Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

Quin_Dub wrote: »

How many people have had or will have had the second done by that time though.

Their numbers are artificially high because of their 1st/2nd dose policy.

Not many. However with their 4-500k per day it'll take about a week once they start the second doses for them to be leading the full-vaccinated European table, and by a fair distance.

CelticRambler

Back in the real world, the Guardian is bravely finding and publishing Brexit-is-Bad stories. This one includes a particularly pertinent observation:

When things changed, some of our British customers were delighted for us, imagining that we would be free from EU constraints, and suddenly permitted to use lavish amounts of previously restricted materials such as jasmine, rose and carnation. But what really happened was that in 2019 the government copied and pasted the EU regulations straight into UK law. I watched official announcements about how we would all be free from EU bureaucracy , knowing that it wasn’t quite true. We have shiny new UK regulations that are exactly the same as what was there before – so what was the point?

On the one hand: great for businesses to know that the rules & regs are exactly the same as they were before Brexit. On the other: every Great New Opportunity that depends on changing those rules will represent a divergence from EU standards and risks cutting whole sections of British manufacturing off from the Single Market - most likely with a disproportionate effect on artisan producers such as the author of that piece, and equally likely to be announced with little or no warning.

embraer170

Strazdas wrote: »

Sweden and Denmark think they can vaccinate their entire population by June and that's just by using their EU allocation. This narrative of the UK 'beating' the EU out of sight in vaccinations is not going to last long at all.

I have seen the links about Sweden, but where is the info about Denmark?

Strazdas

embraer170 wrote: »

I have seen the links about Sweden, but where is the info about Denmark?

Here you go, from an article in the Danish press. They think they can fully vaccinate everyone over age 16 by June 27th :

https://twitter.com/m_reippuert/status/1362159692416512000

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

UK are currently over 16 million. At their current rate (lower end) of 400k per day for the next 40 days that'll be another 16 million (nice lining up of figures there ) so the UK (at the lower end of their current rate) are on pace to be at 32 million by the end of March while we'll be at 1.25 million. We're "on track" to do 80k this week while they'll do 3 or 4 million.
By the time we really start speeding up they'll be winding their down.

The only ones even seeing this as a "race" though are the English Brexiteers (surprise, surprise). I don't think anyone outside the UK even remotely cares what their (UK) numbers are or whether their own country is behind or in front of them.

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

The only ones even seeing this as a "race" though are the English Brexiteers (surprise, surprise). I don't think anyone outside the UK even remotely cares what their (UK) numbers are or whether their own country is behind or in front of them.

Did you read through the thread and how it came up?
"Why would sterling strengthen?"
"Maybe they'll have a post-covid bounce"
"Sure everyone will have that"
"Yes but they'll get there first"
"It's not a race".

When you can't get the right answer just change the question.

Christ guys, seriously I've followed whatever number of threads it's been at this point. Some laughs, some despair at the Brits, some just incredulity. But the world isn't all one way and you can pretend otherwise all you want but they got the jump on the vaccination stuff. Why tie yourself in knots to try to deny the very, very obvious?

tubercolossus

Deleted User wrote: »

Why tie yourself in knots to try to deny the very, very obvious?

No-one is doing that, though. They are just disputing that the UK being ahead in 1st dose vaxxing is as important as you seem to think it is, or that it'll have the effect or be as significant as you think it will.

Leroy42

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Did you read through the thread and how it came up?
"Why would sterling strengthen?"
"Maybe they'll have a post-covid bounce"
"Sure everyone will have that"
"Yes but they'll get there first"
"It's not a race".

When you can't get the right answer just change the question.

Christ guys, seriously I've followed whatever number of threads it's been at this point. Some laughs, some despair at the Brits, some just incredulity. But the world isn't all one way and you can pretend otherwise all you want but they got the jump on the vaccination stuff. Why tie yourself in knots to try to deny the very, very obvious?

The point is the most people are worried about themselves and their country, it is only UK that seem to have this need to make it a Us v Them race.

Which is funny, because they continued to tell everyone that international comparisons were meaningless.

