Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

fin12

gozunda wrote: »

Odd that question gets religiously dragged up every few days.

I posted this previously

I believe those figures were worst case scenarios.

How many cases were prevented by observing hygiene and distance regulations?

How many cases prevented by restrictions on movements?

Looking at other countries like Italy who were unfortunate to be one of the first European coutries to be hit we can have a fair idea.

Italy Coronavirus: 2,751,657 Cases and 94,540 Deaths

Thankfully a worst case scenario did not happen here ...

It’s not odd cause this is the first time I’ve asked it and have not seen it being asked here before either as I’m not on her 24 hours a day.

gozunda

Silentcorner wrote: »

How is it a conspiracy, we have been in lockdown level 5 since the 3rd week of Oct, with a brief respite of level 3 for 3 weeks in Dec...and we have just been informed we could well be in level 5 until May....this isn't a conspiracy, it is happening right now.

Perhaps look to why restrictions were brought in and why they were reduced last year.

We are currently on the downward trajectory of the most recent outbreak. A reduction in restrictions followed our previous peak in 2020 and restrictions were increased / reintroduced in October as infection rates rose.

But more importantly - no we haven't been told "we could well be in level 5 until May."

What was said that the restrictions may be maintained up to some point in April in order to get cases below a critical level

Varadkar: Taoiseach did not say Level 5 would last until May

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40230062.html

As to hospitals

Silentcorner wrote: »

Our hospital rate was at max 400 per night for about 6 months from June to the start of Dec...during that period we went from level 2 (3 if you were in Dublin) to to level 3 to level 5.

That rate will return within a few weeks I'd safely predict, nothing to do with lockdown, we are at the tail end of the winter surge, our immune systems are improving week on week....if 1,000 people got this virus a month ago more of them would need hospital treatment than if that same 1,000 people got it today...it will be even less in those 1,000 people got it in a few weeks.

WE have 11,000 beds in our system, for about 8 months in the last year, we have barely registered more than 400 beds WITH Covid most nights...we have destroyed our economy just in case!!!

First of all not all hospital beds are designated Covid beds. Covid wards and ICU require specialist staff and facilities.

In case you missed it - Ireland was nominated as having the highest infection rate of Covid in the world in January 2021 - when numbers of active cases in hospitals here also increased to an all time high. Yesterday that figure was 771. It now seems to be declining but slowly and numbers are being impacted by the new strain but hopefully by March / April will be back to something like Summer 2020 levels.

I get what you're saying about "winter surge" but it needs to be remembered that the highest Covid peak in 2020 was in April.

growleaves

The New Yorkers are flocking to Florida, you should get onto them!!!

People all over the US are fleeing to Florida since who wouldn't rather relax on Miami Beach or take in a play at the theatre rather than sitting confined in a room LARPing the Black Death.

Real Donald Trump

growleaves wrote: »

People all over the US are fleeing to Florida since who wouldn't rather relax on Miami Beach or take in a play at the theatre rather than sitting confined in a room LARPing the Black Death.

Indeed, and Texas too, both red states as well.

ceadaoin.

end of the road wrote: »

they are doubling down on a strategy that is very successful and which has been proven to work and which is still working dispite the small fall in compliance.
government take the minority who won't comply into account when drafting anything and everything in relation to this but also know the majority will comply as we understand what will happen if we don't.

Here is a graph comparing death rates in US states. The average is pretty much the same, lockdown or not. If lockdowns prevented deaths then the highest bars on the chart should be all red, but they aren't. Pretty sure when all is said and done, the rate will equal out across countries too, lockdown or not.

copeyhagen

fin12 wrote: »

It’s not odd cause this is the first time I’ve asked it and have not seen it being asked here before either as I’m not on her 24 hours a day.

tourist... :P

ceadaoin.

Real Donald Trump wrote: »

Indeed, and Texas too, both red states as well.

A lot of people are probably sorry they moved to Texas right now but not because of covid. Its in an awful state with the weather and blackouts:(

gozunda

Real Donald Trump wrote: »

Indeed, and Texas too, both red states as well.

I doubt they're going to Texas tbf


https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/19/texas-water-power-outages/

Sorry ceadaoin. You bet me to it

end of the road

Silentcorner wrote: »

McConkey predicted 120,000 deaths in Ireland, now do you think he pulled that figure out of his arse or did he use "maths" to project that figure.

