first place.

Zubeneschamali

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

1.3 million foreign born people left from the last quarter of 2019 to last quarter of 2020. London alone lost 700,000 people.

Covid shutdowns of hospitality and retail are partly to blame, but how many will come back to a hostile environment?

Phrased like that, very few I would imagine, getting back in would require work permits & visas etc.

Leroy42

I see David Frost is out saying that the EU are struggling to adjust to the reality that the UK is now an independent nation.

TBH, it seems to me that no matter what the EU does, it will never be enough to assuage those that want to blame the EU.

If I was there, I would simply ignore everything now, including vaccines, and see how it pans out over the next few months. The deal is done, time to make the best out of what was agreed. No point in extensions, understandings, relaxation of rules. Fundamentally, the UK are simply not prepared to accept that Brexit creates long-lasting and difficult problems that the UK now need to find solutions to.

In some cases that will mean accepting the end of some businesses, and maybe industries, and the creation of new opportunities and how they will take advantage of them.

listermint

Leroy42 wrote: »

I see David Frost is out saying that the EU are struggling to adjust to the reality that the UK is now an independent nation.

TBH, it seems to me that no matter what the EU does, it will never be enough to assuage those that want to blame the EU.

If I was there, I would simply ignore everything now, including vaccines, and see how it pans out over the next few months. The deal is done, time to make the best out of what was agreed. No point in extensions, understandings, relaxation of rules. Fundamentally, the UK are simply not prepared to accept that Brexit creates long-lasting and difficult problems that the UK now need to find solutions to.

In some cases that will mean accepting the end of some businesses, and maybe industries, and the creation of new opportunities and how they will take advantage of them.

Bad actors the lot of them.

Anyone remotely connected to the ERG is tainted.

Seth Brundle

Brexit now leading to the creation of more jobs in the EU, this time from the British Meat Producers Assoc.
The article refers to how is it simply uneconomical to send meat abroad in the traditional way (using grouped loads) and so the BMPA will create companies within the EU and NI that will buy the loads from GB and then sell them on.
So, another layer within the chain for some exports from GB.
One thing mentioned by the chief executive of the BMPA was that "The new system is adding an average of 30 hours into the (export) process; and costs are now around 60% higher than last year"

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1359170415957049349

Akrasia

Deleted User wrote: »

I disagree. I finished college in 2014 and things were still in the ****ter here, I think 2 people in my graduating class stayed in the same subject area, did a Masters and are working away. The rest did teaching, got a just above minimum wage civil service job, ****ed off to Australia, whatever.
It's not going to be that kind of famine for the Brits (at least not due to Brexit). It'll mean for each 10 jobs there would have been there'll only be 8 or 9. And they'll be lower paying. There'll probably be less space for progression and there'll be less focus on the UK by multinationals than there would have been otherwise. Even among those who were against Brexit a lot won't know for sure what the impact was because they'll be comparing to hypotheticals.

Thats why I said the cost is in the lost opportunities.

If you leave education and go into a buoyant economy where there is a good flow of labour, new companies being created and people moving through the labourforce it creates opportunities for people to get experience in the areas they are interested and educated in

If you leave education and go into a depressed economy, with low job creation and much greater competition for jobs, the whole labour market grinds to a halt, Companies stop hiring, people are afraid to leave their current jobs in case the new job doesn't work out, starting wages are cut because demand fr work exceeds the supply of jobs, then there are the redundancies where skilled experienced workers are competing against young people/inexperienced workers and each other for the few vacancies may exist

People without experience/specific skills that take time to develop and new graduates into a depressed economy find it really hard to get a foothold. If they don't get work that they specifically trained for, they're often left with minimum wage temp or zero hours contract work where the prospects of promotion are almost nill, and the risk of being let go is much higher

And to compound all of this, people who start in the labour force on lower income take decades to catch up, if they ever manage to. If you leave school and walk into a 40k Salary, after 5 year with cost of living wage increases at 5 % you're year 5 salary is 48k, after 10 years, he'll be on 62k

If you start work on minimum wage, 19k, after 5 years, you're only on 23k
After 10 years you're only on 29k
When you lost the opportunity to get a decent job in your 20s, you're then locked out of opportunities to own your own home, to pursue other educational or training opportunities, expand your network of contacts and experiences all of which feed into reduced opportunities later on in life

