Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

Lemming

schmoo2k wrote: »

Apparently it is now the "EU's Brexit Deal":

That's some red, white, and blue washing right there ... revisionism at its gas-lighting finest.

BlitzKrieg

Lemming wrote: »

That's some red, white, and blue washing right there ... revisionism at its gas-lighting finest.

oh didnt you hear?

the daily mail says they warned us that this would happen but those remainers were just too stubborn so thats how the UK ended up with such a bad protocal

/s

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1380192932150530049

ancapailldorcha

It says a lot about the press here that a representative of one of the biggest papers in this country sees violence and immediately thinks to blame the people who didn't vote to damage a region with a turbulent history.

redcup342

schmoo2k wrote: »

Apparently it is now the "EU's Brexit Deal":

Looks pretty "oven ready" to me

Gael23

Will the death of Prince Philip inflame things more now?

Sam Russell

Gael23 wrote: »

Will the death of Prince Philip inflame things more now?

He is being buried not cremated.

Akrasia

Another night of rioting in NI last night, not that you’d know it from any of the media
12 nights in a row it seems is enough for loyalist sectarian violence to become normalized

Water cannons were used Thursday night, major police operations created a buffer at the flash points but there was still rioting and running battles with the police elsewhere

Things are at a knife edge now, and it could dissipate, or escalate. If anyone on either side gets seriously injured or killed, there could be a cycle of retaliation that drags more and more people into the conflict

The fact that many of the rioters are children is seriously dangerous

Gael23

Sam Russell wrote: »

He is being buried not cremated.

Will Liz be buried also when she pops her clogs?

Sam Russell

Gael23 wrote: »

Will Liz be buried also when she pops her clogs?

Well, she could ask her loyal subjects in NI to cool it and not throw petrol bombs at her police officers. Then again, she could have asked them to behave over the last 50 years, but she never did.

Answer to your question - ask her.

Mr.Nice Guy

BBC NI have a Spotlight programme at 9pm tonight which will feature, among others, the Taoiseach and Boris Johnson discussing Brexit, the NI protocol, the NI centenary, and a possible border poll.

LucidTalk were commissioned to do a series of polls that will be revealed later. Here's the result of one of them:

https://twitter.com/mandy_mcauley/status/1384570324621172739

Professor Moriarty

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

BBC NI have a Spotlight programme at 9pm tonight which will feature, among others, the Taoiseach and Boris Johnson discussing Brexit, the NI protocol, the NI centenary, and a possible border poll.

LucidTalk were commissioned to do a series of polls that will be revealed later. Here's the result of one of them:

https://twitter.com/mandy_mcauley/status/1384570324621172739

Odd way of reporting a poll. One could infer that 60% think that NI's formation should be celebrated and 52% see the creation of a land border as a positive development.

Fionn1952

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Odd way of reporting a poll. One could infer that 60% think that NI's formation should be celebrated and 52% see the creation of a land border as a positive development.

I think you've misread the tweet on the first point, and accidentally counted the don't knows and neutrals as seeing it as a positive on the second point there, chief.

Professor Moriarty

Fionn1952 wrote: »

I think you've misread the tweet on the first point, and accidentally counted the don't knows and neutrals as seeing it as a positive on the second point there, chief.

Have I? Can you explain how I've misread the first point? Can you show me where she quotes the number of DKs and neutrals?

Mr.Nice Guy

I'd imagine there are don't knows not mentioned. LucidTalk usually do comprehensive breakdowns on their twitter account, which I'm assuming they'll post once the programme ends.

Professor Moriarty

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I'd imagine there are don't knows not mentioned. LucidTalk usually do comprehensive breakdowns on their twitter account, which I'm assuming they'll post once the programme ends.

For sure. Problem with that tweet is context. Anyway, we will see.

Fionn1952

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Have I? Can you explain how I've misread the first point? Can you show me where she quotes the number of DKs and neutrals?

