Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

yagan

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

There was further poll info that didn't make the programme last night:

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1384617955200278529

I suspect the Brexit vote has a lot to do with the above.

Yes, and the fact that young people from unionist areas who go to uni in britain are less likely to return than their counterparts. Plus EU immigrants in Northern Ireland are more likely to view their situation on purely economic grounds.

yagan

L1011 wrote: »

No. As there is still compliant food being produced with that on it.

That sounds like a whole load of fuss that goes against the much vaunted protestant work ethnic that sees maximising markets for produce as gods will!

eire4

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

There was further poll info that didn't make the programme last night:

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1384617955200278529

I suspect the Brexit vote has a lot to do with the above.

I would say your probably right there. Next months Scottish Assembly elections will likely play another role in this trend towards reunification if as expected Scotland votes in clear fashion for independence.

Mr.Nice Guy

I was watching BBC NI's The View programme and they had some more polls. Some interesting findings:

Should a border poll be held within the next 5 years?

NI result

Yes, in next 5 years - 35%
Yes, not within next 5 years - 29%
No, never - 32%
Don't know - 2%

ROI result

Yes, in next 5 years - 37%
Yes, not within next 5 years - 44%
No, never - 12%
Don't know - 7%

If Scotland votes for independence in the next 5 years, what impact do you think this will have on NI's place within the UK?

NI result

60% - United Ireland more likely
2% - United Ireland less likely
35% - No difference
3% - Don't know

ROI result

64% - United Ireland more likely
3% - United Ireland less likely
27% - No difference
6% - Don't know

Has Brexit changed your mind on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland?

NI result

45% - Still support staying in the UK
32% - Still support a United Ireland
19% - Used to support NI staying in the UK, now support a United Ireland
3% - Don't know
1% - Used to support a United Ireland, now support staying in the UK

Quite surprised at the amount of movement to support for reunification. Suspected there would be some, but nearly a fifth is a potential game-changer.

They also had some interesting questions on whether there should be a new flag, anthem, NHS, and whether Stormont should be retained. Think this is the first time a mainstream poll has tackled this? Suspect it won't be the last time:

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1385356073901699072

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1385357212525211650

Not a lot of support in NI for retaining Stormont (it's slightly higher down south funnily enough). The NHS considered very important to the debate, and probably unionism's big trump card. A new anthem is considered important in the North; less support for that in the south, but the findings suggest the neutrals/don't knows could be won over to the idea.

The idea of a new flag looks to be a significant stumbling bloc. The findings up north suggest they want the issue on the table; in the south, it doesn't look like there's any appetite for that at all right now.

I like the tricolour but I would be in the minority in the above poll as I think it likely has to be changed in a UI. Nothing stopping people flying one in their own home, or in pubs or whatever, but I think for official ceremonies, diplomatic stuff etc. there would have to be something new created without any historical baggage attached.

dogbert27

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I was watching BBC NI's The View programme and they had some more polls. Some interesting findings:







Quite surprised at the amount of movement to support for reunification. Suspected there would be some, but nearly a fifth is a potential game-changer.

They also had some interesting questions on whether there should be a new flag, anthem, NHS, and whether Stormont should be retained. Think this is the first time a mainstream poll has tackled this? Suspect it won't be the last time:

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1385356073901699072

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1385357212525211650

Not a lot of support in NI for retaining Stormont (it's slightly higher down south funnily enough). The NHS considered very important to the debate, and probably unionism's big trump card. A new anthem is considered important in the North; less support for that in the south, but the findings suggest the neutrals/don't knows could be won over to the idea.

The idea of a new flag looks to be a significant stumbling bloc. The findings up north suggest they want the issue on the table; in the south, it doesn't look like there's any appetite for that at all right now.

I like the tricolour but I would be in the minority in the above poll as I think it likely has to be changed in a UI. Nothing stopping people flying one in their own home, or in pubs or whatever, but I think for official ceremonies, diplomatic stuff etc. there would have to be something new created without any historical baggage attached.

Could use the harp on the green. Would still be obvious to the world that it's Ireland.

Peregrinus

dogbert27 wrote: »

Could use the harp on the green. Would still be obvious to the world that it's Ireland.

