What does the future hold for Donald Trump? - threadbans in OP

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847084#Comment_120847084

I certainly wouldn't agree with Piers Morgan on everything, but I do agree with him that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is thoroughly wicked. I doubt RFK is ignorant enough to really think there's the kind of support for forcing Ukraine to negotiate that it would help propel him to the 2024 nomination, and therefore think that he's really just doing all of this to up his profile. You can get a tidy audience for yourself out of being an 'enlightened centrist'.

notnattynate

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847011#Comment_120847011

RFK is an interesting phenomena,

Where is his support coming from exactly?

One would think anti vaccine sentiments were for those on the right side of the aisle but it seems a sizeable portion of left leaning citizens were anti vaccine or have become anti vaccine since the pandemic?

Now we are out the far side of COVID, is there left leaning citizens looking back in retrospect at COVID alot differently than they did at the time it was evolving in 20/21?

RFK's growing popularity shows if nothing else Biden's Growing unpopularity and it creates a conundrum for the Democrats, Biden who started his presidency polling at in late 50 percents is now polling at 40%. Trump is also polling at 40% I believe according to FiveThirtyEight.

Can the Democrats rely solely on people voting against trump being enough in November 2024?

Will biden Garner 81 million votes again? Will Afghanistan withdrawal, inflation, vaccine mandates, the never ending mumbling and tumbling lose him votes?

Wether those votes will go to trump in big numbers is very unlikely in my opinion but will the numbers show up for Joe again is the question? If nothing else at least trump knows his base will show up and represent not because they hate the other guy but because they love their guy. Biden can not rely on that same core vote he got in 2020 the same way Trump can.

Gavin (American psycho) Newsom is making some noise and gaining traction again after a horrendous few years as governor of California and maybe the answer to the Democrats prayers come 2024.

Either way I am genuinely looking forward to the campaign trail as toxic and divisive as it will be,I think it's the most important US election this century at the very least, what direction is America going to choose to set it's sails?

Irrespective of who wins let's hope somehow the country can come together and show the world cultural healing is possible.

silliussoddius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847303#Comment_120847303

Actually I seem to remember him giving a speech about a kid who caught autism almost right away after getting jabbed. Of course he supports the vaccine that he can take credit for.

briany

@notnattynate

RFK's growing popularity shows if nothing else Biden's Growing unpopularity and it creates a conundrum for the Democrats, Biden who started his presidency polling at in late 50 percents is now polling at 40%. Trump is also polling at 40% I believe according to FiveThirtyEight.

Firstly, the pendulum nature of American politics seems to be such that if they elected God as president, his/her favourability polling across the board would dip below 50 percent at the midterm point.

Secondly, their relevance to actual voting intention doesn't seem to amount to much as Donald Trump was hit with low poll numbers toward the end of his presidency and somehow got TEN MILLION more votes than he did the previous time. There was similar fretting for Obama in 2010 when his polling numbers were in the low 40s (44 percent, I believe), yet he ended up beating Mitt Romney pretty handily two years later, despite Mitt Romney actually being a basically normal person, albeit an odious neo-con.

Every US president gets the blame for every wrong that's ongoing in their country, whether their contribution to those wrongs is real or imagined, but how this translates to actual voting intention seems quite opaque and is a science that still seems to elude pollsters.

Ultimately, Joe Biden isn't that inspiring a choice for president at all, and in another timeline he's probably enjoying a well-earned retirement, but the thing is that his current main rival for the job is worse in every single way, so unseating him is far from a foregone conclusion.

notnattynate

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847521#Comment_120847521

So you're saying that he is against previous Vaccines but for the COVID Vaccine?

Does that make him anti vaccine I'm not so sure.

He may have been anti-vaccine before his presidency but since his presidency he has supported the vaccine even to the disappointment of his followers.