In Northern Ireland only 40% of people polled ⁦@BBCSpotlightNI⁩; think NI's formation should be celebrated.

The forty percent IS the positive sentiment; the number of people who think the formation should be celebrated. How could one infer that sixty percent of people think NI's formation should be celebrated based off a poll which says that only forty percent think that?

As for the second part, she doesn't quote figures for neutrals/don't knows.....but one can assume that some exist. LucidTalk polls have pretty much always included response options for those who are neutral/don't know. Even if we don't have the precise number available right now, it certainly wouldn't be a reasonable inference to say that absolutely everyone who doesn't believe that the formation of a land border was a negative automatically holds a strong enough opinion to the contrary to the extent that they would describe it as a positive....that would be a crude assumption rather than a reasonable inference.

Professor Moriarty

Fionn1952 wrote: »

The forty percent IS the positive sentiment; the number of people who think the formation should be celebrated. How could one infer that sixty percent of people think NI's formation should be celebrated based off a poll which says that only forty percent think that?

As for the second part, she doesn't quote figures for neutrals/don't knows.....but one can assume that some exist. LucidTalk polls have pretty much always included response options for those who are neutral/don't know. Even if we don't have the precise number available right now, it certainly wouldn't be a reasonable inference to say that absolutely everyone who doesn't believe that the formation of a land border was a negative automatically holds a strong enough opinion to the contrary to the extent that they would describe it as a positive....that would be a crude assumption rather than a reasonable inference.

Which is why I said one could infer. And why I said "For example". I was illustrating a point. Perhaps you misread.

Just two percentages completely out of context. She doesn't quote the questions verbatim. She doesn't quote the DKs. She doesn't quote any other percentages - e.g. how many disagreed. Which begs the question: Why not?

Fionn1952

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Which is why I said one could infer. And why I said "For example". I was illustrating a point. Perhaps you misread.

Just two percentages completely out of context. She doesn't quote the questions verbatim. She doesn't quote the DKs. She doesn't quote any other percentages - e.g. how many disagreed. Which begs the question: Why not?

You've said that one could infer that sixty percent of people support celebrating the formation of NI based on a tweet that explicitly states that forty percent of people support it. I highlighted it as I presume you have misread and think that forty percent do not support it. I really think you should re-read the original tweet as I think you're overlooking this in your rush to respond to me.

One could infer that everyone who doesn't think that the creation of a land border was a negative automatically thinks it is a positive, but that would be a very lazy inference, in other words, like I said a crude assumption. It would be just as reasonable an inference that absolutely everyone else was neutral/didn't know and actually 0% think it was a positive think....both could be inferred from the data, both are equally ridiculous.

I'm not trying to defend the accuracy of the statistics in the tweet, just pointing out that you've clearly misread the first part of the tweet, and you've made a poor and obviously incorrect inference on the second point (unless you'd argue that there isn't even so much as 1% who are neutral/don't know on the topic).

As for the, 'why not'.....I'd imagine that it's because it is a tweet trying to encourage people to watch the show, so they've plucked two figures to fit in the limited space allowed by the format that will generate enough conversation to encourage people to watch the show, which one would hope will cover more details on the underlying polling data than a single tweet can?

Mr.Nice Guy

Here's the breakdown on the centenary question:

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1384606532466356229

Quite remarkable that there's no majority support. And this is the verdict south of the border:

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1384606703065260037

Professor Moriarty

Fionn1952 wrote: »

You've said that one could infer that sixty percent of people support celebrating the formation of NI based on a tweet that explicitly states that forty percent of people support it. I highlighted it as I presume you have misread and think that forty percent do not support it. I really think you should re-read the original tweet as I think you're overlooking this in your rush to respond to me.

One could infer that everyone who doesn't think that the creation of a land border was a negative automatically thinks it is a positive, but that would be a very lazy inference, in other words, like I said a crude assumption. It would be just as reasonable an inference that absolutely everyone else was neutral/didn't know and actually 0% think it was a positive think....both could be inferred from the data, both are equally ridiculous.

