Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I think the DUP are trying to manufacture a sort of 'Sophie's choice' for Westminster, hard GB-NI alignment or a FTA with the EU.

The problem for the DUP is that, as far as England is concerned, NI is not so much a cherished child as an embarrassing cousin.

Yeah, the UK have already made their choice, and apparently NI is a price worth paying.

They still seem to be operating under the impression that somehow all of this is the EU fault and Johnson is focused on keeping NI close.

They haven't accepted that Johnson threw them under the bus to get what he wanted

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I see what you're getting at but I still disagree with this assessment. Covid is the big unknown here IMO. We don't know what Europe will look like in 3-4 years time. If the pandemic has mostly or entirely subsided then I think there's going to be a lot more internal rancour here over Brexit.

I don't think Perestroika is a suitable comparison at all. Brexit is going to entrench privilege in British society, not prompt a reformation of how things work here. There's no indication of any positives. Rees-Mogg claimed six decades and even if he's right, that's a lot of needless suffering in the meantime.

The optimistic scientists like Prof Luke O'Neill think the virus could be well under control in the UK and Ireland within 12 months. Certainly we would be heading towards 'herd immunity' by that point.

johnnyskeleton

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Brexit is going to entrench privilege in British society, not prompt a reformation of how things work here. There's no indication of any positives. Rees-Mogg claimed six decades and even if he's right, that's a lot of needless suffering in the meantime.

JRM is possibly saying 50 years because he figures that there will be sufficient change in government over that time period that they can disclaim responsibility. However, if Scotland leaves the UK, then the Tories will be in charge for the next 50 years so they will have no excuses then and will have to own it.

yagan

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I see what you're getting at but I still disagree with this assessment. Covid is the big unknown here IMO. We don't know what Europe will look like in 3-4 years time. If the pandemic has mostly or entirely subsided then I think there's going to be a lot more internal rancour here over Brexit.

I don't think Perestroika is a suitable comparison at all. Brexit is going to entrench privilege in British society, not prompt a reformation of how things work here. There's no indication of any positives. Rees-Mogg claimed six decades and even if he's right, that's a lot of needless suffering in the meantime.

Alternatively Brexit will starve the ruling classes of their external excuse for all their failings. Again they'll try to use racism and religion for divide and conquer domestically as they did when they ruled an empire, but having taken back control I'd imagine the average Ken and Mavis will be wondering why aren't they unicorns and vicars riding bicycles past cricket matches on the greens like they were promised.

BTW, Ken and Mavis still think they can retire to Spain on their state pensions, a fund that may well end being raided yet, and then that's when the real fun starts.

Brexit was always more about domestic UK politics than the EU itself.

ArmaniJeanss

In mild defence of JRM, his 50 years thing is generally misquoted. He didn't say it would take 50 years to see the benefits, just that there would be continuous benefits over the 50 year time span.

The exact quote in the 2018 interview is "The overwhelming opportunity for Brexit is over the next 50 years."

There's nothing there to suggest he means that the benefits will take 50 years - it's far more plausible that he was claiming there will be immediate benefits that will continue for 50 years. Clearly, its obviously nonsense, but the way it's misquoted is annoying as often an extra word like 'up to' or 'over' is put in to change the meaning.

yagan

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

In mild defence of JRM, his 50 years thing is generally misquoted. He didn't say it would take 50 years to see the benefits, just that there would be continuous benefits over the 50 year time span.

The exact quote in the 2018 interview is "The overwhelming opportunity for Brexit is over the next 50 years."

There's nothing there to suggest he means that the benefits will take 50 years - it's far more plausible that he was claiming there will be immediate benefits that will continue for 50 years. Clearly, its obviously nonsense, but the way it's misquoted is annoying as often an extra word like 'up to' or 'over' is put in to change the meaning.

There could be one positive for every ten brexit negatives for every year for decades and accrued they could be lauded as a success, if the negatives are ignored.

If england wants insularity then it's going about it the right way.

Peregrinus

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Dianne Dodds former DUP MEP, current Stormont MLA rejects GB alignment with the EU on SPS regulations that would ease the Irish Sea border because she doesn't want the UK slavishly following 'EU Rules' . . .

Doug Beatie has described the above as 'utter madness', it'll be interesting to see how Unionism divides on this issue.