Brexit is heartbreaking because it is a huge transfer of hope and opportunity from the next generation of people to a small number of extremely wealthy oligarchs who can use their wealth to take advantage of the collapsing economy around them
Every business closure is a chance for them to buy those assets in a fire sale, every underemployed person is a chance for them to sell 'payday loans' at extortionate interest rates. Rather than having to import cheap labour from abroad, they're just going to convert the UK's young people into a supply of cheap domestic labour, a captive audience who they can squeeze until they are dry

peter kern

tubercolossus wrote: »

84% of Daily Express 'readers' think "Brexit deal should be scrapped and EU rules re-negotiated". Not necessarily significant except as indicative of the toxic media bubble a large cohort of the British population inhabit.

https://twitter.com/CliveWismayer/status/1359154238723657730

finally, at least we know who "won" the brexit negotiations

Strazdas

Akrasia wrote: »

Thats why I said the cost is in the lost opportunities.

If you leave education and go into a buoyant economy where there is a good flow of labour, new companies being created and people moving through the labourforce it creates opportunities for people to get experience in the areas they are interested and educated in

If you leave education and go into a depressed economy, with low job creation and much greater competition for jobs, the whole labour market grinds to a halt, Companies stop hiring, people are afraid to leave their current jobs in case the new job doesn't work out, starting wages are cut because demand fr work exceeds the supply of jobs, then there are the redundancies where skilled experienced workers are competing against young people/inexperienced workers and each other for the few vacancies may exist

People without experience/specific skills that take time to develop and new graduates into a depressed economy find it really hard to get a foothold. If they don't get work that they specifically trained for, they're often left with minimum wage temp or zero hours contract work where the prospects of promotion are almost nill, and the risk of being let go is much higher

And to compound all of this, people who start in the labour force on lower income take decades to catch up, if they ever manage to. If you leave school and walk into a 40k Salary, after 5 year with cost of living wage increases at 5 % you're year 5 salary is 48k, after 10 years, he'll be on 62k

If you start work on minimum wage, 19k, after 5 years, you're only on 23k
After 10 years you're only on 29k
When you lost the opportunity to get a decent job in your 20s, you're then locked out of opportunities to own your own home, to pursue other educational or training opportunities, expand your network of contacts and experiences all of which feed into reduced opportunities later on in life

Brexit is heartbreaking because it is a huge transfer of hope and opportunity from the next generation of people to a small number of extremely wealthy oligarchs who can use their wealth to take advantage of the collapsing economy around them
Every business closure is a chance for them to buy those assets in a fire sale, every underemployed person is a chance for them to sell 'payday loans' at extortionate interest rates. Rather than having to import cheap labour from abroad, they're just going to convert the UK's young people into a supply of cheap domestic labour, a captive audience who they can squeeze until they are dry

I'm trying to work out how all of this hasn't led to civil unrest, strikes and even riots on the streets.

I suppose the one big difference between this and the Poll Tax riots is 1990 is that the Poll Tax was very unpopular and seen as unfair, even among Conservative voters and Thatcher supporters. England thirty years later is much more polarised, with the right wing half of the country, plus the press fully behind Johnson's regime and the idea of Brexit. Maybe the Brexit ideology trumps everything, even people's very livelihoods. Perhaps too, millions are buying into the argument that to oppose Brexit is somehow an act of treachery and 'defying the will of the British (English) people'.

Leroy42

Strazdas wrote: »

I'm trying to work out how all of this hasn't led to civil unrest, strikes and even riots on the streets.

I suppose the one big difference between this and the Poll Tax riots is 1990 is that the Poll Tax was very unpopular and seen as unfair, even among Conservative voters and Thatcher supporters. England thirty years later is much more polarised, with the right wing half of the country, plus the press fully behind Johnson's regime and the idea of Brexit. Maybe the Brexit ideology trumps everything, even people's very livelihoods. Perhaps too, millions are buying into the argument that to oppose Brexit is somehow an act of treachery and 'defying the will of the British (English) people'.

They are simply too deep into now. Even rejoiners know that to rejoin would involve serious capitulation to EU (Euro etc) and they have gone this far they simply have to let it play out.

Brexiteers simply can't accept even a smidgen of doubt, of regret. This is exactly what they wanted, and if not then its all the dastardly EU fault.

Any minute now it will all be worth it.