What does the future hold for Donald Trump? - threadbans in OP

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121192322#Comment_121192322

They are absolutely ranting about it , but crossing the aisle for a Speaker vote would be political suicide for any GOP member to be fair.

Think they'd need 6?

Are there 6 "sane" GOP Congress members that are retiring in 2024 so they don't care about being Primaried?

Penn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121192322#Comment_121192322

Currently 221 GOP, 212 Dems, and 2 vacant seats (one was GOP, one was Dem).

218 is the majority required for votes, so all Dems + 6 GOP would get him in. I don't see it happening though.

everlast75

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121192375#Comment_121192375

It doesn't really matter though.

To the American public, you have one unified party consistently putting forward a respectable candidate for house speaker.

On the other, a party who just fired their own speaker and are racked with infighting, and who will probably cause a shut down.

The optics for the GOP are absolutely awful here.

Penn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121192394#Comment_121192394

Agreed, but it unfortunately highlights how tightly the House is split that about 8 members of the GOP can wield such influence and be able to try make their entire party acquiesce to their demands because they hold just enough votes to stop anyone from reaching a majority without party lines being crossed. All they have to do is vote Present rather than for either candidate, and neither side can reach the 218 votes.

So anyone from the GOP trying to lay the blame at the Dems' doors is just nonsense. It's entirely a mess of the GOP's own making.

TinyMuffin

Mtg and boebert missed a trick by not voting against him. All the airtime they’d have got out of it.

nachouser

I've seen it described online as "Republicans are attacking Democrats for not stopping Republicans from attacking Republicans."

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

So, is there a Republican, then, that had a likely chance of getting 218 votes?

This has the potential to make for a very long-winded shotshow

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121192814#Comment_121192814

Correction: another long-winded shotshow 'cos we've been here already with McCarthy's election. No doubt it's gonna happen again and again.

Penn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121192814#Comment_121192814

Same as with McCarthy trying to get the votes for Speaker at the start of this term, nobody in the GOP will get 218 votes without either getting some Dems to agree to vote for them (unlikely) or without getting Gaetz and his cohort to vote for them, and that would involve basically agreeing to do whatever they want.

One of the main reasons McCarthy got Gaetz's vote last time was agreeing to amend the rules to mean only one member is required to call a vote to remove the Speaker. It was intended so Gaetz could vote out McCarthy if he didn't keep to their agreements. And it worked, because McCarthy extended government funding to prevent a shutdown against Gaetz's wishes, so Gaetz called for the vote to remove McCarthy and they did.

Nobody on the GOP side will now get the 218 votes without Gaetz et al, and if anything Gaetz is now emboldened by the power they wield in voting for the next Speaker they can demand whatever they want.

briany

They're never going to be able elect a speaker with the house being that evenly divided and the wing nuts holding the balance of power. It's a similar situation to Brexit and why it took so long to make any decisive moves there. The solution with Brexit, in the end, was a last minute compromise followed by fresh elections. The US may have to do similar, but right now it's just another poison flower blossoming from the tree the Republican party planted.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121192853#Comment_121192853

No matter who from the GOP puts their name forward , there will ALWAYS be at least 6 members from any of the 101 different GOP factions that won't vote for them.

This could go on pretty much indefinitely.

amandstu

Can ,in theory the GOP just withdraw the whip (or expel) those few members if the process drags on long enough?

They have the majority in the party.

They would be conceding the next election and Trump would likely run as an independent.

Seems ridiculously improbable but that would be par for the course.

duploelabs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121192984#Comment_121192984

Or domestically, when an area from an independent td in government coalition gets a brand new hospital (Michael cough Lowrey)

duploelabs

First to the table gets the best deal

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/03/politics/georgia-election-interference-plea-deal-talks/index.html

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121193159#Comment_121193159

They can't expel them for not voting along party lines and removing the whip doesn't bar them from voting - It's a House vote , not a caucus one.

They could still expel Gaetz on foot of the ongoing Ethics committee investigation regarding underage sex trafficking , but even if he was truly guilty there (he probably is , he's scum) it will look to the MAGA's like revenge for removing McCarthy.

That could either scare the rest of the MAGAs into compliance or it could send them utterly off the deep-end - Who knows..

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121193296#Comment_121193296

Immediately after the vote ,I heard a Democrat was quipping that the GOP could now start its civil war.

Is that likely (that this will split the party and bring about a new de facto majority in Congress)?

Overheal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121192240#Comment_121192240

If McCarthy is turning around now and crying about democrats that’s rich, he declared he wouldn’t seek their support:

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/kevin-mccarthy-rules-out-alliance-with-dems-to-fend-off-matt-gaetz-you-dont-surrender-as-the-majority/

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/video-of-mccarthy-belitting-democrats-was-played-for-house-dems-before-vote-on-speakers-fate/

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/aoc-tears-into-kevin-mccarthy-for-blaming-democrats-for-demise-expected-dem-votes-for-free/

kowloon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121187469#Comment_121187469

I do remember getting a gaming laptop some years ago and the same board/cpu/gpu and ram options in a regular case cost more when they shafted you on the cost of upgrades so you could forgive her that if you're being very charitable. But switch off the lights ffs!

