What does the future hold for Donald Trump? - threadbans in OP

TinyMuffin

…….

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023888#Comment_121023888

D) is a rapist.

And this should put up everywhere.

Penn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023902#Comment_121023902

At least other countries are able to have fun with it

https://twitter.com/ChudsOfTikTok/status/1694980593711251954?s=20

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023905#Comment_121023905

Sure but that is his ceiling. Hilary was hated. That is effectively his ceiling and the college is very hard to win if your absolute best is being several million votes behind.

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023905#Comment_121023905

Yeah but you were talking about her being hated, she won the literal popular vote.

So by your own definition Trump was more hated.

Anyway she lost that election for numerous reasons, not just one.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023835#Comment_121023835

Trump will win the primary because with FPTP, 30% support can win in a 10 horse race.

30% of Republicans is nowhere near enough to win the Presidency. Lots of Americans voted for Trump in 2016 because they thought it was funny. Since then the joke has gotten old and lots of places have had their abortion rights severely restricted.

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024031#Comment_121024031

Whilst the description given by that poster may not have been as eloquent as you might wish, when it comes to voting, perception plays a very large part and if a person doesn’t think Biden is up to the job based on how he comes across on TV, which is where most people gain their perception of any US presidential candidate, then regardless of how they describe it, that’s their true reality- giving out to people for using non PC language won’t win Biden the next election, and millions of voters may well be coming to a similar conclusion, regardless of what words they use.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024061#Comment_121024061

That's what he would like to do, I think, or at least he would accept that outcome, but he'd have to battle the general current of U.S. foreign policy in order to.

It's typical Trump, of course. Makes a pronouncement about what he would do and offers no detail. In the case of Ukraine/Russia, his plan, such as it is, is to tell Zelensky to get on the phone to Putin and make a deal, and also tell Putin to accept a deal with Zelenskyy or else Ukraine would receive 'unprecedented' support from the U.S.

Again, this is pretty vague. Would that mean that Zelenskyy can call whatever deal he wants and Putin has to accept or else have stealth bombers pounding Russian front lines within the week? If so, that wouldn't actually be a bad proposition. However, even Trump knows that deals involve negotiation, and neither side is yet willing to meet in the middle.

Cody montana

Don jr selling t shirts with the mugshot already.

Bunch of grifters.

valoren

Trump claiming his arrest is election interference despite that arrest being for his evident election interference. Parody stuff.

In 2016 it was generally presumed that, all things considered, that Clinton was a shoo-in to win i.e. no way will Trump be President/voters will, even if they have to hold their noses, do the right thing and vote Clinton. Perhaps this made a crucial difference in voting patterns which allowed Trump to eek out enough EC votes (despite handily losing the popular vote). It could be a case of a similar voter malaise creeping in ahead of 2024 i.e. no bloody way will people vote in Trump, they'll do the right thing. With a writers strike then there is a litany of talent available to drum up a relentless campaign in compelling voters that even if they had to crawl a mile over broken glass to reach a voting booth then they would just to keep Trump out of the White House.

ancapailldorcha

I find it telling that Trump isn't even pretending to have policies at this point. He's clearly gunning for the people he feels slighted and unjustly persecuted by. It's all rather pathetic but there is a real danger that he might win. I am inclined to think it is unlikely for a few reasons.

The first is the attempted coup. The MAGA faithful are as fervent as ever but some of the GOP's voter base may flip for the centrist Biden or just stay at home. Everyone else was and is disgusted by this brazen and half-assed attempt to overthrow democracy.

Second is covid. He spread anti-vaxx conspiracy theories for years and led the worst response in the developed world to the virus in which hundreds of thousands of Americans died. The MAGA faithful don't care one bit but anyone outside that demographic, particularly those who lost loved ones have a reason to be hostile towards Trump.

Finally, 2016 will be 8 years before Trump's probable next attempt in 2024. That's a lot of time for the privileged, baleful elderly demographic to die off and the GOP haven't done much to replace them. It's a bit different from Europe where there are confounding factors like rural isolation, local cultures and evangelicalism in the mix but it's hard to see why someone who was a teenager in 2016 would vote Trump in 2024 unless they come from a diehard GOP family.

At the time of writing, fivethirtyeight states that just over 56% of Americans hold an unfavourable opinion of Trump.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/

Tony EH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023524#Comment_121023524

He can't even be honest about his weight.

