Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

dogbert27

dogbert27 wrote: »

If you told everybody in England that NI costs them over 9 billion pounds a year to maintain just to be part of Great Britain and Northern Ireland they would be happy to cut ties with NI as they will still be Great Britain!

Can see the red bus now;

"We send the Irish £173 million a week
let's fund our NHS instead"

joeysoap

I was on holidays in Portugal in 2016 and we met a British family. ( as you do). They absolutely believed the red bus. If we met them tomorrow its probably the same.

breezy1985

joeysoap wrote: »

I was on holidays in Portugal in 2016 and we met a British family. ( as you do). They absolutely believed the red bus. If we met them tomorrow its probably the same.

I heard a fair few people trot it out in London.

A much more widely used slogan though was the idea that all foreign aid should be cut to help British people. A fallacy that gets spewed out in Ireland too

Strazdas

joeysoap wrote: »

I was on holidays in Portugal in 2016 and we met a British family. ( as you do). They absolutely believed the red bus. If we met them tomorrow its probably the same.

Shows how nuts it was to hold a hastily thrown together referendum on a very complicated constitutional issue. A dumbed down, unserious electorate prepared to believe any cheap populist slogan from the likes of Vote Leave and Nigel Farage.

yagan

breezy1985 wrote: »

I heard a fair few people trot it out in London.

A much more widely used slogan though was the idea that all foreign aid should be cut to help British people. A fallacy that gets spewed out in Ireland too

I find the "we can't afford Northern Ireland" a tiresome argument considering that we've only recently become a net contributor to the EU budget.

It does make you wonder if they're just scared of Northern Ireland Tayto.

kowloon

breezy1985 wrote: »

I heard a fair few people trot it out in London.

A much more widely used slogan though was the idea that all foreign aid should be cut to help British people. A fallacy that gets spewed out in Ireland too

I mean you don't go to the bother of painting an entire bus unless you have you facts straight, right?

NeuralNetwork

It seems some in the EU are starting to question whether we're trying to just balance UK and EU interests against each other.

"“There is a growing concern that Dublin is tempted to follow a policy of equidistance towards the EU and the UK on Northern Ireland,” as one EU diplomat told the Financial Times."

"EU fears Ireland risks undermining common cause by dwelling on Article 16
Analysis: Feeling in Europe that Ireland needs to be reminded solidarity works both ways"

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/eu-fears-ireland-risks-undermining-common-cause-by-dwelling-on-article-16-1.4487869?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

I'm increasingly underwhelmed by this Commission. There seems to be a tendency to diplomatically misstep. I'd call that a fairly serious misstep again as it's just fed yet more to the Brexiteers in the UK to now start a whole thread of "EU throws Eire under Bus"

Also, what exactly is London feeding to the EU and to national capitals about Ireland's position? I have come across this a few times before and also a notion that Ireland and the UK are similar in politics or point of view keeps being regurgitated by some continental sources, even though they're polls apart at the moment.

You can be 100% certain we're being briefed against or about to cause tensions between Ireland and the EU.

Leroy42

I think the EU are simply fed up with the UK and after expending so much energy on the NI issue they probably feel that Ireland simply has to accept the new reality and get busy getting on with things.

Jizique

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think the EU are simply fed up with the UK and after expending so much energy on the NI issue they probably feel that Ireland simply has to accept the new reality and get busy getting on with things.

They are correct too -,everyone needs to suck it up for a bit

Kermit.de.frog

The rhetoric of the Irish Government – with Taoiseach Micheál Martin telling the BBC that EU allies “need to cool it”

I do think MM needs to get real here. Varadkar would never have made that statement.

The reality is we need that protocol to fully work or there will be a physical border back on this island in a flash.

There is no half way house. MM trying to be all things to all people is not going to cut it here.

Strazdas

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

It seems some in the EU are starting to question whether we're trying to just balance UK and EU interests against each other.

"“There is a growing concern that Dublin is tempted to follow a policy of equidistance towards the EU and the UK on Northern Ireland,” as one EU diplomat told the Financial Times."

