Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

MadYaker

Deleted User wrote: »

Loath as I am to defend the poster. The 650 in hospital did not catch the virus yesterday. Less than 50 of those confirmed cases yesterday will end up in hospital

Yeah I know that, it was a poorly constructed post but this is can number 6

MEGA BRO WOLF 5000

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Maybe the doctors thought “this guy thinks the vaccine is an immediate shield eliminating all risk in the middle of a massive surge, I think we need to temper his enthusiasm”. Or maybe they were just plain wrong. A Medical degree is not a declaration of infallibility

They were talking to a group.

Rezident

You can relax the restrictions yourself, if you do it wisely. Ignore everything this government says, the only thing they are successfully doing is putting Sinn Fein in power.

Educate yourself, mitigate the risks and live your life. This government can't even manage to secure our borders which is where every single case of COVID got in, it wasn't our fault.

We just drove half way across the country again today and back to Dublin, had a good story, but we were not stopped once either way this time (we are stopped less than half the time anyway). And I have only been stopped while cycling once in the last year (I go for a long cycle pretty much every day), longer than you think. And the thought of abandoning my girlfriend who has no family in Ireland is, frankly, disgusting. I would never do that to her (for partly selfish reasons of course).

Live your life, look after your mental health. Most of the Guards are very reasonable if you are reasonable with them. They must have lost respect for this government by now also.

Silentcorner

Deleted User wrote: »

People seem to have forgotten that easing the strain on the health service was the entire goal of lockdown. They've now internalised the idea (along with government, apparently) that the goal is to never have anyone get infected with Covid. Which, let's face it, is not something that will ever happen, even if every last person in the country gets a vaccine.

There will be counties that will go weeks without a positive case that will be in level 5 lockdown till May...they may require a bed for one patient in a month...and everyone in that county will be locked down...we will have a situation where multiple counties will be in a similar situation.

This all happened already last year.

We will be ignoring the crippling social isolation of thousands of people in those areas at the same time.

MadYaker

MadYaker wrote: »

Yeah I know that, it was a poorly constructed post but this is can number 6

Surely as a confirmed lockdown merchant you were quaffing down copious amounts of Pinot while laughing at the bad hair on all those who just can’t get a haircut?

walus

end of the road wrote: »

you already know why ireland and most countries are continuing with necessary public health measures.
the experts have already told us why they are necessary.

The ‘experts’ are doubling down on a strategy that with falling compliance has far less than 1/100 chance to work. Brilliant.

robbiezero

Rezident wrote: »

You can relax the restrictions yourself, if you do it wisely. Ignore everything this government says, the only thing they are successfully doing is putting Sinn Fein in power.

Educate yourself, mitigate the risks and live your life. This government can't even manage to secure our borders which is where every single case of COVID got in, it wasn't our fault.

We just drove half way across the country again today and back to Dublin, had a good story, but we were not stopped once either way this time (we are stopped less than half the time anyway). And I have only been stopped while cycling once in the last year (I go for a long cycle pretty much every day), longer than you think. And the thought of abandoning my girlfriend who has no family in Ireland is, frankly, disgusting. I would never do that to her (for partly selfish reasons of course).

Live your life, look after your mental health. Most of the Guards are very reasonable if you are reasonable with them. They must have lost respect for this government by now also.

Great post. Agree 100%. 1 year on people should be well aware of what is needed to mitigate their own and their families risk.

And its not necessarily all one way traffic either of ignoring restrictions.
My office, a mid-sized IT company in the city, which had been very responsible all through the crisis and had closed our office completely since March had a Christmas meal the Friday before Christmas week which was well attended. They would have obeyed all the restrictions in the restaurant etc, although probably pushing the time restriction.
I didn't attend as:
1) I was visiting my parents for Christmas and as always when visiting them I lie low for 2 weeks beforehand.
2) Even if not for 1), It seemed a ridiculously unnecessary increase of contacts in a close indoor setting. I could take or leave the office christmas do on a normal year not to mind that year.