A harp on a green field is already the arms (and flag) of Leinster. Plus, the choice of green might cause an issue.

A harp on a blue field is already the arms of Ireland and, as a flag or banner, is used as the presidential standard. It's also the basis on which Ireland is represented in the UK royal arms, so it's a symbolism that has a foot in both traditions, so to speak. That could become the national flag.

Sam Russell

Peregrinus wrote: »

A harp on a green field is already the arms (and flag) of Leinster. Plus, the choice of green might cause an issue.

A harp on a blue field is already the arms of Ireland and, as a flag or banner, is used as the presidential standard. It's also the basis on which Ireland is represented in the UK royal arms, so it's a symbolism that has a foot in both traditions, so to speak. That could become the national flag.

It is a pity because if a new flag was being designed (and the existing flag did not exist) then the design that would tend to be the 'correct' design would be a tricolour uniting the orange of the Unionist side and the Green of the nationalist persuasion, and a white bit in the middle to symbolise peace between them.

[A small note about our flag - India used the Irish tricolour (turned on its side) because India was the second nation to break from the Empire by force/revolution].

India has a spinning wheel in the white part. The white part of the current flag could be enhanced by a harp in the middle.

If it was needed to bring about a united Ireland, I think most would concede it.

As for the NHS, I think that we are going that way anyway with Slaintecare.

We could solve the Stormont question (if it is a question) by moving the Dail up there - permanently.

Nothing will persuade the DUP types to join a UI, but many Unionists need to be persuaded and that requires them to be confident that they will be not only better off but welcome and appreciated. That is a biggie.

L1011

Sam Russell wrote: »

[A small note about our flag - India used the Irish tricolour (turned on its side) because India was the second nation to break from the Empire by force/revolution].

Complete myth, not a shred of truth to that.

The Indian flag predates their independence and the colours are of relevance to India.

Fionn1952

L1011 wrote: »

Complete myth, not a shred of truth to that.

The Indian flag predates their independence and the colours are of relevance to India.

Although purely coincidental, the colours were chosen with similar reasoning to that behind the Irish tricolour apparently. I think they've retroactively come up with a few other descriptions for what they represent, but representing peace between Hindus and Muslims was behind it.

Professor Moriarty

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Although purely coincidental, the colours were chosen with similar reasoning to that behind the Irish tricolour apparently. I think they've retroactively come up with a few other descriptions for what they represent, but representing peace between Hindus and Muslims was behind it.

In that vein, many parts of the Indian constitution are taken from the Irish constitution.

BlitzKrieg

Sam Russell wrote: »

.

We could solve the Stormont question (if it is a question) by moving the Dail up there - permanently.

Nothing will persuade the DUP types to join a UI, but many Unionists need to be persuaded and that requires them to be confident that they will be not only better off but welcome and appreciated. That is a biggie.

Or we could have Stormont take the place of the 2nd house instead of the Seanad. There is a desire to rework it into something better then what it is currently. I mean we voted against getting rid of it, but not by a lot and my impression was that people wanted rid of what was there currently and replace it with something better but they were not in favour of just right out removing it.

But if Stormont became the seat for a more democratic Seanad it would be a good show of bringing the North into a United Ireland politically.

eire4

Personally the 4 provinces flag has always been my favourite Irish flag. That would certainly represent everyone in a reunified Ireland.

Fionn1952

eire4 wrote: »

Personally the 4 provinces flag has always been my favourite Irish flag. That would certainly represent everyone in a reunified Ireland.

A bit busy for a national flag though.

eire4

Fionn1952 wrote: »

A bit busy for a national flag though.

Some would say that. My personal view would be A as I said it represents everyone in Ireland and B from an international standpoint we would have a really unique flag that would standout and invite people to ask questions about Ireland and what it means which is all positive IMHO. But I can see your viewpoint there as well. I would just see the above pros as outweighing that.

Mr.Nice Guy

I reckon a design featuring the shamrock could be the way to go. It's visually arresting, and one of the few symbols that all traditions on the island have used. It appears on loyalist murals and the Duchess of Cambridge usually gives one out to the Royal Irish Regiment on Patrick's Day. Canada came up with an iconic flag using their national leaf symbol, and I find a shamrock to be better looking than a Maple leaf.