There have been 4,000 deaths, most of them with Covid, not exclusively from Covid....he was out by 116,000 deaths....this is not a conspiracy, he predicted that himself on national tv...he is still on tv predicting more outlandish nonsense...he isnot the only "expert" who has been out by a mile.

I have asked here on numerous occasions, has there been one regular contributor (to this mass hysteria) that has even been half right about anything? Nobody has been able to name one.

WE have 11,000 beds, if only 400 are occupied because of Covid that means 10,600 beds are available for all the other ailments, THAT is basic maths.

If 400 of them are all in one town, then you've problems, but as we know from last year, that will simply not happen!

his prediction was based on us not implementing spread control/minimisation measures.
now whether it would have been that exact number or not thankfully we will never know, but what we do know is that it would have been a ridiculous number but for us growing up and getting a grip.
there is no mass hysteria, it's a myth, another alternative fact because the people crying hysteria can't face the reality of the situation we are in and what we are dealing with.
11000 beds includes all the various beds, allowing a situation where all those beds are in use is just not going to happen, controlling the virus is what will be happening and you will just have to accept it.

Silentcorner wrote: »

The problem with all that is, it doesn't explain why Florida which has been wide open for nearly 6 months now, is performing better than California which has been locked down since last March....with a much higher population in the most affected demographic.

The same goes for North Dakota and South Dakota.

The same trends are emerging here.

Di Santos (Florida) took the scientific path and it has worked out well for Floridians compared to California which has abandoned science.

Lockdowns are anti science....more and more evidence is emerging, the next few years will be consistent with these emerging trends, always trust the science.

north dakota and florida are less densely populated then south dakota and california.
and all states are actually around the same in terms of how they are doing.
so lock down is still working for south dakota and calafornia.
lock downs are based on science, and are pro-science.

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

No one wants "us in lockdown level 5 for as long as possible"

That's just conspiracy level stuff tbf.

But it's fine to insinuate that anyone who thinks Level 5 is the wrong strategy just wants to drink pints, lick doorknobs and cough over the vulnerable folk.

end of the road

Silentcorner wrote: »

How is it a conspiracy, we have been in lockdown level 5 since the 3rd week of Oct, with a brief respite of level 3 for 3 weeks in Dec...and we have just been informed we could well be in level 5 until May....this isn't a conspiracy, it is happening right now.

Our hospital rate was at max 400 per night for about 6 months from June to the start of Dec...during that period we went from level 2 (3 if you were in Dublin) to to level 3 to level 5.

That rate will return within a few weeks I'd safely predict, nothing to do with lockdown, we are at the tail end of the winter surge, our immune systems are improving week on week....if 1,000 people got this virus a month ago more of them would need hospital treatment than if that same 1,000 people got it today...it will be even less in those 1,000 people got it in a few weeks.

WE have 11,000 beds in our system, for about 8 months in the last year, we have barely registered more than 400 beds WITH Covid most nights...we have destroyed our economy just in case!!!

we haven't destroyed our economy at all, our economy is still very much going and quite well considering.
we have certainly shut down parts of it, parts which due to their nature are not required right now and which are higher risk in terms of spread, but the reality is that what we have shut is not actually the bigger contributer, it is the parts remaining open which are the biggest contributers.

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

But it's fine to insinuate that anyone who thinks Level 5 is the wrong strategy just wants to drink pints, lick doorknobs and cough over the vulnerable folk.

Is it? Do you do those things? How odd. But no matter personally I reckon ideas such as being kept in lockdown level 5 for as long as possible "is conspiracy level stuff. And take note that's the idea which is of conspiracy level as it doesn't stand up to scrutiny. I'd suggest you drop the stirring spoon before it hits you.

ceadaoin.

end of the road wrote: »

north dakota and florida are less densely populated then south dakota and california.
and all states are actually around the same in terms of how they are doing.
so lock down is still working for south dakota and calafornia.
lock downs are based on science, and are pro-science.

North and south Dakota have extremely similar population densities, one is 10 people per square mile, the other is 11. Florida has a higher density than California! What you're saying just isn't true. You're trying to twist facts to make it seem like restrictions made any difference.

Also, North Dakota didn't "lockdown ". They brought in a mask mandate and capacity limits to bars etc, the latter of which have now been loosened. Again with the twisting of facts. Despite this they still had the exact same results as lockdown and mask free South dakota. Not sure how you conclude that they work in that case? Also, California has a similar number of deaths per capita as Florida. Again, how does that show lockdowns prevent deaths?

