Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Akesh

A lot of the problems around Brexit would be solved if the British could terms with being a third country to the EU. Today, we had George Eustice complaining about the EU bullying British Shellfish exporters and, of course, the presenter failed to point out obvious points to Mr. Eustice such as it's a phytosanitary standard, not a "shellfish ban", and this is exactly what the UK voted for, to be free of the single market.

We also had the pleasure of Andrew Bailey, the governor of the bank of England, complaining about 'Brussels' blocking London from it's markets. The Bank of England want full, unfettered access without telling the EU how it wishes to regulate/deregulate it's financial markets. Since Brexit, Amsterdam has replaced London as the biggest hub of European share trading. Mr. Bailey and the Conservatives seem to think that London is like New York, forgetting that NY is also importing capital from 49 other states. Less than 10% of London's capital is indigenous UK Capital, with the majority coming from Europe, North America and Asia. The importance of London to the EU was vastly overstated.

The UK are the masters of 'whip out your pen*s' school of diplomacy - a faux play of machismo in the hope that your opponent will be in awe at the size of your manhood and table thumping antics. Unfortunately, they are exactly as deluded as they seem.

NeuralNetwork

They also forget that it would be grossly unfair on financial centres like New York for the UK to be granted some preferential access to the EU's financial markets.

Why exactly would the UK, a 3rd country without any significant trade or services agreements, be granted preferential access? Just because of geography and physical proximity?

That doesn't make sense.

I agree, they do tend to forget that they became a serious EU financial hub and that somewhere like NYC is a serious US financial hub in a market of 50 states and 328 million people.

London is now a self-isolated (by its own choice and nobody else's persuasion or power), 'off shore' financial centre and will have to just adjust to that reality. They're free to negotiate agreements on financial services with the EU or anyone else, but those will all come with agreed rules. That's just the way the world works.

It's also not in the EU's interest to have its primary financial centre outside the EU. The logical preference in the EU would be for a network of interlinked financial centres, preferably within the Eurozone and absolutely within the EU and the single market.

This is hugely preferable to having large scale financial transactions taking place outside our own regulatory framework.

Also we need to stop talking about the EU as "them". We are in the EU here in Ireland. This is our financial market.

The Brexiteers need to take their own advice now and move on. Brexit has been delivered.

RobMc59

Enzokk wrote: »

It's all they have in the UK at the moment. They have article 16 and Covid vaccinations so Rob will milk that as long as he can. Because this shows that UK GOOD and EU is BAD! If he looks too much at Brexit and its implications he cannot keep ignoring it even if his life has not been disrupted that much, yet.

If you read my original post you'll see I commented about a family member living in the EU asking about vaccine rollout there.Thats the real world, not petty point scoring.

Leroy42

RobMc59 wrote: »

If you read my original post you'll see I commented about a family member living in the EU asking about vaccine rollout there.Thats the real world, not petty point scoring.

The point is that it has nothing to do with Brexit. The Uk is not doing great on vaccines because of Brexit. It is doing well because of a number of decisions that it took, some of which were educated gambles.

But regardless of how they arrived at the decisions, Brexit had little bearing, apart from maybe the UK were forced to go it alone to try to prove others wrong.

But in all cases, they could have ended up in the exact same place with regards to vaccines they are now if Brexit had never happened.

You seem very determined to steer clear of anything actually related to Brexit itself. Like the massive shift in funds, the news about Amsterdam shares dealing, the estimated £1bn extra costs to the chemical industry just to replicate the REACH protocols. THe disaster for the fishing industry, the lack of preparation by the government across all sectors of the economy. The omnishables of NI and that the UK have so far offered not one idea, save for demanding the EU'do something' to alleviate the issues their own citizens are facing because of decisions they took.

Capt'n Midnight

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

They also forget that it would be grossly unfair on financial centres like New York for the UK to be granted some preferential access to the EU's financial markets.

Actually the US has just got that status.

It will allow such US CCPs to apply for recognition by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA). Once recognised by ESMA, these US CCPs will be able to provide central clearing services in the EU.

London is now a self-isolated (by its own choice and nobody else's persuasion or power), 'off shore' financial centre and will have to just adjust to that reality. They're free to negotiate agreements on financial services with the EU or anyone else, but those will all come with agreed rules. That's just the way the world work.

UK access is now lower than US access. UK access could be lost at any time if the EU decide that, for example, the UK's data protection laws fall short, or the UK doesn't clamp down on tax evasion facilitated by it's protectorates or some EU country gets their knickers in a twist and starts pulling strings.


I'm unclear as to what the UK can bring to the table to get equilivance while there are so many other teething issues around the trade deal.

NeuralNetwork

They're not really bringing anything to the table in terms of an offer either other than "we are angry! how dare you!!"
What exactly are they offering? (Other than not to write nasty headlines in tabloids, which nobody in the EU really reads anyway.)