BonnieSituation

Fionn1952 wrote: »

A bit busy for a national flag though.

It fails basic vexillology tests on one hand. But it succinctly represents the country without representing the politics. And that's key. The symbolism is perfect.

I'd stand behind it.

Dyr

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I was watching BBC NI's The View programme and they had some more polls. Some interesting findings:







Quite surprised at the amount of movement to support for reunification. Suspected there would be some, but nearly a fifth is a potential game-changer.

They also had some interesting questions on whether there should be a new flag, anthem, NHS, and whether Stormont should be retained. Think this is the first time a mainstream poll has tackled this? Suspect it won't be the last time:

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1385356073901699072

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1385357212525211650

Not a lot of support in NI for retaining Stormont (it's slightly higher down south funnily enough). The NHS considered very important to the debate, and probably unionism's big trump card. A new anthem is considered important in the North; less support for that in the south, but the findings suggest the neutrals/don't knows could be won over to the idea.

The idea of a new flag looks to be a significant stumbling bloc. The findings up north suggest they want the issue on the table; in the south, it doesn't look like there's any appetite for that at all right now.

I like the tricolour but I would be in the minority in the above poll as I think it likely has to be changed in a UI. Nothing stopping people flying one in their own home, or in pubs or whatever, but I think for official ceremonies, diplomatic stuff etc. there would have to be something new created without any historical baggage attached.

You could easily just reword amhrán na bhfiann to something less green, obviously us lot could still sing the original lyrics as Gaelige, Irish solution to an Irish problem

I've already designed a cracker new flag that the loyal brethern will apporove of. I'll make it available to the state in the event of a border poll

L1011

The original lyrics are in English. The Irish is a translation

Dyr

L1011 wrote: »

The original lyrics are in English. The Irish is a translation

Well aware that Peadar Kearney wrote the Soldiers Song in English and the national anthem is just the chorus of the original song translated into Irish, but thanks for the pedantic correction.

Pete_Cavan

Regardless of what the poll showed, I'd say a sizable majority of people south of the border would be against a united Ireland if it meant changing our flag and national anthem. Many people aren't too bothered about them in the course of their daily lives but if they were under threat, I think people would rally behind them and oppose any change.

I don't think they would have to be changed anyway. If a united Ireland were to come about, it would be because continuing with the NI statelet is no longer an option, a big contributing but not sole factor being the UK no longer existing (Scotland having left the Union and English nationalism then pulling the plug entirely). There is no point in thinking about these things in the context of today, by definition if a UI is happening it is because fundamental changes have taken place.

L1011

Bambi wrote: »

Well aware that Peadar Kearney wrote the Soldiers Song in English and the national anthem is just the chorus of the original song translated into Irish, but thanks for the pedantic correction.

How is it pedantic if someones post mentions "the original lyrics as Gaelige", which would suggest they believe it to have been written in Irish, when it wasn't?

Its pointing out what appears to be a giant error of fact, not something small and irrelevant.

Mr.Nice Guy

Looks like Arlene Foster's tenure as DUP leader may be coming to an end.

https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1387062909935755265

https://twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1387068269698367490

Not a fan of hers at all and I'll shed no tears for her departing but if those are the reasons why she's getting canned, looks like the party is ready to lurch even further to the right.

Larbre34

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Not a fan of hers at all and I'll shed no tears for her departing but if those are the reasons why she's getting canned, looks like the party is ready to lurch even further to the right.

Yes, she has been entirely useless. Utterly mugged and humiliated by the Johnson Tory Government, flacid and reactionary in all other respects.

Will be interesting to see how the factions break down within the party, between far right and 'utterly bonkers bible basher fell off the right wing they went so far right'. Also between young and old and pragmatic concensus builders versus Paisleyite, not that there are many of the former.

You'd have to imagine that members of the Lords are beyond contention, perhaps an MP leader with an MLA deputy would be the best balance for them in terms of the importance of London to their fate. Many a Jeffrey Donaldson and an Emma Little Pengelly type ticket could prevail?