I'm not trying to defend the accuracy of the statistics in the tweet, just pointing out that you've clearly misread the first part of the tweet, and you've made a poor and obviously incorrect inference on the second point (unless you'd argue that there isn't even so much as 1% who are neutral/don't know on the topic).

As for the, 'why not'.....I'd imagine that it's because it is a tweet trying to encourage people to watch the show, so they've plucked two figures to fit in the limited space allowed by the format that will generate enough conversation to encourage people to watch the show, which one would hope will cover more details on the underlying polling data than a single tweet can?

Nope. I've reread the tweet as you asked. My points remain. They are simply two percentages plucked out of context. Without context, their true importance remains hidden. Is it 40% agree with the statement and 15% disagree? Or is 40% agree and 45% disagree? It's a mystery.

As for "crude assumptions" the crudity of the tweet begs crude assumptions illustrations. Had she simply quoted the questions verbatim and the percentages of all the responses, then we would truly understand the relevance of the 40% and the 48%. And we could fully understand the point she was trying to make. And we wouldn't need to have this conversation.

Professor Moriarty

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Here's the breakdown on the centenary question:

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1384606532466356229

Quite remarkable that there's no majority support. And this is the verdict south of the border:

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1384606703065260037

QED.

Mr.Nice Guy

Wow. In NI, 48% support scrapping the protocol versus 46% for it to stay. The remainder unknown/neutral. Hard to see anything positive in the years to come based on that kind of split. Didn't expect it to be that bad.

10% want it scrapped in the south, versus 74% wanting it to remain.

Professor Moriarty

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Wow. In NI, 48% support scrapping the protocol versus 46% for it to stay. The remainder unknown/neutral. Hard to see anything positive in the years to come based on that kind of split. Didn't expect it to be that bad.

10% want it scrapped in the south, versus 74% wanting it to remain.

I think there will be some very surprising results from these polls. Regarding the protocol poll, with only 6% DKs, as you say, there isn't much room for manoeuvre.

FrancieBrady

The Protocol is a hindrance and is there because of Brexit, which the majority didn't want.

No surprise in that figure at all really.

Fionn1952

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Nope. I've reread the tweet as you asked. My points remain. They are simply two percentages plucked out of context. Without context, their true importance remains hidden. Is it 40% agree with the statement and 15% disagree? Or is 40% agree and 45% disagree? It's a mystery.

As for "crude assumptions" the crudity of the tweet begs crude assumptions illustrations. Had she simply quoted the questions verbatim and the percentages of all the responses, then we would truly understand the relevance of the 40% and the 48%. And we could fully understand the point she was trying to make. And we wouldn't need to have this conversation.

Let's try this again, we're getting bogged down on the semantics of what is and isn't a reasonable inference rather than the key part which was that you've got the numbers backwards on the first point of the tweet.

On the first point;

The tweet states that only forty percent of people polled think that the formation of NI [/b]should be[/b] celebrated.

You replied stating that based on this one could reasonably infer that sixty percent of the people polled think that the formation of NI should be celebrated.

The point I'm trying to make is even if we accept your standards for what is a reasonable inference one could not infer that sixty percent of people support a celebration of the formation of NI; the number who support celebrating it IS the number quoted in the tweet. The sixty percent that you're inferring from that tweet would be those who DO NOT support celebrating it.

The point I'm making is not around how reasonable the figures are, it is that you've misinterpreted the tweet and got the figures the wrong way round.

In arguing about the semantics of what would be a reasonable inference with eachother, I presume you've overlooked the part I'm actually trying to highlight to you, and you'll be kicking yourself.

Fionn1952

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Wow. In NI, 48% support scrapping the protocol versus 46% for it to stay. The remainder unknown/neutral. Hard to see anything positive in the years to come based on that kind of split. Didn't expect it to be that bad.

10% want it scrapped in the south, versus 74% wanting it to remain.