Doug has a point, I think. Essentially, the DUP are

(a) objecting to the effects of the NI Protocol; but

(b) refusing to countenance attainable measures for alleviating the effects of the protocol.

The bottom line here is that you can't rule out checks in the Irish Sea, and also rule out all the options for avoiding checks in the Irish Sea. You just can't.

One way to make sense of this is to think that the DUP's twin fetishes - Hard Brexit and the Union - have come into conflict and, forced to choose, they have chosen Hard Brexit over the Union. If that is what is happening, it signals a dramatic shift in NI politics, so long dominated by a unionism whose central preoccupation is, well, the Union.

The other way to make sense of this is to think that the DUP expects that the UK government will do what it has to do to alleviate the impact of the NI protocol and, secretly, they'll be relieved when it does. But they don't want to be seen to support or advocate it, because that would piss off the certified loon wing of the Tory party, the only political tendency in Britain that even pretends to take the the DUP seriously.

On this view, the DUP is relying on Johnson to do what they want to be done but are too gutless to call for themselves. And that's a high-risk strategy; you never want to be relying on Johnson for anything.

Enzokk

Peregrinus wrote: »

Doug has a point, I think. Essentially, the DUP are

(a) objecting to the effects of the NI Protocol; but

(b) refusing to countenance attainable measures for alleviating the effects of the protocol.

The bottom line here is that you can't rule out checks in the Irish Sea, and also rule out all the options for avoiding checks in the Irish Sea. You just can't.

One way to make sense of this is to think that the DUP's twin fetishes - Hard Brexit and the Union - have come into conflict and, forced to choose, they have chosen Hard Brexit over the Union. If that is what is happening, it signals a dramatic shift in NI politics, so long dominated by a unionism whose central preoccupation is, well, the Union.

The other way to make sense of this is to think that the DUP expects that the UK government will do what it has to do to alleviate the impact of the NI protocol and, secretly, they'll be relieved when it does. But they don't want to be seen to support or advocate it, because that would piss off the certified loon wing of the Tory party, the only political tendency in Britain that even pretends to take the the DUP seriously.

On this view, the DUP is relying on Johnson to do what they want to be done but are too gutless to call for themselves. And that's a high-risk strategy; you never want to be relying on Johnson for anything.

Or they still think the solution to all their problems is a all UK Brexit with a hard border on this island. They didn't sign up to the GFA and only used its name for their own benefit. They would happily see a return of a hard border and I suspect violence if it means NI stays part of the UK and they stay in control in NI.

The problem is that their fantasy in not ground in any sort of reality and cannot happen and will not be allowed to happen by us, the EU, the USA or the majority of UK MP's.

The second tweet of Sam McBride is interesting,

https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1361724463495151621?s=20

This stance from the DUP is prompted by the following,

https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1361613257128173568?s=20

So expect more rumblings from NI if no solution is found in the next few days. The DUP really will be consigning itself to the rubbish bin if a solution isn't found and more business struggles even more.

Peregrinus

Enzokk wrote: »

Or they still think the solution to all their problems is a all UK Brexit with a hard border on this island. They didn't sign up to the GFA and only used its name for their own benefit. They would happily see a return of a hard border and I suspect violence if it means NI stays part of the UK and they stay in control in NI.

The problem is that their fantasy in not ground in any sort of reality and cannot happen and will not be allowed to happen by us, the EU, the USA or the majority of UK MP's.

I agree. This isn't an attainable solution.

It would have been attainable - at huge cost - some time ago; the UK could simply have allowed a crash-out Brexit to happen and a hard border would have ensued. But the cost was more than the UK was willing to pay, so it didn't happen.

And the cost of this now would be much, much greater because, rather than brexiting without a withdrawal agreement, the UK would now have to violate the withdrawal agreement that it has already made, and by which it is bound. The consequences of that are severe.

So the UK will be even less willing to pay the cost of all-UK hard Brexit now than they were back then, and they are certainly not going to pay that cost just to keep the DUP happy. The DUP are deluding themselves if they think that particular outcome is something they can still hope to achieve.

rock22

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I see what you're getting at but I still disagree with this assessment. Covid is the big unknown here IMO. We don't know what Europe will look like in 3-4 years time. If the pandemic has mostly or entirely subsided then I think there's going to be a lot more internal rancour here over Brexit.

