Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

listermint wrote: »

Forecasting for when though. Next week ? Next month ?

There's no facts behind this

To be fair , most economists are predicting varying levels of boom globally once things return to normal on foot of significant pent up demand- The analogies to the "Roaring twenties" following WW1 and the Spanish flu are quite widespread.

But as you rightly say the "when" of this is the unknown and realistically it will be mid 2022 at the earliest before we are likely to have reached a level of world-wide vaccination to facilitate this economic expansion.

View

yagan wrote: »

I find the "we can't afford Northern Ireland" a tiresome argument considering that we've only recently become a net contributor to the EU budget.

It does make you wonder if they're just scared of Northern Ireland Tayto.

Given that the annual subvention from the U.K. Treasury to NI amounts to circa £12 billion, and the entire income tax revenue amounts to circa €25 billion, we can’t afford NI without having massive tax hikes to pay for that subvention and/or having massive spending cuts in NI.

Either of those options would be unlikely to do the prospect of a united Ireland any favours since the cold shock of a big jump in your income tax and/or local spending cuts in NI, would rapidly cool the ardour of even the most enthusiastic supporters.

PeadarCo

dogbert27 wrote: »

They're forecasting that due to the coronavirus lockdowns people have not been spending as much money and now with the vaccinations and the lockdowns easing all that money is about to be spent in the high street showing the economy "roaring" back.

The thing is the UK economy will probably bounce back once lock down ends. However it will be a matter of how big the growth will be. The UKs growth will be less than if it had stayed in the EU. I imagine Brexit supporters will trumpet this growth(however much it is) as being down to Brexit regardless of how well other countries are doing at least in the short term.

It will be interesting to see how Brexit impacts post Covid as some of the issues will only start to cause problems then ie travelling to work in the EU and requiring a Visa.

CelticRambler

View wrote: »

Given that the annual subvention from the U.K. Treasury to NI amounts to circa £12 billion, and the entire income tax revenue amounts to circa €25 billion, we can’t afford NI without having massive tax hikes to pay for that subvention and/or having massive spending cuts in NI.

That's pure Brexiter logic: let's take the current situation, change it drastically and then base all our forecasts on things remaining exactly the same. :rolleyes:

As to the strength of GBP, I'm puzzled as to why the supposed pent-up demand theory only applies to the UK. If we're all going to benefit from a post-Covid surge, it doesn't make sense for GBP to be strengthening against EUR and USD and CHF (amongst others).

I'd be wondering if there are "forces" using the positive vaccination spin to get themselves into position to profit from a sharp reversal when the vaccinees realise just how much Brexit has damage life as they knew it before.

View

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

It seems some in the EU are starting to question whether we're trying to just balance UK and EU interests against each other.

"“There is a growing concern that Dublin is tempted to follow a policy of equidistance towards the EU and the UK on Northern Ireland,” as one EU diplomat told the Financial Times."

"EU fears Ireland risks undermining common cause by dwelling on Article 16
Analysis: Feeling in Europe that Ireland needs to be reminded solidarity works both ways"

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/eu-fears-ireland-risks-undermining-common-cause-by-dwelling-on-article-16-1.4487869?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

I'm increasingly underwhelmed by this Commission. There seems to be a tendency to diplomatically misstep. I'd call that a fairly serious misstep again as it's just fed yet more to the Brexiteers in the UK to now start a whole thread of "EU throws Eire under Bus"

Also, what exactly is London feeding to the EU and to national capitals about Ireland's position? I have come across this a few times before and also a notion that Ireland and the UK are similar in politics or point of view keeps being regurgitated by some continental sources, even though they're polls apart at the moment.

You can be 100% certain we're being briefed against or about to cause tensions between Ireland and the EU.

And the EU diplomats are right to question our actions since they seem to be based on the idea that Ireland can simultaneously ride the EU and Brexit Britain horses, even though the latter seems determined to head off at right angles to the former.

We only have to look at the recent proposal on the “art 16” ban, in which we regarded having a secured supply of vaccine for all EU citizens as being less important than maintaining our theoretical right to export vaccine that we don’t have to NI, which has a relative surplus of it due to being part of U.K. vaccine programme.