6% wiggle room with such close numbers certainly doesn't bode well for things just settling back down to normal any time soon. With those numbers, I think there's going to be backlash no matter what the outcome. Very concerning.

Mr.Nice Guy

On the border poll question in NI:

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1384612446850138115

And the verdict down south:

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1384612681685118979


Not all that different from previous polls we've seen on these subjects.

It was also revealed that majorities on both sides of the border expect NI to still be in the UK in 10 years, but also think it will leave within 25 years.

The result that surprised me most was the protocol question. I would have expected a large number of undecideds, but on the evidence of this poll, it turns out most have come to a settled decision on the matter.

Doesn't bode well for the next few years and likely means the next Stormont election will be all about this topic. If you're a business thinking about investing in NI, these results would make you reconsider sharpish.

Professor Moriarty

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Let's try this again, we're getting bogged down on the semantics of what is and isn't a reasonable inference rather than the key part which was that you've got the numbers backwards on the first point of the tweet.

On the first point;

The tweet states that only forty percent of people polled think that the formation of NI should be[/b] celebrated.

You replied stating that based on this one could reasonably infer that sixty percent of the people polled think that the formation of NI should be celebrated.
[/B]
The point I'm trying to make is even if we accept your standards for what is a reasonable inference one could not infer that sixty percent of people support a celebration of the formation of NI; the number who support celebrating it IS the number quoted in the tweet. The sixty percent that you're inferring from that tweet would be those who DO NOT support celebrating it.

The point I'm making is not around how reasonable the figures are, it is that you've misinterpreted the tweet and got the figures the wrong way round.

In arguing about the semantics of what would be a reasonable inference with eachother, I presume you've overlooked the part I'm actually trying to highlight to you, and you'll be kicking yourself.

On the highlighted point, you are technically correct. I left out the word 'not'. I would have thought that would have been obvious. But semantics as you say...

Fionn1952

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

On the highlighted point, you are technically correct. I left out the word 'not'. I would have thought that would have been obvious. But semantics as you say...

I genuinely was under the impression that you were misreading it and had the numbers arseways rather than a typo in your first post, that's why I kept reiterating a suggestion to re-read the tweet.....if that's the case, then this has all been a tremendous waste of time and we can just fob this off as a passive aggressive agreement that the tweet wasn't much use beyond drumming up a bit of interest in the show.

Professor Moriarty

Fionn1952 wrote: »

I genuinely was under the impression that you were misreading it and had the numbers arseways rather than a typo in your first post, that's why I kept reiterating a suggestion to re-read the tweet.....if that's the case, then this has all been a tremendous waste of time and we can just fob this off as a passive aggressive agreement that the tweet wasn't much use beyond drumming up a bit of interest in the show.

Agreed. Was good fun though.

Fionn1952

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Agreed. Was good fun though.

We do passive aggressive agreement spectacularly up my neck of the woods in fairness!

Professor Moriarty

Fionn1952 wrote: »

We do passive aggressive agreement spectacularly up my neck of the woods in fairness!

Sadly true!

Peregrinus

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Wow. In NI, 48% support scrapping the protocol versus 46% for it to stay. The remainder unknown/neutral. Hard to see anything positive in the years to come based on that kind of split. Didn't expect it to be that bad.

The question is pretty meaningless, though. "Scrapping the Protocol" is not a viable or deliverable programme. You can only make a meaningful decision about scrapping the Protocol if you have some idea of what alternative will be put in place to avoid a hard border.

(You'd think people would have learned that in the past five years. But no, apparently.)

redcup342

I think those opinion poll numbers will change rapidly as soon as people can move when the pandemic restrictions are lifted.

I.E. Once people with British Passports in NI realise that taking an Irish Passport give them a whole host of benefits regarding free movement.

As it stands to set yourself up in any EU Member state you are going to need a Apostilled Documents, a Certificate of Good Conduct from the PSNI, Photos and get your documents translated then pay someone to do all of the work as it will be in a different language to English (and money + a job before you go)

After all that you only have a right to remain and are not treated the same as everyone else.

