Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Silentcorner

Augeo wrote: »

Indeed, folk won't of can't accept that the restrictions prevented so many deaths. It's like if 800k don't die the covid was just a government wind up.... And the 800k wherever it comes from would have been an early days estimate .

This is pure gaslighting.

If there was a noticeable difference in outcomes between countries that locked down and countries that didn't lockdown, then you'd have a point...

But the opposite is happening....so you don't have a leg to stand on!!!

pjohnson

Augeo wrote: »

Indeed, folk won't of can't accept that the restrictions prevented so many deaths. It's like if 800k don't die the covid was just a government wind up.... And the 800k wherever it comes from would have been an early days estimate .

Some seemed to think the "worst case scenaria" was actually a target we should have tried to meet.

Hellrazer

Hellrazer wrote: »

I have to play devils advocate on this one. At the time no one knew what the mortality rate of covid was. See my previous post.

However we know now that the death rate is 0.5% or thereabouts.

This can also be applied to Italy -they have 96k deaths and an over 65 population of 26million roughly. That equates to around 0.4% of deaths in over 65s.
Ive tested this with a few countries and even Sweden has a similar death rate in over 65s @0.58% - and they had no lockdowns!!!

There was an awful lot of folk acting like there was lock down in Sweden.

Hellrazer

Augeo wrote: »

There was an awful lot of folk acting like there was lock down in Sweden.

Fair enough but it wasn't as severe as we had.

RobitTV

This 'living with covid' plan is going to be rather comical and depressing at the same time. A 'new plan' that will see us not living with covid and not coexisting with the virus.

You'll hear a major amount of spin next week by the FG / FF spin master team in order to justify this plan. Don't even waste a moment of your time listening to them. Question and debate everything.

The Irish public should begin to question and debate. But many people in our society have sat idly by for months.

Boggles

Hellrazer wrote: »

I have to play devils advocate on this one. At the time no one knew what the mortality rate of covid was. See my previous post.

However we know now that the death rate is 0.5% or thereabouts.

This can also be applied to Italy -they have 96k deaths and an over 65 population of 26million roughly. That equates to around 0.4% of deaths in over 65s.
Ive tested this with a few countries and even Sweden 2.06 million over 65 has a similar death rate - 12190 in over 65s @0.59% - and they had no lockdowns!!!

The "death rate" is not static, it fluctuates depending on how a health care system can cope.

Also 11 months in if you are still using death as the single metric to gauge a pandemic, you are doing it wrong.

70% of people who required critical care in Sweden were under 69.

Keeping people out of critical care is the target.

Hellrazer

Augeo wrote: »

Indeed, folk won't of can't accept that the restrictions prevented so many deaths. It's like if 800k don't die the covid was just a government wind up.... And the 800k wherever it comes from would have been an early days estimate .

But it didn't prevent 96,000 deaths.

As I said - we didn't know the death rate back in March last year so they were right to lock us down when it wasn't known- the death rate could have been 10% for all they knew back then.

However we know now its around .5% and that should not allow them to keep us locked down as severely as we are now.

walus

Silentcorner wrote: »

Utterly psychotic so in other words.

This period will not be judged kindly in years to come.

No, it will not. I’d love to know who came up with this lockdown-until-vaccine franchise. If we had the governments of 195 countries thinking on their own we would see wide range of approaches being implemented, and possibly a couple of those strategies proven successful already. Instead we have the same strategy implemented by the vast majority of countries which only really worked in 2 of them. That only shows that this is not a universal way to deal with a pandemic.

Why on earth, having now the access to vaccines, are we not selectively isolate the vulnerable and those who care for them and their families, while the rest of us go back to living as we know it, is beyond my understanding. Surely we could do that quite effectively for a period that is required to get that group vaccinated. Also, it would not cost the 250m per week as we currently spend on this prolonged lockdown approach.
But then again if you sunk 30bn into this, another 1bn per month is only 3% more... it is cheap.

dublinbando

I'd rather be dead than have no freedom

Hellrazer

Boggles wrote: »

The "death rate" is not static, it fluctuates depending on how a health care system can cope.

Actually Ive found it isn't that far off. Ive done the same exercise with numerous countries and its hovered around that 0.4 - 0.6% death rate in over 65s.

The UK stands out @ 0.9% for some reason and they apparently have a great health system.
111525 deaths from a population of over 65s of 12 million.

On the other side of the coin is India 87 million over 65s and a death rate of 156k over 65 - that's only 0.18% and they wouldn't be said to have a great health system.

Also 11 months in if you are still using death as the single metric to gauge a pandemic, you are doing it wrong.

Can you genuinely explain this to me?
Its deaths that we are trying to prevent - no?

70% of people who required critical care in Sweden were under 69.