The main point of many is not that the UK got a head start, but that head start proves UK is the best and proof that Brexit was right.

And they are using that fallacy to hide the other brexit realities.

The fact is that, fingers crossed, these vaccines work and eventually we all get vaccinated. The difference in opening up will be measured in weeks, and will soon be irrelevant.

The brexit issues are going to drag on and on for many years

Sam Russell

Strazdas wrote: »

Here you go, from an article in the Danish press. They think they can fully vaccinate everyone over age 16 by June 27th :

https://twitter.com/m_reippuert/status/1362159692416512000

If supply is the only issue, then we should also be able to do the same. If that happens, there can be little difference with the UK programme, and the EU programme.

Of course not every EU member state will achieve that timetable. Hopefully we can and we will do so.

Strazdas

Sam Russell wrote: »

If supply is the only issue, then we should also be able to do the same. If that happens, there can be little difference with the UK programme, and the EU programme.

Of course not every EU member state will achieve that timetable. Hopefully we can and we will do so.

Yes, it will be very interesting to see how this pans out in the next four months. Clearly EU countries will vaccinate at somewhat different paces (for all sorts of different reasons) but there is no reason not to aim high at least.

embraer170

Strazdas wrote: »

Here you go, from an article in the Danish press. They think they can fully vaccinate everyone over age 16 by June 27th :

https://twitter.com/m_reippuert/status/1362159692416512000

Thanks

Sam Russell

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, it will be very interesting to see how this pans out in the next four months. Clearly EU countries will vaccinate at somewhat different paces (for all sorts of different reasons) but there is no reason not to aim high at least.

Basically, do you first vaccinate the most vulnerable who are going to have the worst outcome and perhaps death, or do you vaccinate those most likely to catch it like front-line workers? The first cuts deaths, the second cuts cases and eases the strain on the health services.

That is a political question and each state must make that choice. We have chosen to do a split between the two.

Leroy42

Leroy42 wrote: »

The point is the most people are worried about themselves and their country, it is only UK that seem to have this need to make it a Us v Them race.

Which is funny, because they continued to tell everyone that international comparisons were meaningless.

The main point of many is not that the UK got a head start, but that head start proves UK is the best and proof that Brexit was right.

And they are using that fallacy to hide the other brexit realities.

The fact is that, fingers crossed, these vaccines work and eventually we all get vaccinated. The difference in opening up will be measured in weeks, and will soon be irrelevant.

The brexit issues are going to drag on and on for many years

No, you're doing it again. The question was why would Sterling strengthen. That's why the vaccines came up. It's not about the intricacies of how the fishermen are getting ****ed up by their own government. It's not about the small-scale beauty product sellers having their businesses destroyed.
And if there's a 6 week difference that's what, 12% of a year that a country gets a headstart on their economic recovery? It's a pretty huge deal.
It was a single question. Read through the forums if you like, at no point have I said "Cor blimey guvnor, the Brits are the best innit blud?". I have stated something blindingly obvious yet am being argued with as if I'm a cheerleader for Britain first or something.

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

And if there's a 6 week difference that's what, 12% of a year that a country gets a headstart on their economic recovery? It's a pretty huge deal.

A headstart compared to who, though? When a country has reconfigured its economy to be hugely dependent on services, when others have maintained their manufacturing and agriculture sectors, and then that country decided to sign away their access for services to their biggest export customer, then you're looking at 12% of nothing.

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No, you're doing it again. The question was why would Sterling strengthen. That's why the vaccines came up. It's not about the intricacies of how the fishermen are getting ****ed up by their own government. It's not about the small-scale beauty product sellers having their businesses destroyed.
And if there's a 6 week difference that's what, 12% of a year that a country gets a headstart on their economic recovery? It's a pretty huge deal.
It was a single question. Read through the forums if you like, at no point have I said "Cor blimey guvnor, the Brits are the best innit blud?". I have stated something blindingly obvious yet am being argued with as if I'm a cheerleader for Britain first or something.

You've stated no blindingly obvious thing though.

There is no start date for this supposed recovery. There are literally no facts behind it.