However if a far right leader is elected, its not a bad thing for Ireland and Irish nationalism as the DUP would only make themselves less and less relevant to younger and progressive voters in NI in that event.

Fionn1952

All with time for a new leader to be installed with enough lead time to play the super hardline card long enough to draw back the people who've said they'll never vote for them again. Bad news for TUV.....I won't shed too many tears.

L1011

Little Pengelley is not elected to anything so unlikely to be in any position

Mr.Nice Guy

Sammy Wilson has wanted the leadership in the past but I can't imagine they'd be daft enough to give it to him. He'd be a gift to his opponents.

If she goes, I reckon Donaldson and Dodds will be the most likely replacements. Paul Givan could be an outside bet if they want to try and target younger unionist voters.

FrancieBrady

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Sammy Wilson has wanted the leadership in the past but I can't imagine they'd be daft enough to give it to him. He'd be a gift to his opponents.

If she goes, I reckon Donaldson and Dodds will be the most likely replacements. Paul Givan could be an outside bet if they want to try and target younger unionist voters.

Nigel or Diane Doods?

Larbre34

L1011 wrote: »

Little Pengelley is not elected to anything so unlikely to be in any position

Quite right. It was Lockhart I was thinking of.

BonnieSituation

That's rather wonderful. Unionism is eating itself even quicker than we'd hoped.

FrancieBrady

Letter says they want rid of Arlene and lord Dodds.

Mr.Nice Guy

Surprised Dodds is on the chopping block too. By most accounts, he was the real authority during the confidence-and-supply days.

Wonder is the DUP strategy now to make a clean break from the leadership that were responsible for the protocol, and put in a new leader without a direct association with it. Make Foster and co. the scapegoats for it rather than the party overall, and hope the unionist community buys into that narrative.

weemcd

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Surprised Dodds is on the chopping block too. By most accounts, he was the real authority during the confidence-and-supply days.

Wonder is the DUP strategy now to make a clean break from the leadership that were responsible for the protocol, and put in a new leader without a direct association with it. Make Foster and co. the scapegoats for it rather than the party overall, and hope the unionist community buys into that narrative.

I think you're spot on here on the DUP narrative. If that somehow stops the rot, remains to be seen. They had to do something, Arlene's cabal were extremely high risk going into this next election. It will be a hot summer in Northern Ireland, with lockdowns seemingly coming to an end right into a highly charged marching season, I see the prospect of plenty of trouble ahead...

J Mysterio

https://twitter.com/dmcbfs/status/1387142118150397954?s=20

Peregrinus

Larbre34 wrote: »

Yes, she has been entirely useless. Utterly mugged and humiliated by the Johnson Tory Government, flacid and reactionary in all other respects.

Well, she failed, yes. She was the leader who just might have been able to dragoon the party into a not-actually-suicidal position on Brexit. She failed. But I think it's unfair to ascribe this to her been "mugged and humiliated by the Johnson Tory Government"; the cozying up to the Tory looney right was driven by elements of her own party; they forced it on her.

Larbre34 wrote: »

Will be interesting to see how the factions break down within the party, between far right and 'utterly bonkers bible basher fell off the right wing they went so far right'. Also between young and old and pragmatic concensus builders versus Paisleyite, not that there are many of the former.

You'd have to imagine that members of the Lords are beyond contention, perhaps an MP leader with an MLA deputy would be the best balance for them in terms of the importance of London to their fate. Many a Jeffrey Donaldson and an Emma Little Pengelly type ticket could prevail?

By and large, its the DUP Westminster MPs who who have driven the disastrous alignment with the looney wing of the Tory party. I think choosing a leader whose a Westminster MP and responsive to other DUP MP would be a disaster; it would risk doubling down on an already catastrophic position. Fortunately the electorate for the partly leadership is dominated by MLAs, not MPs, and we might hope there are some who can see the problems with a "let's bend over for the Tory right" policy.

Larbre34 wrote: »

However if a far right leader is elected, its not a bad thing for Ireland and Irish nationalism as the DUP would only make themselves less and less relevant to younger and progressive voters in NI in that event.

