Snow watch until Sunday 24th (N,W,SW most at risk)

sparrowcar

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It's actually light snow (-SN) with a slight chance of moderate (SN), but who cares, it's snow.

TAF EIDW 231100Z 2312/2412 27010KT 9999 FEW018
BECMG 2316/2318 24005KT
BECMG 2320/2322 VRB03KT
TEMPO 2400/2405 3000 -SN BKN007
PROB30 TEMPO 2400/2405 1800 SN BKN004 SCT017CB
BECMG 2403/2405 15007KT
TEMPO 2405/2412 4000 -SHRA BKN007 SCT017CB
PROB30 TEMPO 2405/2410 2000 -SHRASN BKN004
BECMG 2406/2408 08005KT
BECMG 2408/2410 05013KT=

Shhhh now, don't let the truth get in the way

Chooooo Choooo

redsteveireland

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

About 5 inches of frost here this morning.

Hadn't moved the 2nd car since last Saturday, only one side of it gets sun at this time of year so the drivers door was frozen shut this morning. Roads were very dry and relatively frost/ice free. I'm sure the council knew that was going to be the case so they spared the grit for tonight :rolleyes:

Theres actually a beautiful park and walks on this mountain

https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1352948162005233664?s=19

Gaoth Laidir

The UKMO aviation chart for 18Z has a line from Belmullet - Galway city - Limerick - Cork city, moving ENE at 5 knots (10 kph). Just west of this line they forecast

Occasional rain
Isolated sleet showers / thunderstorms
Isolated moderate snow, with heavy snow showers on mountains (above 700 ft).

East of this line (the rest of Ireland Wales and SW England) they give

Isolated rain showers on coasts
Isolated moderate snow showers on mountains
Isolated freezing fog on land from 19Z


GAMET description

Zone 2
SW OF A LINE CORK TO N5000 W00800 TO N4900 W00700, MOV NE AT 5KT IN THE N,
AND MOV E AT 15KT IN THE S.
GEN 25KM, WITH 5-7/8CUSC 2500FT/8000.
OCNL, 7KM IN RA OR SHRA, WITH 2-5/8ST 900FT/1500 AND 7/8CUAC 2000FT/12000.
ISOL, 2500M IN HVY SHRASN OR HVY TSRAGS, WITH 4-7/8ST 500FT/1500 AND
8/8CUAC 2000FT/12000 AND EMBD CB 1500FT/18000.
ISOL, 800M IN SN, WITH 4-6/8ST 400-700FT/1500 AND 7/8CUAC 2000FT/12000.
WRNG: HILL FG. MOD ICE AND MOD TURB IN CLD. TS. SEV ICE AND SEV TURB IN
CB. SN MON ABV 700FT.

Meteorite58

Section of the Slieve Mish Mts this morning here in Kerry. Good hard frost getting down to -1.9C, bright sunny morning. Higher cloud moving in now.

Well, we will see where gets the snow from early evening into tomorrow. Very cold so could have lying snow into Monday in places.

Chart below from AROME is for total predicted amounts and doesn't take into account what melts.

WRF not a bad chart close to the event.

will see what the ECM shows from the 06Z later.

redsteveireland

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The UKMO aviation chart for 18Z has a line from Belmullet - Galway city - Limerick - Cork city, moving ENE at 5 knots (10 kph). Just west of this line they forecast




East of this line (the rest of Ireland Wales and SW England) they give

Isolated rain showers on coasts
Isolated moderate snow showers on mountains
Isolated freezing fog on land from 19Z


GAMET description

Thundersnow lets be having you!

Humberto Salazar

I find the weather Channel app with its hourly forecasts usually fairly accurate. It got the last snowfall on the 7th pretty much correct, 2.5cm fell over about three hours, of course it was onto frozen ground, and sub zero temperatures, so it all stuck. Good to see a couple of decent frosts the past two nights after all the rain last week. This has sponged away some of the excess moisture at least so it should be set up for a repeat of the 7th event.

typhoony

My location i would still class as coastal, but it's amazing what a difference 10 miles and an extra 100ft elevation cam make, there's a very specific location approx 5 miles from Loughrea which is the boundary between sleet and snow

Mr Bumble

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Enjoy the snow, a lot of us will see a bit. It's not the 10cm+ falls that I rate as true snowfall at low level but in these warming times, as good as we can get I believe. We'll get the odd one in 50 year event, like 2018. Or a one on 30 like Dec 2000. Snow is a rarity here so it's understandable we like to follow it.

We've had three then, by your reckoning, in the last 20 years - 2000, 2010, 2018. I'd add in 2009, so maybe 4.

You argued yourself to a standstill there Humberto.

Slashermcguirk

Remember there was plenty of snow and deep cold in January 2010 as well, we always remember the epic snow and cold of November and December 2010 but early 2010 saw plenty of snow and deep cold too

Mr Bumble wrote: »

We've had three then, by your reckoning, in the last 20 years - 2000, 2010, 2018. I'd add in 2009, so maybe 4.

You argued yourself to a standstill there Humberto.

Goldfinch8

No overnight snow in my own location just east of Castlebar but the dawn sky and the hard frost this morning was more than a consolation. The colours ahead of the sunrise earlier today made this my favourite morning of the winter so far.
Now fingers crossed that tonight's front produces some goods!

Slashermcguirk

Met Éireann on their website giving snow for Dublin and the east tonight and tomorrow, bring it on

Humberto Salazar

Mr Bumble wrote: »

We've had three then, by your reckoning, in the last 20 years - 2000, 2010, 2018. I'd add in 2009, so maybe 4.

You argued yourself to a standstill there Humberto.

2010,we had hardly any snow in Offaly. The snow fell at the very start of the severe spell and stayed on the ground for 3 weeks. It was the freezing temperatures that made headlines. As a snow event, for the midlands, nothing really. Same with 09. My points, in general, stand up.

Tyrone212

https://mobile.twitter.com/DonegalWeatherC/status/1352929290283864064

Redcastle

Slashermcguirk

Yeah maybe if you are talking about Offaly, but what about the rest of the country?

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

2010,we had hardly any snow in Offaly. The snow fell at the very start of the severe spell and stayed on the ground for 3 weeks. It was the freezing temperatures that made headlines. As a snow event, for the midlands, nothing really. Same with 09. My points, in general, stand up.

bazlers

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Yeah maybe if you are talking about Offaly, but what about the rest of the country?

Yea id say he is west offaly

Rebelbrowser

ffarrell7 wrote: »

....I don't see much snow accumulating in the South or South west near the coasts though..

I will grant you one thing, you are consistent, you've been posting the same about most potential snow events for 10+ years!

Hopefully Dublin does as well as you hope. It should do I think.

Quite fancy our chances down here too. Since the Cork snow shield ( 25 December 2004 - 10 Jan 2010) died we have actually done well on most national events save for the real westerly rain to snow events. There is more embedded cold this time though (my garden is still pretty icy) and most of Cork city suburbia is at a height so better than 50/50 for a light covering overnight methinks.....

pad199207

Arriving onto the west coast now.

Gaoth Laidir

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It's actually light snow (-SN) with a slight chance of moderate (SN), but who cares, it's snow.

TAF EIDW 231100Z 2312/2412 27010KT 9999 FEW018
BECMG 2316/2318 24005KT
BECMG 2320/2322 VRB03KT
TEMPO 2400/2405 3000 -SN BKN007
PROB30 TEMPO 2400/2405 1800 SN BKN004 SCT017CB
BECMG 2403/2405 15007KT
TEMPO 2405/2412 4000 -SHRA BKN007 SCT017CB
PROB30 TEMPO 2405/2410 2000 -SHRASN BKN004
BECMG 2406/2408 08005KT
BECMG 2408/2410 05013KT=

Isn't it the case though that those never go beyond prob 40 because prob 50 and beyond is seen as the more than likely weather
Ergo prob 30 when seen in a Taff's is a significant enough probability

#askingforaramper

KingJeremy

Goldfinch8 wrote: »

No overnight snow in my own location just east of Castlebar but the dawn sky and the hard frost this morning was more than a consolation. The colours ahead of the sunrise earlier today made this my favourite morning of the winter so far.
Now fingers crossed that tonight's front produces some goods! quote]

Beautiful pics goldfinch

bazlers

The title might need a bit of an update. Possibly midlands and alot of leinster will be and considerable risk too.

Humberto Salazar

bazlers wrote: »

Yea id say he is west offaly

Correct. Anyway we're off topic but the master of snow stats is Sryan, he will know the odds for big snow events and how 2009 and 10 fared countrywide in comparison.

ongarboy

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

2010,we had hardly any snow in Offaly. The snow fell at the very start of the severe spell and stayed on the ground for 3 weeks. It was the freezing temperatures that made headlines. As a snow event, for the midlands, nothing really. Same with 09. My points, in general, stand up.

Ok but the vast majority of Ireland had snow of epic proportions throughout December 2010 and that event will live long in people's memories(particularly memorable as it coincided with mass travel disruption prior to Christmas and of course the longevity of lying snow for weeks on end, many places including urban sea level Dublin had up to 30 cms or more of it). Writing it off as a non event in Ireland's history of snow events just because Offaly happened to miss out on it is fairly disingenuous.

Slashermcguirk

42cm of snow in the garden of our house in Dublin on Christmas morning in 2010

ongarboy wrote: »

Ok but the vast majority of Ireland had snow of epic proportions throughout December 2010 and that event will live long in people's memories(particularly memorable as it coincided with mass travel disruption prior to Christmas and of course the longevity of lying snow for weeks on end, many places including urban sea level Dublin had up to 30 cms or more of it). Writing it off as a non event in Ireland's history of snow events just because Offaly happened to miss out on it is fairly disingenuous.

Supercell

Not expecting much here by the coast, inland areas of Dublin - Tallaght etc should do well as usual if we get much precip, hopefully we all wake to a winter wonderland though

Supercell

Tyrone212 wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/DonegalWeatherC/status/1352929290283864064


Redcastle

Gorgeous, just gorgeous!

nacho libre

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Correct. Anyway we're off topic but the master of snow stats is Sryan, he will know the odds for big snow events and how 2009 and 10 fared countrywide in comparison.

If i recall correctly, during December 2010 nearly all of Ireland was covered in snow at one stage, except for parts of Clare.

PokeHerKing

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

2010,we had hardly any snow in Offaly. The snow fell at the very start of the severe spell and stayed on the ground for 3 weeks. It was the freezing temperatures that made headlines. As a snow event, for the midlands, nothing really. Same with 09. My points, in general, stand up.

No your points in no way stand up. The entire island was under siberian levels of cold for months in 2009/10. Just because your backgarden didn't get snow is irrelevant. We average a country wide snow event every decade I would say. Some more epic than others.

ongarboy

nacho libre wrote: »

If i recall correctly, during December 2010 nearly all of Ireland was covered in snow at one stage, except for parts of Clare.

https://images.app.goo.gl/t2jMmbg5vbvwH5Xu6

This satellite image was taken sometime in Dec 2010. Waterford and some of coastal Cork also seemed to miss out. Anyway apologies for steering thread off topic but Dec 2010 was my all time favorite snow event (Even more so than Emma). I got to enjoy it both in Dublin and then my home county of Kerry for the run up to Christmas which made it magical!

Oneiric 3

BBC weather forecast shows that circulating band of snow in no hurry to leave the east coast tomorrow morning:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vlmp_atQ9o8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vlmp_atQ9o8

The presenter also has a 70s thing going on.