Keeping people out of critical care is the target.

Is it though? Genuinely trying to see your side of the argument and why you would want these lockdowns to continue.

Graham

Hellrazer wrote: »

However we know now its around .5% and that should not allow them to keep us locked down as severely as we are now.

Sounds logical if we ignore any long-term effects of covid and the potential for new mutations.

walus

Hellrazer wrote: »

But it didn't prevent 96,000 deaths.

As I said - we didn't know the death rate back in March last year so they were right to lock us down when it wasn't known- the death rate could have been 10% for all they knew back then.

However we know now its around .5% and that should not allow them to keep us locked down as severely as we are now.

Yes, you would struggle to find arguments against the first lockdown. Back in the second week of April I did my own maths on this based on the available data and the death rate that I calculated was 0.64%. Subsequent months provided more information that largely confirmed that the death rate is somewhat lower.

So even in the early stage there was data available.

Silentcorner

Silentcorner wrote: »

This is pure gaslighting.

If there was a noticeable difference in outcomes between countries that locked down and countries that didn't lockdown, then you'd have a point...

But the opposite is happening....so you don't have a leg to stand on!!!

There's not noticeable difference between Ireland in Oct Nov & Ireland in January? We'd our most deaths after opening up in December.

Gaslighting me hole.

Hellrazer

Hellrazer wrote: »

....

However we know now its around .5% and that should not allow them to keep us locked down as severely as we are now.

So what happened in January would have gotten worse, hospitals jammed full, staff shortages etc etc.

JMNolan

dublinbando wrote: »

I'd rather be dead than have no freedom

That's called "wrong think"

Boggles

Hellrazer wrote: »

Can you genuinely explain this to me?
Its deaths that we are trying to prevent - no?

Is it though? Genuinely trying to see your side of the argument and why you would want these lockdowns to continue.

It's not my opinion TBF.

The main reason for restrictions is to not overwhelm the health system, when that happens non covid care is reduced to emergency only, and in some cases like we saw in London sadly not even that.

We either have short memories or people were not paying attention, but we just got a stark example of how fast this virus can hospitalize people, over 6,000 since January 1st and that's with applying the brakes pretty quickly. Add to that almost 2000 deaths in the same time frame.

On a plus point, vaccinating health care staff and the over 70s should knock a massive dent in it and should allow for easing of restrictions.

On the other hand it can't be a free for all, because based on the stats from Sweden the majority of people who received critical care were not in this cohort, you can still banjax the system.

And as you more than anyone else are acutely aware, the system was not fit for purpose before this happened.

Captain_Crash

So despite NPHET/government voicing concerns about complacency creeping in, there is no noticeable increase in movement from people since L5 began. For me this points to the stall in case decline as an issue with L5 itself and not the people forced to endure it

https://twitter.com/irishdataviz/status/1363060006153822208?s=21

batman_oh

Ashleigh1986 wrote: »

Now it's the Brazilian variant of covid in Ireland .
Brought in by Brazilian meat factory workers by Larry Goodman to his meat factories ?
Do ye remember keelings and their fruit pickers ?
So while we are limited to 5km, can't go to get our hair cut , can't go to 200 acres plus of a field to play golf , the elite can STILL BRING WORKERS IN FROM HIGH RISK AREAS !!!!

Thousands of Brazilians that live here went home and partied for Christmas too, it's not just factory workers!

Jinglejangle69

Captain_Crash wrote: »

So despite NPHET/government voicing concerns about complacency creeping in, there is no noticeable increase in movement from people since L5 began. For me this points to the stall in case decline as an issue with L5 itself and not the people forced to endure it

https://twitter.com/irishdataviz/status/1363060006153822208?s=21

Definitely more cars out and about than the first lockdown.

They said it during the week.

Testing of all close contacts also kicked in a few weeks ago......... obviously, test more people who came in close contact with covid19 and you'll find more. That cancels out whatever gradual decline that was happening for the past while.

gozunda

SnuggyBear wrote: »

They are out of their mind if they think people will stick to that until May

This was the headline for anyone who missed it

Varadkar: Taoiseach did not say Level 5 would last until May

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40230062.html

Penfailed

The UK have extended their lockdown powers to July...just in case.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-lockdown-idUSKBN29S0PW

St.Spodo

Independent reporting this morning that people won't be allowed meet up outside until "May at the earliest." That's outrageous.

Captain_Crash

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Definitely more cars out and about than the first lockdown.

They said it during the week.

Than the first lockdown yes, but it’s been pretty consistent during this lockdown! It’s visible to anyone who drives a lot, myself included.

Jinglejangle69

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Than the first lockdown yes, but it’s been pretty consistent during this lockdown! It’s visible to anyone who drives a lot, myself included.

Agree.

