Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

rock22 wrote: »

UK has only 0.8% fully vaccinated. Ireland has 1.8%. UK is at the bottom of the list in Europe for the number of people properly vacinated.

Seeing as ye're all determined to keep bringing coronavirus vaccination willy-waving into this Brexit thread, France has today exercised its sovereignty in respect of the AZ vaccine, in the face of reports of a number of (temporarily) incapacitating side-effects attributed to the use of certain batches of this vaccine, in particular amongst younger people, even more particularly those working in the health service.

For obvious reasons, healthcare workers were vaccinated as a priority; for less-than-obvious reasons, vaccinating them triggered such a level of side-effects that the resulting sick-leave had an significant negative effect on staffing levels in some hospitals. Effective immediately, the new recommendation is to not vaccinate all your staff at the same time, regardless of whether or not the vaccine is available.

These findings have not (yet) been observed/reported in other countries, so there are other factors at play - which highlights the pointlessness of comparing vaccination rates/strategies across hugely different geographical and socio-economic areas. Disease control measures should certainly be coordinated, but not necessarily imposed in a blanket, uniform manner.

(And a little PS: a cluster of at least 300 cases of the AZ-resistant Brazilian variant has been found in one département [Moselle]; if/when that reaches Britain, any first-mover advantage will be lost)

View

Sam Russell wrote: »

The border in the Irish sea is mirrored by the border in La Manche/English Channel. Any backsliding on one could cause a similar reaction in the other.

I’m fairly sure that isn’t true.

If the U.K. starts playing games on the Channel
crossings, then we/the EU has no way of implementing any form of “similar reaction” on the Irish Sea crossings in NI.

The only way to implement any form of “similar reaction” would be to do so on the land border here.

timetogo1

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Amsterdam up 6.5 bn but London down 9, basically halved in the first month. It's a collapse, and they can't blame COVID this time.

They'll try though. And plenty will believe them.

Padre_Pio

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/feb/11/amsterdam-overtakes-london-as-europes-top-share-trading-centre?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1613075296

Bloody hell...

Read the article, it's not that big a deal.
Trading was forced to move due to no equivalence.
But maybe an indication of things to come.

breezy1985

RobMc59 wrote: »

Something I heard today Sam,my sister who lives in Spain(has done for 25 years)hasn't visited England since 2019.She phoned her doctor asking when vaccines will be rolled out.The doctor told her we don't know when we'll get any vaccines let alone start rolling them out.
The only issue here with vaccines in the UK is whether you do or don't want it.

Are you suggesting anyone can get a vaccine in the UK right now?

This is certainly not true of any of my friends over there

Hurrache

Well if they're trying to push the Amsterdam as not too big a deal, this certainly is
https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1360167560000462849

schmoo2k

Hurrache wrote: »

Well if they're trying to push the Amsterdam as not too big a deal, this certainly is
https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1360167560000462849

Thats pre-brexit though?

Seth Brundle

Brexit strictly speaking happened a year ago - the transition period just ended on Dec 31st which made it really real.
Some of the losses would be down to covid whilst some would be down to pre-Dec 31 2020 economic departures

Sam Russell

View wrote: »

Sam Russell wrote: »

The border in the Irish sea is mirrored by the border in La Manche/English Channel. Any backsliding on one could cause a similar reaction in the other.

I’m fairly sure that isn’t true.

If the U.K. starts playing games on the Channel
crossings, then we/the EU has no way of implementing any form of “similar reaction” on the Irish Sea crossings in NI.

The only way to implement any form of “similar reaction” would be to do so on the land border here.

I was thinking the other way round. Any games on the sea border in Belfast/Larne will cause a few 'problems' on the French side. The French can be quite creative.

Alun

I get my wild bird food from birdfood.ie, part of a large European company called Vivara. Previously they fulfilled all orders from their UK operation, but I got an email from them today to say that from now on all Irish orders will be fulfilled from the Netherlands. Not only that, there's now a slightly larger assortment and also slightly cheaper too.

Hurrache

schmoo2k wrote: »

Thats pre-brexit though?

As Seth Brundle said, Brexit benefits didn't begin this year, they've been snowballing since the vote.

Padre_Pio

Hurrache wrote: »

Brexit benefits didn't begin this year.

They won't begin next year or the year after that either :pac::pac:

Zubeneschamali

View wrote: »

If the U.K. starts playing games on the Channel
crossings, then we/the EU has no way of implementing any form of “similar reaction” on the Irish Sea crossings in NI.

Most NI-GB trade goes through Dublin, where Customs are good and ready to react.

RobMc59

View wrote: »

I’m fairly sure that isn’t true.

If the U.K. starts playing games on the Channel
crossings, then we/the EU has no way of implementing any form of “similar reaction” on the Irish Sea crossings in NI.

The only way to implement any form of “similar reaction” would be to do so on the land border here.

What do you mean by 'playing games'?

peter kern

Hurrache wrote: »

Well if they're trying to push the Amsterdam as not too big a deal, this certainly is
https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1360167560000462849

The question is how much of this is brexit related and how much by poor response to covid.
And then the last question is how much will they get back with faster vaccine roll out .
Ie the eu commission thinks uk will recover faster from covid than spain and italy.

listermint

peter kern wrote: »

The question is how much of this is brexit related and how much by poor response to covid.
And then the last question is how much will they get back with faster vaccine roll out .
Ie the eu commission thinks uk will recover faster from covid than spain and italy.

Poor response to covid....