Likewise during the Brexit process, we demanded full solidarity from the other EU countries for our position on the border, while simultaneously going off on a solo run and entering into a “CTA agreement” which guaranteed rights to British citizens here and Irish citizens in Britain which go way beyond what were agreed in the WA. There was no sign of solidarity from us to our fellow EU citizens when we did that.

View

CelticRambler wrote: »

That's pure Brexiter logic: let's take the current situation, change it drastically and then base all our forecasts on things remaining exactly the same. :rolleyes:

As to the strength of GBP, I'm puzzled as to why the supposed pent-up demand theory only applies to the UK. If we're all going to benefit from a post-Covid surge, it doesn't make sense for GBP to be strengthening against EUR and USD and CHF (amongst others).

I'd be wondering if there are "forces" using the positive vaccination spin to get themselves into position to profit from a sharp reversal when the vaccinees realise just how much Brexit has damage life as they knew it before.

No, it’s not Brexiter logic, particularly as there is no talk of a “radical change” to NI, and in particular in relation to the economy there.

The bills for public services and the tax take from NI isn’t going to radically alter just because you change the flag over NI. At best any change to the subvention amount, due to a change in flag,
is likely to be minor - and the subvention amount required could well increase, not decrease, if the security situation there deteriorated, particularly if you are trying to “radically alter” NI politically/governmentally wise.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/RonanMcCrea/status/1362325710380163074

I do think these issues are coming down to MM and the type of politician he is always looking for consensus.

I don't believe that is what is needed and think he is the wrong man for the job at this particular time. It's a style issue imo.

I'd have Coveney or someone more firm in the job at the moment.

I'm concerned MM's attempts to try placate certain unionist opinion which can't be placated is damaging the efforts with the protocol.

Also the EU's action over article 16 were incredibly ignorant and dangerous but I agree the cold hard reality is that, having long aired rightful anger, it's time for politicians here to keep quiet about it now.

We have one goal. To prevent a physical customs border on this island.

Any sense of incohesion and infighting will be manipulated ruthlessly by this particular tory government.

Everyone needs to stay on the same page and MM needs to pick a side. There is no halfway house. Checks on the island or checks at the ports. There is no middle.

Padre_Pio

View wrote: »

Given that the annual subvention from the U.K. Treasury to NI amounts to circa £12 billion, and the entire income tax revenue amounts to circa €25 billion, we can’t afford NI without having massive tax hikes to pay for that subvention and/or having massive spending cuts in NI.
.

This supposes that Ni would join RoI overnight.

Not going to happen. There should be at least 10 years transition, maybe 20, where the UK slowly hands over power and weans the NI state off welfare.

Not going to be easy, but it could be done.

I think it would be a fantastic lesson.

30 years of violence solved f*ck all.
30 years of (sometimes uneasy) peace and the country is united.

johnnyskeleton

Mod note:

The topic is Brexit, not a United Ireland. Plenty of other threads on United Ireland, including the potential implications of Brexit on a United Ireland.

CelticRambler

Well ... just listened to Keir Starmer's supposedly landmark speech. Jeeez - Britain is fkkkkd. Numerous references to WW2, lots of blather about building a Great Britain in the future, covid, covid, covid ... and not a single reference to Brexit. :rolleyes:

listermint

CelticRambler wrote: »

Well ... just listened to Keir Starmer's supposedly landmark speech. Jeeez - Britain is fkkkkd. Numerous references to WW2, lots of blather about building a Great Britain in the future, covid, covid, covid ... and not a single reference to Brexit. :rolleyes:

The only rational explanation someone could say for that is they are sitting in the long grass waiting for the full crap to hit the fan whether thats July or what they are pinning their hopes on eggs on Tory faces.

There doesn't appear to be any other rationale.

ancapailldorcha

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Mod note:

The topic is Brexit, not a United Ireland. Plenty of other threads on United Ireland, including the potential implications of Brexit on a United Ireland.

A post has been removed.

Leroy42

listermint wrote: »

The only rational explanation someone could say for that is they are sitting in the long grass waiting for the full crap to hit the fan whether thats July or what they are pinning their hopes on eggs on Tory faces.

There doesn't appear to be any other rationale.

But BRexit will never be a big bang. It will be thousands of little things, each of which can, in isolation, be ignored. The fishermen for example. A pretty major story really, particularly given how much weight it was given during the negotiations, yet it was ignored as in reality it has very minimal effect.