When otherwise responsible, intelligent people thought it was a good idea to have that go ahead a week before Christmas, I knew we were in a spot of bother. That to me was a complete failure of the messaging around Christmas.

gozunda

MadYaker wrote: »

Who do you think is in hospital now so? They announced 901 new cases yesterday and there around 650 people currently in hospital with COVID so I think you might a bit optimistic with your numbers there but who knows. I just can't see numbers going as low as the gov seem to be hoping for and I'm curious to know what the plan is then.

Professor Nolan was quoted on the News as saying that the reduction in cases right now is between 2% and 4 % per day down from around 10% a day just a month ago.

On the 8th of January we had a peak of 8,248 cases in a single day. By the 26 of January that had gone down to 928 cases.

However since then the number of cases have averaged at around 800 - 900 a day - with case numbers plateauing*.

Hospital numbers have also stayed up and both these issues are being largely attributed to the higher transmissibility of the UK varient now responsible for 90% of all new cases.

https://i.imgflip.com/4yldst.jpg

It will take a full 9 weeks to get down to 100-120 cases at this rate. Whilst the number of those ending up in hospital will also hopefully decline - the fact is that the length of stay for each patient won't.

*From the peak in Aprl last year of 1515 cases it took approx 4 weeks to get down to a comparable level.

*https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-tight-restrictions-to-remain-until-may-as-case-numbers-plateau-1.4489030

Silentcorner

gozunda wrote: »

Professor Nolan was quoted on the News as saying that the reduction in cases right now is between 2% and 4 % per day down from around 10% a day just a month ago.

On the 8th of January we had a peak of 8,248 cases in a single day. By the 26 of January that had gone down to 928 cases.

However since then the number of cases have averaged at around 800 - 900 a day. Hospital numbers have also stayed up and both these issues are being largely attributed to the higher transmissibility of the UK varient now responsible for 90% of all new cases.

https://i.imgflip.com/4yldst.jpg

It will take a full 9 weeks to get down to 100-120 cases at this rate. Whilst the number of those ending up in hospital will also hopefully decline - the fact is that the length of stay for each patient won't.

You are missing one vital piece of information...we didn't test close contacts for the entire months of January, you had to have one symptom...we probably had well over 8,000 cases that day and many other days...

WE started testing healthy people again three weeks ago.

This difference is important but too often gets missed in the confusion, we have no idea how many people have been infected, we do know our CFR is much smaller than we think.

People who present to their doctors should be considered a case

No one else.

We have nowhere near the control of this than we are led to believe...it's a microscopic virus...it will be less transmissible as the collective immune system improves like it does every year!

MadYaker

Silentcorner wrote: »

You are missing one vital piece of information...we didn't test close contacts for the entire months of January, you had to have one symptom...we probably had well over 8,000 cases that day and many other days...

WE started testing healthy people again three weeks ago.

This difference is important but too often gets missed in the confusion, we have no idea how many people have been infected, we do know our CFR is much smaller than we think.

People who present to their doctors should be considered a case

No one else.

We have nowhere near the control of this than we are led to believe...it's a microscopic virus...it will be less transmissible as the collective immune system improves like it does every year!

This pandemic is a game of using mathematical modelling to try and predict what's going to happen and then planning accordingly. The models get more accurate the more info that is fed into them. If you only consider cases that present to a doctor you're essentially ignoring a huge amount of information that can give us a better image of what is actually happening and allow us to make better plans. More data and information is good, less data information is bad. Case numbers even if they are asymptomatic probably shouldn't be ignored. Id love to sit down and talk to someone who actually does the modelling, I find it fascinating, this new variant must have really put the cat amongst the pidgeons for them.