"EU fears Ireland risks undermining common cause by dwelling on Article 16
Analysis: Feeling in Europe that Ireland needs to be reminded solidarity works both ways"

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/eu-fears-ireland-risks-undermining-common-cause-by-dwelling-on-article-16-1.4487869?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

I'm increasingly underwhelmed by this Commission. There seems to be a tendency to diplomatically misstep. I'd call that a fairly serious misstep again as it's just fed yet more to the Brexiteers in the UK to now start a whole thread of "EU throws Eire under Bus"

Also, what exactly is London feeding to the EU and to national capitals about Ireland's position? I have come across this a few times before and also a notion that Ireland and the UK are similar in politics or point of view keeps being regurgitated by some continental sources, even though they're polls apart at the moment.

You can be 100% certain we're being briefed against or about to cause tensions between Ireland and the EU.

I'd be sceptical if there's any real substance to this. The Brexiteers clearly cannot be trusted for a moment.....it's very hard to believe that the likes of Martin, Coveney and Varadkar would have any truck with them or would side with them in a dispute with the Commission. Ireland's first allegiance has to be to the Single Market.

NeuralNetwork

Strazdas wrote: »

I'd be sceptical if there's any real substance to this. The Brexiteers clearly cannot be trusted for a moment.....it's very hard to believe that the likes of Martin, Coveney and Varadkar would have any truck with them or would side with them in a dispute with the Commission. Ireland's first allegiance has to be to the Single Market.

That's what I mean though. I wouldn't at all be surprised if there are deliberate spin doctor types briefing against Ireland in EU capitals to either cause trouble or to make us look more like we're on side with the UK on this.

They're looking for every crack at the moment so they can drive wedges into it. You're seeing that with the vaccine issues for example.

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

Shows how nuts it was to hold a hastily thrown together referendum on a very complicated constitutional issue. A dumbed down, unserious electorate prepared to believe any cheap populist slogan from the likes of Vote Leave and Nigel Farage.

I wonder is David Cameron sleeping well these days.

listermint

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

That's what I mean though. I wouldn't at all be surprised if there are deliberate spin doctor types briefing against Ireland in EU capitals to either cause trouble or to make us look more like we're on side with the UK on this.

100 hundred percent. The UK and any of its operatives should be treated as an information warfare enemy.

At this point it's all they have left to save their struggling economy. They will continue to try make small deals and sow discord.

The musicians visa and the individually country approach rather than dealing with the EU is an example of that. They are sticking to their playbook. Try everything to avoid recognising the EU. Do everything to speak directly with countries.


They are actively engaged in this war

yagan

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think the EU are simply fed up with the UK and after expending so much energy on the NI issue they probably feel that Ireland simply has to accept the new reality and get busy getting on with things.

Exactly, the demerging of the UK is underway and GB is transitioning to being a third party to our economy.

EU has social stability across an entire continent to consider too, especially coming out of a pandemic has its own economic challenges that requires our focus rather than advocating on behalf of a country that spurned us.

fly_agaric

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

That's what I mean though. I wouldn't at all be surprised if there are deliberate spin doctor types briefing against Ireland in EU capitals to either cause trouble or to make us look more like we're on side with the UK on this.

They're looking for every crack at the moment so they can drive wedges into it. You're seeing that with the vaccine issues for example.

Could be right. That comment of his came across a bit odd.

He (Micheál Martin) is around so long he was an integral part of some governments that were I think somewhat luke-warm about the EU (for Ireland anyway, which has generally been an enthusiastic member). This was when the country was absolutely booming.

There was a bit of a contemptuous attitude developing here back then (encapsulated in that phrase "closer to Boston than Berlin"). It did not age well in the end + the world has changed a bit since then.

NeuralNetwork

I don't think they're seeing Micheál Martin in that light to be honest. You're talking about an era long before Maroš Šefčovič had any involvement with European politics and before Slovakia was even in the EU in 2004.