But Labour should be pointing these problems out. Consistently. The music industry, NI, movement of funds etc. Each one can be pretty easily skipped past by the government by, like BRexit itself, this is a long term strategy. 4 years of consistently pointing out the failures of Johnson and his deal, four years of consistently holding Give and Frost and JRM etc to account for why decisions were made.

That is how, IMO, they can have any chance. They won't get a gotcha moment which will true the seats back to labour with a single speech.

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

But BRexit will never be a big bang. It will be thousands of little things, each of which can, in isolation, be ignored.

And isn't that exactly the trap Starmer's walked into? Deliberately or otherwise, he didn't even make a passing reference to the effect of Brexit on the post-Covid recovery, so he's now just as guilty as the government as writing off the current difficulties as insignificant. Listening to him trot out all the old clichés (even the Blitz spirit trope FFS :rolleyes: ) he could have passed as someone campaigning to be the next Tory leader.

listermint

Leroy42 wrote: »

But BRexit will never be a big bang. It will be thousands of little things, each of which can, in isolation, be ignored. The fishermen for example. A pretty major story really, particularly given how much weight it was given during the negotiations, yet it was ignored as in reality it has very minimal effect.

But Labour should be pointing these problems out. Consistently. The music industry, NI, movement of funds etc. Each one can be pretty easily skipped past by the government by, like BRexit itself, this is a long term strategy. 4 years of consistently pointing out the failures of Johnson and his deal, four years of consistently holding Give and Frost and JRM etc to account for why decisions were made.

That is how, IMO, they can have any chance. They won't get a gotcha moment which will true the seats back to labour with a single speech.

I don't agree with their abysmal strategy but on the face of it , that appears to be the rationale.

Completely flawed obviously.

lawred2

listermint wrote: »

The only rational explanation someone could say for that is they are sitting in the long grass waiting for the full crap to hit the fan whether thats July or what they are pinning their hopes on eggs on Tory faces.

There doesn't appear to be any other rationale.

They'll have no doubt focus grouped Brexit as a topic and found it received little traction. So out it goes.

Politicians being politicians.

dublin49

CelticRambler wrote: »

And isn't that exactly the trap Starmer's walked into? Deliberately or otherwise, he didn't even make a passing reference to the effect of Brexit on the post-Covid recovery, so he's now just as guilty as the government as writing off the current difficulties as insignificant. Listening to him trot out all the old clichés (even the Blitz spirit trope FFS :rolleyes: ) he could have passed as someone campaigning to be the next Tory leader.

He needs to pick his moment on Brexit,all focus is currently on Covid,vaccine roll out etc,the thinking might be that now is not the time, Brexit is not an easy target,the 52% that voted for it will need to persuaded of the folly of their choice without Labour seeming to be siding with the pesky EU against "Their Sovereign nation". The Tories message will be" The EU is too blame",how do you counter that without at least appearing to be on the wrong side.The Right wing press will defend the Tories against reasonable argument and make it into " the second battle of Britain",so I understand the reluctance to address Brexit at this time.

Kermit.de.frog

CelticRambler wrote: »

Well ... just listened to Keir Starmer's supposedly landmark speech. Jeeez - Britain is fkkkkd. Numerous references to WW2, lots of blather about building a Great Britain in the future, covid, covid, covid ... and not a single reference to Brexit. :rolleyes:

I think Britain just wants to move on now to be perfectly honest. For people in GB Brexit is done and they have to look after other things and bring success to their country.

Brexit will fall further and further back in everyday political discourse.

The debate is more on the EU side from now on. How Britain does on it's own will not go on unnoticed particularly in the bigger member states. Particulary the vulnerable countries with cohesive anti EU movements like France, the Netherlands and Italy.

Britain has the first comprehensive propaganda victory with the vaccines.

Let's see if those victories continue.

But they are right to move on. What's done is done.

breezy1985

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think Britain just wants to move on now to be perfectly honest. For people in GB Brexit is done and they have to look after other things and bring success to their country.

Brexit will fall further and further back in everyday political discourse.

The debate is more on the EU side from now on. How Britain does on it's own will not go on unnoticed particularly in the bigger member states. Particulary the vulnerable countries with cohesive anti EU movements like France, the Netherlands and Italy.