:/

Economics101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024136#Comment_121024136

Calling someone a walking corpse is not just non-PC; it's plain insulting and demeaning.

PC, which is so often a load of nonsense would demand that one refer to Biden as a Senior Citizen of some other empty euphemism.

Leroy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024136#Comment_121024136

That all makes sense, except that the only alternative they will have will be Trump. If the GOP, as has been pointed out previously, went with someone else then I think Biden would be in serious trouble. But it looks almost certain they will put Trump up as the GO candidate and therefore the comparison is between a fail, but what mostly people accept is a fairly hardworking and straightforward Biden, and Trump.

Trump, a convicted rapist, indicted 4 times on 91 counts. Surrounded by other people indicted. Has no one from his original term backing him, and very many claiming he is terrible.

So much like on 2016 when people looked at HC and opted for Trump because they had so many issues with HC, Trump faced the same in 2020 and will face the same in 2024. Trump is extremely divisive. People love him, but many people really hate and fear him. And that fear was shown to be perfectly legitimate with his carry on before, during and after January 6th.

Americans are massively patriotic, massively proud of their democracy. And will mobilise to save it. They came out in record numbers for Biden, as the only alternative to Trump, in 2020 and there is no reason to think the same dynamic won't be in play in 2024. In fact, that dynamic may even be increased due to everything that has happened since 2020.

AMKC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024249#Comment_121024249

At the time of writing, fivethirtyeight gives Trump a 56.2% to Trump.

What are you on about?.

That's says only 39.8% favour Trump to win thankfully and 56.2% favour him to lose thankfully.

Water John

The data scatter in the time graph, needs a deeper analysis by a data analyst. HC in 2016 had an 85% chance of being elected to DT at 15%, yet he won. What does this graph say, JB at 90% and DT at 10% is my guess, looking at it.

Tony EH

.....

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024294#Comment_121024294

Typing error. Fixed.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024061#Comment_121024061

I mean, he won't, because its not remotely within his power to do so. He'll simply cost Ukrainian lives by limiting the supply of arms to them which will drag the war on longer. If Trump told Zelensky to make a deal he'd be told to get fucked.

It's not the US' war.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121023875#Comment_121023875

Biden is too old but he's absolutely not useless. He's had a very quietly successful term and has engaged in the kind of consensus building politics many people at least claim to want. The IRA has been a pretty good success and his role in aiding ukriane should not be understated.

banie01

Ladies and gents, for your entertainment! In the Red corner, weighing at 215lbs and all of 6'3" strawberry blonde dynamism 🤨 Your QGOP champion...

Versus in the Blue corner....

https://twitter.com/RobertMackey/status/1694953700912140360?t=R-limg-Vwn3UrUG_1zHlKA&s=19

FishOnABike

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024032#Comment_121024032

can you explain exactly how?

L.Ball

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024347#Comment_121024347

Trump is finished, it's over for him.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024654#Comment_121024654

He'll withdraw all support and leave it for Putin to ravage. Trumpsters have been Putinist shills for several years now.

duploelabs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024672#Comment_121024672

Just like what happened in Syria, whereas this time it's the Ukrainians he's leaving for dust rather than the Kurds

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024672#Comment_121024672

Indeed. Even before the war Tucker announced he would support Russia in such a war.

Any deal would just be a time save as Russia rebuilt in an attempt to actually take Ukraine within 3 days in their next invasion.

mcmoustache

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024654#Comment_121024654

They can't. It's just a repetition of something they saw online in one of their troughs of bullshít, devoid of any thought or reason. If they did try to explain it, and put it into words, they'd realise how stupid it sounds. Rather than explain it, they'll just duck away for a while before popping up somewhere else later with the same stupid drivel.

ollkiller

Without appealing to the independent and middle voters Trump hasn't a chance in hell of getting reelected. Swing voters have decided multiple elections in the USA and will decide the next one. And Trump wont change. He will go even more hardline. And thus have zero chance of getting elected.

TinyMuffin

Is it not republicans that are flipping to give evidence against trump.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024903#Comment_121024903

And look at the result. Russia destroyed as a fighting force and the object of ridicule on the world stage. They're completely isolated. Biden played a blinder here whereas his predecessor would have handed Ukraine over or even declared war on it as well.