The Boston or Berlin statement was about taxation and made by Mary Harney, the leader of a party that no longer exists and it was made 21 years ago in 2000.

What I would say though is there's a weird assumption on the continent that I've encountered personally that there's no difference between the UK and Ireland. It's not something that I've encountered in France, Spain or Germany, but the further you go into places unfamiliar with Irish-British relations or that have no particular connection with British history, the more likely you are to get sweeping statements made based on language spoken and proximity.

I remember being quite taken aback when Brexit happened that a lot of people from further afield were just assuming that Ireland would follow suit, even though it's a not even remotely on the agenda here, and if anything would be more of a live issue in Italy, France and the Netherlands and maybe some of the Nordic members.

I would just be a little cautious that the UK sources could well be spinning all sorts of nonsense about what's going on in Ireland. I mean if you look into most of their tabloid and even not-so-tabloid coverage of Irish politics in recent years, it's been utterly distorted.

It's also important to remember that a lot of the EU will be far less familiar with Irish politics than we think it is and our system is very complex due to PR-STV and a quite radically different situation with left/right politics not really being a strong dichotomy etc etc. It's often quite difficult to explain Irish politics abroad. Although, arguably I've had less issues explaining it in somewhere like Germany, the Netherlands or Scandinavia where complex coalitions and PR voting are common, than I have in France or Spain where there's an expectation of clear dichotomies between left and right.

I mean, if you ask your average Irish political about the political situation in Finland or Cyprus, I don't think they'd be much very likely to have much of a grasp and the same applies to many people's grasp of Irish politics from an overseas perspective.

We're pretty good on diplomacy but I think we need to be very good on PR and communications in Europe as well as just talking to the international markets. It would do no harm to ensure that Irish positions are put forward in media beyond just the English language international news channels.

fly_agaric

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

I don't think they're seeing Micheál Martin in that light to be honest.

Sorry, I was more thinking about Martin's own beliefs about the EU + what could have caused him to make an odd (in my opinion) comment like that where he seemed to be doing a "both sides" and setting up Ireland as external to the EU and in between 2 disagreeing parties.

Was reaching, more likely just the government here has been a bit shocked by the EU Commission mis-step with the NI protocol.

edit: those poorly formed ideas on Micheál Martin were separate to agreeing with your statement "I wouldn't at all be surprised if there are deliberate spin doctor types briefing against Ireland in EU capitals to either cause trouble or make us look more like we're on side with the UK on this".

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

You're talking about an era long before Maroš Šefčovič had any involvement with European politics and before Slovakia was even in the EU in 2004.

The Boston or Berlin statement was about taxation and made by Mary Harney, the leader of a party that no longer exists and it was made 21 years ago in 2000.

I'm an old dog but I only vaguely recall what it was about.
I thought it was wider philosophical thing about economic management - we in Ireland prefer more "energetic" US type capitalism (i.e. the former PDs beliefs in low taxes, privatisation, deregulation, the free market etc etc).

When you remind me of the age of that stale quote and how much has changed (incl. what countries were EU members), Micheál Martin has had some political longevity.

NeuralNetwork

It was pretty narrowly focused on taxation from what I remember of it and read of it. She was talking about the low taxation policies here being to stimulate growth as opposed to the high taxation and high spending politics of central Europe, notably late 90s / early 2000s (pre-Merkel) Germany. That was actually 5 years before Merkel took office as Chancellor and was probably a reference to Gerhard Schröder's SDP administration's policies on taxation at the time.

I think the quote was probably somewhat misused to illustrate something far more complex when it was used by media afterwards, when I genuinely don't think that's where it was coming from at all at the time. I'm pretty sure there was some harsh commentary in the background about Ireland's corporation tax rates at the time (nothing changed there).

I mean the PDs fit fairly squarely into the Liberal bloc in the European parliament ELDR (ALDE and now Renew Europe) grouping. They were certainly pro-business but they weren't in anyway anti-EU.