But they can do a lot of damage in the meantime.

Dyr

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Surprised Dodds is on the chopping block too. By most accounts, he was the real authority during the confidence-and-supply days.

Wonder is the DUP strategy now to make a clean break from the leadership that were responsible for the protocol, and put in a new leader without a direct association with it. Make Foster and co. the scapegoats for it rather than the party overall, and hope the unionist community buys into that narrative.

You'd assume the want a clean break from the past so they can go after the protocol as a sell out, a betrayal, never never never and so forth while ignoring that they're the reason its in place

There was never a shortage of brass neck in Unionism

Leroy42

TBF, they are not the reason it is in place, although they certainly played a part.

TM's GB wide deal was instantly attacked by the ERG, Johnson resigned over it as did Davis. The DUP were just the excuse they used to justify their demand for a hard brexit, since before the vote nobody had been calling for it.

There is no doubt they were played, and I am not saying they should have any sympathy but its isn't totally because of them.

Peregrinus

It isn't totally because of them, but they were wholly supportive of, and co-operative in, the ERG strategy which led to it. They absolutely cannot complain about it and, if they think it is a bad thing, they need to examine their own responsiblity for it and draw some painful (for them) conclusions.

While ditching the current leadership could be part of that process, as it's shaping up right now it doesn't look to me as if it is. This doesn't seem to be a change of heart, so much as an exercise to deflect the need for a change of heart.

If they are wise they will choose a new leadership which recognised the disastrous course they have been on, and steers the party back towards sanity. If they are unwise, they will choose leaders to the right of Foster who will cling harder than ever to the Tory Right and to Hard Brexitry. I fear they will not be wise.

seamus

This seems to be impression everyone is getting at the moment. That the DUP is slowly losing its "moderate" supporters, which is having the effect of pushing the party further and further to the right.

Long-term it's probably a good thing as it will fracture unionism into something that might be more centrist and agreeable if multiple parties are in the driving seat.

Short-term though, a "harder" DUP will make it very difficult to make any progress and might fan the flames of violence.

BonnieSituation

Peregrinus wrote: »

It isn't totally because of them, but they were wholly supportive of, and co-operative in, the ERG strategy which led to it. They absolutely cannot complain about it and, if they think it is a bad thing, they need to examine their own responsiblity for it and draw some painful (for them) conclusions.

While ditching the current leadership could be part of that process, as it's shaping up right now it doesn't look to me as if it is. This doesn't seem to be a change of heart, so much as an exercise to deflect the need for a change of heart.

If they are wise they will choose a new leadership which recognised the disastrous course they have been on, and steers the party back towards sanity. If they are unwise, they will choose leaders to the right of Foster who will cling harder than ever to the Tory Right and to Hard Brexitry. I fear they will not be wise.

Wisdom is not in the arsenal of Unionist politics.

Chips Lovell

I get the impression that anyone wanting to win the leadership will have to promise that they'll get rid of or at least dilute the Northern Ireland protocol. Which is something they won't be able to deliver. They've managed to paint themselves into a corner on this.

ancapailldorcha

seamus wrote: »

This seems to be impression everyone is getting at the moment. That the DUP is slowly losing its "moderate" supporters, which is having the effect of pushing the party further and further to the right.

Long-term it's probably a good thing as it will fracture unionism into something that might be more centrist and agreeable if multiple parties are in the driving seat.

Short-term though, a "harder" DUP will make it very difficult to make any progress and might fan the flames of violence.

I don't know. I'd say there'll be a fair niche for splinter parties offering a purer form of Unionism without the baggage of the NIP.

Unionism is ultimately an ideology in decline and it's unlikely to moderate itself as a result. I'm not really sure what moderates can achieve given the political turmoil wrought by the DUP.

Sam Russell

RTE reporting Arlene resigning as DUP leader now and as First Minister at the end of June.

Nody

Sam Russell wrote: »

RTE reporting Arlene resigning as DUP leader now and as First Minister at the end of June.

Bring in a more pure person who votes for gay therapy treatment to remain and will flail against the northern Ireland protocol more believing ERB and London gives a damn.... No better way to ensure a more moderate middle ground party can gain ground.