Silentcorner

MadYaker wrote: »

This pandemic is a game of using mathematical modelling to try and predict what's going to happen and then planning accordingly. The models get more accurate the more info that is fed into them. If you only consider cases that present to a doctor you're essentially ignoring a huge amount of information that can give us a better image of what is actually happening and allow us to make better plans. More data and information is good, less data information is bad. Case numbers even if they are asymptomatic probably shouldn't be ignored. Id love to sit down and talk to someone who actually does the modelling, I find it fascinating, this new variant must have really put the cat amongst the pidgeons for them.

The only thing consistent about this pandemic is how off the modelling has proven to be...it's useless.

Our health authorities haven't planned for anything that I can see, which is why they want us in lockdown level 5 for as long as possible.

WE have 11,000 beds in our hospitals, we are headed to a level of about 400 beds per night with Covid not even because of covid)...but those maths don't strike fear into people so we will use other more terrifying maths.

kittensmittens

kilns wrote: »

I am Irish but I live in Switzerland. In general it has a very responsible population. For example, recently a public vote was held to increase the number of working holidays by 5 per year. It was overwhelmingly defeated as most agreed it would affect productivity. Imagine the same scenario in Ireland.

Since January, Switzerland has been locked down mostly, with the exception of schools remained open, essential shops open and ski resorts open too. Our cases are 1026 on average for the last 7 days (double the population of Ireland and more densely populated). However on March 1st, the country will begin to reopen with all outdoor areas open from Zoos, Musuems etc and from April 1st restaurants will open too.

The reason this is possible is because they mostly adhere to the rules in place and also take their own precautions. The country can begin to open up because they know things will not spread quickly as people will stay remain cautious.

Of course there are bad apples everywhere who cannot play by the rules but Irish people seem to have a large large number of these people.

I for one am looking forward to driving to Italy in May for a holiday

But hairdressers are open no?
Also click and collect for retail?
Nail salons and massage parlours etc are also open.
So a bit of a disingenuous post and actually really irritating as its very easy to preach from the pulpit about the naughty bould Irish not sticking to the rules and how the Swiss are behaving themselves..........when they/you havent half the restrictions we have!
Bit saucy alright

end of the road

walus wrote: »

The ‘experts’ are doubling down on a strategy that with falling compliance has far less than 1/100 chance to work. Brilliant.

they are doubling down on a strategy that is very successful and which has been proven to work and which is still working dispite the small fall in compliance.
government take the minority who won't comply into account when drafting anything and everything in relation to this but also know the majority will comply as we understand what will happen if we don't.

end of the road

Silentcorner wrote: »

The only thing consistent about this pandemic is how off the modelling has proven to be...it's useless.

Our health authorities haven't planned for anything that I can see, which is why they want us in lockdown level 5 for as long as possible.

WE have 11,000 beds in our hospitals, we are headed to a level of about 400 beds per night with Covid not even because of covid)...but those maths don't strike fear into people so we will use other more terrifying maths.

11000 over all beds, so your argument fails as plenty of those will be occupied for you know, all of the other reasons people will be in hospital, and the more cases that end up in hospital, the less beds.
the actual maths is the actual maths, nobody is using maths to strike fear into anyone, the idea that they are is just more conspiricy theorist stuff thrown around because the actual facts and actual data don't suit the alternative facts narative.

Silentcorner

end of the road wrote: »

11000 over all beds, so your argument fails.
the actual maths is the actual maths, nobody is using maths to strike fear into anyone, the idea that they are is just more conspiricy theorist stuff thrown around because the actual facts and actual data don't suit the alternative facts narative.

McConkey predicted 120,000 deaths in Ireland, now do you think he pulled that figure out of his arse or did he use "maths" to project that figure.

There have been 4,000 deaths, most of them with Covid, not exclusively from Covid....he was out by 116,000 deaths....this is not a conspiracy, he predicted that himself on national tv...he is still on tv predicting more outlandish nonsense...he isnot the only "expert" who has been out by a mile.