RugbyLad11

Graham wrote: »

Sounds logical if we ignore any long-term effects of covid and the potential for new mutations.

Ah yeah the long term effects, I see they mention depression as one of the long term effects. This had clearly not going to do with being locked down for a year:rolleyes:

Also if the long term effects are so worrying while do so many want us to give our vaccines to the 3rd world after we've vaccinated the vunerable?

Penfailed

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Than the first lockdown yes, but it’s been pretty consistent during this lockdown! It’s visible to anyone who drives a lot, myself included.

Yeah, there's definitely more traffic on the roads than the first lockdown but it's still waaaay down on normal.

RobitTV

RobitTV wrote: »

Some quotes from the Irish Independent article:

No meeting outdoors or travel further than 5km until May under new plan

The country is facing into at least 10 more weeks of lockdown

Three ministers who attended the meeting insisted there will be no easing of restrictions until May

Ministers said the Government will consider easing the 5km travel ban and people may also be permitted to meet outdoors if the virus is under control in MAY. :pac::....

they can do one The mood music has changed with the public.

Live your lives anyone who is suffering under this, get out there, feel the wind and the rain, climb a mountain, walk on a beach. Do not let your one and only life be dictated by people who have literally no idea how this is affecting the ordinary person on the street.

You are in control of your own life. Most of us have done our level best in the last year. Weigh up your risks and what you need for your mental health and get back to living in some form. Stop waiting for a dithering, point scoring, back slapping, delusional Government to decide the rest of your life!


(I feel terribly sorry for parents of young kids and I thank God I am past that stage. I remember only too well how difficult it can be with a house full of restless youngsters or moody teenagers. Its difficult at the best of time. No consideration has been given to this group in particular, and enormous damage has been done already)

gozunda

Hellrazer wrote: »

And heres something I posted previously.There were 100k deaths predicted and I agree that AT THE TIME we weren't sure about how effective the virus was at killing people.However this is something I worked out last October and honestly looking back on it my modelling back then is as close to the figures we have now.
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=114966301&postcount=5523
So if you look purely at the figures that currently sit at 4109 deaths then the death rate is around 0.53% in over 65s - I was bang on with that one.
92% of the 4109 deaths are in the over 65s and we have 700k over 65s in the country - that's 3739 deaths in this age group - Again back in October I was almost spot on.
For McConkey to have been correct we would have to have a death rate of 2% and for us to reach his number of 100k deaths every single person in the country would have had to been tested positive for covid.
The actual death rate as a percentage of the total population is only 0.08%
ie 4109 as a percentage of 5 million. So if you look at where we are now and all of our over 65s and vulnerable people are vaccinated then we should have almost zero deaths when they are all vaccinated.

We may still have high case numbers but this virus kills old people and vulnerable people so we vaccinate them and get the country open up again by May and open up fully. There is no reason to keep us locked down.

By the way Im purely looking at deaths and not case numbers as a percentage of the population. What Im saying is that this scare mongering is keeping us locked down. With a death rate of 0.08% of the entire population and a death rate of 0.5% in our over 65s then there is no reason why we cant just vaccinate the over 65s and open up. We don't even need to vaccinate the other groups - just go hell for leather with everyone over 65. That would have the biggest effect on supressing this virus.

That's the crux there. Higher case numbers mean associated hospital and ICU numbers.

This banging on about the death rate like the projections which were given at the beginning of the pandemic were just that - projections. We know the current death rate. The issue right through since February 2020 has been keeping the rate of infection down so the hospitals aren't overrun and we were touch and go with that in January. Thankfully the current rate of infection is now on the way down. It is predicted that with the current rate of decline of between 2%-4% we will be at between 100- 120 by May.

As far as I can see we've also a way to go to getting all the over 65s vaccinated. Eitherway the current timeliness are looking towards May to achieve a critical number of vaccinations and lower case numbers.

Once people read into the actual figures and worked it out we are on trajectory to where we were last summer with low case numbers and lower restrictions. Obviously the new strain and higher transmissibility may complicate that and hence why not trowing the baby out with all the bathwater.

Tbh most of the scaremongering seems to be coming for doommongerers who are going on about restrictions being kept forever and we need to rise up yada yada and then the media with sensationalised headlines that people are believing are bona-fide 'leaks' :rolleyes:

Leftwaffe

St.Spodo wrote: »

Independent reporting this morning that people won't be allowed meet up outside until "May at the earliest." That's outrageous.

Very hard to take this morning.

To be honest. I’ve never stopped visiting my parents or in laws throughout. I’m WFH so never go anywhere. But I haven’t been meeting friends. Going forward I’ll be meeting them outside for exercise, may even have a few pints watching a match or something.

There are more dangerous things in life than this virus.