People can change I guess.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847549#Comment_120847549

He talks out of both sides of his mouth on vaccines. Wants it himself. Wants to take credit for the rollout. Probably didnt expect the level of anti vax in republican ranks so dog whistles to them. I dont think he ever once challenged an anti vaxxer. But he tried to undermine Fauci and the CDC.

notnattynate

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847536#Comment_120847536

Yes I agree with you, how everything effects voting numbers is very hard to forecast especially in the current political climate.

I feel to suggest in a blanket statement that Trump is worse in every single aspect to Biden is incorrect, however I also respect your opinion and realise that I am not going to change that opinion on an anonymous discussion board and jousting attempts would return futile.

How the economy is come fall 2024 could be the deciding factor, if this administration can get to November 2024 without a recession or economic collapse of some magnitude it will get them over the line. I hope for new blood of some sort would win the ticket as we have already had 4 years of Trump and 4 years of Biden and 4 years of either will do nothing to heal the wounds of America.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847484#Comment_120847484

RFK's support is coming from MAGA heads.

He doesn't really have "growing popularity" - He's getting more media attention but that absolutely will not translate into actual votes in the Primaries.

The GOP are hyping him trying to split the Democrat vote and make it seem like he has a chance , he doesn't.

He won't come close to winning a single State.

As has been discussed before Bidens popularity or "satisfaction" polling as President are absolutely not the same as Election polling.

Thinking that Biden hasn't been great as President does not mean that people are going to vote for Trump instead.

Despite satisfaction polls showing him in the low 40's, when asked the follow up question of "If he's the candidate, will you vote for him" the overwhelming majority of Democrats (85%+ I think) said yes they would, along with a hefty chunk of Independents and crucially more Independents than said they'd vote for Trump.

2011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847549#Comment_120847549

Trump flip flops on this issue depending on which way the wind is blowing.

See link:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/09/health/trump-vaccines.html

notnattynate

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847603#Comment_120847603

I will be keeping a keen eye on the primary in the granite state as I'm sure you will.

Circa 50% of Democrats don't even want Joe Biden to run again, RFK Jr is the thorn now growing in the blue side of Washington reminding them of Joe Bidens unpopularity.

Trumps weaknesses as a Candidate are what the Democrat establishment are hanging their hopes on for a second presidential election in a row which is a not just a daring move in itself it also exposes the weakness of their own position.

The 2024 election will be a lot closer than 2020 in my opinion.

notnattynate

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847609#Comment_120847609

I concede of course that Trump will say what ever will benefit Trump, one of the few traditional political traits he chose to uphold.

Overheal

Trump sticks a knife in any of Trump Jr's dreams of running for POTUS after this all blows over in his late 70s:

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/we-cant-have-a-president-on-cocaine-trump-baselessly-declares-blow-was-joe-bidens/

briany

@notnattynate

I feel to suggest in a blanket statement that Trump is worse in every single aspect to Biden is incorrect, however I also respect your opinion and realise that I am not going to change that opinion on an anonymous discussion board and jousting attempts would return futile.

It's possible Trump has a better handicap at golf than Biden, although there's been books written about how much Trump reportedly cheats...

Yes, if we want to get into semantics, there are probably aspects where Trump is better than Biden, but the sum of it is no contest. Trump has no business holding public office. And this is not based on some conspiratorial thinking but on direct evidence like his regular deranged rants on his social network, him being caught on tape showing off classified documents, him giving a speech that denied the results of the 2020 election (with no evidence). These are only a clutch of the highlights. He's a dangerous, narcissistic and ignorant blowhard. He has crassened American political discourse in a way that will take at least an generation to normalise.

Overheal

Kushner has been before the Grand Jury for Jan 6

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NggDXyc0x-M

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htbhIRHx7UI

Reportedly the top ask was regarding Trump's mens rea: did Trump know, and when did he know, he in fact legitimately lost the election

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/prosecutors-ask-jared-kushner-if-trump-knew-he-lost-2020-race/

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847680#Comment_120847680

Again though ,even though that 50% of Democrats would prefer that Biden not run again , if he is the candidate the overwhelming majority are still going to vote for him.