I have asked here on numerous occasions, has there been one regular contributor (to this mass hysteria) that has even been half right about anything? Nobody has been able to name one.

WE have 11,000 beds, if only 400 are occupied because of Covid that means 10,600 beds are available for all the other ailments, THAT is basic maths.

If 400 of them are all in one town, then you've problems, but as we know from last year, that will simply not happen!

Kermit.de.frog

Silentcorner wrote: »

There have been 4,000 deaths, most of them with Covid, not exclusively from Covid....

Ok professor

Silentcorner

end of the road wrote: »

they are doubling down on a strategy that is very successful and which has been proven to work and which is still working dispite the small fall in compliance.
government take the minority who won't comply into account when drafting anything and everything in relation to this but also know the majority will comply as we understand what will happen if we don't.

The problem with all that is, it doesn't explain why Florida which has been wide open for nearly 6 months now, is performing better than California which has been locked down since last March....with a much higher population in the most affected demographic.

The same goes for North Dakota and South Dakota.

The same trends are emerging here.

Di Santos (Florida) took the scientific path and it has worked out well for Floridians compared to California which has abandoned science.

Lockdowns are anti science....more and more evidence is emerging, the next few years will be consistent with these emerging trends, always trust the science.

BigAndy21

Its simple, lockdowns are bull****. I remember in 2009 when Lord Holohan wanted a lockdown for Swine Flu and was told by our government na,do one. Obviously he came back with a bigger bag of cash from Bill and a few prawn crackers this time.

GT89

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ok professor

Honest question if there was consensus from the experts that the virus was more transmissible above waist height would you crawl around the place?

MadYaker

Silentcorner wrote: »

The problem with all that is, it doesn't explain why Florida which has been wide open for nearly 6 months now, is performing better than California which has been locked down since last March....with a much higher population in the most affected demographic.

The same goes for North Dakota and South Dakota.

The same trends are emerging here.

You assume both states use the same methods of contract tracing and case recording. That isn't a good assumption and it renders your comparison meaningless.

Silentcorner

MadYaker wrote: »

You assume both states use the same methods of contract tracing and case recording. That isn't a good assumption and it renders your comparison meaningless.

Funny, the American media threw a lot of mud at Di Santos, they never mentioned anything about that though!!!

The New Yorkers are flocking to Florida, you should get onto them!!!

ypres5

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ok professor

so kermit do you believe all 4,000 covid deaths were cut down in the prime of their health by covid, that they were all in good health and then along came covid. considering that so many of our deaths especially in the first wave came from our vastly unprepared care homes one doesn't need to be a professor to put two and two together

Silentcorner

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ok professor

You are just silly.

ypres5

Silentcorner wrote: »

Funny, the American media threw a lot of mud at Di Santos, they never mentioned anything about that though!!!

The New Yorkers are flocking to Florida, you should get onto them!!!

i find it bizarre that when outliers like sweden and florida pop up some people seem to almost wish that they fail or that their policies backfire out of petty vindication. yet when places when new zealand and taiwan are brought up these same people seem to act as if they're the promised land and jacinda arderns toenail clippings cure cancer

fin12

How many people did they say would be dead this time last year can anyone remember? Was it like 800,000 or something?

gozunda

Silentcorner wrote: »

The only thing consistent about this pandemic is how off the modelling has proven to be...it's useless.

Our health authorities haven't planned for anything that I can see, which is why they want us in lockdown level 5 for as long as possible.

WE have 11,000 beds in our hospitals, we are headed to a level of about 400 beds per night with Covid not even because of covid)...but those maths don't strike fear into people so we will use other more terrifying maths.

No one wants "us in lockdown level 5 for as long as possible"

That's just conspiracy level stuff tbf.

The aim is to get the number of infected cases down. It has been estimated that approx nine weeks is required to do that at current rates of reduction. But it has not been said that the restrictions will be at level 5 up to that point in time.

Last year following the peak in April 2020 - restrictions were reduced and then increased in October as the rate of infection fell and then rose again.