I don't think Perestroika is a suitable comparison at all. Brexit is going to entrench privilege in British society, not prompt a reformation of how things work here. There's no indication of any positives. Rees-Mogg claimed six decades and even if he's right, that's a lot of needless suffering in the meantime.

Brexit was always about internal UK tensions, and more specifically , tensions within the Tory party.

So it is not going to be solved by better or closer relationships with the EU. Some in the EU will lose interest in Brexit and the UK over time. Others, more affected like France, Ireland,etc. will adopt and hopefully take advantage of Brexit. None of this will have any impact on UK politics. The problems of Brexit can only be sorted out in UK.

Interestingly, BBC or Channel 4 carried interview with two actors telling UK and EU to sort out their visa difficulties. Even with the most benign interpretation , they still see they are British and these damn rules shouldn't apply to them. And they argue this without any sense of Irony.

What we need to do is change supply chains as soon as possible to our benefit. And that might need EU directives and government action, which could be as simple as financial incentives to business.

In the meantime, the UK is off to lead the Asian - Pacific nations .

listermint

Just heard from a recruiter of another large British house hold name moving entire procurement operations to Dublin. I keep seeing and hearing these bits and pieces they never make a news article because it's 100-200 jobs here and there.

Collectively leaking jobs which need the EU access and EU trade deals do do business.

CelticRambler

rock22 wrote: »

Brexit was always about internal UK tensions, and more specifically , tensions within the Tory party.

So it is not going to be solved by better or closer relationships with the EU.

Spot on. This is why there'll be no reapplication to join the EU from England. An independent Scotlant won't be saddled with this family feud; and if we ever get to that point, and independent Wales won't have it either. If we go way down the fragmentation road, even a staunchly English region like Devon&Cornwall would have to first get over it's Tory addiction before it could opt to boost its economy through closer ties to the EU - but it's theoretically conceivable that the Lib Dems there could vanquish the Tories with the help of an new D&C independence party (a similar change to what's happened in Scotland).

But back in Middle England, without scapping FPTP, it'll still be the classic Tory versus Labour contest, and there's no reason to think that there'll be enough votes in play for a campaign to be run on a (sincere) promise to be closer to Europe.

rock22 wrote: »

Interestingly, BBC or Channel 4 carried interview with two actors telling UK and EU to sort out their visa difficulties. Even with the most benign interpretation , they still see they are British and these damn rules shouldn't apply to them.

On this point, I think you're being a bit too severe. Yes, we're hearing these calls for the UK and the EU to sort things out; but rather than it being a case of British exceptionalism, I think it's more a question of disenfranchisement.

Leavers or Remainers, all of these people were told for years that everything would stay the same, that there'd be no disadvantages. Thanks to the transitional measures, that false claim appeared to be true and they tuned out the Brexit noise, even if - in the back of their minds - they were aware of some kind of discussions continuing.

Now that the full-on Brexit has happened and they're feeling the effects, it's understandable that they think there's still room for negotiation and solutions to be found. It's going to take quite a while for them to realise that this is the deal that Johnson signed, sealed and delivered for them, on the back of his "get Brexit done" election.

rock22

CelticRambler wrote: »

...




On this point, I think you're being a bit too severe. Yes, we're hearing these calls for the UK and the EU to sort things out; but rather than it being a case of British exceptionalism, I think it's more a question of disenfranchisement.

Leavers or Remainers, all of these people were told for years that everything would stay the same, that there'd be no disadvantages. Thanks to the transitional measures, that false claim appeared to be true and they tuned out the Brexit noise, even if - in the back of their minds - they were aware of some kind of discussions continuing.

Now that the full-on Brexit has happened and they're feeling the effects, it's understandable that they think there's still room for negotiation and solutions to be found. It's going to take quite a while for them to realise that this is the deal that Johnson signed, sealed and delivered for them, on the back of his "get Brexit done" election.

Perhaps I am being a little too severe but i was reacting to the sense of entitlement they seemed to have and that they feel the EU must solve this. It is a consequence of leaving the EU and the customs union and that was a decision of UK not the EU. So by all means , lobby your local MP to bring about change in the UK but don't call on the EU to change our rules now.