I wouldn't be the hugest fan of their economic policies, but I think they get somewhat inappropriately thrown into the same category as the Tories when they were pretty far away from that, especially on social issues, where they were pretty progressive.

Ireland's biggest anti-EU stances tended to be during referenda and they were usually driven by rather paranoid views on what were once trigger items here, notably abortion etc. It just shows Ireland's changed a hell of a lot over the last few decades though when you think back to some of those referendum debates.

I remember trying to explain to someone in France about a debate that was going on here about the Nice Treaty and much of it was around totally parallel issues that had nothing to do with the actual treaty at all.

The view of Ireland can be a bit weird. If you're paying attention in recent years, you'd get the sense it's quite liberal and progressive, but you still get the odd old stereotype about catholic conservative values, which did hold true here until the 1990s at least. Then you've an assumption by some that it must be exactly like the UK as it looks a bit like the UK, it speaks predominantly the same language and is very near by. We might think the same of say Germany and Austria or lump Belgium and France together totally inappropriately too at times.

I just wouldn't conclude that we're necessarily a well known variable in Europe and we've also gone from quite far right positions on social issues to quite progressive ones in a very short period of time, which can add to those confusions sometimes.

On the flip side of it though, I think a lot of continental europeans have a far better understanding of complex borders, contested regions and tensions that exist around Northern Ireland than perhaps commentators in the UK do. There are parallels between the conflicts here and in many places around Europe both contemporary ones and those in recent history.

Take Belgium for example. The average Belgian will have a very strong grasp of why Northern Ireland's so divided as it very closely mirrors the politics of their language divide, even if that never got as extreme. A lot of Germans also tend to see Irish reunification through the lens of their own reunification, so I wouldn't necessarily underestimate their understanding of why such a situation is rather fraught with tension.

Ireland's better off appealing to those kinds of comparisons rather than jumping into an "only in Ireland" type of exceptionalism too. A lot of what happened on this island is very much understood and paralleled in Europe. Many of the smaller countries also know what it's like to be stuck in the shadow or firing line of a large and unpredictable neighbour or to be used like the way Northern Ireland has been by the Tories in a geopolitical argument between two big players.

fly_agaric

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

I mean the PDs fit fairly squarely into the Liberal bloc in the European parliament ELDR (ALDE and now Renew Europe) grouping. They were certainly pro-business but they weren't in anyway anti-EU.

I wouldn't be the hugest fan of their economic policies, but I think they get somewhat inappropriately thrown into the same category as the Tories when they were pretty far away from that, especially on social issues, where they were pretty progressive.

Ireland's biggest anti-EU stances tended to be during referenda and they were usually driven by rather paranoid views on what were once trigger items here, notably abortion etc. It just shows Ireland's changed a hell of a lot over the last few decades though when you think back to some of those referendum debates.

Diverging off topic now, but I agree none of those FF coalition governments (or the PDs themselves) were actively "anti-EU"/Eurosceptic in any way whatsoever.

As you say, such Eurosceptic sentiment as there is in Ireland coalesces around the referenda etc. where a whole load of unrelated issues get dragged into debate.

As I remember the period, the lengthy economic boom made politicians here a bit arrogant, and I think that manifested in apathy + taking the EU and Irish membership of it for granted. I picked out that quote (maybe unfairly).

The lacklustre + losing EU referendum campaigns by governments over the period would be another example of it.

Jizique

fly_agaric wrote: »

Diverging off topic now, but I agree none of those FF coalition governments (or the PDs themselves) were actively "anti-EU"/Eurosceptic in any way whatsoever.

As you say, such Eurosceptic sentiment as there is in Ireland coalesces around the referenda etc. where a whole load of unrelated issues get dragged into debate.

As I remember the period, the lengthy economic boom made politicians here a bit arrogant, and I think that manifested in apathy + taking the EU and Irish membership of it for granted. I picked out that quote (maybe unfairly).

The lacklustre + losing EU referendum campaigns by governments over the period would be another example of it.