CruelSummer

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/no-meeting-outdoors-or-travel-further-than-5km-until-may-under-new-plan-40111982.html

Another leak instead of politicians coming out and giving their plan to the population directly. It is saying no lifting of the 5km limit until May? This limit should be the first thing lifted now to allow people travel to the beach, mountains, etc as the weather improves - where they’re not near anyone else but will do their mental health the world of good. National parks like Glendalough just need to go ticketed for access and Gardai presence.

beggars_bush

Penfailed wrote: »

The N56 in Donegal is hardly critical transport infrastructure but the realignment is continuing unabated.

Wind turbines will be moved along that road

SnuggyBear

CruelSummer wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/no-meeting-outdoors-or-travel-further-than-5km-until-may-under-new-plan-40111982.html

Another leak instead of politicians coming out and giving their plan to the population directly. It is saying no lifting of the 5km limit until May? This limit should be the first thing lifted now to allow people travel to the beach, mountains, etc as the weather improves - where they’re not near anyone else but will do their mental health the world of good. National parks like Glendalough just need to go ticketed for access and Gardai presence.

They are out of their mind if they think people will stick to that until May

Silentcorner

gozunda wrote: »

Perhaps look to why restrictions were brought in and why they were reduced last year.

We are currently on the downward trajectory of the most recent outbreak. A reduction in restrictions followed our previous peak in 2020 and restrictions were increased / reintroduced in October as infection rates rose.

But more importantly - no we haven't been told "we could well be in level 5 until May."

What was said that the restrictions may be maintained up to some point in April in order to get cases below a critical level



https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40230062.html

As to hospitals



First of all not all hospital beds are designated Covid beds. Covid wards and ICU require specialist staff and facilities.

In case you missed it - Ireland was nominated as having the highest infection rate of Covid in the world in January 2021 - when numbers of active cases in hospitals here also increased to an all time high. Yesterday that figure was 771. It now seems to be declining but slowly and numbers are being impacted by the new strain but hopefully by March / April will be back to something like Summer 2020 levels.

I get what you're saying about "winter surge" but it needs to be remembered that the highest Covid peak in 2020 was in April.

I never said beds are designated Covid beds...what difference does that make.

The simple maths is, we have 11,000 beds in our hospitals, for much of last year, and indeed this year will be the same, we won't need any more than 400 beds for Covid patients...someof those will have caught it in hospital....that is the maths related to hospital beds full stop.

The Covid figured for last March are worthless, we were testing at a pace much different to what we were testing in April, but that is the tail end of our typical flu season.

Hellrazer

gozunda wrote: »

I believe those figures were worst case scenarios.

How many cases were prevented by observing hygiene and distance regulations?

How many cases prevented by restrictions on movements?

...

And heres something I posted previously.There were 100k deaths predicted and I agree that AT THE TIME we weren't sure about how effective the virus was at killing people.

However this is something I worked out last October and honestly looking back on it my modelling back then is as close to the figures we have now.
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=114966301&postcount=5523

The death rate from covid 19 is roughly 1.4% (and that's being generous - some sources say between 0.5 and 0.65%) ie out those that have a positive test 1.4% will die.

With a population of 700k over 65s then that equates to 9800 deaths.@1.4% - at 0.5% its 3500.

If you want to use the total population of the Republic @ 5 million and at 1.4% that still only equates to 70,000 deaths and that's assuming that every man ,woman and child has a positive test - at .5% its 25000.

So if you look purely at the figures that currently sit at 4109 deaths then the death rate is around 0.53% in over 65s - I was bang on with that one.

92% of the 4109 deaths are in the over 65s and we have 700k over 65s in the country - that's 3739 deaths in this age group - Again back in October I was almost spot on.

For McConkey to have been correct we would have to have a death rate of 2% and for us to reach his number of 100k deaths every single person in the country would have had to been tested positive for covid.
The actual death rate as a percentage of the total population is only 0.08%
ie 4109 as a percentage of 5 million.

So if you look at where we are now and all of our over 65s and vulnerable people are vaccinated then we should have almost zero deaths when they are all vaccinated.

We may still have high case numbers but this virus kills old people and vulnerable people so we vaccinate them and get the country open up again by May and open up fully. There is no reason to keep us locked down.


By the way Im purely looking at deaths and not case numbers as a percentage of the population.


What Im saying is that this scare mongering is keeping us locked down. With a death rate of 0.08% of the entire population and a death rate of 0.5% in our over 65s then there is no reason why we cant just vaccinate the over 65s and open up.