There's market manipulation at play and people are making assumptions that there will a bounce at some as of yet unannounced date.

So erm yeah...

Strazdas

Sam Russell wrote: »

Basically, do you first vaccinate the most vulnerable who are going to have the worst outcome and perhaps death, or do you vaccinate those most likely to catch it like front-line workers? The first cuts deaths, the second cuts cases and eases the strain on the health services.

That is a political question and each state must make that choice. We have chosen to do a split between the two.

Watching the press briefing tonight and Dr Colm Henry thinks protecting old people has to be the absolute priority i.e. give them your strongest vaccines over everyone else. Vaccinating younger and healthier people is less of a hard priority he feels.

Sam Russell

Strazdas wrote: »

Watching the press briefing tonight and Dr Colm Henry thinks protecting old people has to be the absolute priority i.e. give them your strongest vaccines over everyone else. Vaccinating younger and healthier people is less of a hard priority he feels.

That is a political view, but worthy nevertheless.

About 500,000 people in Ireland are over 70 - that is 10% of the population.

That is an astonishing figure (for me) and everyone must be given the best treatment that can be given. However, by treating the frontline workers first, then the workers in hospital do not get infected and community transmission will be reduced and so the chances of those vulnerable candidates being infected is reduced. Public Health is a discipline that answers these questions.

When the health care workers and the over 70s are done, then the others are treated.

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

If supply is the only issue, then we should also be able to do the same.

There's other vaccines in the pipeline. In production, in warehouses, just waiting approval.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0218/1197908-europe-vaccines/

Ireland's EU Commissioner Mairead McGuinness has said the Commission is hopeful that the Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine will be approved, and that 200 million doses have been ordered for EU states, meaning Ireland should receive 2.2 million doses.

reslfj

Strazdas wrote: »

Here you go, from an article in the Danish press. They think they can fully vaccinate everyone over age 16 by June 27th :

https://twitter.com/m_reippuert/status/1362159692416512000

This is not the covid thread, but as Denmark is my country, I will answer.

The 500.000+ doses from April (week 14) are per week. The number of doses listed from April and forward is a qualified estimate, but only an estimate (the expected # of doses received in DK).

Denmark will get its fair share of the EU doses (about 1% of all EU doses). The AZ vaccine is restricted in Denmark to the age group 16-64 without serious health problems. From week 7 the AZ vaccine will be offered to front line medical staff and social workers who do not qualify for the better mRNA vaccines.

The Johnson & Johnson 1 shot vaccine is already criticized for its rather week efficacy (72% in United States, 66% in Latin America, 57% in South Africa). Some talk about waiting for the results of the 2 shot phase III test now under way by Johnson & Johnson.

Lars

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

joeysoap

Isreal is one of the world leaders in vaccination. An Israeli spokesperson said last night on QT that the virus fell off a cliff after the 2nd dose was administered. And Israel was vaccinating as per the company instructions ie 3/4 weeks apart.

NeuralNetwork

The major issues we might be facing are variants. I don’t think the vaccine supply in the EU is anything other than the initial ramping up process.

Fingers crossed we do get this rolling very fast. With a bit of luck we could find this vaccination process rolls very rapidly.

We’ve a combination of mass vaccination centres, GPs, pharmacies etc etc so it could potentially move fast.

I mean think of it this way, on a typical day 80,000 people move through Dublin Airport and they go though far more complex things than a vaccine in the arm - luggage checks, tickets, boarding procedures, security, browsing shops, buying food...

In comparison a mass vaccination centre is a doddle and if supported by good IT for booking, it will run very smoothly.

In, jab, out ...

I’ve had flu shots done here and all in all they took minutes. This shouldn’t be any different.

Peregrinus

Sam Russell wrote: »

Basically, do you first vaccinate the most vulnerable who are going to have the worst outcome and perhaps death, or do you vaccinate those most likely to catch it like front-line workers? The first cuts deaths, the second cuts cases and eases the strain on the health services.

That is a political question and each state must make that choice. We have chosen to do a split between the two.