Covid-19 is a dynamic and evolving situation. At present modeling is based on current trends. This year and to date the rate of infection has decreased from the peak on the 8th of January. It is now estimated it wil take approx 9 weeks to get the number of new cases down to between 100-120.

Where exactly are you getting your 400 beds per night figure? And when do you think that figure will be reached?

Silentcorner

ypres5 wrote: »

i find it bizarre that when outliers like sweden and florida pop up some people seem to almost wish that they fail or that their policies backfire out of petty vindication. yet when places when new zealand and taiwan are brought up these same people seem to act as if they're the promised land and jacinda arderns toenail clippings cure cancer

:pac::pac: That made me laugh...

They've been indoctrinated to believe that Ardern is some kind of wizard/God of some sort, been going on for years...most of them couldn't name another NZ Premier.

When a Government or Governments abandon scientific and medial best practice, you need to batter the nation into believing you are doing the right thing...Sweden and Florida (and others) are to be shamed because they are successful outliers...after this winter surge recedes, the more well run states will be following them, the rest, like ourselves, will double down on the anti scientific, inhuman, economic and socially destructive lockdown polices

Severe Lockdowns = Very good compliance to be commended in media
No Lockdowns = Right wing nutters. (Tegnell was accused at one stage as being a right winger) to be shamed in media

gozunda

fin12 wrote: »

How many people did they say would be dead this time last year can anyone remember? Was it like 800,000 or something?

Odd that question gets religiously dragged up every few days.

I posted this previously

I believe those figures were worst case scenarios.

How many cases were prevented by observing hygiene and distance regulations?

How many cases prevented by restrictions on movements?

Looking at other countries like Italy who were unfortunate to be one of the first European coutries to be hit we can have a fair idea.

Italy Coronavirus: 2,751,657 Cases and 94,540 Deaths

Thankfully a worst case scenario did not happen here ...

Silentcorner

gozunda wrote: »

No one wants "us in lockdown level 5 for as long as possible"

That's just conspiracy level stuff tbf.

The aim of the current restrictions is to get the number of infected cases down. It has been estimated that approx nine weeks is required to do that at current rates of reduction.

Last year following the peak in April 2020 - restrictions were reduced and then increased in October as the rate of infection fell and then rose again.

Covid-19 is a dynamic and evolving situation. At present modeling is based on current trends. This year and to date the rate of infection has decreased from the peak on the 8th of January. It is now estimated it wil take apotox 9 weeks to get the number of new cases down to between 100-120.

Where exactly are you getting your 400 beds per night figure? And when do you think that figure will be reached?

How is it a conspiracy, we have been in lockdown level 5 since the 3rd week of Oct, with a brief respite of level 3 for 3 weeks in Dec...and we have just been informed we could well be in level 5 until May....this isn't a conspiracy, it is happening right now.

Our hospital rate was at max 400 per night for about 6 months from June to the start of Dec...during that period we went from level 2 (3 if you were in Dublin) to to level 3 to level 5.

That rate will return within a few weeks I'd safely predict, nothing to do with lockdown, we are at the tail end of the winter surge, our immune systems are improving week on week....if 1,000 people got this virus a month ago more of them would need hospital treatment than if that same 1,000 people got it today...it will be even less in those 1,000 people got it in a few weeks.

WE have 11,000 beds in our system, for about 8 months in the last year, we have barely registered more than 400 beds WITH Covid most nights...we have destroyed our economy just in case!!!

retro:electro

The government are the ones who need to “double down” on their efforts at this stage. The absolute cheek of them to continue to implore us to dig deep and try harder when new variants are being imported here weekly. How did they get here? It’s not down to us as we can’t travel 5k from our homes without getting fined. We are the ones responsible for getting the numbers down but new variants popping up like whack a mole through no fault of ours, and we will be the ones who are punished for the rise in cases. The horse manure they’re coming out with