We don't even need to vaccinate the other groups - just go hell for leather with everyone over 65. That would have the biggest effect on supressing this virus.

Doctor Jimbob

CruelSummer wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/no-meeting-outdoors-or-travel-further-than-5km-until-may-under-new-plan-40111982.html

Another leak instead of politicians coming out and giving their plan to the population directly. It is saying no lifting of the 5km limit until May? This limit should be the first thing lifted now to allow people travel to the beach, mountains, etc as the weather improves - where they’re not near anyone else but will do their mental health the world of good. National parks like Glendalough just need to go ticketed for access and Gardai presence.

It feels like every day we're waking up to more bad news. Does anywhere else have anything like the 5km restriction still in place?

Neagra

i really hope schools open
but how can the government re open schools and tell people they are safe when at the same time we cant go 5km for our homes and sites/barbers/hairdressers etc are closed and level 5 is here until may at least

anyone who wants to live their lives while at the same time showing respect for those who wish to distance and lockdown MUST surely now understand that this lockdown will be here for many more months.
anyone who is struggling mentally with the restrictions from today please get out and live
go to a playground, go for a ****1ing run with a mate, go walk in the woods with your dog, go bring your children to visit family in an outdoor setting, go for a game of football in the park. whatever helps.
remember to show this virus respect by distancing/cleanliness, but dont let the cowards and morons in government make you and your families lives hell.
only you know how you want to live with this virus - now go do it.

Silentcorner

end of the road wrote: »

his prediction was based on us not implementing spread control/minimisation measures.
now whether it would have been that exact number or not thankfully we will never know, but what we do know is that it would have been a ridiculous number but for us growing up and getting a grip.
there is no mass hysteria, it's a myth, another alternative fact because the people crying hysteria can't face the reality of the situation we are in and what we are dealing with.
11000 beds includes all the various beds, allowing a situation where all those beds are in use is just not going to happen, controlling the virus is what will be happening and you will just have to accept it.




north dakota and florida are less densely populated then south dakota and california.
and all states are actually around the same in terms of how they are doing.
so lock down is still working for south dakota and calafornia.
lock downs are based on science, and are pro-science.

His prediction was based on hot air, you can't predict 120,000 deaths and be out by 116,000 deaths...taking him seriously at this stage is just silly.

This nonsense has to be challenged every time ...

Lockdowns are not science based, there is no science underpinning the most inhuman, economic and socially destructive policies ever witnessed, absolutely none.

These have never been used in the manner and scale they are now, so no respected scientist or medical professional would be in a position to have even a positive position on lockdowns until all the data required to have a legitimate opinion is available to them....none of them even considered lockdowns like this as a method to control a virus as far as I can see.

You'd need to have all the related data like economic cost, all related health implications (missed cancer diagnosis for example) which won't be available for some time yet to be in a position to even consider whether lockdowns are worth the damage they cause.

Di Santos in Florida brought in Harvard Experts in September last and he followed their advice as the science has been established ...he has been proven right...

Lockdowns are NOT science based....you've been sold a pup if you believe they are, you don't need to be an expert to see you just need to open your eyes.

Ashleigh1986

Now it's the Brazilian variant of covid in Ireland .
Brought in by Brazilian meat factory workers by Larry Goodman to his meat factories ?
Do ye remember keelings and their fruit pickers ?
So while we are limited to 5km, can't go to get our hair cut , can't go to 200 acres plus of a field to play golf , the elite can STILL BRING WORKERS IN FROM HIGH RISK AREAS !!!!

walus

Silentcorner wrote: »

His prediction was based on hot air, you can't predict 120,000 deaths and be out by 116,000 deaths...taking him seriously at this stage is just silly.

This nonsense has to be challenged every time ...

Lockdowns are not science based, there is no science underpinning the most inhuman, economic and socially destructive policies ever witnessed, absolutely none.

These have never been used in the manner and scale they are now, so no respected scientist or medical professional would be in a position to have even a positive position on lockdowns until all the data required to have a legitimate opinion is available to them....none of them even considered lockdowns like this as a method to control a virus as far as I can see.

You'd need to have all the related data like economic cost, all related health implications (missed cancer diagnosis for example) which won't be available for some time yet to be in a position to even consider whether lockdowns are worth the damage they cause.

Di Santos in Florida brought in Harvard Experts in September last and he followed their advice as the science has been established ...he has been proven right...

