What does the future hold for Donald Trump? - threadbans in OP

Brian?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118559535#Comment_118559535

I can only explain it in relative terms. The GOP base turned out for him. Independents and Dems turned out against him, in a massive way.

More people were able to voted than ever because of the range of voting options thanks to the pandemic.

2011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118560580#Comment_118560580

…..and I can only reiterate that despite the complete shambles of his campaign in 2016 including his “pussy” remarks he somehow won.

They say a week is a long time in politics. By 2024 anything could happen.

Perhaps if Democrats had taken Trump a bit more seriously in 2016 he would never have become president. There is a lesson there!

ohnonotgmail

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118560694#Comment_118560694

4 years is a long time in politics hence why he lost so badly in 2016. He was unknown and some people took a chance. the fake FBI investigation in Hilarys emails didn't help either. he won't have that the next time around.

osarusan

I wouldn't be convinced that the independents are as important a demographic as others seem to think.

After 4 years of Trump, he ended up getting even more votes than the first time around. Now, I'm sure there were some who gave him a chance in 2016 who didn't vote for him in 2020. But that cohort of voters was more than compensated for by those who did vote for him in 2020, for whatever reason, who apparently did not in 2016. Amazing as it seems, there were millions who didn't vote for him in 2016m, and who looked at what he did in his term as president and said 'Yes, that's the guy for me'.

Biden won by a comfortable margin, for sure, but a good chunk of that was the anti-Trump vote. And I think that's the issue with Trump. Yes, he can mobilise more Republican voters than anybody else, but he can also do the same for those who will vote against him.

rossie1977

Trump has by far the best chance among the potential Republican candidates (actually none of the others have any chance) but winning is a different matter altogether.

Unseating a sitting President is extremely tough. Trump despite so many scandals and overseeing an economy in absolute meltdown still got 70 million votes. The next three years look to be some of the most prosperous in US/Western Europe history coming out of pandemic so any Republican will be attempting to convince voters they are a better choice than the guy overseeing a booming economy.

Brian?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118560694#Comment_118560694

There is definitely a lesson there. They took it for granted and didn’t get the vote out in the mid west. A better ground game in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pa and Hilary would have won.

I know Pa isn’t really the mid west.

Dr. Bre

I can see trump junior running in the future . The Trumps will not go away even when Don is done .

Glencarraig

I see that The Orange One has said that if he runs and wins in 2024 that he will pardon all the January 6th rioters who have been rightly put in jail. If that is not an admission of guilt that he was 100% responsible for the riots then I dont know what is.

duploelabs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118560967#Comment_118560967

Which one? And what would the bring to the fold?

Tell me how

Trump came within a couple hundred thousand votes in key states from being returned as President in 2020. Irrespective of the 7M popular vote majority, if Trump had won those states collectively, he'd still be in office and Biden would be fully and completely retired.

This is the primary risk to Democrats in 2024, that these swing states swing back again and that could easily happen because of what Republican legislators are doing at the state level and even aside from that, if the turnout drops significantly in 2024, and it happens moreso amongst Democrats than Republicans, then again, that presents a problem.

The Democrats are burdened with judging their guy in office on the job he is doing and how it meets the needs of the country whereas as we saw with Republicans, they don't let such issues get in the way and so we see negative reaction towards Bidens achievements from some quarters which is then being used by Republicans as evidence that apparently his election is a fiasco, which is far from being the case.

There was a protest in Florida at the weekend at which the Nazi Symbol was hung from bridge overpasses along with the 'Let's go Brandon' phrase. The two parties are not playing by the same rules even though they are playing in the same game and the consequences are likely going to be real, and impactful.

Tell me how

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118561066#Comment_118561066

I think the only one would be Ivanka but that if she were to run in 2032 or 2036 for example and there still hadn't been a woman President, unfortunately she'd stand a very good chance.

In her favour (and it pains me to write that).

• Could say that having worked closely with Donald, she has political experience.
• Her husband is also politically experienced.
• She could point to business achievements as a sign of competency.
• Aesthetically, Fox News would literally wet themselves with excitement at the thought of her running.
• If Donald is out of the picture (dearly departed) she could blame him for all the negatives of his Presidency while also saying that she actually reigned him in in many ways thus making her some sort of saviour to those who said no one needed to be saved from the ineptitude of her father.

I'd hate to see it, but can easily see it happening. The Democrats including Biden should have been pushing hard for criminal proceedings against the inner circle of those involved in the insurrection and they are dangerously close in missing the window of opportunity to do so.