Under the GFA you can just take an Irish Passport and circumvent all of that, people are going to realise how stupid the whole scenario, dare I say it even the hardcore ones loyal to the UK who were lied to by the UK Government

Fionn1952

redcup342 wrote: »

I think those opinion poll numbers will change rapidly as soon as people can move when the pandemic restrictions are lifted.

I.E. Once people with British Passports in NI realise that taking an Irish Passport give them a whole host of benefits regarding free movement.

As it stands to set yourself up in any EU Member state you are going to need a Apostilled Documents, a Certificate of Good Conduct from the PSNI, Photos and get your documents translated then pay someone to do all of the work as it will be in a different language to English (and money + a job before you go)

After all that you only have a right to remain and are not treated the same as everyone else.

Under the GFA you can just take an Irish Passport and circumvent all of that, people are going to realise how stupid the whole scenario, dare I say it even the hardcore ones loyal to the UK who were lied to by the UK Government

Sure half of the DUP are sitting with Irish passports now, and Paisley Jr was running workshops in his constituency to help people apply for them. The phrase, 'more loyal to the half crown' often hits too close to home for many.

FrancieBrady

redcup342 wrote: »

I think those opinion poll numbers will change rapidly as soon as people can move when the pandemic restrictions are lifted.

I.E. Once people with British Passports in NI realise that taking an Irish Passport give them a whole host of benefits regarding free movement.

As it stands to set yourself up in any EU Member state you are going to need a Apostilled Documents, a Certificate of Good Conduct from the PSNI, Photos and get your documents translated then pay someone to do all of the work as it will be in a different language to English (and money + a job before you go)

After all that you only have a right to remain and are not treated the same as everyone else.

Under the GFA you can just take an Irish Passport and circumvent all of that, people are going to realise how stupid the whole scenario, dare I say it even the hardcore ones loyal to the UK who were lied to by the UK Government

48% want the Protocol gone (for varying reasons it has to be stressed).

The Protocol is staying and will undoubtedly be a hindrance and a permanent result of Brexit.

If only there was a way to get rid of it permanently.

redcup342

FrancieBrady wrote: »

48% want the Protocol gone (for varying reasons it has to be stressed).

The Protocol is staying and will undoubtedly be a hindrance and a permanent result of Brexit.

If only there was a way to get rid of it permanently.

Well this is the thing, the Protocol is the best bandaid for Brexit. It is only a bandaid and will eventually have to come off.

Only 2 options after that:
1. UK joins the Customs Union.
2. Irish Reunification.

There is an option 3 (rejoin the EU) not happening.

yagan

redcup342 wrote: »

I think those opinion poll numbers will change rapidly as soon as people can move when the pandemic restrictions are lifted.

They'll still have the best of both worlds if a border poll doesn't happen for another generation.

I reckon if/when an Amazon.ie finally gets started which will accept accept payment from and delivery to Northern Ireland a lot of the protocol ruffles will dissipate.

It's actually what happens in the upcoming Scottish elections that will pull the focus off NI for a few months. A sound majority for Scottish independence parties would further erode unionist confidence in NI.

Charles Babbage

FrancieBrady wrote: »

48% want the Protocol gone (for varying reasons it has to be stressed).

The Protocol is staying and will undoubtedly be a hindrance and a permanent result of Brexit.

If only there was a way to get rid of it permanently.

48% want rid of it, but only 25% would support any particular alternative to it, so it is here to stay.

schmoo2k

yagan wrote: »

They'll still have the best of both worlds if a border poll doesn't happen for another generation.

I reckon if/when an Amazon.ie finally gets started which will accept accept payment from and delivery to Northern Ireland a lot of the protocol ruffles will dissipate.

It's actually what happens in the upcoming Scottish elections that will pull the focus off NI for a few months. A sound majority for Scottish independence parties would further erode unionist confidence in NI.