J Mysterio

Sam Russell wrote: »

RTE reporting Arlene resigning as DUP leader now and as First Minister at the end of June.

"The leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Arlene Foster is to stand down as party leader on May 28th, and as First Minister of Northern Ireland at the end of June."

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/arlene-foster-to-stand-down-as-north-s-first-minister-and-dup-leader-1.4550156?mode=amp

Mr.Nice Guy

There's a certain irony in that she stubbornly resisted for so long the pressure to step back over the RHI scandal, yet had she done so at the time, she probably would have avoided all the flak that came over Brexit. Dodds probably would have taken over from her and he'd be carrying the can over the protocol. Had this chain of events occurred, unionists might today be calling for her return, as opposed to now calling for her to go.

I don't see impressive performers in her potential replacements. I wonder could this go the way of Scotland, where unionist fortunes have taken a tumble since Ruth Davidson left frontline politics. What's even worse from a NI unionist perspective is that there is seemingly little to no appetite for any kind of progressive politics, so the ability to reach out to younger voters looks increasingly remote.

View

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

There's a certain irony in that she stubbornly resisted for so long the pressure to step back over the RHI scandal, yet had she done so at the time, she probably would have avoided all the flak that came over Brexit. Dodds probably would have taken over from her and he'd be carrying the can over the protocol. Had this chain of events occurred, unionists might today be calling for her return, as opposed to now calling for her to go.

I don't see impressive performers in her potential replacements. I wonder could this go the way of Scotland, where unionist fortunes have taken a tumble since Ruth Davidson left frontline politics. What's even worse from a NI unionist perspective is that there is seemingly little to no appetite for any kind of progressive politics, so the ability to reach out to younger voters looks increasingly remote.

The increase in support for the Alliance party would point to an appetite for more progressive politics in NI. That increase has largely been in constituencies which traditionally return unionist MPs rather than nationalist ones, so it is by no means a cross-community movement.

20silkcut

How many high profile political careers have been destroyed or severely distorted by brexit at this stage?

David Cameron
Theresa may
Dominic grieve
John bercow
Arlene foster

to name but a few

Detritus70

20silkcut wrote: »

How many high profile political careers have been destroyed or severely distorted by brexit at this stage?

David Cameron
Theresa may
Dominic grieve
John bercow
Arlene foster

to name but a few

It's very strange and I don't understand how this works.
Brexit is like Donald Trump, many people seem to be more than happy to throw themselves under a bus for a messed up ideology that benefits absolutely no one except a few ultra rich people.
It's like following political dogma is not just a matter of following the party whip, but sacrificing yourself for a cause with absolutely no reward.
This is comic book grade stuff right there

weemcd

Detritus70 wrote: »

It's very strange and I don't understand how this works.
Brexit is like Donald Trump, many people seem to be more than happy to throw themselves under a bus for a messed up ideology that benefits absolutely no one except a few ultra rich people.
It's like following political dogma is not just a matter of following the party whip, but sacrificing yourself for a cause with absolutely no reward.
This is comic book grade stuff right there

Absolute weapons grade zealotry. That if you somehow "believe enough" in something, dismissing all fact and reason, that paradise awaits.

You see it with Trumpism, Brexit, Johnson's strange malaise he's walked the UK into (which might be wearing thin now, but Johnson remained quite popular through every one of his disasters.) You see it with Covid denial, anti masking, anti vax. An immunity to facts. Fascinating.

ancapailldorcha

Detritus70 wrote: »

It's very strange and I don't understand how this works.
Brexit is like Donald Trump, many people seem to be more than happy to throw themselves under a bus for a messed up ideology that benefits absolutely no one except a few ultra rich people.
It's like following political dogma is not just a matter of following the party whip, but sacrificing yourself for a cause with absolutely no reward.
This is comic book grade stuff right there

It's because once a demographic sees an individual as being "one of us", there's very little said individual can do to incur their ire. There's a reason that Arlene Foster was able to hang on after the RHI scandal and it's the same thing that's protected Boris Johnson, Donald Trump, etc.

It's nonsense of course but it needs to be understood by those who wish for change.