I'm still not really seeing this as a negotiation effort and more of a self-righteous and rather entitled temper tantrum
If they want to negotiate, bring something worth negotiating. Otherwise, this is all a bit of a waste of time.

fash

RobMc59 wrote: »

Something I heard today Sam,my sister who lives in Spain(has done for 25 years)hasn't visited England since 2019.She phoned her doctor asking when vaccines will be rolled out.The doctor told her we don't know when we'll get any vaccines let alone start rolling them out.
The only issue here with vaccines in the UK is whether you do or don't want it.

Vaccines they stole from the EU - resulting in yet more deaths at the hands of the British.

RobMc59

Leroy42 wrote: »

The point is that it has nothing to do with Brexit. The Uk is not doing great on vaccines because of Brexit. It is doing well because of a number of decisions that it took, some of which were educated gambles.

But regardless of how they arrived at the decisions, Brexit had little bearing, apart from maybe the UK were forced to go it alone to try to prove others wrong.

But in all cases, they could have ended up in the exact same place with regards to vaccines they are now if Brexit had never happened.

You seem very determined to steer clear of anything actually related to Brexit itself. Like the massive shift in funds, the news about Amsterdam shares dealing, the estimated £1bn extra costs to the chemical industry just to replicate the REACH protocols. THe disaster for the fishing industry, the lack of preparation by the government across all sectors of the economy. The omnishables of NI and that the UK have so far offered not one idea, save for demanding the EU'do something' to alleviate the issues their own citizens are facing because of decisions they took.

Talking about the shift in funds..Whilst financial services(or any services for that matter)are based in London that probably gives Irish citizens an opportunity for employment in those sectors.This would remain constant because of the CTA.That advantage is lost to Irish citizens now.
If two people apply for a job in Amsterdam with the same qualifications,one is Dutch(obviously fluent in Dutch)and the other only speaks English who is likely to get the job?

Akesh

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Actually the US has just got that status.


UK access is now lower than US access. UK access could be lost at any time if the EU decide that, for example, the UK's data protection laws fall short, or the UK doesn't clamp down on tax evasion facilitated by it's protectorates or some EU country gets their knickers in a twist and starts pulling strings.


I'm unclear as to what the UK can bring to the table to get equilivance while there are so many other teething issues around the trade deal.

Technically they (UK) still have the same access with regards to CCPs as the EU granted an extension until mid 2022 to wind down reliance on London's clearing houses. There is still an estimated £43 Trillion of derivative contracts outstanding in early January between London and EU.

It makes sense for the EU to strike a deal while London drags its heels and the EU can insist on important risk management requirements as opposed to London who want to have unconditional access with no rules.

Nody

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

They're not really bringing anything to the table in terms of an offer either other than "we are angry! how dare you!!"
What exactly are they offering? (Other than not to write nasty headlines in tabloids, which nobody in the EU really reads anyway.)

I'm still not really seeing this as a negotiation effort and more of a self-righteous and rather entitled temper tantrum
If they want to negotiate, bring something worth negotiating. Otherwise, this is all a bit of a waste of time.

It's all about playing to the local gallery and keep blaming EU; they have zero interest in actually doing something about it in reality. That or they are honestly that stupid that they though it would be a wink and a nod and everything going on as usual even when told up front that would not be the case for five years; simply take your pick.

listermint

RobMc59 wrote: »

Talking about the shift in funds..Whilst financial services(or any services for that matter)are based in London that probably gives Irish citizens an opportunity for employment in those sectors.This would remain constant because of the CTA.That advantage is lost to Irish citizens now.
If two people apply for a job in Amsterdam with the same qualifications,one is Dutch(obviously fluent in Dutch)and the other only speaks English who is likely to get the job?

Bizarre Segway. But business and make definitely financial side is performed in English language. And the Netherlands have a solid educational system in regards English. It's ridiculously strong there.


I'm unsure why you are bringing a figmented Irish person into this equation. That same figment Irish person has an EU passport where their British colleague does not.

Who do you think can relocate and get that job...

Zubeneschamali

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

I'm still not really seeing this as a negotiation effort and more of a self-righteous and rather entitled temper tantrum

That's because they are not really negotiating with the EU.

Since the referendum, the real negotiations have been between the factions within the Tory Party.

Gove's letter, for example, would have been sent to the EU quietly if the idea was to get things from the EU. Instead it was published in the UK papers, because the point is to make Gove look tough to the members of the Tory party who will choose Boris's replacement.

NeuralNetwork

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

That's because they are not really negotiating with the EU.

Since the referendum, the real negotiations have been between the factions within the Tory Party.

Gove's letter, for example, would have been sent to the EU quietly if the idea was to get things from the EU. Instead it was published in the UK papers, because the point is to make Gove look tough to the members of the Tory party who will choose Boris's replacement.