RFK is an irrelevance being wildly over-hyped by the right.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848741#Comment_120848741

Hunter Bidens Lawyers have just sent Trump a "cease and desist" letter about his posts on this.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hunter-bidens-lawyer-sends-cease-desist-letter-trump/story?id=101231412

Will be interesting to see how Trump responds..

It would be beyond hilarious if Hunter got a gag order or even successfully sued Trump for libel.

notnattynate

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848788#Comment_120848788

Trump is only a mere symptom of the decay, dysfunction and unchecked corruption in American democracy.

Washington establishment are doing everything they can to destroy Trump, when the irony is they are the ones who created the Trump machine.

Overheal

After failing to launch on Twitter, under the auspices of Twitter losing $ billions in valuation and hemorrhaging users and corporate talent to companies like Meta, Tucker Carlson is seeking investors for a new venture... with Twitter 'as the backbone'

https://www.mediaite.com/news/tucker-carlson-seeking-to-raise-hundreds-of-millions-to-fund-new-media-company-with-twitter-as-its-backbone/

Basically he's hoping to sell himself to "an incongruous number of ultra wealthy conservative media investors" to launder their views writ large (like white nationalism or antisemitism) while still clinging to the idea that there would be enough lowly subscribers who a) believe all that clap and b) can afford to subscribe to that nonsense (then again, some of these people would kill their families over these conspiracy theories (mostly about saving the children ironically), so what's $15/mo to your bigotry-messiah).

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848875#Comment_120848875

Kushner has his cash from the Saudi's , he will throw Trump under the bus in a heart-beat if it is to his benefit.

In fact , it's hard to think of any of his former "inner circle" that would take a hit to protect Trump.

Maybe someone like Nauta possibly , but it remains to be seen how he reacts when potentially faced with significant Jail time - Hard to see him or anyone else deciding to take jail time over a deal where they provide evidence of Trump wrong-doing.

Overheal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120851516#Comment_120851516

But what we didn't hear about Jared Kushner is him turning State Witness, or any Proffer Agreement, like we have through courtwatching with other high profile individuals like Rudy Giuliani, so I don't particularly know if he is in throw under the bus territory or pending indictment territory or what.

Then again I guess it depends on how long ago DOJ first made contact with Kushner on the case, he could have flipped early, and we don't even really know, but that would be congruent with him and Ivanka physically and politically and legally distancing themselves from Donald Trump and Mar a Lago.

I don't recall Jared and Ivanka being in the picture much lately. Starting to wonder what the status of the $2 Bn is tbh. Last Congress was proceeding to investigate but then GOP took the House and it mostly only comes up now as the big ask to proportionalities in the Hunter Biden allegations (which concerns ~$3.5 M to ~ $100 M)

notnattynate

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120851496#Comment_120851496

Well you hardly expected Tucker to work for free did you?

Musk has said Carlson is not being paid by Twitter nor does he have a contract with the company. Carlson has said, "I'm not working for Elon Musk, he hasn't offered to hire me and if he did, I wouldn't accept, what he's done is offered me what he's offered every other user of Twitter which is a chance to broadcast your views without a gatekeeper."

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120851601#Comment_120851601

Oh , I doubt he'd just "offer him up" as it were but if he was faced with a choice of "Take one for the team or dob in the Donald" he wouldn't hesitate to shaft Trump , just as Trump wouldn't hesitate to throw anyone else including his kids to the Lions to save himself.

Overheal

Which BTW, just seems crazy to me,

https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/us-news/2023/07/14/64b0d8b046163fb2018b4583.html

What is he paying them 'creators' like "Nick Adams (Alpha Male)" with, the money he's to get from investors from his next vaporware startup? Robbing peter to pay Paul? Twitter BTW is another place where a lot of Saudi Money was recently funneled (funny how it's now a hive of rampant fascism and antisemitism)

That's certainly the funny thing, he's wealthy enough he could never work a day in his life Tucker Carlson (Elon too but that's for another thread). But no, I completely understand the motivation to make sure your enterprise is profitable ie. successful and growth-prone. It just seems bananas that you'd consider Twitter the backbone of that. But, he's not trying to appeal to rational people.