Britain has the first comprehensive propaganda victory with the vaccines.

Let's see if those victories continue.

But they are right to move on. What's done is done.

Brexit will not fall further back because the effects of it won't and I know it's only a small anecdotal focus group but non of my friends in London are ready to let Brexit fall back the political discourse.

As for the vaccines gambling with the health of the general public is wrong no matter how many propaganda victories it leads to and whether the gamble worked or not boasting about taking that risk as a victory is sick

Leroy42

dublin49 wrote: »

He needs to pick his moment on Brexit,all focus is currently on Covid,vaccine roll out etc,the thinking might be that now is not the time, Brexit is not an easy target,the 52% that voted for it will need to persuaded of the folly of their choice without Labour seeming to be siding with the pesky EU against "Their Sovereign nation". The Tories message will be" The EU is too blame",how do you counter that without at least appearing to be on the wrong side.The Right wing press will defend the Tories against reasonable argument and make it into " the second battle of Britain",so I understand the reluctance to address Brexit at this time.

It's all on Covid, except when it needs something to divert from Covid and then it's straight back to Brexit.

The Tories never shut up about Brexit. Why do Labour feel the need to be quiet when the Tories are out every day talking about it?

They don't need to even mention the EU. The deal is done. Now its time to attack the signatories of that deal. Johsnon and Frost with a massive helping for Gove.

Why did they abandon the fishermen? What are they going to do to support artists? The fashion industry? Where are the new jobs going to come from?

Its not about fighting about Brexit, its about fighting for the future of UK. Where are they great opportunities they keep talking about? Why did they not publish the economic impact of the deal? What are they going to do about NI? Have they a plan for the possibility of shortages of nurses due to lack of FoM? What will yound people do instead of summer jobs in Europe? What is the plan for food standards.

These are things that should be easy to answer after 5 years, and yet the government clearly have no plans. Any functioning opposition should be hammering them.

Everyday, every PMQT, another question, another dig, another chance to show up the government.

They seem to have given up the whole point of opposition. Shoe on the other foot there is no way the Tories would simply accept the situation and agree not to mention it.

Nody

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think Britain just wants to move on now to be perfectly honest. For people in GB Brexit is done and they have to look after other things and bring success to their country.

Brexit will fall further and further back in everyday political discourse.

The debate is more on the EU side from now on. How Britain does on it's own will not go on unnoticed particularly in the bigger member states. Particulary the vulnerable countries with cohesive anti EU movements like France, the Netherlands and Italy.

Britain has the first comprehensive propaganda victory with the vaccines.

Let's see if those victories continue.

But they are right to move on. What's done is done.

Sorry to spoil the day for you Kermit but it's very much not the case. You see as part of the deal Boris has signed there are multiple negotiations that will come up pretty much every year on various different topics; and in each one of those negotiations there's a possibility that something goes wrong. For example; we have upcoming data agreement that will be reviewed and renegotiated after 4 years (currently in grace period), we have the fishing policy coming up after 5 years etc. And those are the once that are generally agreed before we start talking NI protocol, financial rule alignments etc. which are more or less up in the air currently.

This is the bit that people in the UK may think Brexit is done and dusted and negotiations have ended but in reality it's instead morphed into a constant negotiation with EU on various topics and each one of those can have dire and very direct consequences. For example if data protection is deemed not strong enough suddenly all data has to be shifted to a EU country for UK companies and the police can't search certain databases they still have access to. Once fishing and electric grid comes around again (and I'm sure the Daily mail along with Nigel will howl about how the fish should all go to UK fishermen etc.) there could be black outs required if UK is not allowed to access the EU network (it's tied with fishing negotiations intentionally).

And that's the part that's not going to stop; Brexit as a topic is not going to go away. The problems from Brexit will not stop in six months time or all be ironed out; rather they will keep coming back over and over again in various forms. The UK public may be tired of hearing about it but it will be a main line item for very many years to come; and it's unlikely to be improvement headlines either.

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think Britain just wants to move on now to be perfectly honest. For people in GB Brexit is done and they have to look after other things and bring success to their country.

Is that why they never stop bleating about it? The deal is terrible, the EU are terrible, the deal needs to be reopened. NI is all Irelands fault.

schmoo2k

schmoo2k wrote: »

As to the strength of GBP, I'm puzzled as to why the supposed pent-up demand theory only applies to the UK. If we're all going to benefit from a post-Covid surge, it doesn't make sense for GBP to be strengthening against EUR and USD and CHF (amongst others).