Which is all fine and well until the economy slams into a brick wall in a few months. Then what?

Leroy42

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

Which is all fine and well until the economy slams into a brick wall in a few months. Then what?

The plan is that covid will be retreating, and pent up demand and spend will cover the worst issues from Brexit.

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

The plan is that covid will be retreating, and pent up demand and spend will cover the worst issues from Brexit.

Surely that is when the worst issues from Brexit will manifest themselves. Increased demand for imports and exports will show up deficiencies in the logistics handling essential trade.

Imports are being waved through until April 1st.

Leroy42

Sam Russell wrote: »

Surely that is when the worst issues from Brexit will manifest themselves. Increased demand for imports and exports will show up deficiencies in the logistics handling essential trade.

Imports are being waved through until April 1st.

Yeah, but they can blame sour grapes from the EU because they didn't get the vaccine.

peter kern

A month into the new relationship, the European commission said the UK’s exit on the terms agreed by Boris Johnson’s government would generate a loss in gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of 2022 of about 2.25% in the UK compared with continued membership. In contrast, the hit for the EU is estimated to be about 0.5% over the same period.



The commission said the “trade shock” from these so-called non-tariff barriers amounted to the equivalent of a tax on imports worth 10.9% for the EU and 8.5% for the UK. It said there was a bigger impact on growth for countries with a higher share of goods trade with the EU – such as Ireland – and that the lack of a deal on services – which form 80% of the UK economy – would hurt the UK, as well as EU nations where doing service-sector business with Britain was more important.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/11/brexit-to-cost-four-times-worse-for-uk-than-eu-brussels-forecasts

Zubeneschamali

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

Which is all fine and well until the economy slams into a brick wall in a few months. Then what?

Then Boris gets the boot and Gove gets the top job.

That really is all they care about.

breatheme

RobMc59 wrote: »

Something I heard today Sam,my sister who lives in Spain(has done for 25 years)hasn't visited England since 2019.She phoned her doctor asking when vaccines will be rolled out.The doctor told her we don't know when we'll get any vaccines let alone start rolling them out.
The only issue here with vaccines in the UK is whether you do or don't want it.

We are playing entirely different games, though. Spain has around 900 thousand people completely vaccinated, almost double the UK's.


Sure, the UK may have more people "vaccinated" but I'd put money that in the long run it'll work to their detriment.

Peregrinus

RobMc59 wrote: »

Talking about the shift in funds..Whilst financial services(or any services for that matter)are based in London that probably gives Irish citizens an opportunity for employment in those sectors.This would remain constant because of the CTA.That advantage is lost to Irish citizens now.
If two people apply for a job in Amsterdam with the same qualifications,one is Dutch(obviously fluent in Dutch)and the other only speaks English who is likely to get the job?

So Brexit is bad for the UK, but that's OK so long as it is also bad for Ireland?

I'd drop this line of argument if I were you, Rob.

schmoo2k

RobMc59 wrote: »

Talking about the shift in funds..Whilst financial services(or any services for that matter)are based in London that probably gives Irish citizens an opportunity for employment in those sectors.This would remain constant because of the CTA.That advantage is lost to Irish citizens now.
If two people apply for a job in Amsterdam with the same qualifications,one is Dutch(obviously fluent in Dutch)and the other only speaks English who is likely to get the job?

GB Leaving the EU is bad for the EU and Ireland is disproportionally affected.

Brexit is and was always going to be a lose / lose scenario.

But to you point - an Irish person can still work in the financial sector in London, nothing has actually changed there, what does look like changing is the amount of available jobs in London and GB (which will obviously affect GB citizens disproportionally).

ambro25

RobMc59 wrote: »

Perhaps someone should tell the Taoiseach about all this as he seems unaware...
I've attached a link in which he believes all parties need to dial down the rhetoric. His opinion regarding a vote on a UI doesn't make good reading for any republicans either..

"Brexit: Micheál Martin calls on 'big beasts' of EU to 'cool it' - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-56026320

I really don't think anyone on the pro-Brexit side of this debate, is in any position to throw stones at what the Taoiseach knows -or not- about freight and customs clearing operations.

Point of further order: whattaboutery efforts based on UI politics are wasted on me. I'm neither Irish, nor residing on the island, so uninvested in it (note: uninvested does not mean uninterested).

I get well, that you need a lift in the sea of bad economic news flowing out of Brexit since 1st Jan. Commiserations, and best of luck.

But objectively, your efforts would best be directed, at informing Brits far and wide, that this wink-and-nod approach to business life with the EU (and RoW through away deals whilst a member) ended for good 6 weeks ago, and that the sooner they reacquaint themselves with conducting international trade à la late 80s-early 90s (pre-SM cross-customs shipping, in or out), the lesser the impact on their business and UK GDP overall.