TBH Twitter is just the most recent vestige. MAGA etc., Russian and other foreign troll farms took over Facebook then when Facebook stopped treating those users with kids gloves, came Parler and Truth Social etc. and a hostile saudi funded takeover of Twitter. It will be something else next, probably not Threads, but who knows. Given his presence (imaged above post) at LIV etc. we can be sure he is actively wooing foreign money, especially from the Sauds. I wonder if he fancies himself a patriot for 'getting some of that Saudi money for MERICA' while he spouts his messages designed to get people to hate each other so much they go out and start murdering* (making Saudi Arabia a state sponsor of terrorism again). *

notnattynate

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120851671#Comment_120851671

Paying content creators is nothing new, YouTube have been doing it for a well over a decade.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120851713#Comment_120851713

It's not the paying it's the amounts, given what we know about Twitters Ad Revenue.

Those rates of pay don't scan with the reported scale of the collapse in the already anemic Twitter Revenue streams.

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120851713#Comment_120851713

Youtubers pay directly correlates with AD revenue taken in per video. They’re not being paid purely for the sake of making videos, plenty do that already. YouTube’s model has even driven many creators to lean on sponsorships to get enough cash.

What Twitter may be doing is top-loading the platform with creators that Elon etc may find desirable for creating the narrative they like, which seems to lean into pro-MAGA territory. Twitter potentially starts to morph into a better funded Parler.

Overheal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120851753#Comment_120851753

This.

"Google bought YouTube in 2006 for $1.65 billion, but generated little revenue in the early years." (WSJ 2015)

It's well known Elon is run out of cash of his own accord (being sued by shareholders of SpaceX and Tesla for neglecting those investments too) and it is known he's solicited foreign support from regimes like Saudi Arabia and even China. So Carlson pinning his mast to this platform while it is turning into a MAGA etc. echo chamber in the US/english portion of it, is strange, especially when it is unprofitable, and 'Tucker Carlson doesn't work for free,' (and where does the money come from to pay the content creators), and which investors aren't tapped out except seemingly, eyebrow raisers like China and Saudi Arabia. Not that China nor Saudi Arabia don't have constitutional rights of their own to make legal investments like sportswashing or similarly endorsing barkers like Carlson if they want; I wouldn't be surprised to learn however if there is a lot of money changing hands between the people in the image above, and perhaps the source of a lot of that money was the leaking of, or direct or implied sale of US classified nuclear and defense information by someone pictured center.

everlast75

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1679904954553597952?s=20

Line 'em up, boys!

tesla_newbie

I wonder do a sizeable number of people vote Trump just to see what happens?, mean I don’t believe he did anywhere near as much damage as George W Bush while president and trump derangement syndrome appears to definitely be a thing but by any fair analysis, he’s a terrible public speaker with no signs of any wisdom, never mind intellect ( most of what he says is pure sh1te)

like I said, do people vote Trump for the lols?

duploelabs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120852155#Comment_120852155

How many excessive deaths of Americans on trump's watch vs bush's?

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120852155#Comment_120852155

They might think that about him, if it wasn't for the very real consequences such as the January 6th attack on the Capitol. At this stage 'Trump Derangement Syndrome' appears to be a more accurate description of the man himself and wingnuts who think he win the election.

Probably there are more ratings and satirists have more material.

If only we could put him in a box like a cross between Truman Show \ West Wing where he thinks he is the President and watch it purely for entertainment value.

What's really peculiar about Trump is that I have seen him in documentaries and retro speakers from the 1980s and early 1990s and he comes across very well as a speaker. It's like a different person.