If exporters of pre-packaged food stuffs printed "not for resale outside of NI" on their packaging a lot of "ruffles" would dissipate...

yagan

schmoo2k wrote: »

If exporters of pre-packaged food stuffs printed "not for resale outside of NI" on their packaging a lot of "ruffles" would dissipate...

Would not the current UKNI label suffice?

I think the heart of the matter for unionists is that the protocol is seen as basically a victory against them, even though their support for Brexit brought it about.

London pretty much wrote off NI when it signed the Belfast Agreement and there's zero support in Tory heartlands for diverting money from England to man a hard EU/UK border in Ireland.

L1011

yagan wrote: »

Would not the current UKNI label suffice?

I think the heart of the matter for unionists is that the protocol is seen as basically a victory against them, even though their support for Brexit brought it about.

London pretty much wrote off NI when it signed the Belfast Agreement and there's zero support in Tory heartlands for diverting money from England to man a hard EU/UK border in Ireland.

UKNI marked stuff is meant to meet EU standards; the "not for sale outside NI" printing would be for GB produced, non standards compliant stuff that can be sold in NI but not leave it.

yagan

L1011 wrote: »

UKNI marked stuff is meant to meet EU standards; the "not for sale outside NI" printing would be for GB produced, non standards compliant stuff that can be sold in NI but not leave it.

I don't see what difference that would make as it would could be as easily interpreted as not for GB!

At least the UKNI recognises that NI is still part of the UK, even if many English don't feel it.

L1011

yagan wrote: »

I don't see what difference that would make as it would could be as easily interpreted as not for GB!

At least the UKNI recognises that NI is still part of the UK, even if many English don't feel it.

You aren't understanding the difference at all

The "for NI only" stuff is GB product that can be sold in NI but not elsewhere in the EU

The UKNI stuff is NI product that can be sold in NI, and GB, and the EU.

yagan

L1011 wrote: »

You aren't understanding the difference at all

The "for NI only" stuff is GB product that can be sold in NI but not elsewhere in the EU

The UKNI stuff is NI product that can be sold in NI, and GB, and the EU.

Isn't NI produce still under EU law? Any consumer could demand that a product not complying with EU standards be withdrawn and it would certainly be a field day for producers looking to knock out competitors who insist on it.

By the sounds of it the crux of the conflict is solving how both Taytos can peacefully coexist on the island.

L1011

yagan wrote: »

Isn't NI produce still under EU law? Any consumer could demand that a product not complying with EU standards be withdrawn and it would certainly be a field day for producers looking to knock out competitors who insist on it.

By the sounds of it the crux of the conflict is solving how both Taytos can peacefully coexist on the island.

Yes; but that is not the point at all of the need to have stuff marked as "for NI only". You really aren't getting the point here

Its about stuff made in Great Britain. And only that.

yagan

L1011 wrote: »

Yes; but that is not the point at all of the need to have stuff marked as "for NI only". You really aren't getting the point here

Its about stuff made in Great Britain. And only that.

Wouldn't the current UKGB label not suffice in that instance?

L1011

yagan wrote: »

Wouldn't the current UKGB label not suffice in that instance?

No. As there is still compliant food being produced with that on it.

Mr.Nice Guy

There was further poll info that didn't make the programme last night:

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1384617955200278529

I suspect the Brexit vote has a lot to do with the above.

redcup342

yagan wrote: »

They'll still have the best of both worlds if a border poll doesn't happen for another generation.

I reckon if/when an Amazon.ie finally gets started which will accept accept payment from and delivery to Northern Ireland a lot of the protocol ruffles will dissipate.

It's actually what happens in the upcoming Scottish elections that will pull the focus off NI for a few months. A sound majority for Scottish independence parties would further erode unionist confidence in NI.

If you have an Irish passport you have the best of both worlds anyway, no British passport needed. The Pro Brits would need both to remain British