While it is true that some people told them everything would remain the same they were also told, including by the EU no less, that things couldn't remain the same in a hard Brexit. They choose to believe Johnsons "have out cake and eat it" rather than more sane voices.

The problem , identified by Tony Robinson as one of the actors, is that it is not just a work visa. For a touring group it involves custom clearances and carnets for their equipment for each country they wish to visit. This can only really be addressed by UK re-joining the customs union.

Agencies, according to the actors, are now insisting on an EU passport. This is surely to the benefit of EU actors. Why should anyone in the EU want to change that?

murphaph

listermint wrote: »

Just heard from a recruiter of another large British house hold name moving entire procurement operations to Dublin. I keep seeing and hearing these bits and pieces they never make a news article because it's 100-200 jobs here and there.

Collectively leaking jobs which need the EU access and EU trade deals do do business.

Would these be British firms with an existing EU presence?

Strazdas

listermint wrote: »

Just heard from a recruiter of another large British house hold name moving entire procurement operations to Dublin. I keep seeing and hearing these bits and pieces they never make a news article because it's 100-200 jobs here and there.

Collectively leaking jobs which need the EU access and EU trade deals do do business.

I was reading a discussion last night that virtually everything happening re. UK business and Brexit is flying under the radar at the moment because the information is commercially sensitive. Companies generally do not make public announcements such as transferring business to the EU. Goodness knows what all of this must be doing to their economy - this is all happening by stealth (and their media aren't even alluding to any of it).

Padre_Pio

Strazdas wrote: »

I was reading a discussion last night that virtually everything happening re. UK business and Brexit is flying under the radar at the moment because the information is commercially sensitive. Companies generally do not make public announcements such as transferring business to the EU. Goodness knows what all of this must be doing to their economy - this is all happening by stealth (and their media aren't even alluding to any of it).

It will be reflected in GDP and yearly earnings, just not day to day.

Seth Brundle

Yet another food producer has discovered that leaving the EU was not a favourable move for business with Ebay obviously ensuring that EU borders are protected...
https://twitter.com/HartingtonKings/status/1361615762155335681

Kermit.de.frog

There is no way Johnson is going to be able to get through his party any notion of the UK following certain rules on agriculture with the EU to benefit NI. This in turn damages future trade deal opportunities with 3rd parties.

Max Hasting's comments the last couple of days have been instructive as to the what the average English voter (never mind Brexit voter) think of NI which is essentially nothing at all. He says if NI left tomorrow no one would bat an eyelid there.

They just don't care. The idea Boris Johnson is going to go through a war within his party to satisfy the DUP or anyone else in NI is absolutely ludicrous.

So I don't see it as a runner.

Also you'd think things were falling apart trade wise and people were without everyday items and empty shelves everywhere the way some of them go on.

This is not true of course. There were some difficulties in the beginning as companies had a short time to get use to new arrangements (mostly on the GB side) but supermarkets and businesses say that is pretty much resolved now.

Problems are being talked up for political purposes.

CelticRambler

rock22 wrote: »

While it is true that some people told them everything would remain the same they were also told, including by the EU no less, that things couldn't remain the same in a hard Brexit. They choose to believe Johnsons "have out cake and eat it" rather than more sane voices.

Yes, indeed, there were people saying that things would be different, very different, or impossibly different ... but don't forget that unless you have a particular and arguably unhealthy interest in international trade and politics (like us poor divils on this thread ) it's all too easy for the quieter, sane voices to be drowned by the loud-mouth deflections coming from the Brexit pulpit.

My personal leisure activities bring me into contact with internationally travelling musicians, so a couple of years ago my radar picked up some of the very few articles warning about the risks of a no-deal/bad-deal Brexit for musicians and other artists, but this was just one of dozens and dozens and dozens of niches ... and meanwhile, the Government was going all out to say that life would be fine even with a no-deal Brexit - and that's the message that was amplified by the media.

Don't forget, too, that only about 40% of the electorate believed enough in Johnson's vision to give him their vote. If you were living and voting in a Brexiter Tory safe seat, how could you have possibly influenced the outcome? Years of political disenfranchisement prepared the way for otherwise sensible people to be lulled into complacency. Now what? Like people being abruptly woken from a bad night's sleep, it's going to take time for them to get their head together and realise that their instinctive reaction - "sort something out" - no longer works.