Overheal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121193754#Comment_121193754

I remember working laptop sales. ROG only flew off shelves because of what else was on offer was **** tbh. Giant f'ers with giant asses, 3 times the weight of other laptops, ran hot as a motherfucker too.

She's a 6-figure lawyer, she definitely doesn't do anything professionally requiring that much CPU or GPU. The question is not is she a gamer, it's what she plays when she's not filing the forms for jury trials. I'm guessing something escapist and ironically lightweight like Stardew Valley. Or the Sims.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121193972#Comment_121193972

Ill bet money its the Sims

Overheal

As for Speaker Trump not a chance in hell. And even if somehow on some planet or even dumber timeline he got the votes, (I'm often despondent at how dumb the timeline actually is; take solace in how much stupider it can get), the sheer insanity would result in a Blue Wave November as independents and traditional conservatives rush across the aisle to preserve the democratic republic.

Leroy42

Trump would never do it. All this is is MAGA making the line that he would love to, for the sake of America, but the Dems, or the Elites, or Pelosi, or the Clintons, or the trials he has to sit through, etc etc mean he can't.

He would love to and would do a great job of course. Because the one thing that Trump proved when he was POTUS was how to get deals done!

ArmaniJeanss

I'm a bit ignorant on why Speaker is so important.

Like I know its 3rd in line to the Presidency, but this is somewhat illusory as there's no realistic chance of the speaker ascending to the presidency. i.e., if Joe Biden died today, as I understand it an hour later President Harris would have selected her VP, and the speaker would still be third.

So what is it about the role that causes such a fuss? Is it a recent thing - looking at the list of speakers I genuinely couldn't tell you one factoid about say John Boehner who was speaker for 4 years of the Obama presidency. So why has it become so crucial that people are fighting over it? Lots of questions, sorry.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121194061#Comment_121194061

I think he can control the procedures of Congress ,which is one of the pillars of the State ,along with the White House, the Judiciary ,the Military and the Senate.

And the 52 (?) States...

Penn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121194061#Comment_121194061

They're essentially the leader and figurehead of the majority party in the House of Representatives, and so they help dictate what bills will be read, committees, what debates will be had, the format etc. There are obviously rules for all that which they have to adhere to as well so a lot of it is just administrative, but ultimately, they run the House of Representatives, which is one of the legislative Branches of the US Government (legislative, judicial & executive).

So it is an important position, just not a flashy one.

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121194061#Comment_121194061

The Speaker of the House might be the closest thing the US has to a Prime Minister. The role itself is more of a wierd mix of something like a referee (Like the Speaker of the UK House of Commons), but at the same time the lead member of the majority party, thus also kind of like a Prime Minister.

Speaker of the House can wield a good bit of power while in post. Well…usually…if your party wasn’t inhabited by authoritarian fan boys who get you fired for not doing Russia a solid by shutting down the government.

Overheal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121194088#Comment_121194088

And the 52 (?) States...

and you laughed when that American on the street couldn't find Australia on a map

Overheal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121194061#Comment_121194061

The point of the speaker is to vest the chamber's administrative powers in a single person ie, the presiding officer. The congress can squabble but the speaker puts the foot down on what business is, vested with the confirmation of the membership to do so, call votes, etc (with some notable exceptions, allegedly, ie. impeachment hearings which the OLC now argues must be done by full vote of the House etc -- to be fair, Article I explicitly says "The House of Representatives shall chuse [sic] their speaker and other officers; and shall have the sole Power of Impeachment" implying that the house by the same token (a full vote) has the sole power of impeachment, not their Speaker).

The Speaker Pro Tempore can't traditionally do a whole lot, other than do the motions to elect the next Speaker. However this SPT has already made political waves:

https://www.npr.org/2023/10/04/1203566052/pelosi-office-patrick-mchenry-speaker

banie01

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121193972#Comment_121193972

I had the original Dell XPS 17" I was working for Dell at the time (not in sales) and I was playing a lot of football manager at the time along with Crysis 2, But? I got the allocation signed off purely for needing a big screen 😉

It was louder than a 747 and I could probably use it as a space heater 😁

Nowadays, my laptop is still gaming capable but nowadays it's without the RGB disco show. Court room appropriate even.

Overheal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121194165#Comment_121194165

I haven't had my HP pavillion in nearly 15 years and I can still hear the high pitched whine. Like a mini jet engine. It played Crysis 1 at 4-12 frames per second and I crushed it. She doesn't strike me as an FPS gamer.