The issue with frontline health and care workers is not just that they are more likely to acquire CV19 but also - and perhaps even more - that they are more likely to pass it on to others. In particular, they present a high risk of transmission to elderly and medically vulnerable people, because those people tend to spend more time with, and see a wider range of, health and care workers than younger and healthier people do.

So you can't reduce this to a straight trade-off — frontline workers versus the vulnerable and elderly. Not vaccinating frontline workers increases risk for the vulnerable and elderly.

I don't think you can deal with this by arguing that the vulnerable and elderly won't be at risk once vaccinated themselves. The vaccine doesn't work perfectly - no vaccine does - plus, for one reason or another, not all of the vulnerable elderly will be vaccinated. (E.g. some may have medical conditions which are inconsistent with vaccination.)

schmoo2k

SNIP. Don't dump images here please.

Jizique

well, according to the London times, Frost plans to be more robust than Gove on Northern Ireland.
This tallies with what the FT is also reporting.

Peregrinus

Farage was not the only UK MEP on the PECH Committee at the time. Others included Jim Allister (elected as a DUP MP, but by 2008 had defected to TUV), Ian Hudghton of the SNP, Struan Stevenson of the Scottish Tories, Catherine Stihler of Scottish Labour, Chris Davies of the Liberal Democrats, Neil Parish of the Tories and our old friend Dan Hannan, also of the Tories. Several of them, obviously, subsequently supported Brexit and, in charity to them, we must assume that none of were bright enough to learn enough from their committee service to understand how EU rules on fish imports would apply to the UK if it chose to subject itself to those rules.

There was also Tom Wise of UKIP but, to be fair to him, by 2008 he might have had his eye off the ball as regards PECH committee business, because he was facing fraud charges over his MEP expenses claims — charges on which he was convicted the following year, and for which he served two years in prison.

Enzokk

Jizique wrote: »

well, according to the London times, Frost plans to be more robust than Gove on Northern Ireland.
This tallies with what the FT is also reporting.

Sure, he will be robust at the start and will fold just like he did in the negotiations. All he did was postpone the deal to rush it through because if the UK had time to read the deal and had time to make alternative arrangements it would not have made it through.

Funny that one of the reasons to leave the EU was to get away from the unelected bureaucrats, yet Frost has managed to wrangle himself into cabinet as an unelected bureaucrat. This Tory party really is one of the worst out there. Contracts for the boys and jobs for friends is no stranger to them. To think Cummings was railing against all of this with his blogs, yet he allowed this to happen by making Brexit happen. Could have been the plan all along? I think it is more of a case that he was railing against this elite until he became one of them. He now probably likes what he saw and knowingly allowed all of this to happen because it made him feel special. Power is a dangerous thing in the wrong hands.

ArmaniJeanss

Quite interesting that 'Frost will be tougher than Gove' is the angle that the papers are going with/being fed. It's putting the idea out there that Gove has been weak in some way, a disappointment even.
Up to a week ago Gove had generally been labelled in Tory circles as the tough one, the one that the EU respected, even feared.
It has the hint of party games, leadership moves and bases being solidified.

Zubeneschamali

Yes, this tough talk is just more internal Tory politics, the EU know Frost and are not intimidated.

Still, it's a good thing that they have appointed a senior person at at the Cabinet Office, it is an acknowledgement that far from being Done, Brexit negotiations will be on the Cabinet agenda forever.

Zubeneschamali

As for Frost being unelected, in 1981 the Taoiseach nominated James Dooge to the Senate and then made him a full Minister in his Government, so we have similar dodges on the books.

Leroy42

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Quite interesting that 'Frost will be tougher than Gove' is the angle that the papers are going with/being fed. It's putting the idea out there that Gove has been weak in some way, a disappointment even.
Up to a week ago Gove had generally been labelled in Tory circles as the tough one, the one that the EU respected, even feared.
It has the hint of party games, leadership moves and bases being solidified.

It said, not as a slight to Gove, but to make it look like all the problems are just a fist slam on the desk from being solved.

Its painting the problems as being the fault of the EU rather than inherent in the deal itself.