With unelected lord Frost appointed to cabinet and to take charge of the EU relations (effectively taking over from Gove), the outlook for relations with the EU are fairly grim; reading Foster and Payne of FT and Twitter the suggestion is that he was close to Cummings and Cain, and that he will have little to offer the EU in terms of getting the agreement to work (unlike Gove)

Larbre34

A failure by Frost to manage well relationships will be very much more Britain's problem than EU members.

I'm highly amused at the Tory left wing coming out to appeal to Boris to reopen the Brexit talks to address policing and security intelligence issues that are becoming apparent. Sorry lads, but Brexit is done, over and finished. By all means come as a third country and open new dialogue whereby you can pay the EU to access this stuff, but its a new transaction and no different to Morocco or Ukraine or somebody looking to improve their international law enforcement.

I kinda wish I lived in Cyprus or Portugal or somewhere, I'll bet talk of Brexit has become ancient history for those parts of the Union.

NeuralNetwork

It will likely become old news here too as things bed in and supply chains morph around the problems.

If Northern Ireland ends up doing better than Britain as a result of their special arrangement I think the discussion up there will change too. They’re getting an extremely sweet deal if they’re willing to use it properly.

joeysoap

I’m not from Dublin bits the easiest place to say where your from if asked. I have often hired a car on holidays to discover ‘I’m British’ :eek: on the paperwork!!! This despite being from Dublin :rolleyes: as well.

dogbert27

Another sector in the UK being hit due to Brexit.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9272379/Brexit-rules-100-000-export-orders-trees-axed-Northern-Ireland.html

NI cannot buy trees from mainland UK. Looks like they'll have to source them from the EU!

"FXXk Business" as the Tories say! :rolleyes:

Sam Russell

GBP is on a run at the moment.

It is the highest it has been since March last year. Currently 86.7p = €1 which is quite a shift.

A month ago it was over 89p with a slow improvement since Sept last when it was testing 93p, and particularly since the beginning of this year. In the first week, it hovered above 90p and now is below 87p which is quite a shift in sentiment.

The UK Covid vaccination plan appears to have injected a bit of optimism despite the thousand cuts running through the economy.

listermint

Sam Russell wrote: »

GBP is on a run at the moment.

It is the highest it has been since March last year. Currently 86.7p = €1 which is quite a shift.

A month ago it was over 89p with a slow improvement since Sept last when it was testing 93p, and particularly since the beginning of this year. In the first week, it hovered above 90p and now is below 87p which is quite a shift in sentiment.

The UK Covid vaccination plan appears to have injected a bit of optimism despite the thousand cuts running through the economy.

I'm still of the opinion there's enough money domestic and foreign swimming around London to manipulate the sterling markets tbh. I think the value of the pound tells us sweet f all.

The current state of its value goes against all economic reasoning . Therefore something else is at play. Just like we saw with GameStop. The stock market is well open to interference.

I'd be interested to see where currency trading purchases are coming from.

dogbert27

Sam Russell wrote: »

GBP is on a run at the moment.

It is the highest it has been since March last year. Currently 86.7p = €1 which is quite a shift.

A month ago it was over 89p with a slow improvement since Sept last when it was testing 93p, and particularly since the beginning of this year. In the first week, it hovered above 90p and now is below 87p which is quite a shift in sentiment.

The UK Covid vaccination plan appears to have injected a bit of optimism despite the thousand cuts running through the economy.

They're forecasting that due to the coronavirus lockdowns people have not been spending as much money and now with the vaccinations and the lockdowns easing all that money is about to be spent in the high street showing the economy "roaring" back.

listermint

dogbert27 wrote: »

They're forecasting that due to the coronavirus lockdowns people have not been spending as much money and now with the vaccinations and the lockdowns easing all that money is about to be spent in the high street showing the economy "roaring" back.

Forecasting for when though. Next week ? Next month ?

There's no facts behind this

dogbert27

listermint wrote: »

Forecasting for when though. Next week ? Next month ?

There's no facts behind this

When do markets ever follow facts?