Lockdowns are NOT science based....you've been sold a pup if you believe they are, you don't need to be an expert to see you just need to open your eyes.

Lockdowns are theory that is largely based on Robert Glass model that is again based on the complexity theory. It does not take into account human psychology at all.

Neddyusa

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Here is a graph comparing death rates in US states. The average is pretty much the same, lockdown or not. If lockdowns prevented deaths then the highest bars on the chart should be all red, but they aren't. Pretty sure when all is said and done, the rate will equal out across countries too, lockdown or not.

Absolutely it will. A highly transmissible virus will always find an equilibrium. Like water in the ocean.
That's why prolonged lockdowns were never recommended by the WHO.
The two week lockdown to "flatten the curve" made sense with the first or second wave last spring. All restrictions since have been counterproductive.

RobitTV

Some quotes from the Irish Independent article:

No meeting outdoors or travel further than 5km until May under new plan

The country is facing into at least 10 more weeks of lockdown

Three ministers who attended the meeting insisted there will be no easing of restrictions until May

Ministers said the Government will consider easing the 5km travel ban and people may also be permitted to meet outdoors if the virus is under control in MAY. :pac::D

Happy Saturday everyone! hold firm....

Silentcorner

walus wrote: »

Lockdowns are theory that is largely based on Robert Glass model that is again based on the complexity theory. It does not take into account human psychology at all.

Utterly psychotic so in other words.

This period will not be judged kindly in years to come.

Hellrazer

Silentcorner wrote: »

His prediction was based on hot air, you can't predict 120,000 deaths and be out by 116,000 deaths...taking him seriously at this stage is just silly.

.

I have to play devils advocate on this one. At the time no one knew what the mortality rate of covid was. See my previous post.

However we know now that the death rate is 0.5% or thereabouts.

This can also be applied to Italy -they have 96k deaths and an over 65 population of 26million roughly. That equates to around 0.4% of deaths in over 65s.
Ive tested this with a few countries and even Sweden 2.06 million over 65 has a similar death rate - 12190 in over 65s @0.59% - and they had no lockdowns!!!

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

Odd that question gets religiously dragged up every few days.

I posted this previously

I believe those figures were worst case scenarios.
....... ...

Indeed, folk won't of can't accept that the restrictions prevented so many deaths. It's like if 800k don't die the covid was just a government wind up.... And the 800k wherever it comes from would have been an early days estimate .

daydorunrun

Neagra wrote: »

i really hope schools open
but how can the government re open schools and tell people they are safe when at the same time we cant go 5km for our homes and sites/barbers/hairdressers etc are closed and level 5 is here until may at least

anyone who wants to live their lives while at the same time showing respect for those who wish to distance and lockdown MUST surely now understand that this lockdown will be here for many more months.
anyone who is struggling mentally with the restrictions from today please get out and live
go to a playground, go for a ****1ing run with a mate, go walk in the woods with your dog, go bring your children to visit family in an outdoor setting, go for a game of football in the park. whatever helps.
remember to show this virus respect by distancing/cleanliness, but dont let the cowards and morons in government make you and your families lives hell.
only you know how you want to live with this virus - now go do it.

Agree 100%

In fact I’d go as far as to say the Government would be relived if people started to do all these things themselves without being granted permission to. It takes the heat off them having to grant permission so the finger of blame can’t be pointed at them. After Christmas they are afraid to make calls on relaxing restrictions.
The problem is the longer you keep tight restrictions the more likely you are to see people taking risks when it’s decreed they can. Some people make decisions on what’s allowed rather that what is safe.

Neddyusa

MadYaker wrote: »

This pandemic is a game of using mathematical modelling to try and predict what's going to happen and then planning accordingly. The models get more accurate the more info that is fed into them. If you only consider cases that present to a doctor you're essentially ignoring a huge amount of information that can give us a better image of what is actually happening and allow us to make better plans. More data and information is good, less data information is bad. Case numbers even if they are asymptomatic probably shouldn't be ignored. Id love to sit down and talk to someone who actually does the modelling, I find it fascinating, this new variant must have really put the cat amongst the pidgeons for them.

And this is where you are very mistaken.
Any model is only as strong as its weakest link. Poor quality dirty data is what creates weak and useless models.
Eg. anayisis comparing case numbers between time periods with differing criteria for a person being offered a Covid test is useless. Anyone who studied statistics at the most basic level will know this.
Less data, once its clean and controlled, is always better than more dirty data.
**** in = **** out.