Fathom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118519620#Comment_118519620

Trump lost. He lost big time in 2020. Or to use a Trumpism, Trump lost bigly. Biden won both the popular vote by 7 million over Trump, and substantially more than enough to win the Electoral College (306 vs 232). Minimum 270 to win.

Furthermore, Trump lost the popular vote to Clinton in 2016 by almost 2.9 million votes. But Trump won in the EC 304 to 227.

The ancient EC essentially favored small states rights over more populous states, giving in to the earlier colonial originated federalism arguments. Thereby giving substantially more weight to the vote of a Wyoming resident with a total population of only 581,075 which Trump won, over California with 39,613,493 which both Clinton and Biden won by huge majorities over Trump. Also in both houses of Congress, especially in the Senate where tiny Wyoming has 2 senators and massive California only has 2. And the 2 votes count the same.

You cannot pump Trump numbers in such a way that it superficially appears that he was winning in 2020. You need to factor in voter turnout for each general election year, otherwise it becomes misleading and essentially meaningless.

2011

"Furthermore, Trump lost the popular vote to Clinton in 2016 by almost 2.9 million votes. "

^^^^ This statement is irrelevant, what is relevant is that he won the election. That is the rules of the game. I say this as someone who is appalled by Trump.

Fathom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118561712#Comment_118561712

Being appalled about Trump’s 2016 win goes double. Worse, he could win 2024.

Many of the GOP controlled state legislators are passing voter restricting laws that may favor Republicans in both 2022 and Trump in 2024. Like greatly reducing or eliminating ballot collection boxes in high population cities that tend to vote for Democrats. Reducing time when polls are open where large populations have to stand in lines for hours to vote. Reducing or cutting off the days following the official Election Day when votes count. Eliminating mail in ballots. Making sure that there is no day off from employment on Election Day. Passing a law that allows the GOP controlled state legislature to throw out the normal election results that may favor a opposition party winner, and substituting their losing party candidate as the winner. This list goes on and on.

Like you said. They are playing the game to win. Especially in GOP legislative controlled swing states. Focusing on the Electoral College votes, and not the popular vote. This way Trump could repeat 2016 and not 2020.

Dr. Bre

So trump could win the next election but lost the popular vote 3 times - yikes

Fathom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118562118#Comment_118562118

One person, one vote doesn’t hold true in the USA presidential elections. Consequently Trump can win in the ancient Electoral College, but lose the popular vote by millions, as he did in 2016 and probably 2024.

Tell me how

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118562118#Comment_118562118

You should look in to the practice of Gerrymandering and how it influences US Government progression.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118562048#Comment_118562048

Is it possible that states with a currently Republican-majority legislature could implement legislation which gives them emergency powers to suspend election certification in the event where they believe their elections to be compromised and instead send a group of electors chosen directly by the state legislature or are there enough constitutional mechanisms in place to block such a move? I've seen speculation on this, but it's hard for me to tell if it's just sensationalism/fear-mongering or not.

Because if states started doing that, you could still say, "Well, it's really all about the electoral college..." but in reality it would be obvious that the paradigm has fundamentally shifted.

Fathom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118562220#Comment_118562220

Such Republican controlled state legislators can claim that their election maybe compromised without legal proof, if they pass laws that allow their legislators to vote on what they feel to be the case. Of course their feeeeeeelings may be consistent with substituting electors for their state in support of Trump, even if in reality Trump lost in 2024.

Recently I read something about groups of Republicans in states where Trump lost in 2020 sending an alternative slate of electors to DC. These were not appointed by their GOP state legislators, and not approved by the state governors, but they still tried it on behalf of Trump.

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118562152#Comment_118562152

Popular vote is meaningless because everyone knows it's about the EC.

Going on about the popular vote is like saying the best team is the one that scores the most goals in the season. It might help, but every team knows it's about points, not goals scored. If it was down to goals scored, every team would focus on scoring the most goals.

Just like if the popular vote decided elections, Trump would spend more time trying to win over the populous areas.

Penn

And yet the point is constantly made, including by Trump himself, about how no sitting President ever got 75m votes, and how he got more votes than he did in 2016.

The popular vote is repeatedly used as a way of saying how great Trump is when it suits that argument.