Because their government isn't, nor likely to anytime soon, and the signaling from the EU27 after that Sercovic letter, is that they are well and truly over Brexit and moving on fast. Nobody is coming to the rescue.

CelticRambler

EU wants more time to read/ratify the TCA; Frost doesn't see the need

The provisional application of the TCA is due to expire in two weeks, and not all MEPs have had the chance to study it properly. Proposed solution: give themselves an extra two months. British response: just sign it already! Who reads this stuff anyway? :rolleyes:

Meanwhile, regarding NI, no news is ... no news, presumably because Gove was reminded verbally of what Šefčovič put in writing the day before. In a different room, Michel Barnier tells it like it is:

“... The difficulties on the island of Ireland are caused by Brexit, not by the protocol,” Michel Barnier told a European Business Summit event on Thursday.

“The protocol is the solution.”

Just under half of British companies that export goods have run into problems caused by the shift in trade terms with the EU since the start of the year, a survey showed on Thursday.

Barnier said it was clear there would be a period of adaptation, but long term it would not be business as usual. “Brexit means Brexit,” he said, repeating a mantra coined by former British Prime Minister Theresa May.

rock22

RobMc59 wrote: »

Talking about the shift in funds..Whilst financial services(or any services for that matter)are based in London that probably gives Irish citizens an opportunity for employment in those sectors.This would remain constant because of the CTA.That advantage is lost to Irish citizens now.
If two people apply for a job in Amsterdam with the same qualifications,one is Dutch(obviously fluent in Dutch)and the other only speaks English who is likely to get the job?

Rob, i see you are resorting to typical imperialist views of Irish people. Coming , with cap in hand ,to their English master's for a job.

Michael D Higgins, has a good article in the Guardian pointing out how these Imperialist attitudes have never been challenged or reflected on by English , ( and although he doesn't say, I think those views helped bring about Brexit).

Rob, Perhaps you would read and reflect on it

McGiver

CelticRambler wrote:

Meanwhile, regarding NI, no news is ... no news, presumably because Gove was reminded verbally of what Šefčovič put in writing the day before. In a different room,

Šefčovič 40 - Gove 0. Game Šefčovič.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1359993374292459524?s=19

UK told basically get the f*ck off your bloody arse and implement what you agreed to in the international treaty.

Gove will now go home, start agitating in the Tory propaganda rags, then send another letter with an ultimatum to the EU. Rinse and repeat.

The UK simply won't implement the protocol and keep sabotaging it, will allow goods unchecked into the SM via NI. And the DUP will keep sabotaging the protocol too saying "No No No", they've no other choice.

This will carry on for years.

rock22

RobMc59 wrote: »

Something I heard today Sam,my sister who lives in Spain(has done for 25 years)hasn't visited England since 2019.She phoned her doctor asking when vaccines will be rolled out.The doctor told her we don't know when we'll get any vaccines let alone start rolling them out.
The only issue here with vaccines in the UK is whether you do or don't want it.

UK has only 0.8% fully vaccinated. Ireland has 1.8%. UK is at the bottom of the list in Europe for the number of people properly vacinated.
link

Rob, there is no harm having the correct facts before you post.

beggars_bush

McGiver wrote: »

Šefčovič 40 - Gove 0. Game Šefčovič.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1359993374292459524?s=19

UK told basically get the f*ck off your bloody arse and implement what you agreed to in the international treaty.

Gove will now go home, start agitating in the Tory propaganda rags, then send another letter with an ultimatum to the EU. Rinse and repeat.

The UK simply won't implement the protocol and keep sabotaging it, will allow goods unchecked into the SM via NI. And the DUP will keep sabotaging the protocol too saying "No No No", they've no other choice.

This will carry on for years.

Basically trying to get the EU to put up border checks on the island

The Raging Bile Duct

Amsterdam has overtaken London as Europe’s largest share trading centre, and experts say the symbolic blow could be followed by the City losing jobs as well as more business owing to Brexit.

The Dutch capital, which was previously the sixth largest exchange centre in Europe, saw average daily trading surge from €2.6bn (£2.3bn) to €9.2bn in January as exchanges shifted order books abroad after Brexit.

It pushed London into second place, with average daily trading halving from €17.5bn to €8.6bn last month, according to data released by the CBOE exchange.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/feb/11/amsterdam-overtakes-london-as-europes-top-share-trading-centre?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1613075296

Bloody hell...

Sam Russell

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

EU- “it be a pity if anything where to happen to that financial sector of yours”

Uk needs to be put back in box fast, that’s only language Tories understand

The border in the Irish sea is mirrored by the border in La Manche/English Channel. Any backsliding on one could cause a similar reaction in the other.

Zubeneschamali

Amsterdam up 6.5 bn but London down 9, basically halved in the first month. It's a collapse, and they can't blame COVID this time.