It doesn't, but it will happen in the UK before much of Europe because they're very, very far ahead when it comes to vaccinating their population.

PeadarCo

Nody wrote: »

Sorry to spoil the day for you Kermit but it's very much not the case. You see as part of the deal Boris has signed there are multiple negotiations that will come up pretty much every year on various different topics; and in each one of those negotiations there's a possibility that something goes wrong. For example; we have upcoming data agreement that will be reviewed and renegotiated after 4 years (currently in grace period), we have the fishing policy coming up after 5 years etc. And those are the once that are generally agreed before we start talking NI protocol, financial rule alignments etc. which are more or less up in the air currently.

This is the bit that people in the UK may think Brexit is done and dusted and negotiations have ended but in reality it's instead morphed into a constant negotiation with EU on various topics and each one of those can have dire and very direct consequences. For example if data protection is deemed not strong enough suddenly all data has to be shifted to a EU country for UK companies and the police can't search certain databases they still have access to. Once fishing and electric grid comes around again (and I'm sure the Daily mail along with Nigel will howl about how the fish should all go to UK fishermen etc.) there could be black outs required if UK is not allowed to access the EU network (it's tied with fishing negotiations intentionally).

And that's the part that's not going to stop; Brexit as s topic is not going to go away. The problems from Brexit will not stop in six months time or all be ironed out; rather they will keep coming back over and over again in various forms. The UK public may be tired of hearing about it but it will be a main line item for very many years to come; and it's unlikely to be improvement headlines either.

The thing is you can argue Brexit is only starting. Aside from the negotiations there is the economic impact which will take at minimum months if not years for the full impact to be felt in the UK. Take Ireland and the banking crash. When the banks were bailed out it suddenly didn't mean people stopped talking about it. The impact has been felt for years. A huge economic shock like Brexit is no different.

tubercolossus

Deleted User wrote: »

they're very, very far ahead when it comes to half-vaccinating their population.

Fixed that for you. They can't re-open their economy when the job is only half-done. Even Ireland is ahead of the UK on the percentage of people fully-vaccinated.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

It doesn't, but it will happen in the UK before much of Europe because they're very, very far ahead when it comes to vaccinating their population.

Not for long though. It's anticipated that there will be a massive acceleration in EU vaccinations in the next 2-3 months, so much so that some EU states think they will overtake the UK by June and will fully vaccinate their populations before them.

tubercolossus

I'm enjoying this "Britain's progress post-Brexit will be followed VERY CLOSELY by all the wavering EU states who are THIS CLOSE to upping sticks and leaving as well" narrative. If the last four years and a bit have been good for anything it's been to scare the bejeezus out of any EU state thinking about leaving. Brexit has been a highly potent argument for staying in the EU.

CelticRambler

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Brexit will fall further and further back in everyday political discourse.

The debate is more on the EU side from now on.

What debate? For the vast majority of disinterested observers in the EU, Brexit happened years ago, and they see that things have only got worse and worse for the UK at each subsequent key moment. For those with a keener interest in the project, they see that things have got worse and worse for the UK. There's no debate - we're not indoctrinated into the cult, so we can look at the facts dispassionately. So far there are none that support the idea that Brexit was, is or ever will be a good idea.

dublin49

I work for a company that imports up to half our substantial turnover from the UK.It is currently a total mess ,absolute nightmare,but the thing is ,the energy that is going into fixing /finding solutions is incredible.Business will I think find a way and after a rocky few months when we become familiar with what we don't know now I am thinking we will make Brexit work and unintentionally help the Tories,where Brexit will become a nuisance rather than a disaster.Their trade with EU will definitely fall but they can blame Covid for that for years to come.I hate the fact that Farage,Gove,Boris et all won't face a reckoning but suspect they might just get away with it.

fiveleavesleft

Think Starmer is more of a Brexiteer than Corbyn. Probably always was. He just doesn't conform to the spiv stereotype (Farage, Mogg, Francois) He'll use it if he can gain from it. If there is a big gotcha moment he will jump on it but if it just bimbles along in the background (Fisheries, niche industries etc..) he won't say a peep.