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Problems are being talked up for political purposes.

Who's purpose? If Johnson and the Tories don't care about NI then there is no advantage to stoking a fire.

It is not in the EU's interest to create a false issue.

For the DUP to try to portray the deal as unworkable? Perhaps, but you point out that the Tories don't care and won't do anything to help.

Kermit.de.frog

Leroy42 wrote: »

Who's purpose? If Johnson and the Tories don't care about NI then there is no advantage to stoking a fire.

It is not in the EU's interest to create a false issue.

For the DUP to try to portray the deal as unworkable? Perhaps, but you point out that the Tories don't care and won't do anything to help.

The DUP and other unionist politicians mistakenly seem to believe the opposite that despite the number of times the tories have thrown them under the bus that this time will be different.

That's the problem but also they are under pressure with their base locally by the likes of the TUV telling unionists the gang planks have been placed on the border and the invaders are coming across.

Seth Brundle

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The DUP and other unionist politicians mistakenly seem to believe the opposite that despite the number of times the tories have thrown them under the bus that this time will be different.

I think it is more that they have such a misguided paranoid fear of getting closer to the Irish/Catholics - that is pretty much their raison d'être. They will do absolutely anything to avoid that for as many times as it takes.

dogbert27

If you told everybody in England that NI costs them over 9 billion pounds a year to maintain just to be part of Great Britain and Northern Ireland they would be happy to cut ties with NI as they will still be Great Britain!

Peregrinus

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There is no way Johnson is going to be able to get through his party any notion of the UK following certain rules on agriculture with the EU to benefit NI. This in turn damages future trade deal opportunities with 3rd parties.

Max Hasting's comments the last couple of days have been instructive as to the what the average English voter (never mind Brexit voter) think of NI which is essentially nothing at all. He says if NI left tomorrow no one would bat an eyelid there.

I don't think that's how the Tories would sell it, though.

If they did decide to do this, they'd present it as a measure taken to benefit GB farmers, fishers and food producers. (And that would be true — the Tory government is far more likely to u-turn for the sake of GB agriculture, food and fisheries than for the DUP.) They'd present the benefits to NI as a happy by-product of a brilliant Boris strategy to get around the bureaucratic EU and resume exports of Scottish langoustines to Paris.

Widdensushi

dogbert27 wrote: »

If you told everybody in England that NI costs them over 9 billion pounds a year to maintain just to be part of Great Britain and Northern Ireland they would be happy to cut ties with NI as they will still be Great Britain!

It would cost them billions for the foreseeable anyway, they would still have a financial obligation for pensions etc

dogbert27

Widdensushi wrote: »

It would cost them billions for the foreseeable anyway, they would still have a financial obligation for pensions etc

That's just a minor detail. Sure aren't they saving 350 mill a week thanks to Brexit!

I bet there are still people who are believing that one even though it was discredited.

View

dogbert27 wrote: »

If you told everybody in England that NI costs them over 9 billion pounds a year to maintain just to be part of Great Britain and Northern Ireland they would be happy to cut ties with NI as they will still be Great Britain!

Most of them wouldn’t though. Just because an area is a net recipient of monies doesn’t mean a country abandons it.

There are no doubt many counties in Ireland that are net recipient of monies but that doesn’t mean that the people in Dublin want to throw the people in, let’s say, Leitrim overboard.

Strazdas

dogbert27 wrote: »

That's just a minor detail. Sure aren't they saving 350 mill a week thanks to Brexit!

I bet there are still people who are believing that one even though it was discredited.

Someone calculated that membership of the Single Market generated around £75bn for the UK economy. The Brexit decision was like something from a maths class in primary school.

Peregrinus

View wrote: »

Most of them wouldn’t though. Just because an area is a net recipient of monies doesn’t mean a country abandons it.

There are no doubt many counties in Ireland that are net recipient of monies but that doesn’t mean that the people in Dublin want to throw the people in, let’s say, Leitrim overboard.

Yes, but people in England don't feel the same affinity with people in NI as Dubliners do for people in Leitrim. Pretty much the whole history of NI since partition illustrates this, right down to — yes, the NI Protocol.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1362068422264311809

This is good to see. Reading through it you can see how the north is attractive for investment with the new arrangements.