Cody montana

New: Some Trump White House documents handed over to the Jan. 6 committee had to be taped back together by the National Archives because they had been ripped up, the agency said in a statement to CNN.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118563522#Comment_118563522

It was long reported that Trump kept ripping up papers - The ingrained habits of a grifter - every time he was handed a document to read, his natural instinctive reaction is to rip it up to destroy any evidence.

TheIrishGrover

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118559535#Comment_118559535

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118559688#Comment_118559688

1) More responsible environmental policies cost the electorate more money. Trump's pollution friendly policies will put more money in people's pocket in the short term. Many people will vote for the person that they think will make them wealthier, simple as. Let's not forget, Trump believes in reviving the coal industry!

Let's also remember how many people in the US simply don't even BELIEVE in Climate Change (Mainly as the result of Interest group lies)

2) Trump is a master at spreading disinformation. God only knows what he will unleash next and how may will believe it.

No more needs to be said here.

3) The financial repercussions of covid that Biden will have to deal with are massive and this will hurt many. Sufficient numbers may conclude that Trump would have handled the situation better.

This could actually swing either way. If there is a global upturn in world economy throughout the next 6-18 months as the result of emerging from the pandemic (Or at the least, reduction of restrictions) then this could help Biden. Certainly every politician internationally will claim responsibility for the improvement in their own country's post-pandemic recovery. You will be forgiven for thinking that Biden, Johnson, Martin personally dragged everyone from the Pandemic mud.

4) Some independents may simply vote for Trump because he is "anti-establishment" and things are not working out for them. Like a protest vote.

That certainly may have happened in 2016. Clinton was not very well liked outside of her party lines (Even within her party lines). However I believe that true independents will not do this again, given the divisive nature of the horror-show that was his presidency. Regardless of any of his foreign policies or anything, his cheerleading and active participation in sowing hatred and fear and mistrust in the American people (Again, simply for profit and to get back into office) will surely have horrified genuine independents.

5) If the whole "Russia situation" goes south, this could also work in Trump's favour.

This is a loss either way. Either he gets involved militarily in which case he's a war-monger. Or he doesn't in which case he's a pussy (Ready for the grabbing). You can already see the white-hood.... I mean red-hat brigade already spouting this.

6) Arrogance: Many Democratic voters may assume that they don't need to vote. Big mistake!

This. Yep, IMHO, this is how he got in in the first place: Arrogance and Apathy. And this 100000% could happen again in 2024.

Biden's an old hand, and a capable politician in the conventional sense, but he's not a particularly inspirational figure. Kamala Harris seems a divisive figure, like she's a target for all the guff about gender/race quotas and seems too left-leaning for middle-America.

This is what I meant by my previous comment "there is no denying the fact that Biden does not have the force that trump has.". And yes, Harris is too female and too dark for Americans to vote her in as President. TBH, I don't think they'd have voted Obama if he was only running now. Certainly if he was running now, after Trump's Presidency.

Edit: Fixed typos

amdublin

2024: Personally, I believe there is a massive risk he will win. Not the popular vote. But the EC - I think all the changes will impact the democrat vote

My only hope is that he will be prosecuted before then. But how???? He is like frickin Teflon. Any thoughts on this? What is the likelihood of him being prosecuted, for what, and how and who?

Saying that, news from the Jan 6 committee today about interviews with Pence's staffers do seem positive...

TheIrishGrover

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118566059#Comment_118566059

What is the likelihood of him being prosecuted, for what, and how and who?

Zero. He's a politician... a rich politician... a rich politician in AMERICA. Too much money. Too powerful. Too many of his dangerous klan willing to resort to violence/threats of violence. He won't even enter a courtroom unfortunately.

I hope I am wrong but I don't believe I am.

duploelabs

More attempts to subvert the democratic process of 2020

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/01/trump-giuliani-voting-machines-election-report?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Stanley 1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118561066#Comment_118561066

How about Jared and Ivanka as some kind of double act, pair of them would empty Fort Knox within the first year and have MBS/Putin/Kim Jong all at the WH for a week's partying.

ohnonotgmail

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118566314#Comment_118566314

The NYAG disagrees with your assessment. their case against him for fraud is well advanced.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118566571#Comment_118566571

Sadly the NYAG case doesn't come with a threat of jail/conviction.

They can issues heavy fines and sanctions like forcing them to wind up with companies or ban them from holding directorships/office with a compnay etc.

Could still really really hurt Trump , but won't put him in Jail.

The Manhattan DA case though is a criminal case and could result in Jail time for some people - not Donald Sr for sure , but Eric might be at risk.