They've been ignoring covid from the get go with their businesses being open longer and less lockdowns than elsewhere.
That would imply economic activity should have been more frequent due to that.


It's brexit. It's the flight of the earl's for business and capital.

Seth Brundle

peter kern wrote: »

The question is how much of this is brexit related and how much by poor response to covid.

It would be impossible to know. However, I would expect Westminster to guess that it is all due to covid.

schmoo2k

Its in the UKs interest to have a really bad 2020 - but a "better" 2021...

Leroy42

Seth Brundle wrote: »

It would be impossible to know. However, I would expect Westminster to guess that it is all due to covid.

If the business had been lost from London, and not moved to Amsterdam, then one might be able to argue that it was, at least in part, Covid related.

But the level of business is the same, it has just shifted location.

I said at the time it was initially reported that UK government and Brexiteers would seek to minimise the impact, saying it was relatively small numbers, have little real impact on jobs and or taxes.

But what it signals is that things are shifting away from London. Even if this is the total extent of it (its not) then it is yet another negative and there has still been no positives at all.

Professor Moriarty

schmoo2k wrote: »

Its in the UKs interest to have a really bad 2020 - but a "better" 2021...

Well, maybe it's in the Tories' interest.

Akesh

peter kern wrote: »

The question is how much of this is brexit related and how much by poor response to covid.
And then the last question is how much will they get back with faster vaccine roll out .
Ie the eu commission thinks uk will recover faster from covid than spain and italy.

The EU's forecasts are based on having 70% of the adult population of Europe vaccinated by the Summer, which isn't going to happen.

The UK still have a much better economy than Spain and Italy despite Brexit so it's no surprise.

Seth Brundle

Leroy42 wrote: »

...then it is yet another negative and there has still been no positives at all.

There can't be positives from it, despite what many Brexit supporters claim. That's why JRM reckons that the benefits will take 50 years to realise.
You simply can't leave a successful trading bloc whilst doing your absolute best to piss off all remaining members for some fantasy of trade with poorer countries on the other side of the planet. It is completely delusional.
To think that you would have more bargaining power as a nation of 67 million than as a bloc of 450million just shows the level of delusion you are dealing with. In all of the deals that the UK has struck since their departure, not once has the UK been in a better position that they already had whilst part of the EU.

Akesh

I see the UK have announced a £2,000 grant for businesses that trade with the EU which is a kin to putting a plaster over a massive gash.

tubercolossus

RobMc59 wrote: »

I was commenting on your post in which you mentioned the EU's unified approach to vaccine procurement being a success.

And you do see that vaccine procurement is a different thing to vaccine roll-out, don't you? One being EU, the other a national, competency....

murphaph

Let's say the UK continues to fail to implement the protocol and goods continue to enter the single market (NI) without the proper procedures taking place.

What sanctions do we think are likely to be imposed by the EU, if any? Might the deal itself simply be rejected by the parliament, being presented with this bad faith partner on the other side?

RobMc59

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Italy and Spain I believe are about to get billions to kick start their economy in a marshal plan style EU recovery plan.

In UK Tories will revert to their natural NHS cutting path, hey whatever happened to that promised 350 million a week to NHS @Rob?

I understand Italy pay more into the EU than they get out although in the current situation are struggling and need help.So who is going to be paying those billions to kick start the Italian and Spanish economies?A quick look at the countries paying in more than they get out includes Ireland i believe, so you are going to be paying for that recovery fund.You have to ask yourself,have Spain and Italy been sensible in their financial planning for a 'rainy day?'

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

I understand Italy pay more into the EU than they get out although in the current situation are struggling and need help.So who is going to be paying those billions to kick start the Italian and Spanish economies?A quick look at the countries paying in more than they get out includes Ireland i believe, so you are going to be paying for that recovery fund.You have to ask yourself,have Spain and Italy been sensible in their financial planning for a 'rainy day?'

Why the sudden concern about the fiscal probity of Spain & Italy when HM government is currently engaged in a needless war on the British economy and a gas-lighting campaign of their citizens?

If you're British, I think that this is a question much more deserving of your time and mental resources.

CelticRambler

Akesh wrote: »

I see the UK have announced a £2,000 grant for businesses that trade with the EU which is a kin to putting a plaster over a massive gash.

Indeed. From the government's press release:

grants of up to £2,000 for each trader to pay for practical support including training and professional advice to ensure they can continue trading effectively with the EU.

£2000's worth of training and professional advice isn't going to solve the teething problems chronic gum disease that these businesses are going to suffer from. :rolleyes:

Further down the page:

Having taken back control of our borders, we made the pragmatic decision to introduce new import controls in three stages up to 1 July 2021 to allow traders and hauliers time to adjust to new processes.

Pragmatic, eh? I think "pragmatic" might have been more along the lines of giving British businesses more than a working week over Christmas to get to grips with export controls.

Hurrache

I think at this point Rob is only trying to convince himself about Brexit.

Professor Moriarty

RobMc59 wrote: »

I understand Italy pay more into the EU than they get out although in the current situation are struggling and need help.So who is going to be paying those billions to kick start the Italian and Spanish economies?A quick look at the countries paying in more than they get out includes Ireland i believe, so you are going to be paying for that recovery fund.You have to ask yourself,have Spain and Italy been sensible in their financial planning for a 'rainy day?'

Fair play, Rob. Despite being utterly outnumbered, you continue to provide an alternative view of Brexit from a UK perspective. Well done.