Snow watch until Sunday 24th (N,W,SW most at risk)

Nqp15hhu

Also people on netweather are widely wrong with their snow amounts. One person posts a skiff and says “a couple of centimetres here”, no!

A couple of cm’s would be up to your shoe!

pad199207

-2c in Kildare and frosty but nowhere near as white as the 0c low yesterday. Funny how it works.

Gaoth Laidir

I'm looking forward to seeing how much precip that pivoting trough will produce down through Leinster tomorrow afternoon, as soundings are showing it to be producing snow inland, even during daylight hours. Along the immediate coast it's more questionable with an onshore flow. Coastal convergence from this same flow could pep up precipitation intensity, so it'll be an interesting nowcast. Most places should see at least a covering overnight, with more in Leinster tomorrow.

The chart at midnight showed the system still a shallow trough out to our west but at 6 am it was already forming a frontal system. It should deepen only slightly as its centre crosses the south overnight, with that trough pivoting back southwards tomorrow.

ECM simulated radar from 6pm this evening. (EDIT: Updated link to show radar reflectivity)

https://meteologix.com/ie/model-charts/euro/ireland/base-reflectivity/20210123-1800z.html

Gaoth Laidir

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Also people on netweather are widely wrong with their snow amounts. One person posts a skiff and says “a couple of centimetres here”, no!

A couple of cm’s would be up to your shoe!

A lot of people can be very flathúlach with their snow reports, claiming several cms when the photo they post as proof shows a few mm.

DOCARCH

DOCARCH wrote: »

Not sure I will be getting the sledge out of the attic...just yet!

I think any onshore flow will mean rain in a marine layer yes
This episode is depending on home grown cooling of the weak enough cold airmass over us
I guess we'll know tomorrow

Pretzill

A light dusting here - everything is all white again.

South Sligo
90m asl

Nqp15hhu

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

A lot of people can be very flathúlach with their snow reports, claiming several cms when the photo they post as proof shows a few mm.

Yes.. I always go by the grass and the height reached on my shoe/leg

ffarrell7

I imagine inland areas of Dublin, Meath and Kildare, Wicklow should do well although it looks very marginal for the south and south west..

Cork City will probably be sleet although areas inland in Cork should get some snow.

If the onshore wind increases in the east it will be more sleet here too rather than snow....

Billcarson

pad199207 wrote: »

-2c in Kildare and frosty but nowhere near as white as the 0c low yesterday. Funny how it works.

Less humidity perhaps?

pad199207

Billcarson wrote: »

Less humidity perhaps?

Humidity was pretty much the same. Last night though wasn’t as clear for long so temperatures didn’t really fall off till about 3am

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

A lot of people can be very flathúlach with their snow reports, claiming several cms when the photo they post as proof shows a few mm.

Sea. Need a few rulers alright.

Pangea

Wow a very decent snowfall here, must say I wasn't expecting anything, Can't remember last time , and I didn't get a flake in the beast from the east.

pad199207

While arome seems to be an improvement, the Arpege shows how much of an onshore can affect greater Dublin

Speak Now

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Yes.. I always go by the grass and the height reached on my shoe/leg

Never go by the grass, you will overstate it.

Pintman Paddy Losty

Good dump of snow here in north county dublin. I reckon 5 or 6cm. Hopefully more tonight.

meath4sam

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Good dump of snow here in north county dublin. I reckon 5 or 6cm. Hopefully more tonight.

Where nothing in south meath

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

A lot of people can be very flathúlach with their snow reports, claiming several cms when the photo they post as proof shows a few mm.

Sea. Need a few rulers alright.

Gaoth Laidir

An example of a sounding for around Navan at 11Z tomorrow (ECM). Shallow cloudiness and a dissipating trend means that precipitation would be light but subzero all the way means snow. Heavier precipitation would appear to be favoured in northern Leinster and southeastern Ulster, but again, onshore flow could tip the balance the wrong way along the coast.

It has to be said that some other models are not showing the same precipitation locations, but for once the ECM and GFS are pretty much the same. It all remains to be seen what pans out in the end.

pad199207

meath4sam wrote: »

Where nothing in south meath

Pintman has had way too many pints

Mount Vesuvius

AROME accumulations tomorrow morning



Then it explodes during Sunday for South East

Oneiric 3

About 5 inches of frost here this morning.

Gaoth Laidir

If you're missing that ruler, use a coin to measure snow depth. A €2 or 50c coin are both around 2.5 cm (1 inch). Stick in in and see how far up the snow reaches. Don't do it straight out of your pocket, though, as the snow will instantly melt with the heat of the coin.

Diameters:
€2 - 25.75 mm
50c - 25.25 mm
€1 - 23.25 mm
20c - 22.25 mm

Gaoth Laidir

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

About 5 inches of frost here this morning.

It's knee-height* here.








*refers to an ant

Oneiric 3

pad199207 wrote: »

Humidity was pretty much the same. Last night though wasn’t as clear for long so temperatures didn’t really fall off till about 3am

More cloud = less dew forming=less white frost.

Looking at the temp trend for here overnight, and it was up and down like yo yo. No doubt due to passing cloud banks, which has been the norm this winter.

pad199207

GFS has it very much fractured as it reaches Leinster by morning. Still enough maybe for some dustings in places.

Mount Vesuvius

And then HARMONIE shows very little. Nowcast is right. Precipitation does look very little on this model so hope it's wrong.



By Sunday night

pad199207

pad199207 wrote: »

GFS has it very much fractured as it reaches Leinster by morning. Still enough maybe for some dustings in places.

What's the wind direction during that?

pad199207

AuntySnow wrote: »

What's the wind direction during that?

Southerly ahead of it. Switching to the NE as it passes through. Variable you could say.

Oneiric 3

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

And then HARMONIE shows very little. Nowcast is right. Precipitation does look very little on this model so hope it's wrong.
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To be honest, I'd stick with the main global runs with regards this feature as sometimes their lower resolution output can actually be more useful for general guidance.

Scubadevils

I don't expect anything out of this really in North County Dublin, might be lucky but certainly looks marginal. All eyes on Feb though - if I recall correctly, MTs original winter forecast called for cold weather later in winter? I must say, in all my years hunting for snow and following Boards, Netweather and TWO, this has been the biggest/longest rollercoaster - the amount of times I've said feck this, not looking only to dip back in and see it on the up again!

Worst case scenario and nothing more happens, it has certainly been a lot better than most winters - at this stage, even a decent frost and sub zero temps are very well received. Beautiful morning here, -1 with lots of frost and the sun shining, perfect dog walking weather :cool: