Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

walus

walus wrote: »

It is quite simple really. It is a part of all this lockdown-until-vaccine franchise/deal that the government signed up to. Those who have come up with that strategy and sold it to a number of government across the world (mainly western world btw) have planned to benefit from the effects of economic shutdown. The wealth transfer up the ladder will accelerate dramatically in these next couple of years. This process has started already. Corporations started hoovering up smaller businesses already. It is a great deal if you can get them cheap with money at almost negative interest rate, and long terms debt maturity.

Since 1980s middle class participation in the job market in Ireland has fallen from 60% to about 40% prior to covid. These jobs are just going away and this 'pandemic' will push it even further. The need for improvement in productivity post-covid will be so high that it will be only possible to achieve with AI and automation not only in production/manufacturing but also in all other sectors where mundane work is now performed by a human (i.e. office, accounting etc.)

I'm totally staggered to watch this government play into the hands of corporations, bankers and pharma. They clearly don't understand what they have subscribed us to. Looking at the data and risk associated with retail, hairdressers, hotels I cannot see justification for slaughtering the middle class.

There is a conspiracy forum

uli84

All I can say to comment on all that is I’m jealous of those young enough who can allow having 1-2 years of their lives thrown into the bin. For someone like me for whom every day is extremely valuable at this stage it’s a disaster seeing them gone to waste just like that.

Shadow Dancer

bloopy wrote: »

Wasn't this a 'conspiracy theory' just a few weeks ago?
Even the Journal did a 'debunked' piece on it.

That website is such a shameful piece of horse manure. If it were a newspaper, I wouldn't use it to light a fire

walus

Don't Chute! wrote: »

Tomas Ryan on Newstalk this morning saying the lockdown isn’t working so wants more restrictions. He wants a 2km travel restriction now. Also said we need to get down to 10 cases per day before we can start lifting these restrictions! All said from the comfort of his home with his nice salary still rolling in.

He should really stick to what he knows. He is an expert in brain memory, and i sincerely hope that when all this is finished he remembers well ale the BS he said. If the 5km in unenforceable, how 2km will be? If he thinks they can reduce significantly the spread of the virus by hammering people with more restrictions, he needs to have his head checked.

Newuser2

walus wrote: »

He should really stick to what he knows. He is an expert in brain memory, and i sincerely hope that when all this is finished he remembers well ale the BS he said. If the 5km in unenforceable, how 2km will be? If he thinks they can reduce significantly the spread of the virus by hammering people with more restrictions, he needs to have his head checked.

What difference would that make

Wouldn't it be worse than 5K because it will be crowding people

walus

Newuser2 wrote: »

What difference would that make

Wouldn't it be worse than 5K because it will be crowding people

Looking outside, it does not seem like people care. They are getting on with their lives. I'm not sure if he understands human nature enough to know that sometimes more gets you less.

end of the road

end of the road wrote: »

it's not behaving like a flue virus, it spreads harder and quicker then flue, even when controlled

Since 1: A good number of flu vaccines are given out every year, and 2: We do not test healthy or even mildly ill people for flu (which is considered in any case to be up to 50% asymptomatic), it is impossible for you to make this assertion with any sort of confidence.

pjohnson

walus wrote: »

Looking outside, it does not seem like people care. They are getting on with their lives. I'm not sure if he understands human nature enough to know that sometimes more gets you less.

Yep. People getting on with their lives gets less relaxation of restrictions for those responsible.

VonLuck

Don't Chute! wrote: »

Tomas Ryan on Newstalk this morning saying the lockdown isn’t working so wants more restrictions. He wants a 2km travel restriction now. Also said we need to get down to 10 cases per day before we can start lifting these restrictions! All said from the comfort of his home with his nice salary still rolling in.

I hear this argument all the time and still don't understand it. You're basically saying that for anyone to make a decision they have to be affected by the outcome, is that right? It's like saying the minister for health has to have cancer to make decisions on radiology funding.

FintanMcluskey

VonLuck wrote: »

I hear this argument all the time and still don't understand it. You're basically saying that for anyone to make a decision they have to be affected by the outcome, is that right? It's like saying the minister for health has to have cancer to make decisions on radiology funding.

Not really, it’s similar to the minister for health banning meat because they are vegan.

The lower middle income workers will be crippled with these measures and the austerity in future

pjohnson

pjohnson wrote: »

Yep. People getting on with their lives gets less relaxation of restrictions.

The L5 restrictions went into place on December 26th, the disease has a 4-5 day mean incubation period, and our "peak" day of this current surge came on January 10th (15 days post-lockdown). It is not clear that the surge was mainly caused by Christmas gathering, particularly considering the infiltration and spread (previously played down by NPHET but now acknowledged) of the much more transmissible UK variant.

It seems more likely that we're seeing the (expected) evolutionary course of a virus, possibly expedited by lockdowns and our efforts at containment, of increased transmissibility (and hopefully, with time, reduced virility). Which is something to be tentatively hopeful about, awful as the intervening destruction may be.

walus

pjohnson wrote: »

Yep. People getting on with their lives gets less relaxation of restrictions for those responsible.

Correct. Especially with a paternalistic government.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

The L5 restrictions went into place on December 26th, the disease has a 4-5 day mean incubation period, and our "peak" day of this current surge came on January 10th (15 days post-lockdown). It is not clear that the surge was mainly caused by Christmas gathering, particularly considering the infiltration and spread (previously played down by NPHET but now acknowledged) of the much more transmissible UK variant.

It seems more likely that we're seeing the (expected) evolutionary course of a virus, possibly expedited by lockdowns and our efforts at containment, of increased transmissibility (and hopefully, with time, reduced virility). Which is something to be tentatively hopeful about, awful as the intervening destruction may be.

Peak positive tests was 6th of January. You may have heard about the issue with processing these results. This is what caused the apparent peak to be a few days after. Those who were recorded positive on the 6th were tests processed on the 5th, from people tested on the 4th/5th and referred from the 2nd to the 4th. Take 5-7 days of that and you have the 26th to the 30th.

CalamariFritti

Don't Chute! wrote: »

Tomas Ryan on Newstalk this morning saying the lockdown isn’t working so wants more restrictions. He wants a 2km travel restriction now. Also said we need to get down to 10 cases per day before we can start lifting these restrictions! All said from the comfort of his home with his nice salary still rolling in.

Ten cases a day thats 70 per week divide by 50. So he wants a 7 day incidence per 100,000 of just over 1. So he wants zero covid basically?

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

You may have heard about the issue with processing these results.

I hadn't. Thank you.

Where can I find the information that the peak positive testing day was January 6th?

And do you have a source for 5-7 days incubation? I've seen a few "4-5 days mean" in different studies. Or is this you accounting for the time it takes people to get concerned enough to see a doctor?

What sort of impact do you think can be attributed to the UK variant, if any, and how do we uncouple that from the Christmas gathering?

And if Christmas gathering is more responsible for the spread than the UK variant, does that make it less likely that the same will happen again if restrictions are lifted, given that we won't have the same level of gathering outside of the holiday season?

Kunta Kinte

Tandey wrote: »

Will the hotels be open for valentines weekend? Asking for a friend?

As far as the general public are concerned not a chance.

Don't Chute!

Don't Chute! wrote: »

Tomas Ryan on Newstalk this morning saying the lockdown isn’t working so wants more restrictions. He wants a 2km travel restriction now. Also said we need to get down to 10 cases per day before we can start lifting these restrictions! All said from the comfort of his home with his nice salary still rolling in.

Having a full salary is generally a key trait in the pro restrictions side.

I doubt many of the 460000 on PUP are big supporters.

It’s like Bono saying we should all give money to charity. Easy when you’re a millionaire. More difficult on an average wage with a mortgage and 2 kids in crèche.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

I hadn't. Thank you.

Where can I find the information that the peak positive testing day was January 6th?

And do you have a source for 5-7 days incubation? I've seen a few "4-5 days mean" in different studies. Or is this you accounting for the time it takes people to get concerned enough to see a doctor?

What sort of impact do you think can be attributed to the UK variant, if any, and how do we uncouple that from the Christmas gathering?

And if Christmas gathering is more responsible for the spread than the UK variant, does that make it less likely that the same will happen again if restrictions are lifted, given that we won't have the same level of gathering outside of the holiday season?

The peak is 4 to 5 days representing about 20% of infections, but 60% are 5 days or more. Most estimates for the median are at 5-7 days.

Testing data is here: https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Having a full salary is generally a key trait in the pro restrictions side.

I doubt many of the 460000 on PUP are big supporters.

It’s like Bono saying we should all give money to charity. Easy when you’re a millionaire. More difficult on an average wage with a mortgage and 2 kids in crèche.

Ye have a great habit of deciding what people are like. Is there a difficultly in accepting that the argument is not the person.

Idbatterim

Idbatterim wrote: »

............ So set back, relax and be content o the knowledgeable that they will pay the price for it!

Yeah, let's vote in SF or some other pack of lefty loons and see things improve :pac:

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

The peak is 4 to 5 days representing about 20% of infections, but 60% are 5 days or more. Most estimates for the median are at 5-7 days.

Thanks. I couldn't see this reflected in the (bookmarked!) geohive link. Where's it from?

In any case, doesn't this put the infection date from the peak at the first few days of lockdown rather than the actual period where the restrictions were lighter and people were gathering?

leahyl

Tullogher WRLD wrote: »

I was going to try and post up in this thread for a while so I here I go. I think I speak for a lot of people when I say that this Covid-19 situation is getting a bit long in the day now. We are nearly a year into our first official case (this thing has obviously been here for longer than that) and I could have never imagined we would be like this again, or maybe I didn't want to. I've followed these discussions nearly since the very beginning. I've been educated, amazed, appalled, amused, confused and enlightened by what I've seen some days. To cut to the chase can we continue with the way things are right now? Not really no. Some people think we can stay closed until this virus magically disappears. Only 3 viruses have ever been completely driven to extinction on purpose: SARS, smallpox and rinderpest. Unfortunately this thing is going to be here for quite some time yet. I'm not a Covid denier, for some reason people on here that are severely fed up with the current restrictions are labelled that way. For some insight I gave up hurling with my club last summer because I'm in regular contact with my grandparents, and to be 19 years old and that be my only social outlet it was very tough. But my grandparents are my world so I didn't mind in the end. I've no siblings (now I don't mind that really) so it's just the parents and I which can be tough at times. I'm not looking for sympathy on here I just want people to understand that the way things are at the moment can't continue. I'd sometimes think that people should just "offer it up" but that isn't a sustainable mindset. I'd be happy with non-essential shops, barbers, hairdressers, gyms etc open in February along with being restricted to your county. I'm afraid that the pubs will have to remain closed for the time being. Maybe outdoor dining when Easter arrives. Me personally I just want to be able to go hurling training again, just to see the boys.Some of ye will find some fault in what I've said and fire away. Life for me doesn't seem to be worth living at the moment, but I'll keep going. To finish, people are trying to do their best. I know I am.

Excellent post. Couldn't have said it better myself. I am 35, single and still living at home and at this stage, I have become numb to it all almost. I can't even remember what it was like to socialise, to live a normal life, not to mention the fact that I'm getting older and time is ticking away to buy my own place, meet someone, get married, have kids etc. I'm very much following the guidelines, as my parents are over 70, but it has really affected them also as they are in quite good health for their age and would normally be fairly outgoing. It's affecting everyone in different ways and we can't go on like this forever - people are resilient up to a point but once these vaccines have been rolled out to a significant portion of the population, life has to return to normal. I think the vast majority of people have done their very best to stick to the "rules". Don't get me wrong, I am very worried about my parents catching it, so I will continue to do what's required until such time as they have been vaccinated at least. It will be a weight off knowing that they are protected anyway.

I just long to go for a nice meal in Cork City centre in the near future - I've barely been in my own city since last March! It's sad for all the businesses that should be booming now, all closed

Idbatterim

Don't Chute! wrote: »

Tomas Ryan on Newstalk this morning saying the lockdown isn’t working so wants more restrictions. He wants a 2km travel restriction now. Also said we need to get down to 10 cases per day before we can start lifting these restrictions! All said from the comfort of his home with his nice salary still rolling in.

ten cases a day ? will this fool be making all of the decisions on the budget cuts coming shortly? the likes of him are literally a waste of oxygen!

two posts above is right about getting back to normal asap. It wouldnt happen here, except the debt will get so outrageous, they wont have a choice and thank god that is the case. Believe me, they would lock at insane cost, finacial, societal etc, if they thought they could save one more covid death, its optics. They wouldnt care if ten people died from other things. Because what is one of the key metrics they are concerned about, actually by far the biggest? their handling of covid and deaths, that is the concern right now. They are too stupid to see, what they have build up, further down the tracks!

leahyl

leahyl wrote: »

.............once these vaccines have been rolled out to a significant portion of the population, life has to return to normal............

It will. But folk rammed into pubs and at gigs might not happen this year. Restaurants etc might well be open for sit-down service indoors in the Summer with social distancing perhaps. Summer 2021 won't be like Summer 2019.

What we saw in the last few weeks should surely make folk realise the restrictions are absolutely necessary.

Augeo

Augeo wrote: »

It will. But folk rammed into pubs and at gigs might not happen this year. Restaurants etc might well be open for sit-down service indoors in the Summer with social distancing perhaps. Summer 2021 won't be like Summer 2019.

What we saw in the last few weeks should surely make folk realise the restrictions are absolutely necessary.

Everyone who wants to be vaccinated will be vaccinated this year.

No more excuses at that point. Open up fully and carry on.

If there are still restrictions at that point, well we may as well consider them permanent.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Everyone who wants to be vaccinated will be vaccinated this year. ..........

Yeah, I'm on about the Summer though....... not everyone who wants a vaccine is likely to have one in June or July.

Kunta Kinte

Augeo wrote: »

It will. But folk rammed into pubs and at gigs might not happen this year. Restaurants etc might well be open for sit-down service indoors in the Summer with social distancing perhaps. Summer 2021 won't be like Summer 2019.

What we saw in the last few weeks should surely make folk realise the restrictions are absolutely necessary.

It does to the vast majority but if this thread is anything to go by there are still quite a few who seem to be unable or unwilling to accept it.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Thanks. I couldn't see this reflected in the (bookmarked!) geohive link. Where's it from?

In any case, doesn't this put the infection date from the peak at the first few days of lockdown rather than the actual period where the restrictions were lighter and people were gathering?

Yep, when people who went home for Christmas were still home

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/8/e039652

ArthurDayne

Augeo wrote: »

It will. But folk rammed into pubs and at gigs might not happen this year. Restaurants etc might well be open for sit-down service indoors in the Summer with social distancing perhaps. Summer 2021 won't be like Summer 2019.

What we saw in the last few weeks should surely make folk realise the restrictions are absolutely necessary.

Why is that?

What we saw in the last few weeks was the inevitable consequence of allowing a situation to develop where there was (1) an environment in which the transmission of infection was pushed into a bottleneck; (2) an overwhelming pent up desire among people to see friends and family over Christmas knowing full well that it would be a while before they could do so again — precisely because the harshness of the approach here made it clear to people that a sense of liberty should be enjoyed while it lasted. This is called human nature — the fundamental basis for how and why we behave the way we do, and a concept which lately we seem to be pretending is some sort of social choice that we make.

What we have seen over the past few weeks is little more than a resounding vindication of the people who argued last March that the harshness of the lockdown strategy in Ireland would merely kick the can down the road — that once the moral precedent justifying lockdown was set, it would be impossible to row back on until there was a vaccine. Those people made the argument that a year of lockdowns would cause short, medium and long term effects that had to be weighed up against the risk of a virus that is mostly killing people who have reached or exceeded average life expectancy. The people making that argument were laughed out the door because of the prevailing attitude that heavy restrictions would not go on for over a year - “sure we just need to flatten the curve, ramp up capacity, and we will be in a better place by Christmas”. This complacency towards the lockdown approach then fed the odious narrative that to question the restrictions was nothing more than questioning the right to life of the old and sick.

And even at that, what have we seen over the last few weeks? With this explosion of cases, the predictions were dire as ever of an impending cataclysm. Has it been the cataclysm predicted? Nobody denies the tragedy of the loss of life, but the scales and level of tragedy have simply not hit the levels of apocalyptic disaster that are used to justify the most stringent forms of restriction.

leahyl

Augeo wrote: »

It will. But folk rammed into pubs and at gigs might not happen this year. Restaurants etc might well be open for sit-down service indoors in the Summer with social distancing perhaps. Summer 2021 won't be like Summer 2019.

What we saw in the last few weeks should surely make folk realise the restrictions are absolutely necessary.

Of course, I know that I'm saying that if we are still in these kind of lockdowns come September, there will be a LOT of very frustrated people. I've stuck rigidly to the guidelines and I mean that - have only met up with one friend twice a week for a walk since the first lockdown ended last March and then other friends (2 in total!) a handful of times for a walk, lunch during the summer when numbers were low.

I said nothing about pubs and gigs either; of course I know they are not going to happen anytime soon - I'd just even like to be able to go to town shopping without worrying about whether it's going to be busy or not and should I stay away - I don't like that I've become like this. It's just all very mentally draining; I'm an anxious person at the best of times anyway but all of this has really not helped, and I'm sure it's the same for a lot of people.

Roll on vaccine 3,4, 5 etc.